The Australian brings us Newspoll voting intention results for New South Wales showing Labor’s lead at 52-48, which is notably narrower than other state polling of the last few months. The last state voting intention poll from Newspoll, in September, had it at 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 36% (down four) and Greens 12% (steady). Dominic Perrottet is up three on approval to 50% and steady on on disapproval at 41%, while Chris Minns is down one to 41% and up six to 33%. Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 39-35 to 43-33. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1014.
It so happens that a Roy Morgan poll this week also had it at 52-48, although this release continues the pollster’s odd habit of releasing its results long after the survey period, which in this case was in January. The primary votes were Coalition 35% (up one-and-a-half from December), Labor 32.5% (down one), Greens 9.5% (down two-and-a-half) and One Nation 6.5% (up two). The poll had a sample of 1147, with the precise survey dates not provided.
Stay tuned for my overdue state election guide, which will hopefully be along some time this week.
UPDATE (Freshwater Strategy): Now a Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review has a slight narrowing in Labor’s two-party lead since its last poll in October, from 54-46 to 53-47. Both major parties are up two on the primary vote, Labor to 39% and the Coalition to 37%, with the Greens down one to 10% and independents steady on 5%. The poll records a striking turn in Dominic Perrottet’s on preferred premier, on which he now leads 46-34 after trailing 41-38 last time. There was apparently a further set of questions in which respondents were asked if they were considering voting for or could be persuaded to vote for the various political players in turn, which “showed the Liberals lifting 7 points, Labor steady and a stark collapse in support for Climate 200, which dropped 8 points to 31 per cent”. As usual, issue salience questions found the cost of living head and shoulders above other concerns. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1247.
Let me represent Myself pls. With opv . It is hard to win from behind there are exceptions , that is where Preferences can be directed which are Labor and green votes. If Labor outpolls the coalition on primary votes in a seat they will most probably win that seat…on a nsw wide basis the same principle will apply . The contest is complex and the 2pp margin does not auto determine a seat. The latest poll suggests the liberals outpoll Labor by 1% 37 to 36. This does not change the dynamics of the contest.
These polls seem intuitively right to me. The Government is ageing but has avoided, barely, entering the fiasco zone. Labor should win but there is just that element of doubt. A Coalition primary of 37% seems pretty good in the circumstances. Could they pick up another two percent over the campaign? More likely I think that something will go wrong for them and they will slip back to 35% and lose outright. But Perrottet is no ScoMo, at least viewed from interstate, and so the comparison with the Federal election doesn’t seem quite right.
And herein the great psephologist Mick hath spake. He has spent the last 8 weeks saying it all turns on the primary vote, and how the ALPs primary is sinking like a stone, it’s no longer relevant.
Mick – a career in parliament awaits. The Comical Ali of pollbludger!
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/02/nsw-2023-new-polls-say-labor-majority.html
NSW 2023: New Polls Say Labor Majority More Difficult
My 2PP live estimate 52.9 to Labor (-1 since January) (est 44 seats – “nowcast” not forecast)
Chris Minns is more or less invisible and will remain so until the election campaign proper.
According to Chris O’Keefe on 2GB this afternoon, Labor are ahead in the following Liberal seats – East Hills, Parramatta, Riverstone and Winston Hills. If Labor wins those 4 and holds the 38 seats they have already(including Leppington), that puts them on 42 seats, 5 short of an overall majority.
The danger for the Liberals is possibly losing Willoughby and Wakehurst and Pittwater to Teal Independents.
A messy result in other words!
Kevin Bonham says:
Monday, February 27, 2023 at 2:53 pm
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/02/nsw-2023-new-polls-say-labor-majority.html
NSW 2023: New Polls Say Labor Majority More Difficult
My 2PP live estimate 52.9 to Labor (-1 since January) (est 44 seats – “nowcast” not forecast)
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Very well interpreted and explained in Kevin’s blogspot.
He is obviously happy to sit on that till the next poll appears.
But while Kevin says “New Polls Say Labor Majority More Difficult”
I’m more optimistic and at 52.9 to Labor 2PP, in theory Labor could win every seat.
Ray Hadley this morning bemoaning Newspoll putting Labor ahead at 52-48 said the NSW Liberals should campaign on the danger that if Labor win in NSW we will have every state and territory on the mainland in Labor hands. And he was serious.
An advertising campaign on this scenario might just sway voters to Labor just to see this rare phenomenon happen.
A bit like seeing Halley’s Comet every 75 years.
Something you can tell your grandkids about.
I’m not sure where O’Keefe got his intel. The first three don’t surprise me, East Hills is on the proverbial bees and I’m told Parramatta is ‘gone’.
