Roy Morgan added to a glut of recent New South Wales state polling on Friday, and while this one was recently conducted and not published a month after the event as per its recent form, it was conducted through the dubious means of SMS. The poll had Labor leading 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 33.5%, Coalition 32.5%, Greens 11% and One Nation 8.5%. Dominic Perrottet recorded a favourable split of 53-47 in an all-or-nothing personal approval question, but Chris Minns led 54-46 as preferred premier. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 981.
Further developments:
• The Liberals still don’t have a candidate in Kiama, which Gareth Ward hopes to retain as an independent after being dumped from the party. The Illawarra Star reported reopened nominations just days ago after the only nominee, local poet and author Gail Morgan, was rejected by the party’s candidate review committee. Morgan had told Nine News in 2021 that allegations against Gareth Ward that would eventually result in charges of indecent assault were a “stitch up”, and wrote an email to Chris Minns in which she said she would vote for him if he acted against over-development. The report quoted a Liberal source who suggested the party would run either half-heartedly or not at all against Ward, who retained strong local support and would be welcomed back into the party if acquitted.
• The Liberals have chosen Jacqui Munro, consultant for public relations agency Red Havas and president of the state party’s women’s council, to replace ousted incumbent Peter Poulos on the Legislative Council ticket. Munro won moderate faction endorsement for the position with support from deputy leader Matt Kean, again overlooking Shayne Mallard, who was dropped to help address the party’s gender balance problem, and Melanie Gibbons, who lost preselection in her lower house seat in Holsworthy and had been promised a position in the ministry by Dominic Perrottet. The state executive ratified Munro with 13 votes in favour, nine against and two abstentions, the closeness of the result reflecting objections over her history of progressive statements on social media.
• After a long delay, Labor has chosen David Saliba, a management consultant and former Australian Federal Police officer, as its candidate for the safe seat of Fairfield, which will be vacated with the retirement of Guy Zangari. Saliba was anointed by the party’s national executive ahead of Fairfield councillor Carmen Lazar. Saliba unsuccessfully challenged Zangari for preselection before the last election with backers including Chris Bowen, who holds the corresponding federal seat of McMahon.
• Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone continues to keep observers guessing as to whether he will submit a nomination form he says he has filled out for the seat of Cabramatta. The Daily Telegraph further reported a fortnight ago that Carbone might also be “running a candidate in the neighbouring seat of Fairfield”, without identifying who that might be.
• Steve Whan has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for Monaro, which he held for the party from 2003 to 2011. Whan filled a vacancy in the Legislative Council after John Barilaro won the seat for the Nationals in 2011, which he relinquished in 2015 when making an unsuccessful first comeback bid in his old seat. The parties initial nominee, former NRL state-of-origin representative Terry Campese, announced his withdrawal in mid-February.
• The Liberals have endorsed Craig Chung, former Ryde and Sydney councillor and owner of an education business, to run in Kogarah against Chris Minns, who has been left with a non-existent margin after a Liberal swing in 2019 and an unfavourable redistribution.
Moderate don’t understanding your post but go back to 1953 election before I was born..
?
Speaking of the 1953 election, could this be McGirr’s revenge?
James McGirr was knifed by caucus a few months before the election and Labor then won under J J Cahill.
His grand nephew Joe McGirr might deny Government to Labor
Just been to letter box to find a flyer from the “PublicEdParty”.
Can anyone elaborate on this party? Have googled its website as given on the flyer but have been greeted with “Caution” signals all over the page so not going any further there atm.
Moderate Says:-
Monday, March 6, 2023 at 2:41 pm
98.6
At this point in time previously, Mick quinlivan says ALP will (w)in at the previous nsw elections:
2019, 2015, 2011, 2007, 2003, 1999, 1995, 1991, 1988, 1984, 1981, 1978, 1976, 1973, 1971, 1968, 1965….
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Mick Quinlivan no doubt,
A TRUE BELIEVER, who has seen THE LIGHT ON THE HILL.
Not many of us still around.
G’day fellas, a bit from today’s Australian on the election – the Liberals conceding Parramatta is “gone” for them, Ryde and Oatley they are concerned about, Leppington is said to be “line ball”, and Stuart Ayers in considerable trouble in Penrith.
Moderate Says:-
Monday, March 6, 2023 at 2:41 pm
At this point in time previously, Mick quinlivan says ALP will (w)in at the previous nsw elections:
2019, 2015, 2011, 2007, 2003, 1999, 1995, 1991, 1988, 1984, 1981, 1978, 1976, 1973, 1971, 1968, 1965….
