If there’s been any polling relevant to the federal tier over the past week or so it’s escaped my attention, other than the weekly Roy Morgan numbers, with have Labor’s two-party lead in from 58.5-41.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13.5%. This was conducted last Monday through to Sunday, with no detail provided on sample size or survey method. The tracking polling of international leaders’ approval conducted by US pollster Morning Consult has recorded a slight weakening in Anthony Albanese’s standing over the past few weeks, with a current result of 57% approval and 31% disapproval, respectively down three and up four from the start of the year. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which makes use of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Freshwater Strategy, likewise records a declining trend in Albanese’s net approval over the past two months.
“They arrested and jailed Coco for closing the bridge.”
Gee, what could be the difference?
TPOF @ #2251 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 7:01 pm
Not supported financially by the Fossil Fuel Cartel?
I wonder who will be the first Abbott, Turnbull or Morrison Minister to be investigated with the Commonwealth ICAC?
Ukrainian territory: 603,628 sq.km.
Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia on Feb 23, 2022: approx. 42,000 sq.km. (7.0%)
Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia now: approx. 108,600 sq.km. (18.0%)
Net Russian territorial gain since Feb 24, 2022: approx. 66,600 sq.km
Net Russian territorial gain since Feb 24, 2022, per Russian KIA: approx. 435 sq.m.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine
Putin values each Russian soldier he has sacrificed in his needless, wrongful invasion of Ukraine at only a smallish suburban block in metropolitan Australia.
To put it another way, at the rate of territorial acquisition per Russian soldier expended displayed in this war so far, Putin would have to sacrifice a little over 1,290,000 soldiers to conquer all of Ukraine. 🙁
I use the chainsaw tip occasionally. It is in the technique.
They say the arrestor should save you from a kickback. But only if you position yourself properly.
#weatheronPB
Slow cool caresses
fill me with joy and quiet
as the day breaths out.
yabba, on AI, earlier
Off the cuff, I think intelligence (artificial or otherwise) involves feedback. An “intelligence” learns how to succeed by pushing on its environment and sensing the change. It also requires a sense of self, as distinct from not-self, and to be able to adjust that boundary. I think therefore I am?
Your annealing code is clever, but not intelligent. You on the other hand have taught yourself how your world functions in fantastic detail, and even harder, you have taught yourself how to teach yourself. (We all have.) But I agree that our intelligence is so complex it may as well be a black box, and “true” machine intelligence is still some way off.
As for conciousness perhaps that is “merely” the non-stop re-evaluation of one’s environment and of one’s self within it. Sometimes sharper, sometimes dulled.
Black Box.
(Dinner calls…)
Just back from my mum’s 90th.
One of the guests left their wallet behind. I sprinted after them, getting to the road above my mum’s to see his car pulling away, and no amount of jumping up and down got his attention.
There were two motorcycle cops stopped by the side of the road. I explained the situation to them, and one of them said that he wouldn’t take the wallet, but he’d go after the car and tell the driver to turn around.
Which he did.
Arky says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 6:55 pm
All the economic indicators are that interest rate rises have bitten hard enough and then some, and these tend to lag – we still aren’t really seeing the full effect yet
The RBA should clearly watch and see for a month, but you know they’re going to raise rates again out of sheer economic dogmatic crap. “This is how we always do it when inflation is due to a wage-price spiral so this is how we must always do it even when real wages are falling!”
I have to admit here that I think economics is a bullshit “science” which relies heavily on grossly unrealistic assumptions, like the infamous efficient markets bullshit. Hence you have things like Nobel Laureates nearly crash the US markets with the Long Term Capital Management disaster because they and their investors don’t understand the difference between their award winning models and reality.
This is one of the more obvious examples, since they are “fighting inflation” with measures that actively drive up cost of living and do nothing to the actual causes of the inflation, solely because it’s what worked against previous inflation. It’s not science it’s a cargo cult.
____________
Remember Dr (in economics) John Hewson’s Fightback?
It was based on his doctoral research. His research “assumed” a world of 3 countries and 5 products.
I kid you not.
And thanks Team Katich for the link to Glenn McLaren’s piece. I’ve started reading it in between making dinner. So far I quite like it.
https://hipporeads.com/jordan-peterson-destroyed/
Late Riser @ Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 7:31 pm
“yabba, on AI, earlier
Off the cuff, I think intelligence (artificial or otherwise) involves feedback. An “intelligence” learns how to succeed by pushing on its environment and sensing the change. It also requires a sense of self, as distinct from not-self, and to be able to adjust that boundary. I think therefore I am?
