New South Wales election minus three weeks

Both major parties still getting their houses in order on the candidate selection front with just days to go before the closure of nominations.

Roy Morgan added to a glut of recent New South Wales state polling on Friday, and while this one was recently conducted and not published a month after the event as per its recent form, it was conducted through the dubious means of SMS. The poll had Labor leading 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 33.5%, Coalition 32.5%, Greens 11% and One Nation 8.5%. Dominic Perrottet recorded a favourable split of 53-47 in an all-or-nothing personal approval question, but Chris Minns led 54-46 as preferred premier. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 981.

Further developments:

• The Liberals still don’t have a candidate in Kiama, which Gareth Ward hopes to retain as an independent after being dumped from the party. The Illawarra Star reported reopened nominations just days ago after the only nominee, local poet and author Gail Morgan, was rejected by the party’s candidate review committee. Morgan had told Nine News in 2021 that allegations against Gareth Ward that would eventually result in charges of indecent assault were a “stitch up”, and wrote an email to Chris Minns in which she said she would vote for him if he acted against over-development. The report quoted a Liberal source who suggested the party would run either half-heartedly or not at all against Ward, who retained strong local support and would be welcomed back into the party if acquitted.

• The Liberals have chosen Jacqui Munro, consultant for public relations agency Red Havas and president of the state party’s women’s council, to replace ousted incumbent Peter Poulos on the Legislative Council ticket. Munro won moderate faction endorsement for the position with support from deputy leader Matt Kean, again overlooking Shayne Mallard, who was dropped to help address the party’s gender balance problem, and Melanie Gibbons, who lost preselection in her lower house seat in Holsworthy and had been promised a position in the ministry by Dominic Perrottet. The state executive ratified Munro with 13 votes in favour, nine against and two abstentions, the closeness of the result reflecting objections over her history of progressive statements on social media.

• After a long delay, Labor has chosen David Saliba, a management consultant and former Australian Federal Police officer, as its candidate for the safe seat of Fairfield, which will be vacated with the retirement of Guy Zangari. Saliba was anointed by the party’s national executive ahead of Fairfield councillor Carmen Lazar. Saliba unsuccessfully challenged Zangari for preselection before the last election with backers including Chris Bowen, who holds the corresponding federal seat of McMahon.

• Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone continues to keep observers guessing as to whether he will submit a nomination form he says he has filled out for the seat of Cabramatta. The Daily Telegraph further reported a fortnight ago that Carbone might also be “running a candidate in the neighbouring seat of Fairfield”, without identifying who that might be.

• Steve Whan has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for Monaro, which he held for the party from 2003 to 2011. Whan filled a vacancy in the Legislative Council after John Barilaro won the seat for the Nationals in 2011, which he relinquished in 2015 when making an unsuccessful first comeback bid in his old seat. The parties initial nominee, former NRL state-of-origin representative Terry Campese, announced his withdrawal in mid-February.

• The Liberals have endorsed Craig Chung, former Ryde and Sydney councillor and owner of an education business, to run in Kogarah against Chris Minns, who has been left with a non-existent margin after a Liberal swing in 2019 and an unfavourable redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

107 comments on “New South Wales election minus three weeks”

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  1. Can you make anything of Minns leading the preferred premier question 54-46? Every other poll has Perrottet modestly ahead. It may mean the sample is biased towards ALP voters and the two party preferred is closer than 52.5-47.5.

  2. It could be a very long night, if not week, for a clear election result on this polling.
    Good to see the ALP still ahead, but I would be happier with a couple of per cent, more.

  3. NSW Labor leader Chris Minns will launch his official campaign on Sunday with a focus on the key election issue of skills and job creation, promising to spend $93 million to hire an extra 1000 apprentices and trainees by 2026 to work across the state government.

    In a major election pitch ahead of the March 25 poll, Labor will set targets across the government for on-the-job training in agencies such as Sydney Water, Essential Energy, National Parks and Wildlife Services, and the party’s proposed Homes NSW and NSW Energy Security Corporation.

    In a sign that the party is bullish about its chances of seizing the neighbouring Liberal-held seat of Oatley, Minns chose Hurstville for his first launch as leader. The suburb straddles the border with Kogarah, Minns’ ultra-marginal seat, which he holds by just 0.1 per cent.

