If there’s been any polling relevant to the federal tier over the past week or so it’s escaped my attention, other than the weekly Roy Morgan numbers, with have Labor’s two-party lead in from 58.5-41.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13.5%. This was conducted last Monday through to Sunday, with no detail provided on sample size or survey method. The tracking polling of international leaders’ approval conducted by US pollster Morning Consult has recorded a slight weakening in Anthony Albanese’s standing over the past few weeks, with a current result of 57% approval and 31% disapproval, respectively down three and up four from the start of the year. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which makes use of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Freshwater Strategy, likewise records a declining trend in Albanese’s net approval over the past two months.
“Vladimir Putin has told Russia’s FSB security service to step up its intelligence activity and stop “sabotage groups” entering the country. In a speech to FSB officials, the Russian leader instructed the agency to strengthen its activity to counter what he described as growing espionage and sabotage operations against Russia by Ukraine and its western allies. He also admitted that FSB members had been killed in Ukraine.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-news-russian-forces-bakhmut-china-us
Well, Putin has literally pushed tens of thousands of unwilling Ukrainians into fleeing their war-ravaged homes and, in many cases, finding Russia to be the nearest other country to flee to. Can he really wonder why many of them might hold Russia in bitter enmity? I think he is shutting a stable door months after the horse has bolted with this move.
Protection racket diplomacy from V. V. Putin:
“Russia is open to negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has said, but he insisted Moscow would “never compromise” on what he described as new “territorial realities”. Speaking to reporters during a regular briefing, Peskov said Moscow would not renounce its claims to four Ukrainian regions that Putin annexed in September.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-news-russian-forces-bakhmut-china-us
Translation: “we’ve taken what we want from you, now you promise not to raise any more fuss and we promise not to take any more from you. Pinky swear.”
Some ‘openness to negotiate’.
“The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has reiterated the Biden administration’s concern that China is considering providing lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Speaking after a meeting with leaders in the Kazakh capital, Astana, Blinken warned that Beijing would face “implications and consequences” if it decided to provide such support.”
“China has “very clearly” taken Russia’s side and has been “anything but an honest broker” in efforts to bring peace to Ukraine, the US department of state spokesperson Ned Price said at a news briefing yesterday. China has provided Russia with “diplomatic support, political support, with economic support, with rhetorical support”, he added.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-news-russian-forces-bakhmut-china-us
If China does this, then China should be treated as an enemy, pure and simple.
Good to see you back on deck and firing on all cylinders, Ven. 🙂
“Russia’s Pulkovo airport in St Petersburg temporarily suspended all flights earlier today amid unconfirmed media reports of an unidentified object such as a drone being seen nearby. Some flights were diverted back to Moscow while the airport was shut for about an hour. Russia’s defence ministry later announced there had been a training exercise between air defences and civilian aviation authorities.”
“Emergency services put out a fire at an oil depot in southern Russia overnight after a drone was spotted flying overhead, the RIA news agency said. The fire in the Russian town of Tuapse, Krasnador, was reported at 2.30am local time and spread to an area of about 200 sq metres before it was extinguished. “The oil tanks were not affected. There was no spill of oil products. No injuries,” said Sergei Boyko, who leads the local administration.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/feb/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-news-russian-forces-bakhmut-china-us
That attack in Tuapse was reportedly preceded by explosions:
“A fire broke out at an oil depot in Russia’s southern city of Tuapse at night on Feb. 28, according to the city administration.
Local news outlet 93.ru previously reported two explosions on the oil depot territory, citing Tuapse residents.”
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/local-authorities-report-fire-at-oil-depot-in-russias-krasnodar-region
Russia’s air defence over its own territory is showing itself to be quite porous. Russian people will do well to think about that as their country’s leadership persists with its ill-conceived and unjustified invasion of Ukraine.
Enough Already @ #3 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 6:32 am
And I hope the China fan club on PB hang their heads in shame and apologise for being willing dupes for the biggest enabler of Authoritarian nations on the planet!
‘WarC@t’ my fat aunty! 😡
Or, only in so much as I will fight to the death for freedom from tyrants and Democracy!
Paul Keating should hang his head in shame as well. He must be getting old and addled not to have seen China’s true intentions coming a mile off!