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says:
Mick Quinlivan no doubt,
A TRUE BELIEVER, who has seen THE LIGHT ON THE HILL.
Not many of us still around.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says:
I haven’t doubled checked but Mick Q most probably got it right 50% of the time.
Looks like he can get out his leather awl tool to add another notch to his belt soon.
the Liberals conceding Parramatta is “gone” for them, Ryde and Oatley they are concerned about, Leppington is said to be “line ball”, and Stuart Ayers in considerable trouble in Penrith.
I guess it is all over then. All we need is for Maguire Bob to give us the internal Labor polling.
There is an SMH flash that ICAC has found no corrupt conduct in Barilaro’s appointment to New York … not that it matters in PB World I guess
2 WEEKS and 5 days TILL ELECTION
Many Poll Bludgers have said that they know who will win on March 25th.
Many have said they think they know.
Many have said they just don’t know.
Many have started a novena to pray for their party’s win.
Join the poll on Poll Bludger to see who at this stage they think will win on the 25th.
By at this stage, I mean with everything we have experienced about life and politics as at the 6th of March 2023.
This could change as the days or weeks go by.
BUT
Just a simple post,
Labor will win,
OR,
Liberals will win.
No ifs, buts, or maybes, whys or wherefores
I say Labor will win.
Mick Quinlivan says Labor
MABWM says Labor
DESIE says Labor
Malcolm says Labor.
There is no doubt Labor will become the new government
The lib/nats as in the federal,,Victorian elections combined primary vote in the mid 30’s , the election result will be obivous there will be change of government quite early on election night
Interesting reports of the liberal party.. I agree with the assessment of Parramatta but Ryde and Oatley I would say are uncertain with the libs probably favoured in Oatley. I consider if this is true looking at the seats on lower margins the liberals are saying possibly… We are gone…
strange timing icac report just before election clears ayres and barilarow but they had no publick hearings
My own view, is I think the Libs are in more trouble than people think.
Yes, Labor has a hill to climb in terms of the uniform-swing pendulum is significant. But as we’ve seen at the Federal and SA elections, Labor won off the back of larger swings in marginals than the state-wide/national swing.
There’s no reason to suggest this isn’t a reasonable possibility here.
The pendulum is a tool.which measures the impact of FULL preferential voting. With Opv there is a built in extra 2pp margin for the party which most benefited from that voting system . In 2019 this was the coalition but now with Labor “s improved support the opv system will not help the coalition. It appears from opinion polls that the primary vote gap will be minor or Labor may even outpoll the coalition in primary votes. If this happens than opv helps Labor. Compare the gap 2011 2015 and 2019.. each time it dropped more and the Labor seat tally increased. Even in 2019 this pro liberal primary vote gap was 7%. Now this change will allow Labor to win seats from behind making an alp majority government more and more likely
I never ventured before to predict who will win any Australian election.
According to betting agencies NSW Labor is odds on to win Parramatta and Penrith. If that is case on election day or a week after that then NSW Labor will form the government whether it is minority or majority government I am not sure.
”
Moderatesays:
Monday, March 6, 2023 at 2:41 pm
98.6
At this point in time previously, Mick quinlivan says ALP will in at the previous nsw elections:
2019, 2015, 2011, 2007, 2003, 1999, 1995, 1991, 1988, 1984, 1981, 1978, 1976, 1973, 1971, 1968, 1965….
”
Told ya. Moderate is here to ridicule Labor supporters. Not to make any meaningful discussion.
And I repeat Moderate is not Parramatta Moderate/ Newcastle Moderate.
”
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Monday, March 6, 2023 at 5:52 pm
There is an SMH flash that ICAC has found no corrupt conduct in Barilaro’s appointment to New York … not that it matters in PB World I
”
You got to be kidding right?
If that is not corruption then if NSW Labor wins election then they have blank cheque for corruption.
It is morally and ethically wrong. Let DoPe say that ICAC has cleared BRUZ and hence everything is hunkydory and see the reaction of public.
Bennelong Lurker:
Last election they were Voluntary Euthanasia Party, got 1.1% in the upper house. More recently they were the NSW branch of Reason (Jane Caro ran for them in the senate last federal election, got 0.63%). Changing their name twice in four years is a bit of a red flag, but any party with a Fiona Patten connection should be decent enough. Compared to One Nation, Riccardo Bosi, CDP splinter groups etc, you could do a lot worse.