    He will be joined by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who will tell several hundred party faithful that Minns is a “leader who doesn’t pick fights but doesn’t shy away from them, either”.

    Albanese will say that NSW can choose between an ageing government or a fresh start.

  4. There are 2 clear results, if opinion polling is accurate that the
    Lib/nats combined primary vote 32.5%
    Lib/nats can not form either minority or majority government
    Result Labor government
    The questions will be. Labor minority or majority government

  5. Kiama must be a concern. The liberals have for the sake of integrity to run in this seat. For liberal party head office to rule out the only candidate who nominated but allow Ayres to run is a insane decision.
    The run dead or not nominate is a gutless decision. Mr Ward is still suspended from parliament and this suspension is not likely to be lifted any time soon….. fill in the blanks

  6. Mick Quinlivan

    its looking similar to the federal election in certain seats where the lib/nats know the election is over , why bother putting up a reasonable candidate

  7. Gareth Ward must have such a huge personal vote in Kiama if he’s seemingly able to overcome charges of sexual assault against him. I would assume if the Liberals bother to preselect a candidate, this person will run dead and hand their preferences over to Ward.
    I’d have thought reelecting Ward is a risky proposition for the voters of Kiama, because there’s every chance they’d have to go to a byelection within 6-12 months anyway.
    It will be one of the more interesting seats on election night, as will be 3 or 4 seats independents might have a chance of taking off the Coalition, like Pittwater and Wakehurst.
    Chris Minns launching his campaign in Hurstville today in the seat of Oatley, which tells you Labor have their sights on that one.

  8. Elizabeth Farrelly using Pride walk to promote herself.

    Hopefully she will get the same number of votes as her small entourage

  9. Elizabeth Farrelly will get the votes of the inner city trendies who used to salivate over her weekly column in the Sydney Morning Herald – in other words, not too many people. She won’t get anywhere near a quota for the Upper House.

  10. What is Elizabeth Farrelly up to now?
    Last i heard she was a Labor candidate for Strathfield Council and was sacked by the SMH for not declaring a conflict of interest

  11. Oh – just found the site.
    For thirty years I’ve been a fiercely independent thought leader throughout the state, working as a columnist, author, designer, academic and councillor, balancing that with being a mother, keen cyclist and active member of my local communities.

  12. I know many people who live in Kiama and I’d be stunned if Ward doesn’t win.

    Despite everything (and they are a serious everythings), Ward is known as an extremely active and engaged local member.

  13. fairfield seatts may be tough with carbone how ever he seems a liberal he does not have much to critercize the nsw government over just labor

  14. I’m getting nervous about Labot’s campaign. The slogan doesn’t really seem to hit the mark. Has the Government been that bad and is the Labor alternative perceived as that fresh? Also, the issues of the day are the cost of living, rents and housing more generally. Jobs and skills are down the list at the moment. NSW Labor haven’t run a good State campaign since 2007 and an excellent one since 1999.

  15. @Historyintime

    The preferred premier question in this case looks like forced response for selecting one or the other – not comparable to Newspoll versions, which are not. It’s been observed that in Newspoll there is a natural lean of 10-15 points or more to the incumbent so the margins of ~8 for Perrottet’s lead were modest for a sitting premier (and about what would be expected given the published 2PP).

    It’s possible that Morgan’s forced response version has the effect of reducing or eliminating the natural lean to the incumbent – such that 54-46 for Minns over Perrottet ends up being very close to the published 2PP.

  16. Just watched some of Chris Minns launching the Labor campaign, with the help of Albanese. Solid stuff, reminiscent of McGowan or Malinauskas.

