Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in NSW

Indications from two pollsters of a tightening contest in New South Wales.

The Australian brings us Newspoll voting intention results for New South Wales showing Labor’s lead at 52-48, which is notably narrower than other state polling of the last few months. The last state voting intention poll from Newspoll, in September, had it at 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 36% (down four) and Greens 12% (steady). Dominic Perrottet is up three on approval to 50% and steady on on disapproval at 41%, while Chris Minns is down one to 41% and up six to 33%. Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 39-35 to 43-33. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1014.

It so happens that a Roy Morgan poll this week also had it at 52-48, although this release continues the pollster’s odd habit of releasing its results long after the survey period, which in this case was in January. The primary votes were Coalition 35% (up one-and-a-half from December), Labor 32.5% (down one), Greens 9.5% (down two-and-a-half) and One Nation 6.5% (up two). The poll had a sample of 1147, with the precise survey dates not provided.

Stay tuned for my overdue state election guide, which will hopefully be along some time this week.

UPDATE (Freshwater Strategy): Now a Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review has a slight narrowing in Labor’s two-party lead since its last poll in October, from 54-46 to 53-47. Both major parties are up two on the primary vote, Labor to 39% and the Coalition to 37%, with the Greens down one to 10% and independents steady on 5%. The poll records a striking turn in Dominic Perrottet’s on preferred premier, on which he now leads 46-34 after trailing 41-38 last time. There was apparently a further set of questions in which respondents were asked if they were considering voting for or could be persuaded to vote for the various political players in turn, which “showed the Liberals lifting 7 points, Labor steady and a stark collapse in support for Climate 200, which dropped 8 points to 31 per cent”. As usual, issue salience questions found the cost of living head and shoulders above other concerns. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1247.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

143 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in NSW”

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  1. Daniel Bsays:
    Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 9:41 pm
    On these numbers $3.60 for a Coalition govt seems generous from my view across the Murray.
    1. Perrottet is a solid media performer who projects competence (in contrast with Gladys-in-the-Headlights), and seems to have managed to distance his government from past scandals.
    2. NSW has historically held onto tired old governments for an extra term.
    3. In recent decades voters have tended to balance federal governments of one colour with state/territory governments of the other.

    Still think the Coalition are underdogs, but I’d have them around $2.70.

    Your point 1: DoPe solid media performer. Ha ha ha……
    When you are not tough questions about NSW LNP government scandals you can be solid media performer.
    Your point 2: That extra term is current term. NSW LNP did a neat trick on NSW people by changing leaders mid-term in each and every term they were elected since 2011 and behaved as if as that government is a new government.
    Your point 3: Wrong. Proof of that is Victorian State in November 2022.

  2. Ven

    I’m going to credit you with mistaken identity (the alternative is that you have inexplicably made something up about me with no foundation, as I’ve done no such thing as you say).

  3. dont see how perottit is a good media performer when ever he is asked a difficult question he cuts the pres conference short and leaves the room his brothers aremmissing and media are no longer interested at least labours adds are getting better running the negative privatisation adds on tv now as well as social media a lot better then the fresh start adds

  4. Ven, thank you for recognising I’m not Moderate! I’m not as rusted on to the ALP as many on this site, and I’m sometimes critical of aspects of ALP policy, or occasionally approving of an LNP policy. But I never have the LNP higher on my ballot paper than the ALP. And I would never abuse another poster just because he had a different opinion to mine.

    The SMH has an article on its website which suggests a new poll has Labor slightly increasing its lead in NSW, despite rising approval numbers for Perrottet. Unfortunately I can’t open the article, by my usual trick of just closing and reopening my browser. Can anyone open this article?

  5. Newcastle Moderate

    I tried this morning to open it on an in private page which normally works, but that failed as well.

    The graphs suggest 53-47, maybe?

  6. Resolve has Labor at 38% and the Coalition at 32%, it doesn’t provide a 2PP but I’d say that’s roughly 56:44. Sample size is 800.

    Resolve polling at the State level has consistently shown much stronger numbers for Labor. Newspoll, Morgan and Freshwater all have Labor at 52/53 which feels about right to me.

