New South Wales election minus seven weeks

Fresh news on independent candidates for the March 25 New South Wales state election, plus a rather less fresh poll result.

Roy Morgan had a rather dated New South Wales state poll this week that was conducted way back in December, showing Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred. However, both Labor and the Coalition were at a low ebb of 33.5% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 12% and One Nation 4.5%, leaving a further 16.5% scattered among independents and other minor parties. The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 1446.

In other news, two notable independents have confirmed themselves as starters, though one seemingly has more promising prospects than the other:

• Northern Beaches mayor Michael Regan made his long-anticipated announcement that he will run in Wakehurst, which is being vacated by Health Minister Brad Hazzard. Regan has served locally as mayor since 2008, first for the old Warringah Council and then in Northern Beaches when it was created from a merger of Warringah, Pittwater and Manly in 2016. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph wrote in November that Regan would be “favourite at unbackable odds” if he ran. The Liberal candidate is Toby Williams, RSL club director and electorate officer to Hazzard.

• Former Liberal Gareth Ward has announced he will seek re-election as an independent in his southern Illawarra seat of Kiama. Ward resigned from the ministry and the Liberal Party in May 2021 after identifying himself as the MP subject to an inquiry by the child abuse and sex crimes squad, and was suspended from parliament when charges were laid in March last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

157 comments on “New South Wales election minus seven weeks”

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  1. Peter Poulos expelled from the Liberal Party for 6 months, in other words he can’t stay in the Upper House. I will assume someone inside the Liberals leaked against Poulos

  2. A bit on Kiama: Supposedly Gareth Ward is leading on the primary vote in internal polling against the Labor candidate and an as yet unknown Liberal candidate. Ward would need Liberal preferences to retain the seat.

  3. i notised poulos key factional backeer matt kean came out at tried to act like he did not know poulos did this only problim is that that five years a go poulos was matt keans senyor advisor in his ministearial office now that labor has a candadate in Cabramatter does any body know when they will anowse a candadate in Fairfield desbite perottit governments government falling apart head office has not been very good with candadate sele tion did Terry Campese have to resign over the party or was labour concerned moore would come out so he had to go

  4. Melanie Gibbons or Shayne Malard will replace Poulos on the Liberal Upper House ticket – my guess would be Melanie Gibbons, soon to be ex MP for Holsworthy. Perrottett wants more women on the Liberal side and she’s highly thought of by him.
    And Aaron Newton, thank you mate for your posts and updates in here!

  5. yes but only by him no body else it seems didnt kean back liverpool mayors wife Tena Ayad against her plus poulos was close to matt kean

  6. it seems kean is backing nsw womans cowncil president jackqui munrow Gibbens no longer has modderit faction backing her partner kent johns ran against keans closist allie the now dumped poulos in his 2021 preselection that gave him the seat

  7. Evan thanks for that kiama update- I just asked outside left to get on here soon to give us the low down on it all

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