The Australian brings us Newspoll voting intention results for New South Wales showing Labor’s lead at 52-48, which is notably narrower than other state polling of the last few months. The last state voting intention poll from Newspoll, in September, had it at 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 36% (down four) and Greens 12% (steady). Dominic Perrottet is up three on approval to 50% and steady on on disapproval at 41%, while Chris Minns is down one to 41% and up six to 33%. Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 39-35 to 43-33. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1014.
It so happens that a Roy Morgan poll this week also had it at 52-48, although this release continues the pollster’s odd habit of releasing its results long after the survey period, which in this case was in January. The primary votes were Coalition 35% (up one-and-a-half from December), Labor 32.5% (down one), Greens 9.5% (down two-and-a-half) and One Nation 6.5% (up two). The poll had a sample of 1147, with the precise survey dates not provided.
Stay tuned for my overdue state election guide, which will hopefully be along some time this week.
UPDATE (Freshwater Strategy): Now a Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review has a slight narrowing in Labor’s two-party lead since its last poll in October, from 54-46 to 53-47. Both major parties are up two on the primary vote, Labor to 39% and the Coalition to 37%, with the Greens down one to 10% and independents steady on 5%. The poll records a striking turn in Dominic Perrottet’s on preferred premier, on which he now leads 46-34 after trailing 41-38 last time. There was apparently a further set of questions in which respondents were asked if they were considering voting for or could be persuaded to vote for the various political players in turn, which “showed the Liberals lifting 7 points, Labor steady and a stark collapse in support for Climate 200, which dropped 8 points to 31 per cent”. As usual, issue salience questions found the cost of living head and shoulders above other concerns. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1247.
With a sample size of 1,147, the margin of error is about 3%.
Perrottet dominates the news cycle in Sydney, advantage of incumbency, and it is largely a supportive media pack. Chris Minns barely gets a look in, Labor’s daily announcements are ignored pretty much. Minns largely is still invisible to many voters. Perrottet can rely on the reliable Daily Telegraph, SMH and 2GB to be pro Liberal mouthpieces
Good job, Morgan. A month-old poll is super useful!
Primary results since 2019 for Newspoll
Lib/Nats down 4.5
ALP up 2.5
This will come down to the proportion of greens, SFF and others who give preferences – not sure what modelling is being used to give 2PP and its accuracy
Leroy has posted the demographic breakdowns at:
https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/1629793772006678528
Two points are clear. There is a significant gender gap, with women less willing than men by 10% (31% to 41%) to say Perrottet deserves to stay.
Half the apparent shift from Labor compared to September has gone to ‘others’. This is at a level like 2019 but the composition of ‘others’ may have changed. While a near majority favours a new government (48%, with 16% still to decide) much will depend on whether those who don’t want Perrottet to stay understand this requires specifying preferences.
Thanks Dr D
The fine print says the preference flow is based on recent federal and state elections – so irrelevant in an optional preference election.
State Labor’s TV ads so far look cheap and ineffective, no overriding narrative or attempt to introduce Minns and highlight his back story.
Oakeshott Country at 10.33 pm
There are some details for 2019 exhaust rates for the 4 by-election seats.
For Monaro see the graphs above ballot paper order at:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2022/guide/mona
For comparison see last table (TCP preference flow) for Eden-Monaro at:
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-117.htm
So federally Labor got 92% of Greens preferences in E-M in 2022, but only 57% of Greens voters in Monaro in 2019 bothered to preference Labor, with 32% exhausting.
Of voters for the Cooma independent (Thaler) Labor got only 26.5% in Monaro in 2019 (barely above Porky Barilaro at 23.9%), whereas in E-M Labor got nearly 58% of Thaler voters compared to 42% for the Libs.
If William can present the exhaustion figures by candidate (as Antony Green did, e.g. in Monaro above) in his seat guide, it would be helpful.
