New South Wales election minus three weeks

Both major parties still getting their houses in order on the candidate selection front with just days to go before the closure of nominations.

Roy Morgan added to a glut of recent New South Wales state polling on Friday, and while this one was recently conducted and not published a month after the event as per its recent form, it was conducted through the dubious means of SMS. The poll had Labor leading 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 33.5%, Coalition 32.5%, Greens 11% and One Nation 8.5%. Dominic Perrottet recorded a favourable split of 53-47 in an all-or-nothing personal approval question, but Chris Minns led 54-46 as preferred premier. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 981.

Further developments:

• The Liberals still don’t have a candidate in Kiama, which Gareth Ward hopes to retain as an independent after being dumped from the party. The Illawarra Star reported reopened nominations just days ago after the only nominee, local poet and author Gail Morgan, was rejected by the party’s candidate review committee. Morgan had told Nine News in 2021 that allegations against Gareth Ward that would eventually result in charges of indecent assault were a “stitch up”, and wrote an email to Chris Minns in which she said she would vote for him if he acted against over-development. The report quoted a Liberal source who suggested the party would run either half-heartedly or not at all against Ward, who retained strong local support and would be welcomed back into the party if acquitted.

• The Liberals have chosen Jacqui Munro, consultant for public relations agency Red Havas and president of the state party’s women’s council, to replace ousted incumbent Peter Poulos on the Legislative Council ticket. Munro won moderate faction endorsement for the position with support from deputy leader Matt Kean, again overlooking Shayne Mallard, who was dropped to help address the party’s gender balance problem, and Melanie Gibbons, who lost preselection in her lower house seat in Holsworthy and had been promised a position in the ministry by Dominic Perrottet. The state executive ratified Munro with 13 votes in favour, nine against and two abstentions, the closeness of the result reflecting objections over her history of progressive statements on social media.

• After a long delay, Labor has chosen David Saliba, a management consultant and former Australian Federal Police officer, as its candidate for the safe seat of Fairfield, which will be vacated with the retirement of Guy Zangari. Saliba was anointed by the party’s national executive ahead of Fairfield councillor Carmen Lazar. Saliba unsuccessfully challenged Zangari for preselection before the last election with backers including Chris Bowen, who holds the corresponding federal seat of McMahon.

• Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone continues to keep observers guessing as to whether he will submit a nomination form he says he has filled out for the seat of Cabramatta. The Daily Telegraph further reported a fortnight ago that Carbone might also be “running a candidate in the neighbouring seat of Fairfield”, without identifying who that might be.

• Steve Whan has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for Monaro, which he held for the party from 2003 to 2011. Whan filled a vacancy in the Legislative Council after John Barilaro won the seat for the Nationals in 2011, which he relinquished in 2015 when making an unsuccessful first comeback bid in his old seat. The parties initial nominee, former NRL state-of-origin representative Terry Campese, announced his withdrawal in mid-February.

• The Liberals have endorsed Craig Chung, former Ryde and Sydney councillor and owner of an education business, to run in Kogarah against Chris Minns, who has been left with a non-existent margin after a Liberal swing in 2019 and an unfavourable redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

107 comments on “New South Wales election minus three weeks”

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  1. moderatesays:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 7:47 am
    Sorry Ven – well spotted. You have worked me out. A coalition partisan. I thought I might have covered myself with my previous posting, but your Sherlock Holmes powers of intuition have overtaken me.
    We should have had you on the MH 370 hunt, maybe you can help with Harold Holt search when you are at it.
    Honestly you guys are so delicious. When anyone holds your feet to the fire, you just go to water. Grow up mate.

    Didn’t you know that I was part of Harold Holt search team till recently.
    We have sightings that he like Elvis lived a recluse in American wilderness and died at ripe old age of 110. 🙂

    When Moon landing is a eloborate fake, what else can we believe? That Biden women 2020 election instead of Trump. 🙂

    What I don’t understand is how when anyone holds my feet to the fire, I just go to water. As per science I thought my feet will be burnt instead of turning into water. 🙂

  2. Evan says:
    Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 6:00 am
    As for the Daily Telegraph, they have dropped any pretensions to being evenhanded this election. Yesterday the paper was pro Perrottet and pro Stuart Ayers in Penrith.
    The ABC has a Charter that says it must provide Fair, Accurate and Impartial political news and comment.
    I have always found that to be the case. Without exception.
    As for any other media source, I have not seen or heard of any of their charters, but if any of them do have one, they must have left out the words Fair, Accurate, and Impartial.
    One only has to watch Media Watch to see the ABC’s Charter in play.
    The best 20 minutes of TV you’ll see all week.

    Even better than watching Jenny Woodward deliver the daily weather report.
    She never attacks the Sun, Wind or Rain.
    Now that’s Impartiality !

  3. Today’s SMH pointing out the big gender gap operating in NSW politics this election, and it is hurting Perrottett – well, it doesn’t help the Liberals when they fail to preselect women for winnable lower house seats and their branches instead preselect the same old boring Young Liberal blokes.

  4. I suspect yesterdays total rail meltdown across Sydney will be the nail in the coffin for the Liberals- its all very well to talk about new projects but when a city keeps coming to a standstill people are going to rebel.

    Also interesting to see the state has a $118 billion dollar debt- after everything has been sold off. Wonder what the debt they inherited was???

  5. Certainly awkward for Perrottet and his crew. The SMH at the moment seems to be hoping to avoid the humiliation suffered by the Age at the Victorian election, by trying to appear even handed with a few articles criticising the Liberals.

    NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has apologised for Wednesday’s city-wide train meltdown that paralysed Sydney and said commuters should be given a fare-free day as compensation.

    However, because the NSW government is in caretaker mode, it cannot instruct the Transport Department to offer a fare-free day until after the election.

  6. and also doesnt help the liberals that in order to cover up there lack of woman perottit convinced allex hake alind Netasha mclaron jones to head the upper house ticket desbite the fact she has four years remaining on her current term she just happins to be a former bronwin bishop advisor and anti abortion part of csentre right

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