Indigenous Voice: Newspoll, JWS Research and DemosAU polls

A fair bit of diversity in late polling on the margin for the Indigenous Voice, but clear unanimity on the result.

I have a live results feature standing ready for service this evening, which will presume to offer projections according to a somewhat experimental method that will be explained further below, together with individual results pages by electoral division featuring booth results displayed in table and map form (click on “activate” at the bottom of the individual seat pages for the latter). It may be the only place where the latter data will be available online, not counting the Australian Electoral Commission media feed from which it will be extracted.

Some final polls are in, with pollsters collectively offering a fairly wide spread that means the contest for post-result bragging rights is wide open:

The Australian has a Newspoll result that concurs with others in finding movement back to yes – though by an entirely insufficient three points to 37%, with no down one to 57%. The 1413 sample from this poll has been combined with 1225 sample poll from last week to produce state breakdowns with no leading 54-41 in New South Wales, 51-43 in Victoria, 65-30 in Queensland, 65-28 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-38 in Tasmania. The new batch of polling means we are also treated to a second set of Newspoll federal voting intention numbers in a week, in this case putting Labor ahead 54-46 (53-47 last week) from primary votes of Labor 36% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (up one).

• A JWS Research poll in the Financial Review has no at 52% and yes at 39%, converting to 57-43 after exclusion of the undecided. The poll was conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 922.

• The Australian related yesterday that a poll conducted from October 1 to 9 by DemosAU, whose director George Hasanakos had a polling analysis website back in the day called Poliquant, had no leading 57% to 30% in both Queensland and Western Australia.

The projection model in my results will use the seat-level estimates from Focaldata’s multi-level regression with post-stratification exercise as a baseline for measuring the results as they are reported. However much the results that are in differ from what Focaldata predicted will then be projected on to Focaldata’s overall results at state level. Doubtless this will be noiser than the booth-matched swings methods that can be applied at elections, but it should at least go some way towards correcting for the peculiarities of the early numbers.

My attention this evening will be focused on the referendum, but I will have some sort of a post up following the progress of counting in New Zealand, a dedicated thread for which is here.

Indigenous Voice referendum minus two days

Mixed messages on voting intention among the younger cohort, and the first data in some time on how the Indigenous community plans to vote.

Roy Morgan has an Indigenous Voice poll of 905 respondents conducted last Monday to Sunday showing a relatively modest lead for no of 50-45. The accompanying release relates that we will shortly see “full results of surveying over the last two weeks, including detailed state-by-state, gender, age and party support breakdowns”.

There’s a fair bit of this sort of thing around at the moment, notably a Resolve Strategic document running to 100 pages covering every imaginable detail of this week’s 4728 sample poll, barring a few redacted details that are being held back to provide material for Nine Newspapers reports. The difference between Resolve Strategic’s 56-44 to no and Newspoll’s 58-34 comes largely down to the 18-to-34 cohort, which is difficult to poll and accordingly tends to get upweighted. Resolve’s has it breaking 62-38 in favour of yes, while the Newspoll has it at 49% no, 46% yes and the rest uncommitted.

The main story from the poll is that it’s the first one to provide any indication of Indigenous support since early in the year, after going to particular effort to secure a sub-sample of 420 (the report stresses that this “will not adequately cover remote communities”). The result is a split of 59-41 in favour of yes, a good deal narrower than much-disputed figures of 80-20 from earlier in the year. Kevin Bonham knows something I don’t in relating that “there is another one of these coming from another pollster that is mid-high 60s but smaller sample”.

There is also some further detail in The Economist in the other day’s poll from British outfit Focaldata, emphasising an age gap that looks more like Resolve’s than Newspoll’s. The accompanying multi-level regression with post-stratification exercise that produced demographically related estimates for each House of Representatives seat was discussed the other day on Twitter by pollsters Kos Samaras and Shaun Ratliff, the former saying it “missed demographic nuances, including education levels and ethnic make-up of regional seats” (more recently arrived groups being stronger for yes), the latter saying at least double the 4000 sample would be needed for duly robust results. UPDATE: More from Focaldata here.

