If there’s been any polling relevant to the federal tier over the past week or so it’s escaped my attention, other than the weekly Roy Morgan numbers, with have Labor’s two-party lead in from 58.5-41.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13.5%. This was conducted last Monday through to Sunday, with no detail provided on sample size or survey method. The tracking polling of international leaders’ approval conducted by US pollster Morning Consult has recorded a slight weakening in Anthony Albanese’s standing over the past few weeks, with a current result of 57% approval and 31% disapproval, respectively down three and up four from the start of the year. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which makes use of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Essential Research and Freshwater Strategy, likewise records a declining trend in Albanese’s net approval over the past two months.
‘Enough Already says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 9:17 am
Boerwar @ Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 9:09 am:
“India’s response is to tilt to the US and to the West is by way of counterbalancing China’s aggressive imperialism. It is doing so in the usual Indian tradition: nothing formal and nothing much tied down.
In that sense, from an Indian perspective AUKUS is all about sending China a stronger-than-usual diplomatic signal.”
==================
BW, do you think India needs anything else from the US or its allies, in addition to their being an object for India’s projection of diplomatic muscularity towards China?’
=====================================
I’m not sure how the Indian Government sees the world. One of the important elements in the calculations is that it is dominated by Hindu nationalism. Modi has done some nasty things to India’s islamic citizens.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 7:25 am
It’s debatable whether India still counts as a democracy . Being arrested for criticising the PM (Modi) would be considered proof by most people that you’re not a democracy.
India , Turkey , China all playing an opportunistic game wrt Ukraine.
____________
Perhaps there are parallels (for different reasons) with the 1930s:
Democracy appeared under threat, dictatorships on the right (Germany, Italy, Japan) and left (USSR) appeared strong and dynamic.
The US was mired in isolationism.
I think today the US is struggling to be democratic and some of the internal forces attacking its democratic structures are trying to pull it towards isolationism.
China appears strong, but has demographic issues going forward. India could be a lot of things – including dangerous.
Several European democracies seem to be lurching to the far right.
Different times to the 1930s but similarly hard to navigate.
UK Cartoons:
Peter Brookes on #RishiSunak #EU #NIProtocol #IrishBorder #Brexit #BorisJohnson #DUP
Martin Rowson on #RishiSunak #EU #NIProtocol #IrishBorder #Brexit #BorisJohnson #DUP
Patrick Blower on #Brexit #KeirStarmer #NorthernIrelandDeal
Dave Brown on #RishiSunak #WindsorFramework #EU #NIProtocol #IrishBorder #Brexit #BorisJohnson #DUP
Patrick Blower on #RishiSunak #NIProtocol #Brexit #NorthernIrelandDeal #DUP
Christian Adams on #Borisjohnson #RishiSunak #NIProtocol #Brexit #NorthernIrelandDeal #EU
Graeme Keyes on #TomatoShortages #NIProtocol #Brexit #RishiSunak #Brexit #NorthernIrelandDeal #EU
Martyn Turner on #Borisjohnson #Ireland #NIProtocol #Brexit #RishiSunak #Brexit #NorthernIrelandDeal #EU
Morten Morland on #RishiSunak Ursula #vonderLeyen #KingCharles #NorthernIrelandDeal
Finally for fans of Pink Floyd and Yes Minister:
Political Cartoon
@Cartoon4sale
I see Gerald Scarfe’s previous home in Cheyne Walk is being gutted.
I’m pretty sure that this is the Tasmanian branch at the moment (my apologies to any local branch members here, take it up with me on Thursday)
Erdogan is a bit preoccupied at the moment in Türkiye. Trying to get re-elected, as well as attempting to put his country back together again.
Thanks BK.
The mainstream media is failing in its duty to hold the Coalition to account as it continues falsified scare campaigns against Labor, writes Victoria Fielding after seeing coverage on Labor’s superannuation announcement.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/liberal-scare-campaigns-super-lies-promoted-by-media,17276
____________
Victoria Fielding doesn’t seem to realise that “holding the Coalition to account” isn’t the duty of the msm.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/28/stuart-robert-said-we-will-double-down-after-being-advised-robodebt-was-unlawful-inquiry-told
I’m sure that Roberts had a good giggle when he heard all this and will uncurl out of a fetal position by Thursday. 🙂
Lots there for him to speak to, but i really did like the “we will double down” thing.
And i wonder at the part….