And China better be damn careful what it does from this day on. It’s not as smart as it’s leadership thinks it is. If it wants to combine with Putin and the Mullahs in Tehran to bring on WW3, well it should look at what America is doing in its backyard above. Nancy Pelosi has also been to Armenia. Also, a couple of days ago Saudi Arabia switched allegiance away from Russia and China and had President Zelenskyy make a visit there to accept a $400 Million donation, plus they have American air bases there.
There’s no way China and the Tyrant States will ever rule this world. Democracy Rules, okay!
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 6:50 am:
“And I hope the China fan club on PB hang their heads in shame and apologise for being willing dupes for the biggest enabler of Authoritarian nations on the planet!”
=================
C@t, democratic nations need to be alert that they don’t concede too much position and too many pieces in this chess game the ‘great’ authoritarian regimes are currently playing against us. This game of theirs is being played in real time, and the stakes are very high and all too real.
Ven, time to bury the hatchet. What should the West be doing right now and into the future to draw potential allies like South Africa and India out of the orbit of Moscow and Beijing? My immediate concern, of course, is the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign country and Ukrainians as a people in their own right, but it seems to me that democracy as an ideal is being threatened by an alternative vision of nationalist authoritarianism, violently imposed by regimes like the Kremlin.
EA,
India has a large population that it wants to draw out of poverty, so it takes what it can get when it comes to good deals. However, they shouldn’t be surprised that when the tiger they have by the tail turns on them too.
i think indea is just a bad they seem rusias biggest backers desbite membership of the quad
Thanks C@T, just taking it slowly.
Ven, welcome back, hopefully time will slowly lessen the trauma.
“Since the change of government last May, Archer has made it clear she wants to work constructively with the Albanese government on policy that benefits her constituents rather than line up with the reflexively negative political strategy being pursued by the opposition leader, Peter Dutton.”
Quite the quandary for Dutton, it seems it’s Archer that holds the whip hand. Dutton can hardly afford to run the risk of losing a seat by forcing Archer to go Independent but he also runs the risk of aggravating his rabid base. Broad church Phhhtt.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/01/liberal-forces-planning-to-dump-bridget-archer-before-next-election-veteran-party-adviser-warns
Enough Already @ 7.02am.
It will be difficult to draw South Africa from its orbit with Russia and China.
Unfortunately, the Marxist goons, from the ANC, which now control the country were all indoctrinated in Russia.
They still see the west as nothing but imperialists who helped sustain the former apartheid regime.
It’s debatable whether India still counts as a democracy . Being arrested for criticising the PM (Modi) would be considered proof by most people that you’re not a democracy.
India , Turkey , China all playing an opportunistic game wrt Ukraine.
American jingos in believing everything America says about China shocker. Welcome to a new thread all.
Almost ten months after the election and with the worst situation in terms of inflation and interest rates for many years, these are still objectively strong poll numbers for Albo and Labor. I fully expected 2023 to be a tough year for many Australian budgets (no news there) and thus it will prove to be the case.
With a helpful budget in May and expected improvement in inflation and interest rates in 2024, I still expect Labor to be well positioned for the 2025 election (black swan events notwithstanding). Calm, mature and equitable government that represents the will and values of the majority is proving to be exactly what Australia most needed.
WRT super changes.
If it’s 2bn in saves – a fair trade for 2bn in increased wages for aged care.
Negligible impact and certainly not a revenue changer. Equity would have meant a crackdown on the defined benefit millionaires – which looks like it won’t happen.
Notwithstanding counting appointing peeps to stuff as achievements .
What has the Govt actually done which is new in 9 months?
Basically :
1. New IR laws
2. Token super changes
3. Gas price control
4. Kicked off the Voice
It’s arguable what the effect of any of these will be IMO.
Maybe there is a secret agenda for sweeping reforms in the May budget ?
Cronus @ 7.13am.
My thoughts exactly, regarding Bridget Archer, which I have posted a couple of times, here, since the election.
The Coalition are in a quandary regarding her parliamentary position.
If they force her to resign from the LNP, she will sit as an Independent and thus lessen their parliamentary representation. She may, of course, consider and become an independent member of her own violation.
Either way the LNP has one less member in the parliament and, I believe, she could re-contest the 2025 Election and retain Bass as an independent member.
Of course, the ALP would and should contest Bass, but would be pleased, if unsuccessful, to have Archer sitting as the Independent Member.
