Roy Morgan had a rather dated New South Wales state poll this week that was conducted way back in December, showing Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred. However, both Labor and the Coalition were at a low ebb of 33.5% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 12% and One Nation 4.5%, leaving a further 16.5% scattered among independents and other minor parties. The poll was conducted by phone and online from a sample of 1446.
In other news, two notable independents have confirmed themselves as starters, though one seemingly has more promising prospects than the other:
• Northern Beaches mayor Michael Regan made his long-anticipated announcement that he will run in Wakehurst, which is being vacated by Health Minister Brad Hazzard. Regan has served locally as mayor since 2008, first for the old Warringah Council and then in Northern Beaches when it was created from a merger of Warringah, Pittwater and Manly in 2016. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph wrote in November that Regan would be “favourite at unbackable odds” if he ran. The Liberal candidate is Toby Williams, RSL club director and electorate officer to Hazzard.
• Former Liberal Gareth Ward has announced he will seek re-election as an independent in his southern Illawarra seat of Kiama. Ward resigned from the ministry and the Liberal Party in May 2021 after identifying himself as the MP subject to an inquiry by the child abuse and sex crimes squad, and was suspended from parliament when charges were laid in March last year.
Evan 4.59 pm
Yes, it shows that Perrottet has become “embattled’; better late than never.
For comparison, read this (Dr Bonham before the March 2017 election):
“Much of the caution about a possible Labor victory concerns the need for a 10.1% uniform swing, which would mean Labor would need a 52.8% 2PP vote to win. However, swings are never uniform and always vary from electorate to electorate, and this is why probability-based analysis is often useful to avoid misleading projections. …
From my reading of the comments of those who know the landscape well (like William Bowe) there is some reason to think the government might get smacked hard in volatile outer suburban target seats, so if anything the target statewide swing could be a bit lower and the 2PP playing field close enough to level. …
Government sources are being reported as expressing hope that they might hold on by “sandbagging” crucial marginals. There are, however, many cases of this strategy being talked about in state elections, and few of it actually working.”
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2016/11/wa-how-bad-is-barnetts-latest-polling.html
Evan on Sunday @ 4.26 says this:-
Perrottett and Kean’s offer today of $250 rebates if a household switches energy providers is a straight out bribe, directed especially at Sydney’s West, so of course it got front page billing in the Murdoch owned Sunday tabloid.
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Straight out bribes are common with the Coalition when they get desperate as seen by this doozy.
It reminds me of the QLD LNP’s bribe for votes where they would give a $300 cash rebate on every car registered in QLD if elected. Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington announced that just two weeks before the state election when they knew that they were going to lose for the third time in a row to Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
It soon hit the fan when it became known that billionaires like Clive Palmer would receive $2,700 cash back for the 9 cars that he personally owns.
It seems nobody gave a shit about the bribe as Palaszczuk was returned with an increased majority in Qlds first four year term.
Despite some speculation that ClubsNSW and the Coalition had done a deal regarding gambling reform, ClubsNSW and the NSW Australian Hotels Association are now objecting to the proposed introduction of the cashless gaming card:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/clubs-and-pubs-oppose-mandated-date-for-all-nsw-pokies-to-be-cashless-20230206-p5cicg.html
So, self imposed deposit limits, which we know does stuff-all for problem gamblers, and 5 years before it happens anyway. No changes to the fundamentally addictive nature of the machines. If you simply legislated that the machines couldn’t make sounds when you win it would have more of an effect.