  17. I just find it hard to believe Mr Ward could be elected.. I cannot anticipate the court case but if convicted he will do jail time. He still cannot attend parliament.. as he is suspended. If it is true that he controls the Kiama branches from outside then the liberals need to clean up their organisation. Also I find it hard to believe that the adjoining seat of South Coast is not impacted adversely for the liberals

  18. Historyintime says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 11:36 am
    I’m getting nervous about Labot’s campaign. The slogan doesn’t really seem to hit the mark. Has the Government been that bad and is the Labor alternative perceived as that fresh? Also, the issues of the day are the cost of living, rents and housing more generally. Jobs and skills are down the list at the moment. NSW Labor haven’t run a good State campaign since 2007 and an excellent one since 1999.
    You make some good points, Histrionics. (Sorry about the play on words)
    Slogans are always corny or downright stupid.
    There are only so many times you can say “Its Time” for a change.
    ‘A Fresh Start for NSW ‘ is worth a 7 out of 10 from me.
    Has the government been that bad? With the major scandal of a Liberal Premier having to resign even before she was called to answer questions before ICAC, do I call that ‘BAD’, you bet I do and I’m sure most, if not all voters in NSW think the same. Think SHAME SHAME DOUBLE SHAME.
    Is Labor fresh? Its not a question is Labor fresh but how stale and rotten is Perrottet and his government? It beggars belief that anyone will vote for them.
    Yes, the issues include high cost of living, rents and housing and this shit was happening under this incompetent and corrupt Berejiklian/Perrottet government. Labor needs to highlight this fact.
    I do agree that jobs and skills are down the list, especially for me, but they do seem to resonate with the average worker.

  19. Post sept 2022…. the coalition govt ‘s position has worsened by 7% odd.
    This is for obvious reasons. Remember more to come from. Icac which will.not help the liberals. The Barilaro affair.. re his overseas posting…Glady’s report… the matter of the building Commissioners resignation letter.. are all to be on icacs agenda. There are so many seats that are competitive I can’t see how the coalition can win in minority or majority
    There is also an argument that people have already decided.

  20. Dom promising to build 40 hospitals in 4 years – will people buy this stuff?
    Labor’s promises to me seem more modest and more restrained, whereas Perrottett is throwing the kitchen sink at this election.
    Minns is no Bob Carr, certainly the best Premier in my lifetime, but he has some potential to grow into that job if he won in 3 weeks.

  21. the labor head office is probaly the bigist weaknis nanva will aparently enter parliament but i have no idea who he is whichis fine as a party oficial but they still have not updated there wibsite still no david Saliba in fairfield or a new list of admin comitty members for example hayes is still on there he left parliament in may last year

  22. re Kiama.
    I think I’ve mentioned before that daughter-in-law’s parents live in Kiama electorate and think Ward is a wonderful member. Conversations frequently begin with “Gareth said….” to much approval of whatever it was. Would usually be Lib. voters, but pretty sure I know where their votes will go.

  23. The polls seem pretty consistent at ALP 52-53% 2PP, with under 3 weeks left now. Minns to me is playing like he is leading, and just wants to run down the clock. No risks, nothing controversial, no aggressive attacks on the government, if Perrottet comes out with an attractive policy Minns mainly just matches it.

    For what it’s worth, the TAB individual seat markets show incumbents losing just 4 seats, namely East Hills, Penrith, Parramatta and Riverstone all moving from Lib to ALP. Markets were only available for 30 seats originally, and as of now it’s down to just 22, with East Hills and Parramatta being amongst those which disappeared. If that was indeed the election result, the new parliament would be 42 ALP, 41 LNP, 5 left others (3 Greens, Piper, Greenwich), and 5 right others (3 ex-SFF, Ward, McGirr). That would make life interesting at Macquarie St!

  24. MQ
    He still cannot attend parliament.. as he is suspended.
    Wouldn’t the suspension end with the dissolution?
    In which case the first order of business will be to suspend him. Interesting if there is only 1 seat in it.

  25. I don’t think Greenwich is a given for Labor – his mentor and predecessor propped up a minority LNP government for 3 years

  26. It is a legal matter maybe but I.would guess the suspension Held till lifted…I admit I could be wrong but it is probably academic.. what has changed since he was suspended ? nothing … imagine..” come back Gareth .. we need you….”
    Re Greenwich if he supports the coalition he will lose his seat and he knows that

  27. I think the NSW parliament can expel but the Federal can’t.
    The last time in NSW was a guy called Armstrong in the early 60s from the LC.
    The only one in Federal Parliament was Hugh Mahon in 1920 – the resultant by-election was the last one a government won from the opposition.
    I think it would not be appropriate to expel before he is convicted – if convicted he would be ineligible to sit