I saw Chris Minns walking with Albo last night, must admit he looked like a lost dog… How they selected this guy as leader amazes me… What is wrong with Labor in New South Wales and the way they select leaders?
Interesting Dr D
If Lars’ theory is correct (and I tend to agree) and we are entering a stage where the duopoly is failing, the exhaustion rate will be higher. The party with the highest primary will be favoured.
Crispy Wedges
A-E says Gerard Hayes is one of the powers behind the throne.
The antipathy towards him from the Labor partisans on PB certainly makes you wonder. Personally he just strikes me as the typical result of a failing nomenklatura. The competent leaders are long gone and have left behind those they promoted because they would never attempt a coup.
i wonder if their selecting to many ex union officials? The party has to move away from unions..
Labor lost the 2011 election because people were sick of their factional games, and the outright corruption of the Obeid era. They should, at that point, have had the mother of all clean outs, to emphasise that the message from the voters had been received and understood. But they didn’t really do that, and indeed kept recycling Ms Keneally as if they believed that she was God’s gift to Australian politics, rather than the biggest loser in living memory. Voters therefore have a right to wonder what they might be getting if they vote Labor back in. None of that is to say that the coalition deserves to be re-elected: they had the Barilaro factor after all. But it may explain why voters don’t seem all that enthusiastic about the alternative.
crispy wedges at 11:15 pm
“i wonder if their selecting to many ex union officials? The party has to move away from unions..”
I’m not convinced about that. Time was when quite a few union officials were repulsively ideological, and when there was frequent large-scale industrial action which tended to leave people feeling brassed off. These days, however, the unions seem less ideological, more pragmatic, and more anchored in reality, especially when compared with the sorts of religious wingnuts and single-issue ideologues (like Ms Deves) whose influence in the coalition seems to be growing.
Pedant
The NSW ALP Administrative committee which is in charge of party governance has a significant number of members who have been there since before 2011. A Bourbon situation of having learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Labor’s shadow ministry is invisible, where are Prue Carr, Ryan Park and Daniel Mookey? Who on earth is their shadow transport minister?
Asha says:
Sunday, February 26, 2023 at 10:28 pm
Good job, Morgan. A month-old poll is super useful!
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Any poll old or new is good if Labor are in front.
With the latest newspoll coupled with Morgan it averages out at 52-48 in Labor’s favour.
That has to be the good news story of the day.
Oakshott, perhaps in 2011 they had not been their long enough to get their pensions… that is how it works does it not??
No idea how to embed tweets on here, but this is interesting…
https://twitter.com/BuckinghamJN/status/1629767089920835586
Jeremy Buckingham, the former Green MLC who I imagine most current Greens never want to hear about again, has popped up as the Legalise Cannabis candidate. With NSW’s tiny little quotas, he’s got a decent chance of taking a seat off either AJP or the second (or third) Green – LC are usually good for a couple of %.
Meanwhile, Justin Field (who also quit the Greens around the 2019 election, mid-term) is going quietly. Has he done anything notable over the last four years?
Evan says:
Sunday, February 26, 2023 at 10:26 pm
Perrottet dominates the news cycle in Sydney, advantage of incumbency, and it is largely a supportive media pack. Chris Minns barely gets a look in, Labor’s daily announcements are ignored pretty much. Minns largely is still invisible to many voters. Perrottet can rely on the reliable Daily Telegraph, SMH and 2GB to be pro Liberal mouthpieces.
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So what’s changed?
Most elections campaigns go that way.
The last federal election had Scomo dominating the news cycle etc etc. and Albo was being ignored, with the Tory press saying ‘Voters don’t really know who Albanese is’ even thought he has been in parliament for 26 years and was LOTO for 3 years.
Results showed the voters knew who Albo was all along.
The same will happen for Minns.
The Australian Newspoll puts Labor in front at 52-48 on 2PP. Sunday 26th February 2023.
Sample size?
Margin of error?
Modelling for preferences?