I can’t tell if this is a cynical ploy to get more votes in an election, or if he’s an idiot. Although, I’m pretty certain that least some of the people supporting us think that the voting public are idiots.
so after just one day perottit has given up on the energy policy so the herald owned buy peter costellow is still triying to sell the so called gambling reform desbite the fact that it will have little impact and tim costelow basickly admits it will do nothing but then says if som how tries to acuase nsw labor of being pupits of clubs nsw when there is no evidence a publican russle fitspatrick is running in bega and former clubs nsw state cowncil member toby williams who was a director of three local clubs is running in wakehurst obveously this campaign is evidence that minns and labors focus on integrity matters is hurting how ever givengladis isstill well liked minns is smart to focus integrity on perottit and barilarow over the trade role and not mention gladis directly this policy is simpy to atempt to show perottit standing up to a vested interest
but even nine are split the herald posibly backt buy costellow are pushing perottits policy 2gb especialy cris okieth backing minns policy and Ben fordim backing Clubs nsws lyne so the barilarow job must be cutting through with labors focus on cost of living and education health mean while perottit is all over the place
but even the s m h campaign lead buyalix smith who isseposed to be the independent political edator hnot a liberal party campaigner is outraged that perottit failed to do a deal with clubs nsw but if clubs nsw are suposed to be this terible vested interest distroying peoples lives then how would making a deal be good if the clubs nsw is so bad plus puts tobie williams in a odd position no wonder former australian hotells asosation deputy direfctor David elliott had to retire plus the independent nsw crime comition bos was effectively indorsing perrottit which makes his position difficult as he has politisized his position
Yeah, I think cashless gaming won’t be the magic trick for Perrottett that the Sydney Morning Herald and the ABC think it will be. Minns will have the Hotels Association and Clubs NSW lined up with him in support of a 12 month trial of the technology, evidence based approach in other words.
Hearing a 2GB shock jock demolish Perrottet’s spin around this was surprising in the extreme.
this 12 month trile idea pokliticaly makes sence most nsw voters including my self have no idea what the nsw crime comition does and the comitioner efectively indorsing the liberals in he middle of the electiobn makes his position compremised as a political operater plus Minns focus on main stream ishues like the teacher shortige in schools and lack of g ps which a lot of people expirence merged clas rooms is a lot more relivant to the averige voter then gambling which unles your personaly effected would not move many votes desbite the heralds best efforts 2 g b also owned buy nine has takin a different approach and have been suprisingly fair to minns
focusing on cost of living and toles and teacher shorting health is also smart because it shows while perottit is focusing on a culture war minns and labor are pitching foor the main steream votes they need in subirban seats such as penrith and lepington the herald did not have a problim when the liberals lind up with clubs nsw against gillards similar policy in 2011
focusing on cost of living and toles and teacher shorting health is also smart because it shows while perottit is focusing on a culture war minns and labor are pitching foor the main steream votes they need in subirban seats such as penrith and lepington the herald did not have a problim when the liberals lind up with clubs nsw against gillards similar policy in 2011 fordim seems to be taking a very similar lyne to okefe and even chanel nine news and the today show were not convinced with the chanel nine reporter saying most voters are largly dis interested in this ishue more concerned with cost of living
i cant see the report against Stuart ayres helping him in penrith i think perottit will be questiond on the finding against ayres and given he wants to return him to cabenit heappears to be a key member of the modderit faction and garith wards continued liberal links its not a good look foor the liberals
Evan @ 4.30 pm, Sunday
As with Wahroonga and no candidate, so it still is in Epping.
It is not a particularly good look for Labor to not have a candidate against the Premier, even if he holds the seat on a considerable margin.
i dont see what the big deal is whiy woyuld labor waist resources on a candadate in epping when they will never win it is a bad look not having candadates in fairfield and cabramatter though how ever evan the liberals also do not have a candadate against Minns this pockies thing is not working foor liberals iva perottit was forced to admit that it ws his cathlick faith pushing this it seems he forced his cabenit to back it even though they did not want this distraction
how ever it seems the integrity especialy the barilarow scandle is realy hurting liberals particularly stuart Ayres in penrith that is whiy tghe liberals went hard against banks town mayor but it back fired as minns got him to resign so after the barilarow committy the liberals in upper house helped by one nation set up there own one toatempt to distroy cantebery banks town cowncil how ever the top most complaind cowncil senteral cost is actualy under the state governmentapointed leadership and suverlind shier is controlled buy liberals and darol mcgwire had dealings withthe old cantabery cowncil so a suprising move
its strange minns seems to be campaigning in paramatter more then any other seat was there again with donna Davis iva he is concerned abbout her lack of local support from the party members or maybi he thinks it is winable but he has not spent as much time in other seats like south cost
Aaron Newton: I imagine Minns is campaigning a lot in Parramatta because Labor see the seat as winnable for them, the longtime Liberal MP is retiring at this election and Labor have preselected a high profile candidate, Donna Davis, the local Mayor.