“She added there were suggestions from some ministers that the government might “stop the process, but not repay the debts” or “stop the process but not tell anyone” or “stop the process and only repay if people appealed””
Of course, “some ministers” could i suppose just mean Morrison?? 🙂
Mostly Interested @ #46 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 9:16 am
The Tasmanian Branch needs a good dose of salts. 😉
imacca @ #57 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 9:31 am
… In consultation with Robert.
Just as Labor gave John Howard no latitude over his GST strategy, the Coalition will give Labor none over this, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/chalmers-never-ever-super-moment-aims-to-get-the-politics-right-20230228-p5co2z
The AFR editorial judges that Labor’s super tax caps strike a fair balance.
https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-super/labor-s-super-tax-caps-strike-a-fair-balance-20230227-p5co0m
____________
Faint praise from the Fin.
Well, let’s explore Coorey’s GST parallel.
25 years ago, Fairfax (as it was then) led the msm trumpet calls for a GST (“tax reform!”) AND explained to the electorate that Howard breaking his “never ever” promise would be true leadership.
Where was Costello media’s call for super reform in recent weeks?
There will be few ex Ministers that went up this path…
including Stuart Robert..
Misfeasance in public office
Elements of the tort
The defendant must be the holder of a public office.
The defendant must have purportedly exercised a power that was an incident of that office.
The defendant’s exercise of power must have been invalid or otherwise lacking lawful authority.
https://www.ags.gov.au/legal-briefing-no-115
I had a video html embed fail – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUHk2RSMCS8
China are dealing with their own economic and political issues right now. They are basically being warned off by the west in supporting Russia going forward.
The release of dept of energy report stating low probability that virus may have leaked from lab, is part of the strategy me thinks.
Ive always felt that the close proximity of the wuhan lab and wuhan wet market was consequential.
Could it be that animals were sourced and traded through that avenue.
In any event, if there is clear proof that the virus was leashed on the world due to any negligent practices, China could very well be financially vulnerable to legal class actions.
Few will weep for the predicament of those affected by the super changes, but the self-managed super fund community will be hit particularly hard, writes Jess Irvine.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/3-million-in-super-take-comfort-in-tax-benefits-past-20230228-p5cobw.html
____________
“…hit particularly hard, writes Jess Irvine…”
Just think about this comment for a minute.
Someone with $3m super is forced to survive on $150k a year.
Someone with $4m super is forced to survive on $200k a year. On the last $1m of their balance, they will, from 2025, be taxed at 30%, not 15. So their tax bill climbs from $600k to $750k.
My heart bleeds.
Self-serving crapola from Irvine.
Cough syrups, lozenges containing pholcodine recalled by Therapeutic Goods Administration over anaphylaxis risk
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-28/tga-recalls-cancels-cough-medicines-pholcodine-ingredient/102035896
“On the last $1m of their balance, they will, from 2025, be taxed at 30%, not 15. So their tax bill climbs from $600k to $750k.”
The tax is on earnings, isn’t it?
Snowy 2.0’s star tunnelling machine Florence is bogged in Kosciuszko’s soft earth and the diva’s delay is turning heads to the troubled mega-project’s future and industry’s capacity to deliver, writes Tom Dusevic.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/calls-for-snowy-20-to-be-subject-to-frequent-reviews-in-line-with-performance-guidelines/news-story/634a6bca02ffa851fee5763bf1f070b9?amp
____________
Anyone out there done a cost/benefit analysis on canceling Snowy 2.0 and re-directing funding to renewable storage projects that actually work?
Presumably when the class action was settled, all recipients of damages agreed not to sue the Cth, any more, in relation to Robodebt.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 8:09 am
Good morning all, thank you, BK.
15
cloudy
still
Summer’s a gone.
—————————————————————————————
I can tell you where it has gone to, Brisbane!
Start of Autumn and it’s 33-36 degrees and humid.
“… In consultation with Robert.”
no, no, no, no………….
although it may have come up at a prayer meeting, with appeals to a higher power that they not get caught??
Cronus
Hope you are recovering well from your surgery?
Misfeasance of public officer being a tort looks like only damages as a remedy?
Plus it needs a plaintiff to run it.
Extortion and conspiracy to extort is a crime with crimal sanctions of gaol etc. Would have thought ministers being the legal entity responsible could be prosecuted unless there is some immunity provision?