  7. According to the Guardian story the Resolve poll has the independents at 15% as well, much higher than Newspoll. If true that can’t be great for the Libs

    Edit: Freshwater rather than Newspoll. Anyway I was doubtful of a collapse of Teal support against an incumbent LNP government, despite Matt Kean(!)

  8. If Labor has selected a candidate for Epping (Perrotet’s electorate) yet, I am unable to find any details. Does anyone have this information?

  9. The danger for the Libs is Teals winning Willoughby, Pittwater and Wakehurst.
    Do the Libs and their media mates over at Newscorp have a dirt file on Minns, a la what was done to Michael Daley 4 years ago?

  10. Bennelong Lurker: the Labor candidate for Epping is Alan Mascarenhus, who has run before in a state election from memory. No Labor candidate picked yet for Wahroonga, my seat.

  11. The question of attack material on Minns is interesting. With his past in Head Office he must have internal enemies, including ones who are feeling badly aggrieved. As such, if there is anything usable it should come out.

  12. Thanks, Evan.
    Name sounds familiar.Will contact him with a modest financial contribution. Health and age preclude offering other support.

    Edit: deleted 2 superfluous words.

  13. How reliable are the polls showing the radical reversal of Perrottet’s approval ratings/preferred Premier? Is Murdoch trying the same thing he/they did in Victoria? (ie. publishing BS polling figures to hurt Labor?) I can’t remember such a big jump/reversal in approval ratings in Oz politics, without a major scandal or emergency.

  14. Back in 2013, Chris Minns received $5,000 to cover personal expenses related to the 2013 election campaign. This was part of a donation of $100,000 given to Chris Bowen, from a Chinese community organisation in Sydney run by a businessman called Frank Chou. Frank Chou was alleged to have close links to the Chinese Communist Party. If the LNP are going to run a last-minute smear campaign against Minns, I think that will be it. Mind you, none of this is secret, Minns has been open about it, it’s been raised in the media a number of times, and the donation was apparently legal. And the LNP has also received plenty of donations from dodgy sources. But to my mind it’s not a good look for Minns-I wonder if that donation would be legal under today’s foreign interference laws.

    Edited to correct dates.

  15. For those asking about candidates in various seats, the following link would be useful
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_2023_New_South_Wales_state_election.

    No Labor candidates yet in Wahroonga, Cronulla, Oxley, Murray, whereas a heap of Labor seats in Sydney as yet have no preselected Liberal candidates, and no Liberal candidate in Kiama either(which makes me think that Perrottet will run dead there and preference Gareth Ward).
    The new Labor candidate in Fairfield has a huge CV and bio, looks like a quality pick – Mark Saliba.

  16. Bennelong Lurker: Happy old mate to be of service. I live in Thornleigh in the Wahroonga electorate, so probably not that far from you.
    Interesting fact about the seat of Epping – most of it in the Federal election last year voted Labor, 2 party preferred terms anyway. If Perrottet wasn’t the Liberal sitting member, Labor might have put some more effort into your electorate?

  17. Evan,
    I’m in Beecroft, in the part cut off by the M2 and transferred federally to Bennelong prior to 2007, and to Parramatta LGA in the Council restructuring. In other words my area is sometimes seen as being “below the salt” by the true believers in leafy Beecroft.
    I get out very rarely these days but my sense is there is less of a desire around here to get rid of Perrotet than there was of Morrison which perhaps explains the lower level of activity by Labor in the electorate. Some locals take pride in the fact that Perrotet resides locally in Beecroft and Epping is not seen as marginal.

    Edit: Slghtly reworded final sentence.

  18. Epping on federal figures across mainly Bennelong and Parramatta mainly is very marginal of not an alp. Majority
    It is assumed by all myself included that it will be retained by the premier. But by all rights this federal figure should have been much more liberal.

  19. I can’t get past the “subscriber only” pay wall on SMH, but this explainer article has an interactive chart with the latest polling numbers (and can be accessed using the usual “incognito mode” method).