Your annealing code is clever, but not intelligent. You on the other hand have taught yourself how your world functions in fantastic detail, and even harder, you have taught yourself how to teach yourself. (We all have.) But I agree that our intelligence is so complex it may as well be a black box, and “true” machine intelligence is still some way off.
As for conciousness perhaps that is “merely” the non-stop re-evaluation of one’s environment and of one’s self within it. Sometimes sharper, sometimes dulled.
Black Box.
(Dinner calls…)”
This is where it would be a boon to have rhwombat and ItzaDream weigh in.
“Zaporizhzhia attack death toll rises to 13
Thirteen people have been killed as a result of the Russian missile attack on Zaporizhzhia on March 2, including an eight-month-old child, the State Emergency Services reported.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zaporizhzhia-attack-death-toll-rises-to-13
😡
“Russian invaders rejoice at “apocalypse” in fully destroyed Marinka
Russian occupiers have posted photos from the occupied town of Marinka in Donetsk Oblast which has been completely destroyed during the war.
Source: Russian military
Details: The Russian military posted photos of the destroyed town of Marinka on 4 March.
Quote: “When you hear the word ‘apocalypse,’ what comes to mind? The end of the world, the end of life, something terrible and irreversible, but this is what it is now.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/5/7392044/
So much for Russia’s claim to have only entered its troops into Ukraine to save the citizens of Donetsk from the government in Kyiv. Their legacy is a devastated, uninhabitable ruin and they are proud of it. 😡
This is Russkiy Mir. 😡
Late Riser @ #2032 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 7:31 pm
Thanks for responding. Most of my modelling is linear and integer programming. Simulated annealing is used on open ended problems that can’t be tied up into ‘balances’, like the classic ‘travelling salesman’ problem. I have used it to optimise matching of labour to machines in a parcel sorting facility, and to work out how to select the optimum routes for delivering dead chooks, whole and in bits, and where to make various baked products, taking into account dough sizes, lost time when changing products, oven capacities and inter-plant transport capacity. Is it better to make crumpets in Adelaide or in Melbourne, or in both?
As I said, the most fascinating thing to me is how the brain carries on problem solving in background mode, and then ‘pops’ the answer into your consciousness. As a for instance, I subscribe to the SMH digital edition, for 50C a day, to get the cryptic crossword. I also look at the ‘Target Time’ 9 letter scrambled word, and quite often my mind unscrambles it just while I’m looking at it. Sometimes it doesn’t occur to me straight away, and I just leave it for later. In such circumstances I often have a word suddenly pop into my mind, without any context at all, and I realise, with surprise, that it is the solution, which my mind has worked out in background mode. How many streams are going at one time, like the ‘translation look aside buffer’, even while you are asleep?
yabba @Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 5:55 pm
Just working backward after a day away from the place. Thanks for the post. AI is a curious thing. So many definitions of what AI or indeed I itself is. Self-awareness? Manipulating one’s environment? Adaptation? Mimicry? And so on.
AI can do one of these and at times, multiple. AI regularly passes the Turing test and we are now in a situation where we do not have a new consensus test for intelligence (NB:- I appreciate the Turing test is a test of being human, not intelligence, but it is the test that we had general consensus for a significant period of time).
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 6:50 pm
They arrested and jailed Coco for closing the bridge.
____________
Rex hates Pride.
Sample size of one, but…
Was chatting to my cousin earlier about recent political events. He could generally be considered centre-right – voted Labor last election primarily because he disliked Scomo (In his own words, “Morrison was so bad he made me vote Labor”), but also a Victorian who is rather anti-Dan Andrews, doesn’t like all the “woke” stuff, is very wary about the Voice, and thinks Albo is okay but wishes he wasn’t so left-wing.
He thinks the proposed super changes sound totally reasonable, and doesn’t understand what the fuss is all about.
Newspoll?
NEWSPOLL!!!!
