Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

Another poll finding Labor comfortably ahead despite the seemingly imminent failure of the Indigenous Voice project.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll gets a rare guernsey as a dedicated Poll Bludger post due to the need to keep an open thread somewhere near the top of the page, between the latest Indigenous Voice post and a forthcoming look at Saturday’s election in New Zealand. Labor leads 53-47 on the latest numbers, out from 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up half), Coalition 34% (down three-and-a-half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). The disparity between the movements on the former and latter measures suggest Labor got a weak respondent-allocated preference flow this time around – previous election preferences would have it at more like 54-46.

UPDATE: It appears YouGov federal polling will be a weekly event. As well as Indigenous Voice numbers featured in the relevant post, it latest numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval is at steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton has improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 12 (open thread)

A Resolve Strategic poll off an expanded sample to accommodate detailed Indigenous Voice results does nothing to change its status as the strongest poll series for Labor.

Nine Newspapers have published the latest federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic, which offer no indication that declining support for the Indigenous Voice has damaged the Labor government. Labor is credited with 37% of the primary vote, up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three to 31%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are up two to 7%. The pollster does not provide two-party results, but based on previous election preference flows, this comes out at around 57-43. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four to 44%, and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four to 43%. Peter Dutton is respectively down five to 30% and up two to 45%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 47-25, out from 43-28.

The voting intention numbers are from the same juiced-up sample of 4728 and extended field work period of September 22 to October 4 that produced yesterday’s Indigenous Voice result of 56-44 in favour of no, which reflected the voting intention in being more favourable to the government than the tenor of polling elsewhere. I might have hoped this would have meant more comprehensive state breakdowns than usual, but there is no sign of that to this point, with only the usual results for the three largest states provided on the Resolve Monitor display.

The sample for the leaders’ ratings was only 1604, which presumably relates to the 3116 sample size for separately published follow-up results today on the Indigenous Voice – evidently respondents were asked one set of questions or the other. Among many other things, the Indigenous Voice results offer the finding that 38% of respondents considered that colonisation had had a positive impact on Indigenous people compared with only 23% for negative and 41% for mixed or unsure.

The usual practice for Resolve Strategic is to follow up its national poll later in the week with state results for New South Wales or Victoria, alternating between the two with samples that combine results from two of the monthly polls. This month was due to be the turn of Victoria, but given the extended sample and the complication of the change in Premier from one polling period to the next, I’m not sure where things stand on this particular occasion.

Indigenous Voice: Resolve Strategic, Newspoll, Focaldata

Three new polls find no well ahead, including one offering projections at electorate level.

As the campaign enters its final week, three new poll results of note:

• Nine Newspapers have a large sample poll from Resolve Strategic finding 49% for no and 38% for yes, respectively steady and up three since last month. Thirty-seven per cent were definite for no, while 25% were definite for yes. Excluding the undecided, the result was 56-44 for no, in from 57-43 last time. Broken down by state, no leads 52.3-47.7 in New South Wales, 54.2-45.8 in Victoria, 64.2-35.8 in Queensland, 61.2-38.8 in Western Australia and 55.5-44.5 in South Australia, with the small sample from Tasmania producing a 56.1-43.9 in favour of yes. The poll was conducted September 22 to October 4 from a sample of 4728.

Newspoll in The Australian found support for yes continuing to deteriorate, with no up two since the last poll three weeks ago to 58% and yes down two to 34%.

• British pollster Focaldata has conducted a poll showing no leading 61-39, and while details of how it was conducted are currently scarce, it has yielded results at seat level using multi-level regression with post-stratification, similar to an exercise conducted by YouGov before the last federal election (which came in a bit high for Labor and undersold the teals). It has yes leading in 22 seats out of 151, which are overwhelmingly inner-city seats where the Greens are strong, plus all three seats in the ACT. The only teal seat with yes ahead is North Sydney, although Kooyong and Wentworth are lineball.