UPDATE (13/10): There is now also a result from YouGov that has no up three points from its poll last week to 56%, with yes steady at 38%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519. Roy Morgan has also expanded on the poll reported above as being conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 905, with a field work period now extending to today (Thursday) and a sample up to 1419. It has no leading 51% to 44%, breaking down to 49% to 46% in New South Wales, 64% to 30% in Queensland, 54% to 44% in Western Australia, 51% to 39% in South Australia and 52% to 47% in Tasmania, with yes leading 54% to 42% in Victoria (with due regard to small sub-samples here, particularly in the smaller states).

Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

Another poll finding Labor comfortably ahead despite the seemingly imminent failure of the Indigenous Voice project.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll gets a rare guernsey as a dedicated Poll Bludger post due to the need to keep an open thread somewhere near the top of the page, between the latest Indigenous Voice post and a forthcoming look at Saturday’s election in New Zealand. Labor leads 53-47 on the latest numbers, out from 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up half), Coalition 34% (down three-and-a-half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). The disparity between the movements on the former and latter measures suggest Labor got a weak respondent-allocated preference flow this time around – previous election preferences would have it at more like 54-46.

UPDATE: It appears YouGov federal polling will be a weekly event. As well as Indigenous Voice numbers featured in the relevant post, it latest numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval is at steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton has improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 12 (open thread)

A Resolve Strategic poll off an expanded sample to accommodate detailed Indigenous Voice results does nothing to change its status as the strongest poll series for Labor.

Nine Newspapers have published the latest federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic, which offer no indication that declining support for the Indigenous Voice has damaged the Labor government. Labor is credited with 37% of the primary vote, up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three to 31%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are up two to 7%. The pollster does not provide two-party results, but based on previous election preference flows, this comes out at around 57-43. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four to 44%, and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four to 43%. Peter Dutton is respectively down five to 30% and up two to 45%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 47-25, out from 43-28.

The voting intention numbers are from the same juiced-up sample of 4728 and extended field work period of September 22 to October 4 that produced yesterday’s Indigenous Voice result of 56-44 in favour of no, which reflected the voting intention in being more favourable to the government than the tenor of polling elsewhere. I might have hoped this would have meant more comprehensive state breakdowns than usual, but there is no sign of that to this point, with only the usual results for the three largest states provided on the Resolve Monitor display.

The sample for the leaders’ ratings was only 1604, which presumably relates to the 3116 sample size for separately published follow-up results today on the Indigenous Voice – evidently respondents were asked one set of questions or the other. Among many other things, the Indigenous Voice results offer the finding that 38% of respondents considered that colonisation had had a positive impact on Indigenous people compared with only 23% for negative and 41% for mixed or unsure.

The usual practice for Resolve Strategic is to follow up its national poll later in the week with state results for New South Wales or Victoria, alternating between the two with samples that combine results from two of the monthly polls. This month was due to be the turn of Victoria, but given the extended sample and the complication of the change in Premier from one polling period to the next, I’m not sure where things stand on this particular occasion.

Indigenous Voice: Resolve Strategic, Newspoll, Focaldata

Three new polls find no well ahead, including one offering projections at electorate level.

As the campaign enters its final week, three new poll results of note:

• Nine Newspapers have a large sample poll from Resolve Strategic finding 49% for no and 38% for yes, respectively steady and up three since last month. Thirty-seven per cent were definite for no, while 25% were definite for yes. Excluding the undecided, the result was 56-44 for no, in from 57-43 last time. Broken down by state, no leads 52.3-47.7 in New South Wales, 54.2-45.8 in Victoria, 64.2-35.8 in Queensland, 61.2-38.8 in Western Australia and 55.5-44.5 in South Australia, with the small sample from Tasmania producing a 56.1-43.9 in favour of yes. The poll was conducted September 22 to October 4 from a sample of 4728.

Newspoll in The Australian found support for yes continuing to deteriorate, with no up two since the last poll three weeks ago to 58% and yes down two to 34%.

• British pollster Focaldata has conducted a poll showing no leading 61-39, and while details of how it was conducted are currently scarce, it has yielded results at seat level using multi-level regression with post-stratification, similar to an exercise conducted by YouGov before the last federal election (which came in a bit high for Labor and undersold the teals). It has yes leading in 22 seats out of 151, which are overwhelmingly inner-city seats where the Greens are strong, plus all three seats in the ACT. The only teal seat with yes ahead is North Sydney, although Kooyong and Wentworth are lineball.