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/what-s-different-about-this-nsw-election-20230213-p5ck3j.html

    Something I’ve not seen others explore is the massive difference in primary vote and preferred premier between male and female respondents. Is this gender divide even more pronounced than at the federal election?

    Primary Vote
    Male: 35 LNP 34 ALP
    Female: 29 LNP 41 ALP
    Combined: 32 LNP 38 ALP

    Preferred Premier
    Male: 44 Perrottet 33 Minns
    Female: 32 Perrottet 34 Minns
    Combined: 38 Perrottet 34 Minns

  20. The media narrative that Dom is building new metros is not supported by the facts. He has said they will fund a business case study. Thats it. On this narrative the latest business study for high speed rail will mean that the Libs are building it if the media is to be believed.

  21. Mick,

    I’m not across electorate statistics but “the vibe” I get in my small neighbourhood (ten homes) indicates that at least three households that voted “antiMorrison” Labor federally will vote Liberal on 25th…. but we are very much an aged/aging demographic here. I have no idea how this trend might play out in the wider Epping electorate. I’ll keep my fingers crossed and refrain from further comment on matters I know little about.

  22. Bennelong Lurker: I know your part of Beecroft very well. Sorry you can’t get out much at the moment, that would be frustrating. As for the seat of Epping, you would naturally expect that Perrottet will retain it easily, and the fact that Labor have not picked a candidate until now tells me they know they have no chance of denting Dom’s margin, so they will use their resources instead in Ryde and Parramatta.
    Here in the seat of Wahroonga, Alistair Henskens has a huge margin, ditto for Matt Kean in Hornsby. Labor is lucky in these parts if it beats the Greens on primary votes

  23. Watson Watch: thanks for the info about Oxley

    Alexandra Smith in today’s SMH argues Perrottet is the victim of destabilisation and internal hits from his own side and any election loss on March 25 can be blamed on that. Gosh, the press gallery in Sydney are a shocker, no idea of the many areas in which this government has pissed off people over the last 10 years, nah for them it’s all about what a good bloke Dom is and how dare the punters not recognise that.

  24. @Evan – there is a Labor candidate in Wahroonga – just not on the website yet.

    Now do me a favour and cease saying there their is a Teal candidate in Willoughby – because there isn’t.

  25. so alixandra smith gives no evidence that people are undermining perottit maybi it was some one linked with robyn prston that under mind peter poulos and then there is ray williams and the hawke faction under mining perottits allies on hills cowncil

  26. Ven, in response to my point [In recent decades voters have tended to balance federal governments of one colour with state/territory governments of the other]: “Your point 3: Wrong. Proof of that is Victorian State in November 2022.”

    Do you understand the word “tend”? It means a generalisation. The idea is you could take all state & territory election results of the past, say, 30 years, and count the results that went in favour of the party of the incumbent federal government versus those that went against. My point is that more results have gone against the federal government than for. You have simply identified one result in the “for” column.

  27. Anyway, here’s some data to back up my claim which some of Labor cheerleaders on here seem very keen to deny:

    State and Territory election results since the beginning of 1993, by state:

    WA: 8 elections – 1 with the incumbent federal party, 7 against.
    SA: 8 elections – 3 with, 5 against.
    NT: 8 – 2, 6
    QLD: 10 – 2, 8
    NSW: 7 – 3, 4
    ACT: 8 – 3, 5
    VIC: 8 – 2, 6
    TAS: 8 – 5, 3

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Australian_elections

    Total: out of 65 state and territory election results from 1993 onwards, 21 have gone with the incumbent federal party/parties and 44 have gone against.

    Case closed.

    Reminder: psephology is the objective study of elections and voting, irrespective of your personal leanings. Wanting a certain result doesn’t make it any more or less likely.

  28. While presenting yourself as a bit of an outsider to your own party that’s been in Government for 12 years is undoubtedly smart politics, it’s quite offensive to the ol’ intelligence when it’s the ultimate party hack insider doing it.

