New South Wales election minus seven weeks

Fresh news on independent candidates for the March 25 New South Wales state election, plus a rather less fresh poll result.

Roy Morgan had a rather dated New South Wales state poll this week that was conducted way back in December, showing Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred. However, both Labor and the Coalition were at a low ebb of 33.5% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 12% and One Nation 4.5%, leaving a further 16.5% scattered among independents and other minor parties. The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 1446.

In other news, two notable independents have confirmed themselves as starters, though one seemingly has more promising prospects than the other:

• Northern Beaches mayor Michael Regan made his long-anticipated announcement that he will run in Wakehurst, which is being vacated by Health Minister Brad Hazzard. Regan has served locally as mayor since 2008, first for the old Warringah Council and then in Northern Beaches when it was created from a merger of Warringah, Pittwater and Manly in 2016. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph wrote in November that Regan would be “favourite at unbackable odds” if he ran. The Liberal candidate is Toby Williams, RSL club director and electorate officer to Hazzard.

• Former Liberal Gareth Ward has announced he will seek re-election as an independent in his southern Illawarra seat of Kiama. Ward resigned from the ministry and the Liberal Party in May 2021 after identifying himself as the MP subject to an inquiry by the child abuse and sex crimes squad, and was suspended from parliament when charges were laid in March last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

157 comments on “New South Wales election minus seven weeks”

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  1. at least mihayliouk wontbe drawing votes away from labor since joining one nation she has not had much to say i understand she was indorced back in 2010 buy head office and she did not seem to like one nation much before joining the new candadate gihad dib is in a very junier ministry he has hardly been in the media since dropped from education when will liberal and nationals select there upperhhouse ticket

  2. one thing i find suprising about this election is the fct the teligraph and 2 g b are actualy give minns and labor a better run the herald and in particular there liberal propergander writtiter protending to be qa political edator alix smith has gone full attack over this pockies culture war where as fordum and okieth give minns a reasonable run the heralds campaign woulve been damaged buy gean nasof the properpty developer acused of ceruption buy ray williams escaping to lebanon and refusing to cowoperate with the parliament inquiry

  3. Aaron Newton: it is interesting that Minns gets a better run in the Daily Telegraph than he does in the Sydney Morning Herald, although at the end of the day I expect the Murdoch papers in Sydney will still endorse Perrottett.
    Day after day, the SMH has editorials or opinion pieces trying to pressure Minns into offering bipartisanship with Perrottett over cashless gaming in pubs and clubs, as this is supposedly the defining issue of the state election.
    Still no endorsed Labor candidates in Fairfield, Cabramatta, Epping, Wahroonga, Cronulla and some country seats, whereas the Liberals haven’t got candidates in a string of safe Labor seats in Sydney and in the Hunter region and down in the Illawarra.

  4. Evan and Aaron :- on both parties still not having fielded candidates for March 25th.
    Didn’t either the Libs, or Labor, learn from the NSW Coalition party’s debacle where leaving candidate selection to the last few weeks before the federal poll contributed to their election defeat.

    In QLD, CURRENT, LNP opposition leader David Crisafulli has taken note of what happened in the NSW pre-selections under Morrison and his mate Alex Hawke, and recently said he will have pre-selected candidates in every seat in QLD by this Easter, ie 18 months before the state election due on 26th Oct 2024.
    I do emphasize CURRENT leader because at this moment in time he hasn’t a chance in hell of ever becoming premier but I will applaud him for pre-selecting candidates well in advance.
    Perhaps 18 months is a stretch, 12 months makes more sense, but the idea is to have a candidate start their campaign to make themselves known in their chosen electorate.
    What chance do those selected in the next week or two in NSW, unless they already have a high profile, have in getting to show voters who they are and what they stand for.
    We know from the Teal experience that some of them had been campaigning for at least a year, and look at the results.
    Of course, there are two sides to this early pre-selection, one of them is mentioned above and the other is both good and bad.
    The bad could be that the candidate turns out to be an axe murderer, surely the voters would find this out within that 12 month period.
    The good part is that another candidate can be found to take their place.

  5. Libs do have a candidate in Kiama Mick. By contrast, ALP still struggling in Cabramatta, Fairfield and Liverpool. Are they just going to leave these ones alone?

