Category: New South Wales Politics

Resolve Strategic: Labor 32, Coalition 35, Greens 11 in New South Wales

Another poll suggests Labor has gone backwards in New South Wales since last year’s election win, plus updates on two looming state by-elections.

The Sydney Morning Herald’s Resolve Monitor display of Resolve Strategic polling has been updated with the latest bi-monthly state voting intention results for New South Wales, which have Labor down a point from March-April to 32%, the Coalition down one to 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, independents up one to 15% and others up two to 7%. This suggests a Labor lead of around 52-48 on two-party preferred, which is slightly wider than the 50.5-49.5 I estimated from the recent RedBridge Group state poll, but still a swing to the Coalition of upwards of 2% from the March 2023 election. Chris Minns holds a 38-13 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, out from 37-16, with an already hefty uncommitted component out from 47% to 49%. The poll was compiled from two sets of Resolve Strategic’s monthly national surveys, with a sample of 1000.

UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald now has a report on the poll, which further relates that 50% support the government’s policy of higher density housing around train stations with 31% opposed.

In other New South Wales state electoral news, two by-elections are looming, one imminently, the other on a date to be determined. The former is for the New England region seat of Northern Tablelands, to be held on Saturday following the retirement of Nationals member Adam Marshall. Marshall was elected four times from 2013 to 2023 with primary vote shares of between 63.3% and 73.5%. With his designated Nationals successor Brendan Moylan facing only low-key competition among a field of five, there is little reason to expect much different this time. If you’re still interested to learn more after that sales pitch, you are directed to my guide to the by-election, and are invited to follow my coverage of the count on Saturday night, which I can relate that no other media outlet is bothering with.

The second by-election is that resulting from Tuesday’s announcement by former Treasurer Matt Kean that he will call time on his state parliamentary career, resulting in a vacancy in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney seat of Hornsby. This follows suggestions last week that Kean might challenge Paul Fletcher for preselection in Bradfield, where the teal threat has seemingly intensified following last week’s publication of proposed new electoral boundaries. However, Kean has scotched the idea, with Paul Sakkal of Sydney Morning Herald reporting Liberal sources saying he would only pursue the seat if Fletcher retired. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports two names have been suggested as Kean’s successor in Hornsby: deputy Liberal leader Natalie Ward, who failed in a bid to move from the upper house to the lower before last year’s election by seeking preselection in Davidson, and James Wallace, Corrs Chambers Westgarth lawyer and moderate factional ally of Kean. However, both are said not to be planning on contesting.

Polls: Roy Morgan and RedBridge NSW state (open thread)

Rather surprising federal and New South Wales state poll results, plus the latest on a seemingly uneventful state by-election to be held the Saturday after next.

Two disturbances to an otherwise quiet week on the polling front:

• The usual weekly Roy Morgan poll is something of an outlier in recording a 53.5-46.5 lead for Labor, out from 52-48 last week and 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition the week before. Despite this, Labor’s primary vote is actually down half a point to 30.5%, with the Coalition down one to 35%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 15.5% and One Nation up one to 5.5%. We are also told that state breakdowns had Labor ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and 57.5% in Victoria and the Coalition ahead 53-47 in Queensland, which would respectively among to swings of 4.6%, 2.7% and 1.0% to Labor. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• As reported in the Daily Telegraph, RedBridge Group has a third state poll combining survey waves from February and May to follow on from its earlier results for Victoria and Queensland, this time for New South Wales from a sample of 1376. The result is perhaps surprisingly bleak for Chris Minns’ Labor government, which is credited with a two-partly lead of just 50.5-49.5, compared with its 54.3-45.7 winning margin at the March 2023 election. The primary votes are Labor 35%, compared with 37.0% at the election, Coalition 40%, compared with 35.4%, and Greens 11%, compared with 9.7%. Despite this, 40% separately rate the government’s performance as good or very good compared with 20% for poor and 32% for neither, while “the Liberal-National opposition led by Mark Speakman” scores 19% positive, 21% negative and 41% neither.

Staying in New South Wales, a by-election for the safe Nationals seat of Northern Tablelands will be held on June 22. The Nationals candidate is Brendan Moylan, a Moree solicitor who outgoing member Adam Marshall says was “overwhelmingly” preselected in a vote of around 200 local party members. Labor is not fielding a candidate, with Moylan’s competition consisting of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, the Greens and two independents.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 33, Coalition 36, Greens 12 in NSW

The second New South Wales state poll for the year suggests Labor is still in front, but has gone backwards from the result that failed to win it a majority last March.

The bi-monthly Resolve Strategic poll has not been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald, but the results appear on the Political Monitor poll display feature of the paper’s website. It finds both major parties down since the previous poll, in which the Coalition opened up a primary vote for the first time since the March 2023 election, with Labor down a point to 33% and the Coalition down two to 36%. The Greens are steady on 12%, with the generic independent category up two to 14% and others steady on 5%. This suggests a two-party preferred lead to Labor of around 52-48, compared with an election result of 54.3-45.7. Chris Minns is credited with a 37-16 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, out from 35-16 last time. The result was derived from the national Resolve Strategic polls conducted March 21 to 24 and April 17 to 21, from a sample of 1000.

In other New South Wales state politics news, a by-election looms for a date yet to be determined in the rural seat of Northern Tablelands following the resignation of Nationals MP Adam Marshall, who cited the “demanding and all-consuming role”. However, the Sydney Morning Herald notes suggestions the 39-year-old Marshall may be planning to succeed Barnaby Joyce in the corresponding federal seat of New England.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 34, Coalition 38, Greens 12 in NSW

The first New South Wales poll for the year records a surprise surge in support for the Coalition.