‘Good morning Dawn Patrollers
According to a new Resolve poll, NSW Labor is on track to return to government for the first time since its landslide 2011 election defeat, although one-quarter of voters are still undecided about which party to support less than a month from polling day. Alexandra Smith reports that less than four weeks before the March 25 election, Labor’s primary vote has increased one point to 38 per cent while the Coalition’s has slipped two points to 32 per cent – its lowest level since the long-running John Barilaro trade appointment scandal last year.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-on-track-to-return-to-government-for-first-time-since-landslide-2011-loss-20230228-p5co58.html
At last!. A story on the robodebt royal commission at the front of the SMH website. Here Maeve Bannister tells us how it was revealed that a public service culture of reward and punishment could have led senior officers to stay quiet about the unlawful robodebt scheme. When problems with the scheme were revealed, former minister Stuart Robert wanted to “double down” rather than apologise and correct the error, the hearing was told.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/minister-wanted-to-double-down-when-robo-debt-problems-revealed-hearing-told-20230228-p5cod5.html
As usual, The Guardian’s Luke-Henriques-Gomes is following developments at the commission. It was quite an illuminating day yesterday!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/28/stuart-robert-said-we-will-double-down-after-being-advised-robodebt-was-unlawful-inquiry-told
The Robodebt Royal Commission lays bare a lack of regard for the rule of law among ministers and public servants, yet the Prime Minister’s office is displaying a worrying lack of respect for rulings made by courts to protect citizen’s rights to know. Transparency warrior Rex Patrick reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/robodebt-and-other-transparency-failures/
David Crowe and Shane Wright say, “Double or nothing” as Albanese’s superannuation power play sets up an election brawl. It will be difficult for A Current Affair and the like to come up with sob stories that will resonate with the unaffected 99%.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/double-or-nothing-albanese-s-superannuation-power-play-sets-up-election-brawl-20230228-p5co9h.html
And Crowe says that, with superannuation, Albanese has crafted a political wedge he can use again. It was big call on a small change to superannuation that is cleverly designed to keep most Australians happy while driving his opponents into a conservative ditch.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-super-plan-a-political-wedge-he-can-use-again-20230228-p5co9j.html
Labor could have unleashed a fiscal chainsaw massacre – instead it opted for a cautious hop on superannuation, opines Katherine Murphy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/28/labor-could-have-unleashed-a-fiscal-chainsaw-massacre-instead-it-opted-for-a-cautious-hop-on-superannuation
The mainstream media is failing in its duty to hold the Coalition to account as it continues falsified scare campaigns against Labor, writes Victoria Fielding after seeing coverage on Labor’s superannuation announcement.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/liberal-scare-campaigns-super-lies-promoted-by-media,17276
Just as Labor gave John Howard no latitude over his GST strategy, the Coalition will give Labor none over this, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/chalmers-never-ever-super-moment-aims-to-get-the-politics-right-20230228-p5co2z
The AFR editorial judges that Labor’s super tax caps strike a fair balance.
https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-super/labor-s-super-tax-caps-strike-a-fair-balance-20230227-p5co0m
The government insists there will be no changes to superannuation this term, so it can’t be accused of broken promises, points out Jennifer Hewett.
https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-super/labor-tackles-the-high-end-of-super-concessions-20230228-p5co79
“Don’t waste sympathy on self-funded retirees … like me”, says Ross Gittins.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/don-t-waste-sympathy-on-self-funded-retirees-like-me-20230228-p5co3r.html
Chris Richardson describes the new super tax as “sticky tape rather than a permanent fix”.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/new-super-tax-is-sticky-tape-rather-than-a-permanent-fix-20230228-p5coaj.html
The Australian – which is all over the announcement – has a lead story that says construction workers, farmers, doctors, lawyers, senior executives and self-managed retirees are among the 80,000 people who will be paying more tax on their super by 2025. So?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/over60s-unfairly-targeted-in-changes-to-superannuation-tax-concessions-advisers/news-story/90542666e07609050ba98166faff2abb?amp
And its James Kirby says doubling tax on super amounts over $3m will push savings out of the system as investors seek new tax breaks. So?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/stand-by-for-a-superannuation-exodus-as-investors-seek-new-tax-breaks/news-story/2887c329ff12eec5812df615cf9157a2?amp
Few will weep for the predicament of those affected by the super changes, but the self-managed super fund community will be hit particularly hard, writes Jess Irvine.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/3-million-in-super-take-comfort-in-tax-benefits-past-20230228-p5cobw.html
John Lord looks at who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook.