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 9:43 am
No it’s all ok Talcumn did the original cost be if it analysis on the back of a postage stamp… just below the bit that had NBN workings.. all good
Alright, kiddies! Now that Labor has broken their first ironclad election promise (not to touch superannuation) in order to put a very small bandaid on the bleeding wound that is the Australian superannuation system – a wound that subsidizes millionaires to the tune of billions of dollars – surely now is the time to also revisit the stage three tax cuts, which are even more regressive?
Why wait?
Pueo @ #65 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 9:40 am
Who knew there was an interaction with general anaesthetics? I guess it makes sense though.
“The tax is on earnings, isn’t it?”
Yah……unless its been through salary sacrifice then the $ in the balance have had the tax paid on them.
This is not really going to be a burden for the people affected. I would prefer if they had capped at maybe $2mill but i reckon the ALP have played the politics of this well.
Would really like them to leverage the concerns on housing stress to start winding back negative gearing but that is a different issue. I liked the previous proposals that NG apply to new builds only. Maybe they will go a path where NG only applies to 1 or two properties?? More complex but maybe acceptable in the sameish way the super caps are??
I’ve always felt that the close proximity of the Wuhan lab and Wuhan wet market was consequential.
Me too.
The tax is on earnings. A person with a super balance of $4 million assuming earnings of 5% will pay an extra $200000 x 0.15 x (1/4) = $7500 of tax a year.
Personally, I need it to update my golf clubs and my mobile phone!
“Why wait?”
Easy one. Because they are not halfwit politically illiterate Liberals like you P1. 🙂
Player One @ #74 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 9:50 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F4qzPbcFiA
Victoria Fielding doesn’t seem to realise that “holding the Coalition to account” isn’t the duty of the msm.
Fielding still has a point though. It didn’t stop Newscorp and the media slamming Labor’s 2016 campaign ‘save our medicare’ as a lie. Newscorp are the Liberal party’s henchmen and have worked in tandem with the Liberals to destroy Labor policies over the years. Ran 13 out of 14 front pages on the mining tax in two weeks in the Australian when Kevin Rudd was PM.
imacca @ #76 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 9:52 am
Patricia Karvelas interviewed the PM on RN this morning and she asked him about CGT and NG. A definitive ‘No’ was the answer. She said this was after the Treasurer had left the door open on TV this morning.
imacca @ #79 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 9:53 am
That will step into a Liberal trap.
When you look at the kerfuffle over the Super changes, just put that on steroids for abandoning the S3 tax cuts.
C@tmomma @ #77 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 9:53 am
I think most thinking people would have “low confidence” in your suggestion.
Mostly Interested
“ I’ve been waiting for the LNP hammer to drop on Bridget. She has been a pretty free agent, but this seems to be a position the voters of Bass support. If she sat as a pure independent I’d expect Labor to pick the seat up next time. Bass flips between Labor and Liberal more often than a coin in a two up game. JLN has been very keen to recruit Bridget, but she has been playing her cards close to her chest on this one. Not sure they are a great personal fit, but Bass voters might back her is she did join the JLN, it’ll be down to a personal choice that Bridget makes.”
——————————————————————————————-
It seems more like a thought bubble to me from Abetz, a FRWNJ who never came to grips with the 20th century far less the 21st century. I could think of very few people more out of touch with the real world in Australia than Eric Abetz. Disendorsement of Archer would be political hara kiri, incredibly destabilising for the Libs in Tasmania and further evidence nationally that the Libs are still not listening to the majority. Dare I say it, the quiet Australians. 😆
Re NSW polling…
1. NSW has Optional Preferential Voting (OPV), which makes primary vote figures more important than 2PP
2. In 2019, the Coalition received 41.58% PV and won 48 seats (of 93 – a slim majority)
3. All the polls I’ve seen have the Coalition PV around 3-5% lower this time, and often lower than Labor’s PV (very important in OPV)
On the available figures, Coalition majority govt is the least likely outcome, followed by Coalition minority govt.
How’s the Costello Meeeja narrative going?
You are all admitting that the stage three tax cuts are far more consequential than the superannuation changes.
So, Labor is happy to break ironclad promises for minnows, but not for whales?
Player One @ Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 10:00 am
“You are all admitting that the stage three tax cuts are far more consequential than the superannuation changes.
So, Labor is happy to break ironclad promises for minnows, but not for whales?”
LOL! Primary school arithmetic is not your forte.
Carry on! 🙂
Sceptic says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 9:46 am
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 9:43 am
No it’s all ok Talcumn did the original cost be if it analysis on the back of a postage stamp… just below the bit that had NBN workings.. all good
____________
I’m so relieved.