  28. will wait and see but i dont think barilarow scandle is realy a factor anym more minns is not realy capatalizing on it and the building comitioner was months a go and he was reappointed any wayhow ever the cash lis gaming card was a non event perottit finaly anowsed his policy then he dropped the ishue realizing after a few weeks of hype from the smh that there was no votes in it

  29. Wonder what will happin in upper house Fred nile is running second on his wifes ticket but she is unregisted lile shellton is also running for family first but they did not register in time maybi latham could pick up the one nation vote but with asfour gone from upper house it makes no sence whiy mihayliouk is running for one nation

  30. plus buckingham the old greens mp is running for legalise canibas a s trange party pushing obveously for drug rreform but buckingham made his name as an environmental campaigner not sure if he evenb was active on drug law reform the party did well in qld and vick and wwa so vcould threatin the greens vote now shoebridge there nsw leader moved to federal but one wa mp is anti vacksination

  31. Mick Quinlivan, please do tell what ‘Ayres has done’ to preclude him from running?

    Clearly you know more than former ICAC investigator Bruce McLintock SC who undertook an independent inquiry and cleared him unequivocally.

    Many Poll Bludgers have said that they know who will win on March 25th.
    Many have said they think they know.
    Many have said they just don’t know.

    Could we have a poll on Poll Bludger to see who at this stage they think will win on the 25th.
    By at this stage, I mean with everything we know about life and politics as at the 5th of March.
    This could change as the days or weeks go by.
    Just a simple Labor to win OR Liberals to win.
    No ifs. buts, or maybes.
    If the media commentators can do it, we can too.
    No shame in changing our mind as the campaign progresses.

    I say Labor to win.

  33. William, for the sake of accuracy, it’s Peter Poulos, not Paul.

    Don’t worry, no one else knows who he is either.

  34. Ayres quite simply interfered in the selection to help mate John Barilaro.. this selection was a Rort from start to finish.. Amy Brown who interfered with the selection in multiple ways. At least was honest when she said she kept checking checking with Ayres. Was this what he wanted? A white wash inquiry does not change this.. watch the videos or read the transcript.. it is misconduct for a minister to interfere on behalf of his mate. This matter will also go to Icac

  35. There are a lot of ifs buts and maybes. The liberals and to a lesser extent the Nats have potential troubles in about 20 seats which I consider competive. The result range from a Liberal minority govt through to a Labor majority of varying sizes.the least likely if the polls are correct is a liberal government. The 2pp shows Labor on 52 to 54% 2pp and Labor likely to outpoll the liberals on primary votes.. this should equal a majority Labor govt unless the polls are wrong or there are some very weird aberrations in terms of seats. There will probably be more independents in the parliament as well

  36. @98.6

    It will be an extraordinary election. The Liberals will lose a great number of seats in all directions. The Nationals will pick up the SFF seats but otherwise retain their current seats. The Greens will snag a couple (although early in the night it will look like a bumper crop) Minns will form government with a small but working majority. The LNP however will be decimated. 54/46 on 2pp.

    Teals, Greens and Labor voters will swap optional preferences. The numpties on the right will self sabotage.

    Antony Green to call it at 8.07pm

    In 2027 Minns will pull off a Dan Slide after 4 years of boring but competent government.

    Glays’ secret lover will be in jail.

  37. What unmitigated rubbish, perhaps you should take the time to read the report. Ayres did nothing more than send Barilaro a copy of the ad when he asked about it. To suggest they were ‘mates’ just because they were on the same side is laughable.

    Barilaro had no mates in the Liberal Party, they all hated his guts for the way he behaved, threatening to blow up the Coalition every five minutes.

    Anyone who believes a Labor/Green dominated committee who just happened to drop their draft report a few weeks out from an election is delusional.

    The person responsible for running such a substandard process was Amy Brown and Coutts-Trotter quite rightly sacked her for her incompetence.

    98.6, to answer your question, Labor will win, the only question is whether they get to a majority, which I don’t think they will. The pendulum makes it too difficult and Carbone makes it even harder.

  38. Labor will win a minority government ,supported by the Greens and some Independents, who will demand tougher pokies control and a stronger ICAC.
    The problem will be the Legislative Council where deals will have to be done with either One Nation or Shooters to get legislation passed.