Bennelong Lurker: Yes mate, pretty slack on Labor’s part that they as yet haven’t preselected candidates for Epping and Wahroonga. Even though both are extremely safe Liberal seats and Perrottett holds Epping, the Labor supporters in those areas(you and me for example) would like someone to vote for from our side of politics.
I see that Labor have got a candidate for the seat of Hornsby, going up against Matt Kean.
Also based on Federal election voting figures in 2022, Parramatta at state level would be an easy Labor gain, hence why Minns is parked out there a lot, ditto in relation to Riverstone.
AARON NEWTON comments on cashless card :-
even chanel nine news and the today show were not convinced with the chanel nine reporter saying most voters are largly dis interested in this ishue more concerned with cost of living.
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As someone who never plays the pokies, I couldn’t give a rats about this policy. I would think that this cashless gaming card will only appeal to a very small minority and this will be balanced out by the very small minority who will be against it.
While Minns has done the right thing to counteract this by his 12 month trial, as Aaron said most voters have other concerns.
Minns should be reminding voters of how they were deceived by MISS POPULARITY Gladys Berejiklian and her lover boy as well as letting in hundreds of COVID passengers from the Ruby Princess.
Minns should also remind voters that ICAC has yet to report on their interrogation of their previous premier.
minns did a better job pushing back at the heraldspushing the vieweven today with his claim that his cathlick faith influenced the policy seems nonsence he was the minister that pushed harder foor the casino speaking of organized crime what about the liberals still allowing property developers to serve as cowncilor labor should also point out icac and alsoformer liberal mp appointment as general manager of liverpool cowncil as well the liberals did evry thing posible to allow packer to operate his casenow with the backing of tim costellow who claims to be anti gambling but after packer resignedsuddinly money laundering does not need to be stopd in the caseno
apart from packer him self dont think any one was asking foore it now on the eave of a election defeat foor yarin finklestien to come with this policy using the crime comition and now the policecomitioner to make politicial comments is concerning i have never heard a nsw police comitioner make political comments before an election backing a particular position which makes there position along with the crime comitioner would have to consider there position if minns wins
minns is clearlyrelucdint to go on the attack and prefers to be positive now he got rid of searle who was very effective in being attack dog particularly in his role in the upper house investergations in togladis he needs a attack dog like matt kean is foor perottit to go on the attack and remind voters about liberal integrity walt secord would have been the obveous person but now he is leaving maybi prue car rose jackson or coughtney houssos could fill the role
on likely nsw ministers under minns hopefuly houssos will get a senyor position the biggest dissapointment has been john Graham he gets reasonable media but has been in effective as shadow roads spokesman hopefuly him and daley will be dumpt or given an other role given minns focus on toles it is terible that Graham has not come up with a policy and waisted his conference speech calling foor a inquiry in to poverty in nsw he clearly seems dis interested in his roads portfoleo and seems moore interested in houseing inequality and music maybi rose jackson would be better simarly daley has not dun much as shadow aterney
then againthe minister natulie ward has not been a great performer iva but where is graham on toles maybi graham forgot poverty is being looked at the federal levil maybi he could focus moore on his portfoleo
It is a pity that Labor haven’t yet picked a candidate for Perrottet’s seat of Epping.
No seat should be taken for granted by any party or indie.
In QLD in Jan 2015 LNP Premier Campbell Newman was kicked out of his seat of Ashgrove along with his disastrous government after only three years in office.
Kate Jones the former seat holder and former minister in Labor’s Anna Bligh government won back the seat with a 10% swing, proving that Premiers can be defeated if they are on the nose, as is Perrottet.