https://theaimn.com/who-should-take-the-blame-for-the-current-dismal-outlook/
Anne Twomey tells us that if the government disagrees with representations made by the Voice, the short answer is that the government prevails. Governments and parliaments are elected to represent all the people, not just one group of the people. This means they have to take into account a broad range of considerations, including how to manage the budget and the economy, ensure national security and maintain the social wellbeing of the whole country.
https://theconversation.com/what-happens-if-the-government-goes-against-the-advice-of-the-voice-to-parliament-200517
Katherine Murphy reports that a former senior strategist to a Tasmanian Liberal premier and the right-wing powerbroker Eric Abetz has declared “certain forces” in the Liberal party are planning to dump the outspoken moderate Bridget Archer in the run-up to the next federal election.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/01/liberal-forces-planning-to-dump-bridget-archer-before-next-election-veteran-party-adviser-warns
In a major shift in posture, Dominic Perrottet has said he will not privatise more government assets and will instead go deeper into debt to fund new infrastructure projects.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-rules-out-future-privatisation-in-major-coalition-shift-20230228-p5co7m.html
According to Paul Sakkal and Sumeyya Ilanbey, senior Victorian Liberal figures, including at least one MP and staff in the offices of state and federal parliamentarians, have been drawn into a potentially damaging defamation case that will go to court today.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/senior-liberals-ordered-to-produce-documents-to-unmask-mystery-blogger-20230228-p5co67.html
Chris Bowen is personally lobbying key activist groups to ensure they back emissions reforms ahead of the “most critical decade for climate action”, reports Jacob Greber.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/bowen-to-climate-activists-don-t-squander-this-opportunity-20230228-p5co8p
Progress on a benchtop ban sounds good on the surface, but we shouldn’t ignore the fine print, warns Adele Ferguson.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/progress-on-a-benchtop-ban-sounds-good-on-the-surface-but-don-t-ignore-the-fine-print-20230228-p5coat.html
The Indigenous voice to parliament is “really susceptible to misinformation”, a leading communications expert advising the government has warned, saying the referendum is “poised on a knife edge” because voters may make up their minds far later in the campaign than at a standard election. The comments come as key Liberal supporters of Indigenous constitutional change urge the government to rethink its strategy on the voice, warning the referendum is “dead” without a substantial increase in conservative support, writes Josh Butler.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/28/indigenous-voice-adviser-warns-vote-on-knife-edge-as-liberals-say-referendum-dead-without-conservatives
The Australian Defence Force is taking too long to implement some of the cultural reforms sparked by the Afghanistan war crimes inquiry, an independent watchdog has warned. Guardian Australia’s Daniel Hurst reveals that the oversight panel led by the former intelligence inspector general Vivienne Thom has conveyed its concerns directly to the military top brass.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/01/adf-taking-too-long-to-enact-reforms-after-afghanistan-war-crimes-inquiry-watchdog-warns
Snowy 2.0’s star tunnelling machine Florence is bogged in Kosciuszko’s soft earth and the diva’s delay is turning heads to the troubled mega-project’s future and industry’s capacity to deliver, writes Tom Dusevic.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/calls-for-snowy-20-to-be-subject-to-frequent-reviews-in-line-with-performance-guidelines/news-story/634a6bca02ffa851fee5763bf1f070b9?amp
It’s all over bar the shouting, says Mike Scrafton about the inevitability of a submarine farce.
https://johnmenadue.com/all-over-bar-the-shouting-the-inevitability-of-a-submarine-farce/
Amanda Meade tells us that lawyers for Crikey, which is being sued for defamation by Lachlan Murdoch, are considering the implications for its defence of the admission by Rupert Murdoch that Fox News hosts endorsed Donald Trump’s lie that the 2020 US election was stolen.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/mar/01/crikey-examines-rupert-murdochs-admission-that-fox-news-hosts-endorsed-us-election-lie
“Is Brexit finally done, or is everyone just done with Brexit?”, wonders the ever-entertaining John Crace.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/27/brexit-done-northern-ireland-protocol-sunak
Despite celebrating 12 months of surviving the Russian onslaught, promises of more money and military equipment (including tanks) from the West, and a chorus of support for the courage and resilience of the people, the war appears almost over for Ukraine, writes Scott Burchill.
https://johnmenadue.com/ukraine-is-it-almost-over/
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Glen Le Lievre
Simon Letch
Cathy Wilcox
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 7:05 am:
“EA,
India has a large population that it wants to draw out of poverty, so it takes what it can get when it comes to good deals. However, they shouldn’t be surprised that when the tiger they have by the tail turns on them too.”