  6. labo has had a candadate in liverpool for a while a local cowncilor charisma caleyanda replaceing paul lynch i knowmoderit wants perottit to winn but it is unlikely to happin yes fairfield and cabramatta has not been managed well but a candadate will be inp place buy the end of this month and looks like a high profile indpependent will not run

  7. Hi bludgers!

    So far the NSW campaign has been pretty lacklustre and uninspiring.

    Polls suggest an easy Labor victory but there is much more going on under the surface.

    For starters Sussex street isn’t as enthused about the election as I’d expect them to normally be. The ALP need over almost 15 seats to form a government. They are still to reclaim many formerly heartland outer suburban seats since the 2011 disaster, many of these seats even today sit on 5-10% margins and I doubt they will have a uniform swing.

    Chris Minns has got on with the job since he was installed. He holds his seat by 68 votes and may very well find himself up against a yet to be announced popular identity with the Libs choosing not to run a candidate. In the NSW brave new optional pref system it means anything could potentially happen.

    The sitting premier isn’t considered overly offensive and at the very least will result in the Libs saving a enough furniture to go into opposition.

    Neither Minns or perrotet have been able to create any real policy or ideological points of different to campaign on and excite the electorate. There isn’t really any passion or conviction in either of their pressers and they seem to have settled into a cordial and rather plain style of debate towards each other.

    After the Foley and Daly dramas most assumed that Prue Car would at last take her rightful place as leader- she’s been touted as a future Labor premier for a decade. Her immense popularity and resonate win the wider electorate is really quite phenomenal. Unfortunately she has consistently stated even before her medical leave of absence that she is happy with her deputy role. When her time comes she will be more popular than Gladys at her peak.

    With a cross bench of 12, there is the very really possibility of a hung parliament followed by a period of negotiating. If the cross bench holds its current general composition it would be harder for Labor to make a minority government deal.

    In saying that I still think Labor will form a government of some sort all things being equal.

    There are promising signs in Penrith for labor, even in 2019 the got it to under 1000 votes. Ayres is on the nose and the labor candidate, Karen MCKeown is a respected former mayor and sitting councillor. Kiama is also a surprise packet due to the cluster fuck of its current sitting member- even the South coast is looking reasonably competitive for Labor with a retiring MP and a strong candidate.

    It goes without saying that seats like Drummoyne, Ryde and Parramatta wi need to finally come home to Labor. Goulburn and Tweed will also need to be gains for them and then see how it all pans out.

  8. i think prue care would be labors best leader she is the parties bestcampaigner and would most likely have the numbers with the block of her twu mps both leaders seem not overly interested in the campaign

  9. I agree with you Aaron,

    both leaders lack any real hunger or desire to become (or continue) Premier.

    I think Chris just needs to find some spark and come across as someone who really wants to get the job.

    It will be interesting to see how the new ‘teals’ go in the Liberal seats. The ultra moderate treasurer has done a very good job ( as much as I hate to admit it) at keeping the loony far right factions at bay and essentially toothless. Teals will have a limited scope of traction running against these very moderate libs.

  10. I notice that the govt is touting more metro’s for Western Sydney. I think the government will find that the electorate in Western Sydney is more interested in $60 toll caps than in Metro’s where the most majority of people will be forced to stand for almost all their journey.
    With net govt debt levels the way they are, the electorate will think that the govt is spending money like drunken sailors and this toll cap announcement will go down well in the electorate of Penrith and Holsworthy.
    Hasn’t the boffins in NSW transport worked out that if you want to get people on to public transport you need to offer a comfortable alternative than sitting in your car.

  11. Leftiebrawler, am in South Coast and have said and will continue to say that Labor isn’t active down here – despite the retiring Member factor. They even had Minns down over the weekend but there was no media or any announcements!!? It’s a pretty strange and lacklustre effort compared with Kiama or Bega.

  12. Hi Randall, I grew up in jervis bay and my mum has always been and still is very active with South coast Labor. I can remember doing letter box drops and manning a booth for Wayne Smith in 2003 which was the only labor loss that year!.