Perrottet has been in parliament for over a decade sitting alongside Gladys who was forced to resign after being called up before ICAC and also the dubious John Barilaro who also has been referred to ICAC.
its also dissapointing about fairfield and cabramatter apartly the cris bowen backed david saliba will run in fairfield butno idea in cabramatter it will nt be tu le as she seems to have little support and hayes and her undermining kenearly did not help given hayes and her were not local you would have thought labor would have preselected early in the fairfield seats un les there candadates are no good this is even worse then perottits seat the fact lallich could not represent his community properly at least for four years yet there gave him an other term shows labor needs to start respecting the local members there it was odd of hayes who him self was not from the aeria to atempt to parashute tu le
thensw liberals have struggled to find many candadates including a candadate to run against minns along witha candadate to run against garith ward it looks like the party may not even run in kiamer after all aparently he still has strong support in the local branches with secora wwinning preselection for south cost how willsidotis seat going can labor winn it his staffer is the parties candadate
how do we think nsw election will go
“how do we think nsw election will go”
I think Terry Campese will let most of it hang out in pursuit of triumph.
so it seems no body cares about perotits gambling reforms minns is focusing onprivatisation
speaking of nsw election what happind to matrk latham desbite much hype i can not think of any thing he has actualy dun while in parliament okayis a regular on sky news and 2gb and seeks to back any culture war that the right back now its so called religis fredom given one nationshaving no real high profile candadates apart from hanson realizing the party would not winn any seats he isgaming the system hopeing his name on the ticket will increase the vote i dont think so he will be lucky to get him self elected let alone getting a second candadate up apart from gladis he has basickly acted as a back up foor the coalition and perottit
i cant emagin lathams desition to parashoot a little known labor mp from banks town of all places would go down well with the members people who had been backing the party foor years were over looked for a mp who has dun little in her decade in parlaiament acsept attack the left and protend to back coal workers desbite being in a sydney seat and having no local backing but saved buy head office then to when head office gets rid of them they join one nation
Aaron, as a Labor partisan, I am astounded that you truly believe that not contesting in Blue Ribbon Liberal-Country Party seats is not big deal.
By your own, flawed, logic then the ALP shouldn’t field candidates or contest electorates where there is little chance of winning.
However, the huge flaw in your logic is that in NSW we have two chambers of parliament and in order to maximise the vote in each chamber, voters need to complete two ballot papers.
It is not the always “have voted Labor” folk which can be guaranteed to vote ALP for both Houses of Parliament.
It is the non-partisan votes which need to be harvested, especially for the Upper House.
If these voters attend a Polling Place and see that there isn’t a candidate of the party which they support there is a huge chance that they may place their votes, for both Houses, with an alternative candidate.
This is a safe LCP seat strategy may work in a by-election with little electoral impact.
However, as demonstrated in the Willoughby By-Election, last year, standing an official ALP candidate and strategic preferential selections may have resulted in a Green or Independent candidate seizing this seat from the LP.
okay but fairfield and cabramatter is more serious there safe seats and with no cadadates yet isnt that more important then against the premier ashgroave was a marginal qld seat unlike the premiers
The whole preselection of candidates, at both the state and federal level has been a total stuff up.
Nothing has been learnt from the 2022 Federal Election.
All of these pre-selections, particularly in marginal or winnable seats, should have been finalised six or twelve months ago.
All the electorate is seeing is internecine battles between people and factions which they have little knowledge or care, from both major parties.
i dont think so wwith a couple of casis labor seems to be united in nsw how ever the liberals are not
Hey Macca RB
I agree with everything you said above, until the last 3 lines.
Labor outpolled both the IND and the Green at the 2019 state election in Willoughby and (went onto) secured 21% of the vote in that area in the May 2022 election (28% in the Senate). Why would they have an objective of standing a candidate so they could strategically preference other candidates (including another competing party!) so these other candidates could win the seat?? That’s a sure fire route straight to irrelevance….