Riverstone has a retiring member and would be in severe doubt. I’d be questioning Winston Hills – Mark Taylor is a good local member on a decent margin. It’s also interesting that Penrith wasn’t mentioned which doesn’t surprise me given the Federal results in crossover Lindsay booths.
I can’t see the Teals winning anything due to a combination of donation laws, OPV and Matt Kean.
MABWMsays:
Monday, February 27, 2023 at 9:10 am
Andrews, love him or hate him, addresses issues. LNP NSW just putters along.
_____________________
Reforms to address problem gambling.
Andrews vs Perrottet
Give it your best shot.
Will check back later to see how you are progressing.
Taylormaid says
Reforms to address problem gambling.
Andrews vs Perrottet
Give it your best shot.
Will check back later to see how you are progressing.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I doubt problem gambling, cashless cards and all that crap will have any effect on the election, whatsoever.
One side just counteracts the other.
While here in QLD, in the same vein that Katter says ‘he doesn’t have gays in his electorate of Kennedy in Nth QLD’, we all know that we don’t have problem gambling in QLD.
Yes, based on the 2022 federal results, I suspect Penrith will stay with the Liberals. Stuart Ayers is splashing the cash around and the Labor candidate is fairly uninspiring . Remember Lindsay federally swung to the Libs last year.
Similarly I doubt Oatley is a chance for Labor.
Chris O’Keefe on 2GB was also mentioning Seven Hills as a chance for a Labor pickup
Three stories in a row tonight on Nine News promoting the Government. Not too bad for the Libs. Nicely lined up by the Government media spinners. The benefit of incumbency which should end soonish. Only balanced out with a Chris O’Keefe piece on the Govt secretly locking in fare increases on public transport.
Labor HQ is not the most brilliant campaigning machine at the moment and an outright win remains a tough ask and always was.
When is someone going to ask Perrottet whether he is deliberately going slow in Kiama to help Ward and whether if elected he will accept his vote. I personally think he is entitled to the presumption and has every right to run but the Libs made such a deal about suspending him from Parliament that they have made their bed now and should be asked whether they want to continue to lie in it.
so penrith could be close but ayres is throwingg money arround labor has a slightly stronger candadate in penrith then in lindsay plus ayres is not a minister any more does prefered premier rating even matter perottit is never as popular as gladis
That list of seats doesn’t surprise me at all. Parramatta, Winston Hills and Riverstone have a huge and growing young Indian demographic and seats with that profile have been getting consistently Labor-friendly over time. A similar phenomenon can explain the curious swing patterns in the 2022 Victorian election (Melton bucking the trend of most of the other western Melbourne seats).
Taylormade says:
Monday, February 27, 2023 at 6:21 pm
MABWMsays:
Monday, February 27, 2023 at 9:10 am
Andrews, love him or hate him, addresses issues. LNP NSW just putters along.
_____________________
Reforms to address problem gambling.
Andrews vs Perrottet
Give it your best shot.
Will check back later to see how you are progressing.
____________________________
No.
I’m right. You’re wrong.
I won. You lost. You know it. I know it.
QED
The liberals must poll a higher primary vote to win. But it is possible for Labor to still win even if they donot… eg the 1995 election. Under opv up to the 2019 the the liberals had what I would consider the opv bonus. Should Labor poll a higher primary vote they get the opv bonus. I consider Labor is competitive in the 3 scandal seats Monaro Kiama and Drummoyne and expect them to win 2 of them. The North Shore contains maybe a 5 to 6 seats which are out of Labor’s reach but could be won by an independent of some ilk. Seats with a 2pp margin on average up to 6% are competitive for Labor as well. By definition seats included in this range with a margin of less than 2 % are likely to be alp won. Ayres is also surrounded by scandal and the liberal party were unwise to pick him. The question of whether Labor or the liberals poll the highest primary vote .. is touch and go if the polls are correct. . Oh yes despite the higher margin I suspect a alp win in Parramatta..
MABWMsays:
Monday, February 27, 2023 at 11:34 pm
_____________________
I reckon I know who the winner is dickhead and it’s not you.
Ah the Quinlivan PHD thesis returns, with the newly added concept of “OPV bonus”.
Delicious…..
Anybody know what is happening on FB and other social media? Scare campaign against Labor on, for example, interest rates, cost of living, super tax etc????
Terminator
Edit: sorry misread your post
Moderate the past does not determine.. the future . This time is different.. instead of just assuming I am wrong. Maybe assume I could be right are at least partly right. The climate now is very different… from 2019. And opv is different to full preferential. The main difference is it is hard to win in a given seat from behind. The parties who are best able to direct their preferences are lib to nat and visa a versa .. this only occurs in Port Macquarie. And Labor and the Greens . This will impact in some marginal seats but more so in seats where neither alp Greens can win… I repeat the coalition (mainly liberals) are in danger in about 20 seats .. now I don’t claim they will all be lost and of those lost some are outside labors reach.