A thoughtful Dom on the job…PR team earning their keep
@sprocket, Dom is planning his attack in Clash of Clans. I know that look.
Some more canabilisng of the Liberal vote..
One Nation’s NSW leader Mark Latham says the party will run in at least 20 seats in the March 25 election, more than twice the number it contested in 2019 as it aims to capitalise on voters deserting major parties.
Latham said candidates were being finalised before nominations close on Wednesday, but the number could be as high as 22. The party ran nine candidates in the 2019 state election.
……
The latest Resolve Political Monitor for the Herald showed Labor is on track to return to government after 12 years in opposition, although one-quarter of voters are still undecided about which party to support. The poll showed Labor’s primary vote at 38 per cent and the Coalition’s at 32 per cent. Other parties, which included One Nation, had a primary vote of 7 per cent.
One Nation is focusing on western Sydney – also set to be the election battleground for Labor and the Coalition – in seats such as Penrith, Londonderry, Camden and Campbelltown, as well as the Hunter Valley including Cessnock, Maitland, Wallsend and Port Stephens.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/latham-doubles-down-one-nation-to-run-in-twice-as-many-seats-in-nsw-election-20230306-p5cppp.html
Sorry Ven – well spotted. You have worked me out. A coalition partisan. I thought I might have covered myself with my previous posting, but your Sherlock Holmes powers of intuition have overtaken me.
We should have had you on the MH 370 hunt, maybe you can help with Harold Holt search when you are at it.
Honestly you guys are so delicious. When anyone holds your feet to the fire, you just go to water. Grow up mate.
actualy one nationis targeting labor seats they want to help the liberals winn just having candadates in more seats does not mean there quaalitysone parties have had candadates in evry seat one nation federaly but in my seat of lindsay the candadate running lived in tasmania
G’day all.
Moderate, love your work mate, totally in agreement with your comment above.
One Nation running candidates in 20 seats will hurt the Libs far more than Labor!
Interesting to read ON are targeting some seats in the Hunter. They did run in Maitland in 2019 and got 11%, with SFF getting 5%, so there is some evidence that these types of parties can get substantial support in parts of the Hunter. Port Stephens is a different demographic, it’s more of a holiday/retirement area without the coal mining history, so maybe not so good for ON. The ALP will easily win all these seats, but I guess ON are hoping to boost their chances in the Legislative Council by also running lower house candidates.
As for the overall election result, after considering consistent polling showing an ALP 2PP of at least 52%, plus the difficult pendulum for the ALP, the improving popularity of Perrottet, the impact of OPV and of a very large cross-bench, my conclusion is I’ve got no idea. But if I had to have a bet, I’d say minority ALP. Which would be good, as it would get rid of the LNP, but also force the ALP to get serious about tackling the scourge of gambling in NSW.
Don’t forget that ON ran Fitzgibbon hard in Hunter.
Latham and Mihailuk show that the path between the NSW Right and One Nation is indeed short, but not paved by good intentions.
Sprocket’s view that the One Nation vote comes from Liberal voters is wishful thinking
Bird of Paradox @3.21 am
Thank you for the information re PublicEdParty.
The SFF have been advertising on TV in the last few days (in Canberra we see NSW regional TV advertising on 7, 9 and 10). TV advertising isn’t cheap so they must have a source of income despite the disputes last year that saw their MPs defecting.
Here’s a chance for Dom to join a RFS team and say “I DO hold a hose mate”.
yes they did well in hunter in 2019 but there candadate stuart bons had a falling out with one nation if he runs again this will split the anti labor vote labor actualy recordid a swing to them in there two hunter seats at risk hunter and close fitsgiben friend meril Swonson in neibering paterson plus desbite lathams retorick he seems to be about as consistent as mihayliouk he said in gillard years labor should do more on climate now his turned in to a skepdick not even the power station could give liberals paterson the curey curey one
is perottit ppopular i think the uniform actualy helped him it got his name out there so it back fired on elliott who hopeid it would damage him another own goal from the hopelis elliott
SPROCKET said this @ 7.23am
The latest Resolve Political Monitor for the Herald showed Labor is on track to return to government after 12 years in opposition, although one-quarter of voters are still undecided about which party to support. The poll showed Labor’s primary vote at 38 per cent and the Coalition’s at 32 per cent. Other parties, which included One Nation, had a primary vote of 7 per cent.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I know the polls always include the ‘still undecideds’, which by the poll above reckons its one-quarter of voters.