High Street @ 9.58pm
Thanks for your comments regarding Willoughby.
If they polled so well in 2019, then I can’t comprehend why they didn’t contest in the 2022 by-election.
Willoughby is a seat which the ALP has never won.
My point regarding strategic voting, as demonstrated in the 2022 Federal Election, is that in seats – where you may have little chance of winning or have never won, previously, may result in the Coalition losing a seat to an Independent.
The harvesting of the 28% Seate vote was the point which I was making to Aaron, in regard to the upcoming NSW Election and the Legislative Council vote.
By the way I have always voted ALP – and following the wisdom of Grandfather Bill – I never Vote 1 (in NSW elections) but always preference each ballot and vote below the line to strategically place the LNP candidate(s), last.
At this election there are not many safe seats for the coalition. Epping on federal figures would be Labor held.I expect the premier to win here however. The question is the by election post the nsw election
Thanks for your reply Macca RB. I also do not know why they did not stand in the by election – they would have got an easy > 10% swing for little cost or effort. I just don’t think causing the other side to lose to an IND is necessarily always good for your party.
I do need to pick you up on something else though. As per the Tallyroom profile of Willoughby:
Laurie McGinty won Willoughby for the Liberal Party in 1968. He served as a minister from 1973 to 1976. McGinty was defeated for preselection in 1978 by Nick Greiner. McGinty ran as an independent, and directed preferences to the ALP. The seat was won by Labor candidate Eddie Britt.
So Labor have won – once! They have never won North Sydney since Federation.
yes labor won once still think the fairfield seats is worse labor will eventualy have a candadate in epping but them oore winable seat that covers benalong is ride
Edward Larkin won Willoughby for the ALP in 1913 before perishing at Gallipoli.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Larkin
what about winable seats like penrith i dont think labor will pick up safe liberal seats
Best chances for Labor gains are East Hills, Penrith, Leppington, Oatley, Parramatta, and Riverstone.
Upper Hunter is a rough chance.
Ryde might be a sleeper.
Writing Monaro off now because of that video of Terry Campese that surfaced this week.
Apparently at the Labor event the other day there was a big rallying cry to all the seats they claimed they’d grab. All Western Sydney + Kiama.
Not sure the specific seats but I assume Penrith, Parramatta, East Hills, Holsworthy, Leppington (nominally theirs), Riverstone. Throw in redistributed Heathcote and Bega retain and that’s minority. Winston Hills and Camden would be in the hunt too. That’s 46.
not sure about east hills the labor candadate i think backed buy the soft left faction kylie wilkinson is not well known not sure whiy she was chosin they backed Cameron murphhy the last two elections there was a big campaign from the Cfmmeu and the soft left lead buy paul lynch to preselect him foor the upper house but he does not dun much campaign and still lives in east hills desbite running for a country seat
i dont understand whiy the soft left continues decades on with backing of cfmeu continues to split from the main left faction if the party wanted an other mp to basickly speak on human rights ishues that dont relate to nsw and go against the leadership they all ready have Anthony d adam and linda voltz has has not dun a hole lot in her long corear maybi vietsch may have helped labor pick up country seats but murphy is not doing much dont think he is even campaigning after east hills its suprising he was given another go
Re East Hills – Can’t comment on the internals, just on the narrow margin. Either way if Labor want a majority but aren’t winning seats like East Hills on 0.4% then they’ve got a problem.
Thanks, High Street & Shellbell for your information regarding previous members for Willoughby.
There are lots of guesses here.. East Hills sits on a 0.1% liberal margin. The global ..ie nsw opinion polls are predicting a 6 to 8% swing to Labor. Also Tania Mihailuk is now gone to the “greener fields” of onp. She in the Bankstown prepoll and joint booths was suppressing the votes of other endorsed alp candidates other than her self… this lost Labor 300 to 500 votes in East Hills.. so a repeat of the 2019 election on the current boundaries would possibly have given Labor a very narrow victory before any swing their way. I can’t see how Labor could fail to win here