    It’s been lean times at a state level since then for the south coast. Demographic change around the new central shoalhaven estates in places like vincentia and at St. George’s basin etc have demonstrated a consistent rise for Labor in many booths. Now that Hancock is gone and Labor an excellent candidate I think they are the strongest they’ve been to in over 20 years to snare the seat. Recent eclections at all levels of government in the shoalhaven lga have been kind to them. Think Fiona holding out against Hollywood Constance, the continued election of a Mayor from the Greens party and what is now a sizeable voting block of labor councillors in the wards.

    Im in the Penrith area and we are quite bullish on our chances here thus the big rally last week. Due to seats like Goulburn, Kiama etc being must wins im sure you will see more high profile Minns visits to that general area including the south coast.

    In regards to ALL grass roots participation in Gilmore/South Coast I can assure you the party is in a very healthy state with lots of financial members and election time volunteers. To this day my mum is an active meme we down there and has been apart of a core group of rank and file down there that have been with Fiona since day dot.

    When Wayne Smith lost the seat in 2003 as a complete shock in the otherwise Bob carr landslide it allowed Hancock to make the seat her own. At that time retirees were still the main demographic there and they loved Gash federally and Shelly Hancock was able to ride this wave. Understandably sussex street no longer gave any priority of funding or resources to campaigns here .

    That continued for a long time. In 2007 Neil Reilly showed green shoots for labor by wiping out Gash’s margin to 3% from 15 or so. Fiona and her volunteers deserve all the credit for getting Labor back in the game through sheer hard word and door knocking. Federally Gilmore has gone from very safe Lib to margin Labor hold twice in a row. It’s for these reasons as well as the retirement of the siting member and the child sex charges currently before a court in the neighbouring seat that I give Labor a 50/50 chance in south coast.

    Just give it a couple of weeks or so and once sussex street gets some favourable internal numbers you’ll seek the big Minns bus around a lot more.

  13. LB, great summation of the state of play here in South Coast.Lots of phone banking , door knocking, social media and stalls at markets and shops going on here. The ghost who walks [Hancock] is done, and her replacement is very weak. We are a big chance!

  14. outside left I still say you should have put your hand up to run for South Coast! your natural ability for off the cuff, spontaneous and witty take downs of opponents were made for the modern sound bite era!

    The hard work all of you guys put in down there over the past decade has reached dizzing heights I never thought would be possible for Labor down there in my life time. Hopefully Minns and his cabinet can formulate a few headline grabbing and popular big ticket promises for what ever upgrade or project is desperately needed there.

  15. hopefuly labor will campaign harder in south cost also seem quiet in riverstone and east hills but as living in penrith the campaign is very activethe cowncilorr karin mckeown is doing a ggood job campaigning with lots of volintiers wonder when fairfield will get a candadate this is different to the federal seat arround the aria lindsay where labor did not campaign much h

  16. Outside Leftie Brawler Arron Rudd and Randall
    Interesting updates on the big day from you all but I notice bloggers have avoided this thread for a couple of weeks now.
    However, when the next poll is released, good or bad for Labor, I’m sure things will pick up.
    Anything from the status quo to a point up in the polls will spur everyone back to this thread.
    With less than six weeks to go, what could possibly go wrong?

  17. There is a lot of noise about Fairfield and Cabramatta. There are rumors that Carbone is going to run if Labor doesn’t preselect a candidate that meets his approval. The reason for the Labor issues there is the quality of the branches themselves and the clans that run Fairfield/Cabramatta politics which is more about opportunism than any philosophy. Remember Dai Le was from one of these clans and had support from certain ALP members. Prospect was a basket case until Hugh McDermott came in and pretty much smashed power of the Koshaba clan who I might add allowed the seat to go to the Liberals in 2011.

    I suspect Sussex St is waiting till after the poll to go through the branches and clean them out. And if I was Chris Minns and I won the poll I would be looking at launching an inquiry into Fairfield Council ASAP. There is a little too much cronyism in that part of the world (which I grew up in) for far too long.

  18. This is really bad optics for the Premier.

    What he is saying here I can’t fund my Metro’s and tollways without privatising.

    All this is saying to the electorate is: “We are drunk on spending YOUR Money for our pet projects” While the MSM will spin it the other way of course because as we know the MSM has de-platformed Minns and NSW Labor.