  39. In 1991 NSW State election, Newspoll published 57 % (or was it 58%) 2PP to Griener government just before election. It was a hung parliament with 4 independents giving support to LNP government formation. Griener government was most reformist government after Whitlam government after 1 term.
    Bob Carr was the opposition leader.
    DoPe is no Griener and Minns is no Carr.
    It is sad reflection how bad things have become in 32 years.

  40. What I said was spot on.. about the Barilaro job selection.. don’t worry about the reports of Mclintlock or the actual cmtee report.. look at the transcript or hearings. Amy Brown interfered all through.. look at the evidence of the public service commissioner who was a independent member of the panel…Ayres role in nobbling one of the candidates. Referees reports . They were supposed to be current supervisions one was Barry Ofarrell who left parliament in 2014 one was a public servant who reported to Barilaro when he was minister. Another was a ex federal politician. The selection started made a choice, then stopped ,as Barilaro prior to leaving parliament made it a ministerial appointment Ayres then moved in cabinet to change it back to public service selection.. the delay allowed Barilaro to apply. Amy’s own evidence said Ayres was not at arms length. She said she wanted to make sure that she was on the same page as Ayres. I doubt some of Amy’s evidence but not that of her collusion with Ayres. They picked her as the fall girl but she did not do this alone. I worked 30 plus years in the federal public service applying for jobs pre 2000 at the $50000 or less level and I assure you this selection would have been thrown out. This selection was a rort a soft Landing for Barilaro which fell apart. Ayres was involved….

  41. i think ayres most likely incouriged barilarow to apply to send him to the trade role as a way of getting rod of him he would be in us not causing any problims he would get a job how ever the problim was that a publick servent got the job first because the government wanted it to look like a was a fair thing if jenney west was rejected he would have got a way withh barilarow will Carbone win is he that popular labor is running a vietnamese candadate in cabramatter now

  42. If there is a very close hung parliament, I am wondering if the various indies will put Perrottet in to get pokies issue sorted and then after 6 months let them fall on the floor of the house.

  43. What is it about Kiama. Ward’s Labor predecessor Matt Brown was also touted as a good local member. Memorably disgraced himself at a party in Macquarie St and was punted with an above par swing of almost 20% in the 2011 landslide.

    Brown was a goose but retained major party endorsement. Ward is facing serious criminal charges – where the courts will have the final say – and no major party support or funding. Whatever local campaign capacity he might have, is it seriously being argued that the “good local member” will be enough to stop people thinking twice when the pencil hovers above the ballot paper?

    He’ll get preferences from no-one. If the Libs do run, the rusted on right wing vote will split and a lot will exhaust. If they don’t, well, ask Ray Hadley what happens next. Kiama leans Labor federally (Gilmore/Whitlam) which points to a Labor win on solid primary vote and stronger Greens preferences.

  44. 98.6says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:00 pm
    Many Poll Bludgers have said that they know who will win on March 25th.
    Many have said they think they know.
    Many have said they just don’t know.

    Could we have a poll on Poll Bludger to see who at this stage they think will win on the 25th.
    By at this stage, I mean with everything we know about life and politics as at the 6th of March.
    This could change as the days or weeks go by.
    Just a simple post, Labor will win, OR, Liberals will win.
    No ifs. buts, or maybes, whys or wherefores.
    If the media commentators can do it, think Credlin, Bolt, Hilderbrand, Hadley etc we can too.
    No shame in changing our mind as the campaign progresses.

    I say Labor will win.
    Mick Quinlivan says Labor
    MABWM says Labor
    DESIE says Labor
    Malcolm says Labor.

  45. Perrottet saying what he thinks voters across the state want to hear:

    NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet says Kiama MP Gareth Ward should remain suspended from parliament as long as the former Liberal minister is before the courts on sexual assault charges.

    Perrottet said his position that Ward should not step foot in parliament while fighting criminal offences had not changed, after the incumbent MP confirmed he would run as an independent to retain the south coast seat at the March 25 election.

  46. 98.6
    At this point in time previously, Mick quinlivan says ALP will in at the previous nsw elections:
    2019, 2015, 2011, 2007, 2003, 1999, 1995, 1991, 1988, 1984, 1981, 1978, 1976, 1973, 1971, 1968, 1965….

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