No problems OC, just that a few posts on PB hint at an anti-ALP social media campaign but sans any details. Looks as though something is biting out there.
All I know is that now the papers are going to the minority government shibboleth it’s guaranteed to be a majority for someone… The Australian media predicting minority government is like people guessing Lupus on House
The hung parliament narrative which has finally settled in is perhaps more believable in the NSW context than it was in the Federal and Victorian election campaigns last year. The fact that we are the Liberals will start in a minority government situation in NSW due to the by-election in Bega and the redistribution margin in Heathcote makes it difficult for either side to gain a majority.
There are too few places for the Liberals to make a gain for them to offset any losses they might make. Perhaps the Nationals could reclaim some seats held by the ex-SFF independents, but they could just as easily hold on.
Conversely, the large swings needed in many Liberal held seats that Labor needs to win make it conceivable that Labor will fall short in a few too many places to actually take majority government. Seats including Drummoyne, Kiama, Monaro and South Coast which are all winnable for Labor are on double digit margins. Parramatta, Riverstone, Ryde and Winston Hills have smaller margins but need a much bigger swing than polls are currently suggesting.
Whilst I see that a Labor Majority is not out of the possibility, I don’t believe that it is a forgone conclusion.
Conor:
Yes, I agree with that assessment. Looking at the pre-election pendulum, and assuming the result on the day is broadly similar to the current polling, it’s quite possible that Labor may fall short of a majority, or even that the Liberals might be to be able to cobble together a minority government. It all depends on how the swing is distributed.
Election Preview – NSW Election 2023
By Antony Green, ABC Chief Election Analyst
(First published – 28 February 2023)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/preview
how do we think saliba will go in fairfield
so David saliba cris bowens pick finaly got anowsed as fairfield candadate dont know whiy moderit realy wants perottit so winn so much its not like he is even talking abbout the cashlis card any more the smh realizing no one cared moved on to praise clubs nsws its more likely the slip in labor vote minns is not negative enough and the advertising is bad focusing on his pamflit a fresh start then again the premiers adds arnt much better holding up his so called economick plan
but even then the media discribing saliba as a captains pick egnores perottits captains pick mclaron jones in the upper house to head the ticket which he forced through egzecutive perottits brothers are still missing
I wonder if the result will mirror Vic in late 2022, where the media were falling over themselves in talking up the possibility of an election so close, it’d result in a hung parliament. Easy walkover for Dan in the end.
has saliba been chosen for fairfield oficialy yet no news on labor page
David Saliba officially the candidate for Fairfield, Aaron Newton. He was promoted very hard by Chris Bowen.
Steve Wahn confirmed as Labor’s new Monaro candidate.
Only seats left Labor doesn’t have candidates in are Wahroonga, Cronulla, Oxley and Murray.
Labor to be a chance of minority government primary vote 33%+
Labor to be a chance of majority government primary vote 38%+
Lib/nats to be a chance of minority government combined primary vote 40% +
Lib/nats to be a chance of majority government combined primary vote 43% +
Due to poor help in the 2pp preferences , the lib/nats will be under the most pressure
Holdenhillbillysays:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 12:24 pm
Election Preview – NSW Election 2023
By Antony Green, ABC Chief Election Analyst
(First published – 28 February 2023)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2023/guide/preview.
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Essential reading by Australia’s Mr Elections.
If Carbone runs he’ll win.
My view is that with OPV the Coalition are a chance if their statewide primary vote is at least 3% higher than Labor’s.
This assumes a combined primary vote for the majors of roughly 70%.
Scott very hard to estimate due to opv. I think your ideas on primary votes are close..I think the libs will find it hard to exceed 40%. But I think Labor can poll over 35% primary and still win a majority esp if there are strong swings in areas like Riverstone and Camden. If Labor outpolls the coalition in primary votes I think.they will also win.
From my (admittedly distant) perch this doesn’t feel like Victoria.
Think it’s genuinely close, and that it’s the Coalition that has a little more wind behind their back.
If forced to make a choice at this early stage, I’d predict Premier Perottet after the election – but obviously there are multiple outcomes feasible at present.
I was astonished to read in the editor’s column after the Vic election (where they were mostly defending their election coverage by pointing to the news side of the operation and pretending their columnists like Le Grand don’t exist) in their admission they stuffed the minority government call that they had relied on primary votes to conclude a minority government was coming and in future they would look more at the 2pp.
In 2022.