  19. well koshaba clan is out of fairfield cowncil with nenos loosing his seat but the koshabas helped chris Bowen enter politics aparently bowen is backing David Salibafor fairfield i think labor will also look at liverpool cowncil the liberal mayor Ned manaun appointed former liberal mp John Ajaka as ggeneral manager

  20. the guy that replaced koshaba foor the liberals Andrew rohan is now on fairfield cowncil as part of carbone las ticket dought Carbone will win himself he is not veitnamese

  21. Andrew Rohan is another one of those from the Fairfield area suspended like Dai Le for running against the endorsed Liberal candidate in the 2016 LGA elections.

    If you think Labor is a mess in the Fairfield/Cabramatta area think again. The Liberals are worse. I remember as a kid in the 80’s the Fairfield Advance was full of articles chronicling the various factional wars in the local Liberal branches.

  22. plus the liberals in liverppol controled by Ned maunaun and his wife tena Ayad got preselected in holesworvy the liberal factions are evin worse in the hills with the battle between the allex hawke faction and the hard rightthe hard right wanted former yung liberal president Nowel mccoy to replace him but in stead got hills cowncil deputy mayor mark hodges labor and greens are holding a inquiry in to hills cowncil the liberals made a mistaketargiting Cantebry banks town one of the liberals recently exbelled is a local cowncilor from bankstown and the liberal cowncilors in the aria got court up with mcgwire

  23. Fairfield has no Labor or Liberal candidates as of now, so Greg Rudd is correct, it’s a mess in South West Sydney in a political sense. There is a Liberal candidate preselected in Cabramatta, no Labor candidate as of yet.
    Overall lads(I presume we’re all blokes in here, if I got that wrong, apologies), it’s time for some serious opinion polls on the state of the race, are we going to get any?

  24. When you look at the mess that is Fairfield/Cabramatta politics you can easily see why KK was parachuted in by Sussex St as the clean skin. The fact that all the clans which crossed party lines all joined forces to fight KK shows you how rotten the place is. There is most definitely no Janice Crosio in the wings.

  25. One day there could be a book written on the South Coast liberal party.. roughly Gilmore Federal electorate. The faction fighting lost them the Federal seat. Even though the same people were involved the liberals survived in the state seats of Kiama and South Coast with healthy majorities. Now Shelley Hancock standing down leaves the seat more open. And of course Kiama is a scandal seat

  26. Garith ward seems to be a popular member dont know whiy as im not from the aria at least my seat of penrith looks like labor could win with karin mckeown to get rid of stuart ayres

  27. I cannot believe Mr Ward will win The liberal candidate has just entered the contest.. this suggests they cannot win either. This seat is not a certain liberal seat .. I think the Alp has to be in the box seat. The 2019 margin either in terms of primary votes 3% or 2pp 12% ? Is meaningless

  28. ah Mick – like a broken clock, telling the correct time twice a day.
    Surely with your previous history with Kiama predictions (even you’d admit not your finest hour) you’d just sit this one out??

  29. This clock will indeed strike correctly on election day. The climates of 2015 and 2019 were very different to 2023. The dynamics of Kiama are not that it is safe liberal. But rather that it is marginal.. and can be won by Labor or the liberals in the right circumstances. 2023 has a 6 to 8% swing to Labor 2pp, with Labor outpolling the liberals on primary votes. BUT as the old adds say.. there is more..
    Mr Ward is not the liberal candidate in good standing as was the case in 2019. He is suspended from parliament…. no longer the liberal candidate and facing criminal charges

  30. can any one from kiama inform us on the feeling there labour does not seem to be campaigning hard in kiama or east hillsthis must mean Garith ward is safe focusing more on lepington penrith paramatter and maybi south coast

  31. poor matt kean had a shocking election now his onlymodderit with a some what winable spot on the upper house ticket peter poulos is now provin to be a sexist sharing photows of a former factional allie he used to be in hard right faction before defecting to moderits

  32. Mick Quinlivan: if Labor can’t win a seat like East Hills, no way Chris Minns will get anywhere near majority government, not even minority government for that matter.
    Both parties are dragging their feet picking candidates for a big number of seats, these preselections will obviously be finalised at the last minute. The Liberals presumably won’t put any resources into Labor seats they think they can’t win, and the same goes for Labor running dead in safe Liberal and National Party seats(like Wahroonga, my seat, on North Shore of Sydney).