Pi @ Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 3:51 pm
“To close it out, the two books that I primarily reduce my understanding of AI come from that book by Penrose and “Godel Escher Bach” by Douglas Hofstadter. Hofstadter broadly posits that it is the complexity itself that leads to consciousness.
https://www.amazon.com.au/Godel-Escher-Bach-Eternal-Golden/dp/0465026567/
I used to think that these might be contradictory positions. Over time, I’ve generally come to accept that they are not necessarily that. My partner sort of nuanced that whole argument. Anyhowz, both are great books. The narrative style of Hofstadter is especially impactful. Prose. It is interesting in its own right as a philosophical dialogue on consciousness.”
Good book. Worth rereading. Especially when you don’t understand it the first time round as a teenager 🙂
Newspoll?
Better be Newspoll or the conspiracy theorists will have a very anxious week.
A majority of voters have embraced the government’s superannuation tax plan despite marking down Labor and Anthony Albanese.
54-46.
Sucks being Coco. Because she was an idiot attention-seeker (right cause, wrong way to go about bringing attention to it), she probably wasn’t allowed to go anywhere near the Harbour Bridge today for the World Pride March. That’s if she’s even out of jail yet. 😐
Holdenhillbilly,
Gosh I hope Dutton keeps banging on about rolling back changes to super. Seems like a winner.
Newspoll Albanese net +17 (55-38)
Dutton net -11
Better PM Albanese leads 54-28
Asha
Sample size of one, but…
————————
Title of your new s-x tape?
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
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#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: ALP 37 (-1) L/NP 35 (+1) GRN 10 (-1) ON 7 (+1) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
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#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 54 (-1) L/NP 46 (+1) #auspol
So its the end of the beginning and Albo’s second peak comes to an end.
Hard to see Albo still being there in May 2025 isnt it? Clearly missed the bit in the PM brochure – where it says you have to do hard stuff in the job.
Arky
“I have to admit here that I think economics is a bullshit “science” which relies heavily on grossly unrealistic assumptions, like the infamous efficient markets bullshit. Hence you have things like Nobel Laureates nearly crash the US markets with the Long Term Capital Management disaster because they and their investors don’t understand the difference between their award winning models and reality.”
There is a lot of BS in economics. Economics isn’t like physics. It is about human behaviour, which changes over time. So even a perfect theory today might need to be jettisoned in 20 years time, because the behaviour has changed.
I think there are some good economists in academia (e.g. Piketty) who do provide genuine insights into how society works. But they don’t get much media airplay. Some can make a good living as business shills, peddling obsolete theories from the 50s because they suite corporate interests.
Lars,
You’re pathetic. I honestly don’t know who’s more pathetic, you or that Rex Douglas character.
“So it’s the end of the beginning and Albo’s second peak comes to an end.‘
Oh, silly L’arse. Why don’t you just host a bukake party with p1 and integrity. Nath can cosplay as a gimp.
I think there are some good economists in academia (e.g. Piketty) who do provide genuine insights into how society works.
Cass Sunstein for mine. Nudge economics is brilliant and has proven to be very influential economic theory.
So… Labor did a hard thing, albeit a thing made out to be much much bigger by the media… got a VERY mild haircut and…?
Albo still miles ahead as PPM… so, the clock is ticking?
Don’t you ever get tired?
Late Riser, it is a top read. Gone through it twice now (a skim and a closer look). The third will involve additional reading in reviewing old uni material and googling.
A better title for the piece could have been “A rebel without a cause”.
There’s no narrative to this government.
I was wrong about Chalmers though – he does have some sense that things need to change, sadly he’s flying solo as the super changes showed and obviously got voted down in Cabinet on what he really wanted.
As Nick Mc Kim said – the debt is $1trn and the S3 tax cuts cost $250bn.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:39 pm
“So it’s the end of the beginning and Albo’s second peak comes to an end.‘
Oh, silly L’arse. Why don’t you just host a bukake party with p1 and integrity. Nath can cosplay as a gimp.
_____________
You have got a foul mouth stooge.
jt1983 @ #2285 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 9:40 pm
If I were Lars von Liar or Rex Douglas, I’d feel dirty every time I did the Liberal Party’s dirty work for them on this blog.
The Usual Suspects are desperate for flotsam to cling onto 🙂
A majority of voters have embraced the government’s superannuation tax plan despite marking down Labor and Anthony Albanese, who has suffered a further plunge in approval following two weeks of heated debate over taxation and accusations of a broken election promise. An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows almost two-thirds of voters approved of Jim Chalmers’ plan to double the concessional tax rate for super balances over $3m.