Gender votes?
Preferred Premier?
ETC ETC ETC ?
Yes, the answers may differ with every poll.
But it won’t change this Newspoll’s findings ie LABOR IN FRONT 52-48 on 2PP .
the only unionist that needs to go is labor upper house mp Gregg donnelly the lastculture warior left in the the shoppies union given he is still in upper house and has been there since 2005 how can the shoppies say they have moved on from there over focus onculture wars such as gay marige and gender to focus on workers his term is up in 2023 hopefuly he will not be re selected abortion and let mark latham attack a labor mp inhis health committy dun good work on health but is an example how union influence doesnt help select quality candadates plus labor has no candadate in fairfield and minns does not sem overly inspiring he does not seem like he realy wants to be premier
Lib/nats currently 45 seats and in minority government
Lib/nats combined primary vote under 40% , Lib/nats will be in opposition
it seems he became leadernot due to party room support but thanks tohealth survice union bos Gerard hayes and australian workers union bos Daniel Wallton Walton is tiped to be a mp one day he has helped minns with his focus on demestick manufacturing but even some of his policies like the 500 extra paramedicks seem to be just adopting union policy hayes also anoyed some people as his brother cris the former mp yundermind labor fowler campaign desbite kenearley was not the right fit but people forget this was due to the asistants of the out of tuch social conservative shopies union who desbite claiming they have moved away from moral ishues still give nsw gregg donnoly who is a inbarasment to labor particulary as he is perhaps the most conservative member in the upper house now that nile is gone and is basickly a dlp type
Lib/nats still haven’t selected 20 candidates
The big indicator that lib/nats are likely to lose the NSW election , leaks of internal lib/nats polling
like in 2022 South Australian , Federal, Victorian elections
Internal Lib polling claimed the lib/nats combined primary vote was over 40%
Reality the lib/nats combined primary vote were mid 30’s
yes i know that they include kiama maybi the local liberals still support garith ward he is believed to be a key factional figure do not have a candadate against minns strathfield portstevins rockdale
98.6 @ 12.42am
Labor leading by 4% is better than Labor being 4% behind, except that it isn’t a winning margin.
Using the NSW Electoral Pendulum, 4% would only return the following seats: East Hills, Upper Hunter, Penrith, Goulburn and Willoughby.
Of these five seats I can only believe that East Hills and Penrith are potential gains.
In order to form a majority government the ALP need to win up to ten seats with a uniform percentage swing between 6- 8%.
The NSW polling has been weird. A few months ago it had the ALP winning by a landslide. Since then, the LNP campaign has been beset by scandals, while the ALP and Minns have had a relatively smooth run. But the polls are showing the LNP has made a big comeback. Why? I find it hard to believe the ALP was really ever miles ahead, or that there was such a big change in voting intention in recent weeks.
If the 2PP really is pretty tight, minority government of some kind is a big chance. The ALP should surely win East Hills and Penrith, and maybe some others like Parramatta further along the pendulum, but winning a net 6 seats to get to 44, where they can be quite confident of forming minority government, is not a given. Carbone might take a seat off the ALP. The ALP might get Balmain back from the Greens. The Nats might win back some or all of the 3 SFF seats. Ward may hold Kiama as an independent. Other independents might get up. It should be fascinating election night.
And a Freshwater poll in the AFR (who give the Coalition Bensonesque quality boosting)
The poll was conducted between February 23 and 25 from a field of 1247 voters.
Compared to polling conducted in October, Mr Turner said the data indicated the Coalition had “neutralised” the environment as an electoral weakness, with the environment as a voting issue dropping 12 points in importance, while cost of living, housing and affordability and crime rose in importance.
Cost of living remains the primary concern for voters ahead of the election, with more than 71 per cent of voters ranking it as the top issue in their lives.
As the cost of rents across the state rise – including in Sydney where rents have risen 2.5 per cent in the past 30 days to $744 – housing and accommodation has overtaken and health and social care to become the second-biggest concern for voters, followed by economic management.