I always say journalists are mathematical illiterates who mostly have no business talking numbers but this is an extreme case.
i dont think the liberals are ahead perottit may be prefered but he is no were near as popular as gladis and he has dropped th anti pockies campaign his brothers are still mising
Does anyone have any predictions or insights about Aston? (sorry if this is in the wrong thread).
On these numbers $3.60 for a Coalition govt seems generous from my view across the Murray.
1. Perrottet is a solid media performer who projects competence (in contrast with Gladys-in-the-Headlights), and seems to have managed to distance his government from past scandals.
2. NSW has historically held onto tired old governments for an extra term.
3. In recent decades voters have tended to balance federal governments of one colour with state/territory governments of the other.
Still think the Coalition are underdogs, but I’d have them around $2.70.
Aaron newton says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 8:36 pm
i dont think the liberals are ahead perottit may be prefered but he is no were near as popular as gladis and he has dropped th anti pockies campaign his brothers are still mising.
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If Miss ‘Gladbags’ Popularity was more popular than Perrottet then thank God ICAC caught up with her just in time.
Labor needs to press home the fact that Perrottet would do anything that Gladbags told him, as we all discovered during her grilling under ICAC.
For F**ks sake Labor needs to mention this at every opportunity and remind people what a shyster she was.
They are all tarred with the same brush.
HELLO!
Daniel my Brother says:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 9:41 pm
On these numbers $3.60 for a Coalition govt seems generous from my view across the Murray.
1. Perrottet is a solid media performer who projects competence (in contrast with Gladys-in-the-Headlights), and seems to have managed to distance his government from past scandals.
2. NSW has historically held onto tired old governments for an extra term.
3. In recent decades voters have tended to balance federal governments of one colour with state/territory governments of the other.
Still think the Coalition are underdogs, but I’d have them around $2.70.
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I must disagree with points No 1 No 2 and No 3.
However I totally agree with your last line but after the 2019 federal poll I won’t be placing any bets at any odds.
Taylormade says:
I reckon I know who the winner is dickhead and it’s not you.
________________________________
Well played, Sir! A well timed ‘dickhead’ is always good for a laugh. I genuinely did LOL.
That said, I think your team is going to get shellacked. The general punters aren’t interested in politics yet. When they wake up, they will get the baseball bats* out.
*apparently we can’t use that phrase anymore – but by golly gush it fits the scenario. The last NSW election was “the one too many” for the LNP.
Almost all Bludgers are predicting or hoping for a Labor win but with provisos such as:-
OPVs (Mick Quinlevin)
2PPs ( Scott)
Bookie odds (Daniel B)
Minority or
Majority (Scott)
Cashless card
Missing brothers (Aaron)
Swing distribution (Asha)
ETC ETC ETC
I think the only solution is to wait till we have at least two more polls released.
As far as placing bets on the outcome, just remember the words from the song by Chris De Burgh:-
“Don’t pay the ferryman,
don’t even fix a price,
don’t pay the ferryman,
until he gets you to the other side.”
Middle Aged Ba etc says
The general punters aren’t interested in politics yet. When they wake up, they will get the baseball bats out.*
*apparently we can’t use that phrase anymore – but by golly gush it fits the scenario. The last NSW election was “the one too many” for the LNP.
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NO! You can’t use that phrase anymore. It’s too American. It should read ‘they will get the cricket bats out’, now that’s allowed.
Sorry, must go and finish my competitions by midnight. AEDST.
(Might be back after the witching hour)
”
Aaron newtonsays:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 3:07 pm
so David saliba cris bowens pick finaly got anowsed as fairfield candadate dont know whiy moderit realy wants perottit so winn so much its not like he is even talking abbout the cashlis card any more the smh realizing no one cared moved on to praise clubs nsws its more likely the slip in labor vote minns is not negative enough and the advertising is bad focusing on his pamflit a fresh start then again the premiers adds arnt much better holding up his so called economick plan
”
Aaron Newton
Don’t get confused Moderate with Parramatta Moderate/ Newcastle Moderate.
Moderate is LNP supporter. That is reason Moderate wants DoPe to win.
Moderate posts at the time of NSW election to ridicule NSW ALP and ALP supprters. Not that anything is wrong with that.
”
BTSayssays:
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 7:05 pm
From my (admittedly distant) perch this doesn’t feel like Victoria.
Think it’s genuinely close, and that it’s the Coalition that has a little more wind behind their back.
If forced to make a choice at this early stage, I’d predict Premier Perottet after the election – but obviously there are multiple outcomes feasible at present.
”
Nah. You always posted that LNP “had wind behind their back” for all recent elections. Most of the time you were sceptical about Labor win.
No I am not going to post your previous posts to prove my comment.