New South Wales election minus eleven days

Coalition candidate troubles, plus seat polling from North Shore and Riverstone.

Recent highlights, such as they are, from a distinctly uneventful New South Wales state election campaign:

• Too late to affect their placement on the ballot paper, the Coalition have disendorsed two candidates in no chance seats this week over past indiscretions on Twitter: 20-year-old Ash Barnham in Cessnock, who has been dropped by the Nationals over comments two years ago denigrating women, gays and Jews, and Liberal candidate Matthew Squires in Wyong, who among other things described homosexuality as a “perversion”.

• A report in the Daily Telegraph on Saturday, which I can’t find online, related a Climate 200 poll showing an effective dead heat between Liberal member Felicity Wilson and teal independent Helen Conway in North Shore, with the former leading 50.7-49.3 on two-candidate preferred. Wilson led 33.6% to 17.9% on the primary vote, with Labor on 16.6%, the Greens on 10.4% and 9.8% uncommitted. The poll had a sample of 600, with no field work dates identified in the report. Liberal sources quoted in The Australian today say the party is concerned about independents in North Shore, Wakehurst and Willoughby, but seemingly less so in Manly and Vaucluse.

• The Financial Review last week reported that Freshwater Strategy found Labor candidate Warren Kirby with a 54-46 lead over Liberal candidate Mohit Kumar in Riverstone, from primary votes of Labor 40%, Liberal 37%, Greens 7% and One Nation 7%. The accompanying report was distinctly light on further detail, but this appears to have been a supplement to the statewide poll published by the paper last week, which was conducted the Thursday to Saturday before last.

UPDATE: Adrian Beaumont’s latest piece in The Conversation draws attention to seat polls I had missed from Redbridge Group, showing Labor 54-46 ahead in Parramatta but the Liberals 51-49 ahead in Penrith (though the accompanying release acknowledges the Liberal vote is “a little under-reported” in the former).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

154 comments on “New South Wales election minus eleven days”

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  1. MABWMsays:
    Saturday, March 18, 2023 at 6:01 pm
    My belief remains that the ALP will win the NSW election in one week, but I am astounded by the complete lack of interest. I reckon about a third of NSW still don’t know they have an election next week.

    AS for this optional preferential voting garbage – what a con! It is appallingly undemocratic. Next federal election a significant portion of the electorate will spoil their vote because of it.
    FPTP is ridiculous in ant event but deliberately exhausting your vote is just careless in the true sense of the word.

    These ideas always eventually come back to bite the perpetrators (think NSW liberals and ICAC!)

    Optional Preferential voting is introduced by Wran Labor government. It is biting NSW Labor now on its so arse, it is howling with pain. Karma can turn against you.

  2. I kind of think Myall Lakes is interesting with recent passing of the sitting MP; his inexperienced staffer is the Nats candidate. She’s been relying a lot on what the party tells her to say, always having to read off a piece of paper, a bit uninspiring. There is a high profile independent doctor running and with a lacklustre labor campaign, I think the independent could take some votes and come second. With a moderate swing against the Nationals, this could be a surprise independent gain. The Deputy Premier has visited a few times in last couple weeks so I wonder if there is some internal concern they might lose this safe seat. Sadly not covered well in the news and reflects why it feels like the area doesn’t get much funding; it’s seen to be too safe!

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