There was overwhelming support among Labor voters. A majority of Coalition voters also backed the policy, due to take effect in 2025, despite Peter Dutton’s vow to repeal it if the Coalition were to win the next election. But the political mismanagement of the broader tax debate by the government, which last week forced the Prime Minister to rule out taxes to the family home, has coincided with a slide in Mr Albanese’s own approval ratings, which have fallen to their lowest level since the election.
Mr Albanese’s satisfaction score fell for the second consecutive survey, dropping two points to 55 per cent. This is now seven points down on his post-election high of 62 per cent.
Those dissatisfied with his performance also rose sharply on the previous poll in February – from 33 per cent to 38 per cent – giving the Prime Minister a net approval rating of 17 per cent.
While Mr Albanese still enjoys a significant lead over his rival as preferred prime minister, 54 per cent to 28 per cent, the gap between the two leaders has tightened, with the Opposition Leader posting his best result on this measure since the election. There was little shift in voters’ assessment of Mr Dutton’s performance, with a one-point fall in net approval rating to minus 11.
The shift has also been reflected in the head-to-head contest between Labor and the Coalition, which has also narrowed to the tightest margin since May last year with a two-point gap now separating the major parties’ primary vote.
The poll of 1530 voters conducted between March 1 and March 4 shows the Coalition’s primary vote lifting a point to 35 per cent while Labor dropped a point to 37 per cent. While Labor still enjoys a commanding lead on a two-party-preferred split, this measure also narrowed to 54-46 per cent.
This is the closest the two parties have been since the first post-election poll was conducted in July, but still represents a two-point swing toward Labor since it was elected. The movement in the numbers for the major parties, however, is within the margin of error.
The Greens, locked in a battle with the government over the future of the climate change safeguard mechanism, dropped a point to 10 per cent – the minor party’s lowest level of support in this term of parliament, and more than two points down on its election result.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party lifted a point to a post-election high of 7 per cent while other minor parties and independents remained on 11 per cent. This category now includes Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has consistently polled at 1 per cent.
The latest Newspoll also surveyed voter attitudes toward the super tax changes announced by the Treasurer and Mr Albanese last Tuesday. A large majority – 64 per cent – approved compared to 29 per cent who did not. Voters were presented with the policy as outlined – super balances over more than $3m would be taxed at 30 per cent, rather than 15 per cent currently. A total of 80 per cent of Labor voters approved of the policy. But 54 per cent of Coalition voters also approved.
Support was strongest among those aged 35-49 – 70 per cent – with the lowest level of support among 50-64-year-olds. But even among this cohort, 60 per cent approved.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-superannuation-a-win-with-voters-but-anthony-albanese-made-to-pay/news-story/ec2e5fb3a180bb527f8712011ac6cad8?amp
GhostWhoVotes
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#Newspoll Albanese: Approve 55 (-2) Disapprove 38 (+5) #auspol
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#Newspoll Preferred PM: Albanese 54 (-2) Dutton 28 (+2) #auspol
2 down on Approval is a ‘plunge’!?!
“You have got a foul mouth stooge.‘
Sorry mate. I should have resisted the temptation to including you in with this particular congaline. … but perhaps i was just saving time though. I must say, t’is not like you to be offended by ribald language. It is unbecoming the bohemian persona you cultivate. leave it to our hall monitor to harrumph about that. …
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Peter Dutton has a natural instinct of being a man of the people, especially among his own tribe, that has only ever been surpassed in its sheer brilliance by Alexander Downer
The point about the super changes is they will save about $500m (because the balance of $1.5bn comes from making everybody pay for paper not real gains).
Of course Labor introduced a change that only the super wealthy are impacted by. When you have to cut or find about $40-60bn what is to be done? You actually have to make a case because it impacts lots of people.
If they nearly botched this – its hard to see this lot make a case that affects real voters.
They’ll have to earn it from here on in – hence my reference to the end of the beginning.
That is all.
Here come The Greens!
The Greens, locked in a battle with the government over the future of the climate change safeguard mechanism, dropped a point to 10 per cent – the minor party’s lowest level of support in this term of parliament, and more than two points down on its election result.
Oh wait …
New thread.
Full Newspoll figures on Superannuation tax changes here
https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/be8989635ff30f95deaee9f8b61e1039
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Albanese 54 (-2) Dutton 28 (+2) #auspol
After wall to wall coverage of Dutton by MSM including ABbloodyC
I’d call that an epic fail on Dutton’s part.