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll’s latest voting intention numbers add to a general impression of a slow narrowing in Labor’s lead.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down two from the previous poll three weeks ago, although the accompanying report only says one), Coalition 36% (steady), the Greens 12% (up one) and One Nation 5% (down one). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton recovers from a slump in the previous result to gain five on approval to 37% and lose two on disapproval to 50%, which still leaves him behind where he was two polls ago. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 50-30 to 50-33.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1225. There are also several sets of polling on the Indigenous Voice, including from Newspoll and all showing no well ahead, which will be covered in a separate post later this evening.

Weekend miscellany: YouGov and Morgan, NSW Senate vacancy latest (open thread)

YouGov returns to the polling game, and some surprise late names emerge to fill Marise Payne’s Liberal Senate vacancy.

Federally relevant developments of note from the past week that do not specifically relate to the Indigenous Voice referendum:

• As noted as a post-script to the Indigenous Voice post, YouGov has entered the polling game independently of its former status as the pollster behind Newspoll. Its debut federal voting intention result had Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday before last from a sample of 1563.

• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 32.5%, Coalition 37.5% and Greens 13%.

• With the close of nominations on Wednesday, ten candidates came forward for the preselection to fill Marise Payne’s Liberal Senate vacancy in New South Wales. The long-presumed front-runner, former state government minister Andrew Constance, faces two high-profile late starters in Zed Seselja, who lost his ACT Senate seat to David Pocock at the last election, and Dave Sharma, who lost Wentworth to Allegra Spender. Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that a two-horse race is anticipated between Constance and Seselja, who are respectively likely to dominate the moderate and conservative blocs. Seselja is one of a number of conservatives to take the field following Nyunggai Warren Mundine’s withdrawal, the others including Monica Tudehope, former policy director to Dominic Perrottet, and Jess Collins, researcher for the Lowy Institute. Also in the field are Lou Amato, a former state upper house member; James Brown, Space Industry Association chief executive; and lawyers Ishita Sethi and Pallavi Sinha. UPDATE: Alexi Demaitriadi of The Australian further reports that the missing name is solicitor Nimalan Rutnam; that moderate support is solid behind Constance, leaving Sharma with no chance; and that “insiders with knowledge of the situation cautioned against underestimating Mr Amato’s numbers”. The vote will take place on November 26.

• The process for the federal redistribution in New South Wales, necessitated by its loss of a seat in the regular mid-term entitlement calculation, has advanced with the setting of October 27 as the deadline for suggestions and the publication of the enrolment data that will be used to make the determination. The latter and its implications have been examined by Antony Green and Ben Raue.

Indigenous Voice polling round-up

With less than a fortnight to go, a slight narrowing in the no lead from Essential Research offers the closest thing to good news for the yes campaign.

As we enter day three of the two-week early voting period for the October 14 Indigenous Voice referendum, the latest poll findings are as follows:

• This fortnight’s Essential Research poll contains an Indigenous Voice referendum result that is unusual in not finding yes in decline — no leads 49-43, which is in from 51-41 a fortnight ago. No includes 42% hard no and 8% soft no, while yes includes 30% hard and 13% soft. A question on whether respondents felt well informed about the referendum found effectively no change over the past month, with yes steady on 49% and no up one to 29%. Forty-nine per cent expected the proposal would fail, compared with 26% who expected it would pass.

• A RedBridge Group poll of 1500 respondents conducted from September 13 to 21 had no leading 62-38. Breakdowns for the three biggest states had no leading 58-42 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Victoria and 68-32 in Queensland.

• A Roy Morgan poll of 1511 respondents conducted from September 18 to 24 had no leading 44-39. Based on small samples, no led 42-40 in New South Wales, 49-31 in Queensland, 46-30 in Western Australia, 48-36 in South Australia, while yes led 46-42 in Victoria. The negligible sample of Tasmanian respondents broke 56-43 to yes.

• With all the latest numbers added, the poll tracker being conducted by Professor Simon Jackman for the ABC currently has no leading 58-42. Jackman’s highly sophisticated methods are explained in detail here.

UPDATE: And now a poll from YouGov, which is no longer involved with Newspoll but from which I am told we can expect a fair bit of independently conducted polling in future, a finding that no leads 53-38. It comes, furthermore, with voting intention results showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1563.

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