You would think that the idea of taking a poll of around 1,200 people is ample to know who is in the lead in that poll at that moment of time and who should win an election without worrying about the undecideds.
As for the 300 undecideds you would have to presume that their votes would fall into the same proportions as those who have decided.
Otherwise why would you bother taking a poll.
One has to ask,”Why bother mentioning them”?
So going by this poll Labor will be in power after March 25th.
its strange not saying a hung parliament isnt posiblebut aspointed out hear before the hung parliament talk buy the liberal suportive media comentators only occurs when labor leads in the pole same talk happind with andrews and last federal elections the only hung parliament we hadrecently was federalthe lastnsw one was 1991 the media are desperate to save the liberals now talking personal popularity even though going by recent record hill hand over mid term to kean any way
CITIZEN (KANE) says of DOPE
Here’s a chance for Dom to join a RFS team and say “I DO hold a hose mate”.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
With 7 kids already, he holds more than a hose.
Aaron newtonsays:
Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:45 pm
is perottit ppopular i think the uniform actualy helped him it got his name out there so it back fired on elliott who hopeid it would damage him another own goal from the hopelis elliott
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Every one of my Jewish friends have said they will not be voting for him.
A family friend who is no longer with us put a hot iron to his wrist to remove his Nazi tattoo concentration camp number because he didn’t want to be reminded of the Nazis. He was not a Jew.
If he was still alive he would not vote for Dope for making light of the murderers that imprisoned him.
If Dope wore the Nazi uniform in Germany he would have ended up in prison.
Melanie Gibbons seeking Liberal preselection for Kiama has to be a very cynical move that the locals down there will see right through.
As for the Daily Telegraph, they have dropped any pretensions to being evenhanded this election. Yesterday the paper was pro Perrottet and pro Stuart Ayers in Penrith.
Gibens like elliott seems desperate to stay in parliament she has been in parliament for 12 years but apart from briefly being a parliamentary secretary has notdun a hole lot perottit seems to be the only one wishing her to stay t she lackeed support both for federal preselection and state upper house
Gibbons as the liberal candidate for Kiama.. they are really running dead. If I were her I would not have stood for Kiama
Thanks Mick. I suspect she doesn’t take her political advice from you old son…
Re Kiama, my guess is that both Ward and Gibbons are just optimising their post-parliamentary payout. Correct me if wrong, but methinks the termination package is better if you are defeated than if you dont recontest – even if its in a different seat.
Whatever, chalk it up in the Labor column now.
Of course Melanie would not take advice from me. I just said what I would do if I were her. From a political view I am quite happy to have her stand..
her partner kent johns is on suverlind shier cowncil he is so baddroped to third spot but still won due to high liberal vote
Some seat by seat betting odds, for those who find those things reliable of course:
https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Politics/competitions/NSW%20Politics/matches/NSW%20State%20Election
So according to one betting agency, Labor favourites to pick up the following seats from the Liberals: Penrith, Riverstone, Parramatta, Leppington, Heathcote, Winston Hills seems to be 50-50.
Another piece of good news for Chris Minns – Frank Carbone has decided not to run as an independent candidate in Cabramatta and he won’t run a similar candidate in Fairfield. Carbone, according to Ten News, is not happy with the promises Perrottett had made for the South West of Sydney.
so Carbone admitting he was basickly only planning on running to help perottit but he backed out whenlabor matched his demadnd to upgradde local hosspital similar case with the olc gteam especialy Steve christou constantly attacking his owld allies like julia thinn but he did not actualy chalinege her dont know whiy him and Carbone dont just join the libers carbone helped lose federalfowler desbite kenearley being the rong candadate now liberals have parashuted the litle known back bencher Gibons in to kiama
Ha! Gibbons got nested in Kiama. What a mess.
Sydney’s train woes are proving most unhelpful to Dom Perrottet’s reelection prospects. There are several stories in the SMH, e.g. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/off-track-sydney-train-chaos-puts-pressure-on-perrottet-government-20230308-p5cqk1.html.
Funnily enough, not so much in the Telecrap.
The Daily Telegraph no doubt will give today’s train chaos minimal coverage, or blame it on those “evil train unions”. And there’ll be another double paged spread of some huge new Dom Perrottett announcement and an indepth profile of a Liberal candidate.