====================
C@t, maybe it makes for tawdry diplomacy, but you are right to highlight the genuine needs facing India’s population, and so the genuine imperatives facing any Indian government that wishes to endure. I think India at least is large enough to count as a ‘must consult’ on any major military venture anywhere in their hemisphere. That leads to the question: how the West, in this case in the cause of Ukraine’s defence against unwarranted invasion, can demonstrate positively to India that working with the West and against Russia (and China?) will yield the Indian population better outcomes. I do think you have hit the nail on the head in terms of the type of thinking that is needed. Thank you.
Macca RB says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 7:36 am
Cronus @ 7.13am.
My thoughts exactly, regarding Bridget Archer, which I have posted a couple of times, here, since the election.
The Coalition are in a quandary regarding her parliamentary position.
If they force her to resign from the LNP, she will sit as an Independent and thus lessen their parliamentary representation. She may, of course, consider and become an independent member of her own violation.
Either way the LNP has one less member in the parliament and, I believe, she could re-contest the 2025 Election and retain Bass as an independent member.
Of course, the ALP would and should contest Bass, but would be pleased, if unsuccessful, to have Archer sitting as the Independent Member.
———————————————————————————————
Macca RB
I agree entirely and I think Archer is a win-win for Labor and a lose-lose for the Coalition. It seems that Archer will support commonsense policy that benefits Australians rather than ideology directed at an unrepresentative minority base, good for her.
Rooftop solar is poised to overtake coal as Australia’s biggest source of generation capacity, as the rapid pace of new installations accelerates the decline of fossil fuel-fired power.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-01/rooftop-solar-to-overtake-coal-as-australias-main-power-source/102033740
Another day another apology piece by Alexandra Smith in the SMH. Listing some of the problems for the Liberals but none of it is the fault or responsibility of poor Dom. Even one of his brothers hiding is not the responsibility of our Dom according to her. Her commentary is really quite strange areas.
Aaron newton @ Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 7:12 am:
“i think indea is just a bad they seem rusias biggest backers desbite membership of the quad”
=====================
Aaron, right now, that is true. By trying to provide diplomatic cover for Russia through a show of high-minded neutrality, they ease Russia’s consciousness of being international pariahs. By dramatically escalating trade with Russia, they ease the pressures on the Russian economy by which the West hope to bring the Kremlin back away from further pursuit of their invasion. For Ukraine’s sake, India needs to change its posture on this war and its perpetrator.
Thanks so much BK
Undecideds notwithstanding, those are very positive primary vote numbers for Labor and disappointing primary vote numbers for the Coalition in NSW for the upcoming state election. Some cause for both optimism and impetus hopefully for Minns.
Macca RB @ Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 7:23 am:
“Enough Already @ 7.02am.
It will be difficult to draw South Africa from its orbit with Russia and China.
Unfortunately, the Marxist goons, from the ANC, which now control the country were all indoctrinated in Russia.
They still see the west as nothing but imperialists who helped sustain the former apartheid regime.”
======================
MaccaRB, that is right. I’m less hopeful about SA than I am about India, because the more China aligns itself with Russia, the more inclined India will view Russia warily. I don’t see a similar dynamic in the case of SA, so any rehabilitation of the relationship with SA will have to be much more purely based upon positive contributions the West can make to southern Africa.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 7:47 am
Rooftop solar is poised to overtake coal as Australia’s biggest source of generation capacity, as the rapid pace of new installations accelerates the decline of fossil fuel-fired power.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-01/rooftop-solar-to-overtake-coal-as-australias-main-power-source/102033740
———————————————————————————————
Thanks HH
A real morale booster and a slap in the face for deniers and the ff lobby.
“ The lobby forecasts rooftop solar to eclipse the generating capacity of coal-fired power in April, when energy giant AGL is scheduled to close the remaining units at its 2,000MW Liddell coal plant in New South Wales.”
Good morning all, thank you, BK.
15
cloudy
still
Summer’s a gone.
IMO yesterday was the worst day of the RC for the ex-Gubbies. It will be interesting to see what damage control Robert can cobble together tomorrow.
Basically his position as Shadow Assistant Treasurer, which was untenable given his other issues while in government, is now doubly untenable.