  29. david saliba in fairfield seems like a strong candadate former police officer staffer army officer he ran backed buy bowen but lost in preselection in 2018

  30. If we are talking about odds, I think $4.50 is fair odds for the LNP. But I still wouldn’t back them at those odds. Give me $7.0 and it’s a maybe. The ALP really should win this one. My only reservation is that Government hasn’t gone completely into decay, and the NSW ALP has been running underwhelming campaigns in recent years.


  31. NathanAsays:
    Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 7:13 pm
    While presenting yourself as a bit of an outsider to your own party that’s been in Government for 12 years is undoubtedly smart politics, it’s quite offensive to the ol’ intelligence when it’s the ultimate party hack insider doing it.

    That is the trick played by Scott Morrison in 2019 federal election and he won that election. Looks like DoPe is trying to emulate Morrison trick.


  32. Daniel Bsays:
    Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 6:26 pm
    Anyway, here’s some data to back up my claim which some of Labor cheerleaders on here seem very keen to deny:

    State and Territory election results since the beginning of 1993, by state:

    WA: 8 elections – 1 with the incumbent federal party, 7 against.
    SA: 8 elections – 3 with, 5 against.
    NT: 8 – 2, 6
    QLD: 10 – 2, 8
    NSW: 7 – 3, 4
    ACT: 8 – 3, 5
    VIC: 8 – 2, 6
    TAS: 8 – 5, 3

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Australian_elections

    Total: out of 65 state and territory election results from 1993 onwards, 21 have gone with the incumbent federal party/parties and 44 have gone against.

    Case closed.

    Daniel
    Case is not closed based on your figures for NSW
    Why?
    NSW: 7 – 3, 4
    And current discussion is about NSW election.

    Daniel: Reminder: psephology is the objective study of elections and voting, irrespective of your personal leanings. Wanting a certain result doesn’t make it any more or less likely.

    Couldn’t agree more with you on that aspect. 🙂

  33. OPV is the determining factor in this upcoming election in NSW.

    The NSW Liberals/Gerrymander coalition are banking on OPV and the lack of possibilities in individual seats.

    Re-electing the coalition and Perrottet in NSW is a gamble and the gambling is the game in NSW.

    Perrottet together with his elusive brothers and a mafia designed and configured NSW Liberal party need to be as disingenuous and dishonest as their federal colleagues.

    Bellow with all the abandon of the Duttonesque federal opposition “they’ll steal your millions” or they’ll steal your “chance of millions” or they’ll steal “your inheritance” or they’ll steal “your retirement” or they’ll steal “your super”.

    The punters only see the bright lights in the Rum state.

    The Coalition don’t deserve another chance in NSW but that’s another matter.

  34. The information we use is the result of the 2019 state election . The result in the same area at the 2022 federal election. This tends to show what is possible
    The opinion polls especially looking at Labor and anti Labor (coalition) primary votes. They show a liberal / national party deterioration in votes. This is reinforced by a series of scandals and difficulties which occurred post sept 2022 and still exist. Then there are special factors that apply to seats.eg Lismore sitting mp helped with bushfire and floods. Kiama Drummoyne and to a lesser extent Monaro are what I would call scandal seats. The quality of the alp candidate in Monaro. The loss of sitting member personal votes in Parramatta South Coast and Ryde. The personal vote in seats like upper Hunter and Oatley which will allow mps to possibly survive. The volatile nature of some areas eg Riverstone and Camden. The role of independents / teals esp on the North shore which did not largely exist at the 2019 state election. Special factors in the premier’s and opposition leader’s seats which will ensure they both hold. Messy preselections eg Holsworthy. David Elliott ‘s role in blowing up the government. The alp Special position in Fairfield and Cabramatta seats tied into the Alp loss of Fowler and the le _ Carbone control of Fairfield council. Opv overlays this which benefits the party which polls the higher primary vote and makes it difficult to win from behind. Now the improved position of Labor makes it likely that Labor will poll slightly behind even ,or higher in the primary vote compared to the coalition. Also I consider the nsw state boundaries are better a for labor than the federal boundaries are for nsw seats.

  35. All this I consider will result in a probable alp majority government. The liberals best hope is to govern in minority. But I consider they will lose too many seats with no corresponding gains to make this possible

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