The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday published a New South Wales state poll from Resolve Strategic, which even more than last week’s federal result was a lot less strong for Labor than the pollster’s past form. A Coalition that has been struggling through its first year in opposition is credited with a six-point spike on the primary vote since November to 38%, while Labor is down three to 34%. The Greens are down a point to 12%, a generic independents category is steady on 12%, and “others” is down two to 5%. This suggests a two-party result of around 51.5-48.5 in Labor’s favour, compared with 54.3-45.7 at the election last March.

A preferred premier question continues to produce a high undecided result, although it has narrowed to the extent Chris Minns’ lead over Liberal leader Mark Speakman is out from 35-13 to 35-16. The accompanying report says the sample for the poll was 1035, but is silent on the question of field work dates. It thus leaves unanswered the question of whether the interruption of New Year has prompted a change to the pollster’s normal practice of combining state results from the past two monthly national surveys, last week’s poll having been the first since early December.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 32, Greens 13 in New South Wales

Minor parties up and majors down in the latest bi-monthly New South Wales state result from Resolve Strategic.

Yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald carried results of a Resolve Strategic poll of state voting intention in New South Wales that has both major parties down on the primary vote from the mid-September poll – Labor by two to 36%, and the Coalition by four to 32%. The beneficiaries are minor parties, with the Greens up four to 13% and others up three to 7%, with a generic independents option down one to 12%. Based on preference flows from the March state election*, I make this 56.6-43.4 to Labor on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 54.3-45.7. Chris Minns holds a 35-13 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier, in from 41-14.

As is usually the case with Resolve Strategic’s New South Wales and Victorian state polls, this one combines two sets of surveys conducted a month apart, in the first weeks of the previous and present month. The former presumably formed part of the pre-referendum national poll, but the provenance of the latter is a mystery for now, as the state polling results are usually released after federal ones and we have as yet had no federal Resolve Strategic poll for November. There is presuambly a strong chance this will change shortly. The overall sample for the poll is 1044.

* Since I went to the trouble of crunching the ballot paper data to work this out, I will record here that Greens preferences went 59.5% to Labor, 7.3% to the Coalition and 33.2% exhausted, while all others went 22.7% to Labor, 20.3% to the Coalition and 57.0% exhausted.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 38, Coalition 36, Greens 9 in NSW

Resolve Strategic latest bi-monthly result from New South Wales has Labor down three points for the second time in a row.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports Resolve Strategic’s bi-monthly read of New South Wales state voting intention has Labor’s primary vote down three points on the last bi-monthly result to 38% (and six from the poll before that in May), with the Coalition up four to 36% and the Greens down one to 9%. A rough-and-ready reckoning of the two-party preferred vote comes out at about 54-46 in favour of Labor, in from 58.5-41.5 last time. The results at the March state election were Labor 37.0%, Coalition 35.4% and Greens 9.7%, with Labor winning the two-party preferred 54.3-45.7. Despite the narrowing, the size of Chris Minns’ lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier is unchanged, nudging from 39-12 to 41-14 with a still high 46% uncommitted. The sample was 1019, and I presume was combined from the pollster’s last two national surveys, from September 6 to 9 and August 9 to 12.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 41, Coalition 32, Greens 10 in NSW

The Minns government still dominant in the second poll since its election, though a little less so than in the first; and Gladys Berejiklian seemingly acquitted in the court of public opinion.

The Sydney Morning Herald had poll results from Resolve Strategic on state voting intention in New South Wales on Friday, which escaped my notice at the time. The poll had Labor on 41% of the primary vote, down three from May, with the Coalition up one to 32% and the Greens up one to 10%. This would come out at about 58-42 in Labor’s favour based on preference flows at the election, at which the primary votes were Labor 37.0%, Coalition 35.4% and Greens 9.7% and the two-party preferred 54.3-45.7. The results combine the New South Wales responses from pollster’s last two monthly national surveys, with a sample of 1012.

Also featured were questions on Gladys Berejiklian that found most of her teflon coating intact, with 51% saying they still liked and respected her while 25% did not (those who never did in the first place presumably being obliged to favour the latter response). Thirty-three per cent agreed that ICAC had “eroded any positive views I held” compared with 42% disagreeing, while 40% agreed Berejiklian should not have resigned as Premier based on what came out of ICAC, with 34% disagreeing. These results are based only on the most recent survey period, from Wednesday to Saturday last week, with a sample of 556.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 44, Coalition 31, Greens 9 in New South Wales

A garden variety post-change of government poll in New South Wales records a honeymoon voting intention lead and seemingly little name recognition for the new Opposition Leader.

Resolve Strategic produces the first public poll of New South Wales state voting intention since the election of the Minns government in March, finding Labor’s honeymoon kicking in with a lead over the Coalition of 44% to 31% on the primary vote, compared with 37.0% to 35.4% at the election, with the Greens on 9% as compared with 9.7%. I make this to be a two-party preferred lead of about 60-40 based on preference flows at the election. Chris Minns scores a 42-12 lead over the new Opposition Leader, Mark Speakman, as preferred premier.

The poll combines results from the pollster’s last two national polls, which were conducted from April 12 to 16 and May 10 to 14, from a combined sample of 1102. The 552 from the more recent survey period were asked to pick three cost of living pressures as being of most concern: with little change from January, fresh food and groceries led in being chosen by 65%, followed by utility bills with 58%. Medical expenses falls from 34% to 25%, relinquishing third place to the cost of a home on 28%.

UPDATE: An instructive talk by Antony Green on the March state election at the New South Wales State Library can be viewed on the parliamentary website.

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