Ven’s article from the Times of India on Pakistan’s woes from last night is worth a read, IMO. It needs the usual pinch of salt when Indian perspectives on Pakistan are being canvassed.
Macca RB @ #17 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 7:36 am
I’ve been waiting for the LNP hammer to drop on Bridget. She has been a pretty free agent, but this seems to be a position the voters of Bass support.
If she sat as a pure independent I’d expect Labor to pick the seat up next time. Bass flips between Labor and Liberal more often than a coin in a two up game. JLN has been very keen to recruit Bridget, but she has been playing her cards close to her chest on this one. Not sure they are a great personal fit, but Bass voters might back her is she did join the JLN, it’ll be down to a personal choice that Bridget makes.
But to be sure Eric Abetz is a mouth piece for the fart right of the Liberal party, particularly in Tasmania. So if he says ‘certain forces’ he means himself and his faction.
NB, I typo’ed fart but chose to leave it in cause it made me smile.
I’d also add that I’m not sure Eric Abetz would have the numbers to roll Bridget.
“ Paul Keating should hang his head in shame as well. He must be getting old and addled not to have seen China’s true intentions coming a mile off!”
Ah, our little American, back on form. Maybe Blinky Blinken will reserve a place for you in Arlington Cemetery. Right next to Sheridan and Rupert’s plots.
Macarthur
This is plain wrong
MaccaRB, that is right. I’m less hopeful about SA than I am about India, because the more China aligns itself with Russia, the more inclined India will view Russia warily.
India has been a long term ally and supporter of Russia regardless of the posture of China to Russia. It will remain so despite the fantasies of the US jingoists that India is some strong ally for Australia etc.
wranslide @ Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 8:29 am:
“Macarthur
This is plain wrong
MaccaRB, that is right. I’m less hopeful about SA than I am about India, because the more China aligns itself with Russia, the more inclined India will view Russia warily.
India has been a long term ally and supporter of Russia regardless of the posture of China to Russia. It will remain so despite the fantasies of the US jingoists that India is some strong ally for Australia etc.”
=========================
Wranslide, I’m not so sure India is committed to its relationship with Russia for its own sake, but rather as a counterweight to act as a long term deterrent to predations by its real long-term territorial and economic rival, China. If China were to align itself more closely and more explicitly with Russia, then this might change India’s calculation of the worth of its own alignment with Russia. At any rate, probing any possible fault lines in the India-Russia relationship with a view to elbowing out Russia’s utility to India is well worth the West trying, IMHO.
Thanks, BK.
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 32 Green 11 IND 13 (??) others 7. Impossible to reliably estimate 2PP when the IND vote again looks so excessive but I estimate 56.3 to Labor. Resolve has had many very strong readings for Labor in polls lately.
Francis Dearnley has an excellent little section in this latest episode of the UK Telegraph’s podcast “Ukraine: The Latest”, from the 9:44 mark to the 13:22 mark. [C@t, if you can post a link here, that would be great. For some reason I’m unable to right now.]
He talks through both the strategic, political and economic importance to Ukraine of their liberation of Crimea from Russia’s illegal occupation, as well as the thoughts of Ret. Gen. Ben Hodges on how Ukraine can expel Russia’s military from there without the need for a full-scale invasion. I haven’t consulted the articles by Hodges which Dearnley references, but will once I have more time. In the meantime, I am curious what other here think about Ukraine’s prospects of rendering Russia’s military occupation of Crimea unviable.
Morning all. Thanks for the morning roundup BK.
Cat
“ And I hope the China fan club on PB hang their heads in shame and apologise for being willing dupes for the biggest enabler of Authoritarian nations on the planet!”
I was once one of those posters on this blog who was optimistic about China’s rise and took part in a protest march against Australia taking part in the predictable folly of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq.
I was right about Iraq, and Afghanistan after Bin Laden was killed in 2011. It was a fool’s errand and we should have gotten out while Rudd or Gillard was still PM.
But the world has changed since then and so has my view of China. China won’t stop growing and I agree with Rudd that we need to learn to live with them and shouldn’t get drawn into fighting over Taiwan. But China is now an authoritarian dictatorship that we need to be able to defend ourselves from.
I would go a step further and say Australia now needs to step away from enabling other authoritarian regimes with a high risk of causing wars. I’m thinking of MBS in Saudi Arabia and several other gulf states.