Voters are also feeling less optimistic about their own finances, with 59 per cent of respondents feeling financially worse now than they did a year ago, up 7 points. At the same time, the number of voters who believe their personal finances will be worse off in one year rose 4 points.
Mr Turner said that as it had in Victoria, Climate 200 had struggled to secure a foothold in the state political debate given that voters were less concerned about environmental issues and political branding issues than they had been at the federal election.
The Coalition pushed ahead on measures including the party best placed to manage the economy as well as roads and transport.
It also made ground on general approval ratings, “brand” or electoral appeal, and preferred premier, with some indication that the Mr Perrottet’s personal approval ratings were translating to improvements in the Liberal brand.
Mr Perrottet’s rating as preferred premier jumped 8 points to 46 per cent to lead Mr Minns on 34 per cent.
Voters have gained a better understanding of the Premier over the past four months, according to Mr Turner, who said tightly controlled messaging from the Liberal team had helped voters see him less of a conservative ideologue and more as a competent manager.
https://www.afr.com/politics/dominic-perrottet-closes-in-on-chris-minns-20230226-p5cnpc
This article from the 12th of February slipped me by:
https://www.afr.com/politics/teals-leading-the-cash-splash-in-seats-ahead-of-nsw-election-campaign-20230212-p5cjw1
Teals targeting Pittwater, Lane Cove, Manly, and North Shore in early advertising.
so families are suffering and liberals have been in power for 12 years butif they get another term they will fix things both teams both perottit cabenit and minns shadow cabenit are invizable whereis sarah mitchel or natulie ward moprue car has been a little mor active
Aaron newtonsays:
Monday, February 27, 2023 at 8:05 am
so families are suffering and liberals have been in power for 12 years butif they get another term they will fix things…
_____________________
That approach worked for Andrews in Vicroria.
2pp is not an indicator. Of the result due to opv. Labor will not lose any seats most independents contesting will be relected.. except Kiama which is a special case. There are seats like Kellyville and Vaucluse which are too safe for the liberals to lose and some similar seats for the Nats like Cootamundra Tamworth and Northern tablelands. Outside these seats there are potential competive contests which will depend on the swing and the quality of the candidates. I calculate up to 20 mainly liberal held seats are in danger of being lost. To Labor and independents of various varieties. This determines the election.. most likely is an alp.majority govt. It is an error to look at a seat and say.. 4% swing overall.. this seat sits on a 8% 2pp margin therefore it will be retained by the liberals. The contest is much more complex.
LOL Taylormade!
Where is Vicroria?
So your argument is both sides are incompetent? Clearly wrong in Victoria. NSW remains to be seen.
Andrews, love him or hate him, addresses issues. LNP NSW just putters along.
And true to form TV “News” coverage is the preferred Premier metric hence the coverage that the latest polling is good for the government
No mention whatsoever of 52/48
So force feeding by media acting as an influencer
The same with the carry on re interest rates which are actually back to where they were at the bottom of the post GFC easing cycle – and then increasing marginally until the Coalition killed the economy and we had a further elongated easing bias – then came the Pandemic (which is still with us awaiting winter)
Hey Mick – Just a quick word to the wise. If there is a 4% MOE on the polling, you take a 4% ALP lead to an 8% ALP lead. It could also (just think this through old son) translate into no lead at all. I know that this is inconsistent with that fantastic Quinlivan mathematical algorithm that you’ve been working up for months, but you need to be flexible here mate to be a successful psephologist. And the polls are most certainly tightening. You have on many blogs stated all that matters is the primary vote – well now Newspoll and Morgan have the Govt in front on Primaries. The trend would indicate this will only widen in the next 4 weeks.
In fact, if you look at 2019, 4 weeks out, most polls had ALP leading at 52/48. And how did that one end up??
