Polls: Morgan, Morning Consult and BludgerTrack (open thread)

Nothing much doing on the federal polling front, but the latest numbers from Roy Morgan and Morning Consult find Labor and Albanese coming off a little since the start of the year.

If there’s been any polling relevant to the federal tier over the past week or so it’s escaped my attention, other than the weekly Roy Morgan numbers, with have Labor’s two-party lead in from 58.5-41.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13.5%. This was conducted last Monday through to Sunday, with no detail provided on sample size or survey method. The tracking polling of international leaders’ approval conducted by US pollster Morning Consult has recorded a slight weakening in Anthony Albanese’s standing over the past few weeks, with a current result of 57% approval and 31% disapproval, respectively down three and up four from the start of the year. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which makes use of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Freshwater Strategy, likewise records a declining trend in Albanese’s net approval over the past two months.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,303 comments on “Polls: Morgan, Morning Consult and BludgerTrack (open thread)”

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  1. Griff @ #2262 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 8:02 pm

    Late Riser @ Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 7:31 pm
    “yabba, on AI, earlier

    Off the cuff, I think intelligence (artificial or otherwise) involves feedback. An “intelligence” learns how to succeed by pushing on its environment and sensing the change. It also requires a sense of self, as distinct from not-self, and to be able to adjust that boundary. I think therefore I am?

    Your annealing code is clever, but not intelligent. You on the other hand have taught yourself how your world functions in fantastic detail, and even harder, you have taught yourself how to teach yourself. (We all have.) But I agree that our intelligence is so complex it may as well be a black box, and “true” machine intelligence is still some way off.

    As for conciousness perhaps that is “merely” the non-stop re-evaluation of one’s environment and of one’s self within it. Sometimes sharper, sometimes dulled.

    Black Box.

    (Dinner calls…)”

    This is where it would be a boon to have rhwombat and ItzaDream weigh in.

    Drive by (literally – I’m on my way back from Eden having done the Boyd Tower-Green Cape walk) so unlikely to be a boon, but thanks and I can’t resist.

    I think Yabba is right on the ball. Consciousness is biological and analog. It can be temporarily abolished by interfering with a cubic cm of tissue in the brainstem (chemically or electrically) – which is not what happens when we sleep. There is a lot of coherence emerging from neuroscience – especially about synaptic connectomes & NMDA gates (best summarised in some episodes of Ginger Campbells’ Brian Science podcasts with Seth Grant et al.). The concept of predictive matching and “minimal energy”models with massive parallel processing in neocortical columns seems to fit too. More thoughts later…

  3. Victoria says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 12:06 pm
    De Santis is going to crash and burn. He will not be President

    Holdenhillbilly says
    Trump can say whatever he likes. He will not be President again.

    Evan @ #2105 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 11:26 am
    If it’s a rerun of 2020 and it is again Biden vs Trump, Biden wins in my opinion.
    If it’s Biden vs DeSantis and Trump doesn’t run as a 3rd party spoiler independent – harder to call. Does DeSantis have appeal outside of Florida?

    C@T says:-There’s no way that Trump won’t run as a spoiler candidate if he doesn’t get the Republican nomination. His ego’s too gargantuan and his hatreds likewise.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    Above are just a few of hundreds of Bludgers posts on the 2024 US election.
    I’m amazed at the strong viewpoints of some bloggers this far out from November 2024, especially on De Santis, who at this early stage looks like JFK re-incarnated.
    Whoops, there I go, I’m just as bad as the rest of them.

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