Soc,
I’m not saying, turn China into a pariah State, but what I am saying is that if China thinks it can rule the world, it’s got another think coming.
https://youtu.be/aGCdLKXNF3w
🙂
https://youtu.be/E3UaJEjf_XA
‘wranslide says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 8:29 am
Macarthur
This is plain wrong
MaccaRB, that is right. I’m less hopeful about SA than I am about India, because the more China aligns itself with Russia, the more inclined India will view Russia warily.
India has been a long term ally and supporter of Russia regardless of the posture of China to Russia. It will remain so despite the fantasies of the US jingoists that India is some strong ally for Australia etc.’
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Oh. Golly. What about US jingoists?
The India/Russia and China/Pakistan axes + US vacillation on the two axes are long established patterns.
That said, neither of the axes are formalized by treaties. Both the axes have been subject to significant variation. Like when China knocked some contested territory off Pakistan.
Other than that, India has had a strong and ideological neutralist position on foreign policy since Independence.
Prating about jingoes aside, what is shifting the balance in India foreign policy? It is that China is grabbing contest Indian territory, is encircling India geo-strategically, is building strategic roads in contested territory, is building strategic bases inside Bhutan, is destablizing the north-east territories, is building naval bases in Ceylon, Pakistan, has basing rights in the Red Sea and has a permanent naval presence in the Indian Ocean. China is also spending a masssive motsa modernizing the PLA and is engaged in the biggest naval build up in world peace time history. Further, it has built around a dozen military bases in the South China Sea. Further it conducts regular incursions of Taiwan’s airspace with military aircraft.
India’s response is to tilt to the US and to the West is by way of counterbalancing China’s aggressive imperialism. It is doing so in the usual Indian tradition: nothing formal and nothing much tied down.
In that sense, from an Indian perspective AUKUS is all about sending China a stronger-than-usual diplomatic signal.
From the Dawn Patrol:
According to Paul Sakkal and Sumeyya Ilanbey, senior Victorian Liberal figures, including at least one MP and staff in the offices of state and federal parliamentarians, have been drawn into a potentially damaging defamation case that will go to court today.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/senior-liberals-ordered-to-produce-documents-to-unmask-mystery-blogger-20230228-p5co67.html
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All roads surely lead to the Sukkar faction…
Bridget Archer could always defect to Labor. 😉
(from previous thread)
davo says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 5:00 am
And then suddenly, just like magic, another Teal sprang forth…
“Liberal forces planning to dump Bridget Archer before next election,
veteran party adviser warns”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/01/liberal-forces-planning-to-dump-bridget-archer-before-next-election-veteran-party-adviser-warns
demented potato dutton is purging all the moderates, that’ll get the punters flocking back
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That could make for an interesting 3 cornered contest in Bass, which is on a 1.43% margin.
Unlike classic “Teal” seats, Labor would want to win this one. Still, if Archer was an Independent, Labor probably preferences her above Coalition.
Any analysis of how this might play out?
C@tmomma @ #44 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 9:10 am
LOL, hadnt thought of that. She’s said she is a true blue blood liberal. The Tas branch of the Labor party would poop their pants, it’d take federal intervention to make it stick.
I’m off to my first local branch meeting this week since I moved back to Tasmania. I’ll ask 😉
“ Paul Keating should hang his head in shame as well. He must be getting old and addled not to have seen China’s true intentions coming a mile off!”
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C@t is not a fan of Paul Keating, whose whole economic and foreign policies were all about opening up Australia to the world. According to C@t, we should be forget all that and embrace economic protectionism and nationalism, along with a slavish adherence to the Alliance.
The whole lamentable plan can be characterised as a return to the policies of the Chifley government in the late 1940s.
C@t has added another dimension however, a proposal to stop selling commodities to the Chinese. So national bankruptcy is an added benefit.
Boerwar @ Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 9:09 am:
“India’s response is to tilt to the US and to the West is by way of counterbalancing China’s aggressive imperialism. It is doing so in the usual Indian tradition: nothing formal and nothing much tied down.
In that sense, from an Indian perspective AUKUS is all about sending China a stronger-than-usual diplomatic signal.”
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BW, do you think India needs anything else from the US or its allies, in addition to their being an object for India’s projection of diplomatic muscularity towards China?
#weatheronPB
Warmth pushes my back.
The blank sky troubles my eyes.
I seek the shadows.
It’s the narrowing.
I see the shadows lengthening
From the land of Murdoch where the shadows lie.