  33. has minns visested or campaigned much inlepington with nathan higarty and east hills maybi he does not like the soft left faction and perottit is not campaigning much in marjinal seats linked with hawke such as winston hills wherehawkes faction member mark tayler is running what spot does peter poulos have on liberal party ticket

  34. the premier thinks its labors fault after they tried to damage khal asfour labor reacted to set upone in to ray willaims spech against hils shier cowncil aparently this evidence buy the liberal oficial yesterday is a labor smear desbite ray williams a close allie of hawke an liberal mp first raising this and saying it should be investegated outside the partythere could also ben one in to liberal management of city of liverpool cowncil as well

  35. In my opinion Labor will win East Hills.. Parramatta.. Penrith.. retain Bega.. win 2 of 3 in Drummoyne Kiama and Monaro. Not lose anything , be competitive in Goulburn Tweed upper Hunter Winston Hills South Coast Riverstone Camden. The coalition will not take any seats off Labor or independents. …… including the sff independents. The liberals mainly are in danger in up to 20 seats.. to all including independents and teals.

  36. how is labor looking in south cost and kiamais labor competative looking good in penrith lepington might be difficult as will east hills

  37. You can rule out Monaro now as a Labor possible pickup, the Murdoch media smear job on Terry Campese worked, the new Labor candidate will have almost no time now to get himself or herself known to the electorate. Nats will retain that seat.

  38. then nsw general secretary of labor Bob Nanvawould have to be the worst ever leader of nsw labor unfortunatly minns gave him an upper house seat apart from his federal failings withpreselections head office still has no candadates in fairfield and cabramatter dont ebven know when they will anowse fairfield over saw the khal asfour distraction when minns had to step in ride still no candadate against perottit i dont think nanva will go down as one of the best general secretaries this is imbarasing as minns has won a well desaplind strong campaign so far to have such incompetent hq

  39. laborwill most likely atempt to persuade popular former monarow mp or bryse willson to have a third triy at the seat Willson did okay in the bi election damian tudehope the finance minister and perottits closist allie is under fire for having shares in trans urban which has tole contracts

  40. NSW state Finance Minister Damien Tudehope has resigned, (Ch 9 said he was sacked) which is probably the case because he had shares in Transurban, the tolling company.
    Damo said he wasn’t aware he had shares in Transurban.
    But he would sat that, wouldn’t he?

  41. My wife and I both had Super accounts through State Super, until we retired.
    technically, we still do as we receive our retirement pension through this fund. As a managed Trust Fund we relied upon the fund managers to invest our fortnightly contributions, wisely.
    In a self-managed fund, the name says it all.
    It is very ingenious for former minister, Tudehope, to suggest that he had no idea where his investments were being placed, whether he made those investments directly or through an investment advisor or company.
    If, he was so incurious to ask in which business entities his money was invested or what was the source of his annual dividends – then he was surely totally incapable of being a State Minister with responsibilities at his ministerial level for overseeing the budget of his ministry.

  42. Evan @ #142 Friday, February 17th, 2023 – 1:14 pm

    You can rule out Monaro now as a Labor possible pickup, the Murdoch media smear job on Terry Campese worked, the new Labor candidate will have almost no time now to get himself or herself known to the electorate. Nats will retain that seat.

    I don’t think these Newscorp and MSM moral campaigns are going to be very effective at the moment because of their gushing over George Pell. (They have poisoned the well there) Moral campaigns these days only connect to “Sydney Anglicans” Pentecostals, Cultural Protestants and DLP types. Who were always going to be voting conservative any way.

    I suspect most Catholics bar the DLP types are sort of glad that he is no longer with us. The challenge for Catholic Church is to read the room so to speak and go from there. People are not pissed that it happened, people are pissed at the institutional cover up. When after all these things were sins of the 6th and 9th commandments. At the end of the middle ages abuse was furtile ground for Protestantism. Today abuse in the faiths is furtile ground for secular humanism.

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