Enough Already says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 8:50 am
Francis Dearnley has an excellent little section in this latest episode of the UK Telegraph’s podcast “Ukraine: The Latest”, from the 9:44 mark to the 13:22 mark. [C@t, if you can post a link here, that would be great. For some reason I’m unable to right now.]
He talks through both the strategic, political and economic importance to Ukraine of their liberation of Crimea from Russia’s illegal occupation, as well as the thoughts of Ret. Gen. Ben Hodges on how Ukraine can expel Russia’s military from there without the need for a full-scale invasion. I haven’t consulted the articles by Hodges which Dearnley references, but will once I have more time. In the meantime, I am curious what other here think about Ukraine’s prospects of rendering Russia’s military occupation of Crimea unviable.
——————————————————————————————-
I think Ukrainian success in Crimea is plausible (in the longer term) and of course justified but there will be a trade-off. All effort expended to achieve such a goal means effort (equipment, resources, soldiers etc) not used elsewhere either to launch a Spring offensive or even to defend areas currently under siege such as Bakhmut etc.
This is not the time for such action as movement of the necessary troops would leave Ukraine’s Northern and Eastern flanks exposed or at least weakened. Ukraine simply doesn’t have a fighting force of the necessary size to attack on all three fronts by adding Crimea in the South at this time imo. It’s a matter of priorities.
“Patricia Karvelas interviewed the PM on RN this morning and she asked him about CGT and NG. A definitive ‘No’ was the answer.”
Hmmm…….CGT on the family home yup definitive No. NG…..actually not a definitive No if its being reported correctly. Think there is wriggle room there, but the political conditions not right at the moment.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 9:57 am
imacca @ #79 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 9:53 am
“Why wait?”
Easy one. Because they are not halfwit politically illiterate Liberals like you P1.
That will step into a Liberal trap.
When you look at the kerfuffle over the Super changes, just put that on steroids for abandoning the S3 tax cuts.
____________
P1 isn’t illiterate. P1’s policy prescriptions – nay requirements! – for Labor seem carefully calculated to maximise the probability of the return to govt of the Coalition at the earliest possible moment, hence entrenching lack of action (indeed, negative action, if there’s such a term) on climate change, a cause P1 claims to champion.
P1 isn’t illiterate.
Hi everyone. I’ve recovered from my bad mood of a couple of days back. I hope all of you are doing ok.
I note a couple of posts yesterday that seemed to be baiting me (or at least inviting me) to comment on the superannuation announcement yesterday. So here goes.
As I had previously posted, I think that placing a $3m cap on the amount of money that can be held in a super fund in the accumulation phase and still receive the concessional tax rate of 15 per cent on its earnings is entirely justified, and I’m sure the criticism about it will die down shortly: especially as the feature of only taxing additional funds at only 30 cents in the dollar rather than at the marginal tax rate is very lenient.
My concern, as it always was, relates to the peculiar and arguably inept process by which this measure has come into existence.
Here’s how I think the Hawke-Keating or Howard Governments would have played it:
1. The Revenue Committee of Cabinet would have looked at a paper proposing some changes to super tax, with full details having been worked out, including how defined benefits schemes would be affected.
2. The Treasurer would give a background briefing to a favoured press gallery journalist that the Government is greatly concerned about the rapidly growing cost of super tax concessions and, without breaking their promise during the campaign that there would be no “major changes” to super, they felt there was an urgent need to act.
3. At the same time, the Grattan Institute and other friendly academics and commentators would be primed to come out with stuff about how super tax concessions would soon cost more than the age pension, etc. Ideally, the commentators would call for more severe changes than the government was considering.
4. The debate on the issue would be monitored. Neither the PM, the Treasurer or any other minister would enter into a public discussion about any of the details of what was being considered, other than to confirm that any changes would be minor as promised (and that would be an opportunity for the PM to clarify that this had been the position all along, and that any suggestion that he had said there would be absolutely “no changes” was a misinterpretation of Labor’s position).
5. Full Cabinet would then sign off on a final version of the proposal, and it would be immediately announced, taking effect from the start of the next financial year.
Alternatively (and ideally), all of the above would have been done in the lead up to Budget night, when the new measures would have been announced.
What actually occurred bore a superficial resemblance to what I have outlined above, but was actually a dog’s breakfast. Albo, Chalmers and Jones all said far more than they should have done about the details of what was being considered, creating undue speculation and allowing the Opposition to mount a scare campaign that made it all sound much worse than it actually was. And, for reasons I can’t figure, the discussion took place in February rather than in April-May in the lead-up to the Budget. And now a definitive announcement has been made before all the details have been worked out (in particular, how it will affect defined benefit super). And it won’t come into effect for two more years, begging the question of why it needed to be announced now.