I think this was as good as it got for the ALP in 2019 polling (NSW)
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/19/essential-research-51-49-labor-new-south-wales/comment-page-2/#comments
Some of the posting looks a bit familiar.
Keen for some local polling in SFF seats FWIW.
Shellbell
Thank you – good to see that nothing changes on PB
Somewhere in that thread, a PB psephologist predicted a labor win in Myall Lakes – I would love to know who but can’t be bothered to read through it.
In fact, if you look at 2019, 4 weeks out, most polls had ALP leading at 52/48. And how did that one end up??
Daley attacked “Young Asians with their PhDs” – although whether that was the decisive point is open to debate
Comment from Kevin Bonham on twitter re the AFR Freshwater poll’s TPP
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1629972717561839616
Freshwater Strategy NSW (state) poll 53-47 to ALP. L-NP 37 ALP 39 Grn 10 Ind 6 SFF 1 others 8. 2PP is respondent-allocated but seems right (I get 53.3)
Preferred Premier (skews to incumbents) Perrottet leads 46-34 (a pretty average lead in state polling). #NSWvotes
9:32 AM · Feb 27, 2023
Hi Leroy
What % exhausting votes for each party are you using in your 2PP calculation?
Labor will win this if they can get Green preferences.
”Daley attacked “Young Asians with their PhDs” – although whether that was the decisive point is open to debate”
As I recall that was a rather unwise (in fact stupid) throwaway line in a talk about housing affordability (?) several months prior to the 2019 NSW election. The Sydney Morning Herald sat on it until the election campaign, thus showing themselves to be a player, like the Daily Telegraph, rather than a credible journal of record. If it was newsworthy it should have been reported at the time.
EDIT: here’s a reference – https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/19/michael-daley-claims-asian-workers-taking-young-peoples-jobs-in-sydney
The Liberals sat on the video for months before putting it out there. Some bright spark had posted it to YouTube – it had nothing to do with the SMH.
That and Daley not being across the detail on education spending during the debate did for him. The train wreck interview he did with Fordham was one for the ages.
43 seats remains the magic number, Labor are more likely to get there but finding the five seats won’t be easy despite what some people here seem to think.
Hi Oakeshott Country, I just posted Kevin’s tweet text, you’d have to ask him.
Thanks see that now Leroy
Michael Daley tried to be Sarah Hanson-Young in Faulconbridge and Pauline Hanson in Katoomba and was inevitably caught out.
(At about the same time there was a big pile of used notes from a Chinese source sitting in an Aldi bag on the front desk in Sussex St – talk about a lack of gratitude)
Reminder that all the MSM were in the bag for Morrison during the Federal election, to an extraordinary extent. He still got crushed. Same with the Vic election.
Dom is now coming out as a cooker with Fordo.
This poll could be the Lib high water mark.
https://twitter.com/2GB873/status/1629964606767521795?t=ZKBGj4Nh5qtXVK-QjVTZwA&s=19
Something to keep in mind with NSW state polling: there can be huge regional variations on where swings occur. A 4% 2PP statewide swing could mean 8% in Sydney, but 0% in the regions (or vice versa, for that matter).
So here’s the key question: where is the swing happening?
Given that Labor already regained all of its central coast/hunter seats in 2015, and given the only regional seat likely to be regained by Labor at this election is Kiama, that means to win majority government Labor needs to get close to 8-10 seats back in Western Sydney.
A 4% uniform statewide swing won’t be enough to do this… but an 8% swing concentrated in Western Sydney could just get Labor home.
Minns shouldn’t lose from here – he’d have to be considered the Labor Debnam if he does.
“Reminder that all the MSM were in the bag for Morrison during the Federal election, to an extraordinary extent. He still got crushed. Same with the Vic election.”
Newscorp backed Scott Morrison with some of their journalists with full knowledge Morrison was swearing himself in as minsters. I think it shows there moral compass to back a Liberal government at any cost no matter how incompetent they are.