After opening with a barrage of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Freshwater Strategy and Roy Morgan, the New South Wales state election has been marked by complete silence on the public polling front. Nor has the campaign had much to offer in the way of excitement, beyond the usual procession of quickly forgotten promises and social media controversies involving obscure candidates.
Which leaves us with:
• Brad Norington of The Australian reports that Labor is “increasingly confident”, while recognising that they may gain only six of the nine seats required to get them all the way to a majority. Doing so would likely require Riverstone and Parramatta, which are rated merely as “doable”. Should they fall short, Ben Raue at The Tally Room lays out the scenarios for a hung parliament.
• Teal independent Pittwater candidate Jacqui Scruby has filed a complaint over Liberal Party signs alerting voters to the fact that they only need number one box, arguing they are made to appear as official rather than party political announcements. The signs do have a small Liberal logo on the bottom right, but it is alleged they are being positioned so as to obscure it. The complaint echoes that against Chinese language Liberal signs used in Melbourne at the 2019 election, which the Federal Court ruled found deceptive in their adoption of the Australian Electoral Commission’s white-and-purple colour scheme.
• The Liberals have registered two sets of how-to-vote cards for Balmain, Newtown and Summer Hill, one recommending a first preference for the Liberal candidate only, the other a preference to Greens ahead of Labor.
• The Coalition has been getting the worst of the routine election campaign parade of social media indiscretions from candidates in unwinnable seats. The latest case is Bill Burst in Maroubra, who took to Facebook to voice commonly heard right-wing opinions on climate change and the treatment of COVID.
• The Sydney Morning Herald has published breakdowns from its Resolve Strategic poll of three weeks ago by three age cohorts, showing Labor on 39%, the Coalition on 28% and the Greens on 17% among those aged 18 to 34; Labor on 41%, the Coalition on 26% and the Greens on 14% among those 35 to 54; and Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 41% and the Greens on 3% among those 55 and over.
• I had an article in Crikey this week on the growing problem the Liberals face from right-wing minor parties poaching votes from them, such voters overwhelmingly following the practice encouraged by Liberal election signs in allowing their votes to exhausted after the first preference.