To me it looks pretty inept, but it probably won’t matter, as – once the right-wing media stops shouting about it and goes back to attacking the Voice – everyone will forget about it.
But I still can’t work out what was the point of it all? Media strategists sometimes suggest starting kerfuffles like this to distract from something else: a classic instance was Keating starting a debate about changing the flag to try to detract from something (was it the fact that he was converting his promised “L-A-W’ tax cuts into superannuation tax concesssions, or something else: I can’t quite remember).
But I can’t see any reason at the moment for the Government to want to create a diversion. It’s all a bit odd, but it’s over now.
Final disclaimer: the changes don’t affect me one bit. My partner and I can only dream of ever having $3m in super between the two of us, let alone each.
Cronus says:
Wednesday, March 1, 2023 at 9:58 am
Mostly Interested
“ I’ve been waiting for the LNP hammer to drop on Bridget. She has been a pretty free agent, but this seems to be a position the voters of Bass support. If she sat as a pure independent I’d expect Labor to pick the seat up next time. Bass flips between Labor and Liberal more often than a coin in a two up game. JLN has been very keen to recruit Bridget, but she has been playing her cards close to her chest on this one. Not sure they are a great personal fit, but Bass voters might back her is she did join the JLN, it’ll be down to a personal choice that Bridget makes.”
——————————————————————————————-
It seems more like a thought bubble to me from Abetz, a FRWNJ who never came to grips with the 20th century far less the 21st century. I could think of very few people more out of touch with the real world in Australia than Eric Abetz. Disendorsement of Archer would be political hara kiri, incredibly destabilising for the Libs in Tasmania and further evidence nationally that the Libs are still not listening to the majority. Dare I say it, the quiet Australians.
____________
Not the “quiet, curtain-changing Australians” – the stuff of Scomo nightmares?!
Oh, no!
Snappy Tom @ #92 Wednesday, March 1st, 2023 – 10:14 am
It may seem that way to those unwilling (or unable) to entertain the notion that Labor’s policies are not perfect.
Other than NSW Labor (of which I have personal knowledge and experience) I generally criticize policies rather than parties. Some people apparently can’t see the difference.
The DOE report makes that attribution of the source of COVID with low confidence, and other US intelligence doesn’t all agree with it so I can’t see anyone winning compensation on the back of it. It seems to be based on the circumstantial evidence of the 3 lab workers who were hospitalised in Nov 2019
P1 has made their preferred framing for Labor’s following of their ‘policy advice’ crystal clear: ‘breaking ironclad election promises’. They have leapt upon that framing immediately at the first whiff of an opportunity. That tells you all you need to know about how seriously Labor – or anyone wanting a long-term Labor government – should take P1’s advice.
Negative Gearing on property
I think NG has had the effect of injecting capital ( subsidized by Taxpayers) into the property market, increasing rental supply with inflated rents to cover profits
It would be a lot smarter to kill NG & allow open market for renters to purchase
This would also drive costs down for proponents of Build to rent schemes
“P1 isn’t illiterate.”
P1 pines for Andrew Constance and barrels of LNP pork for the south coast.
One of the many aspects of governance left to rot under the Liberals was product testing. Leave it to the market! What could possibly go wrong? As it turns out, plenty.
For example, when the VW Dieselgate scandal hit, it turned out that Australia was not even doing lab testing of (imported) cars for fuel economy or emissions. The Fed Env Det website simply printed the manufacturers claims as their actual emissions and fuel economy on its (useless) website. FAA testing of a sample showed most claims were wrong, some false by up to 40%.
For example, when the VW Dieselgate scandal hit, it turned out that Australia was not even doing lab testing of (imported) cars for fuel economy or emissions.
Now in the rush for EVs, Japanese testing found that BYD is using Hexavalent Chromium in its electric buses. This is both toxic and carcinogenic. We should not be letting these vehicles come here.
https://www.sustainable-bus.com/news/toxic-chemical-hino-byd-bus-stop-japan/
There are some aspects of government product testing, or at least government oversight of it, that really need to be re-implemented. China is a particular problem. The best Chinese products are excellent. The worst are faulty. And they don’t recognise Australian consumer law in China. You need product testing to tell which is which.