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll’s latest voting intention numbers add to a general impression of a slow narrowing in Labor’s lead.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down two from the previous poll three weeks ago, although the accompanying report only says one), Coalition 36% (steady), the Greens 12% (up one) and One Nation 5% (down one). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton recovers from a slump in the previous result to gain five on approval to 37% and lose two on disapproval to 50%, which still leaves him behind where he was two polls ago. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 50-30 to 50-33.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1225. There are also several sets of polling on the Indigenous Voice, including from Newspoll and all showing no well ahead, which will be covered in a separate post later this evening.

Weekend miscellany: YouGov and Morgan, NSW Senate vacancy latest (open thread)

YouGov returns to the polling game, and some surprise late names emerge to fill Marise Payne’s Liberal Senate vacancy.

Federally relevant developments of note from the past week that do not specifically relate to the Indigenous Voice referendum:

• As noted as a post-script to the Indigenous Voice post, YouGov has entered the polling game independently of its former status as the pollster behind Newspoll. Its debut federal voting intention result had Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday before last from a sample of 1563.

• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 32.5%, Coalition 37.5% and Greens 13%.

• With the close of nominations on Wednesday, ten candidates came forward for the preselection to fill Marise Payne’s Liberal Senate vacancy in New South Wales. The long-presumed front-runner, former state government minister Andrew Constance, faces two high-profile late starters in Zed Seselja, who lost his ACT Senate seat to David Pocock at the last election, and Dave Sharma, who lost Wentworth to Allegra Spender. Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that a two-horse race is anticipated between Constance and Seselja, who are respectively likely to dominate the moderate and conservative blocs. Seselja is one of a number of conservatives to take the field following Nyunggai Warren Mundine’s withdrawal, the others including Monica Tudehope, former policy director to Dominic Perrottet, and Jess Collins, researcher for the Lowy Institute. Also in the field are Lou Amato, a former state upper house member; James Brown, Space Industry Association chief executive; and lawyers Ishita Sethi and Pallavi Sinha. UPDATE: Alexi Demaitriadi of The Australian further reports that the missing name is solicitor Nimalan Rutnam; that moderate support is solid behind Constance, leaving Sharma with no chance; and that “insiders with knowledge of the situation cautioned against underestimating Mr Amato’s numbers”. The vote will take place on November 26.

• The process for the federal redistribution in New South Wales, necessitated by its loss of a seat in the regular mid-term entitlement calculation, has advanced with the setting of October 27 as the deadline for suggestions and the publication of the enrolment data that will be used to make the determination. The latter and its implications have been examined by Antony Green and Ben Raue.

Indigenous Voice polling round-up

With less than a fortnight to go, a slight narrowing in the no lead from Essential Research offers the closest thing to good news for the yes campaign.

As we enter day three of the two-week early voting period for the October 14 Indigenous Voice referendum, the latest poll findings are as follows:

• This fortnight’s Essential Research poll contains an Indigenous Voice referendum result that is unusual in not finding yes in decline — no leads 49-43, which is in from 51-41 a fortnight ago. No includes 42% hard no and 8% soft no, while yes includes 30% hard and 13% soft. A question on whether respondents felt well informed about the referendum found effectively no change over the past month, with yes steady on 49% and no up one to 29%. Forty-nine per cent expected the proposal would fail, compared with 26% who expected it would pass.

• A RedBridge Group poll of 1500 respondents conducted from September 13 to 21 had no leading 62-38. Breakdowns for the three biggest states had no leading 58-42 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Victoria and 68-32 in Queensland.

• A Roy Morgan poll of 1511 respondents conducted from September 18 to 24 had no leading 44-39. Based on small samples, no led 42-40 in New South Wales, 49-31 in Queensland, 46-30 in Western Australia, 48-36 in South Australia, while yes led 46-42 in Victoria. The negligible sample of Tasmanian respondents broke 56-43 to yes.

• With all the latest numbers added, the poll tracker being conducted by Professor Simon Jackman for the ABC currently has no leading 58-42. Jackman’s highly sophisticated methods are explained in detail here.

UPDATE: And now a poll from YouGov, which is no longer involved with Newspoll but from which I am told we can expect a fair bit of independently conducted polling in future, a finding that no leads 53-38. It comes, furthermore, with voting intention results showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1563.

Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 45 (open thread)

Essential Research spices up an uneventful set of voting intention numbers with a finding that nearly one in ten respondents choose the red pill.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll gives Labor its best result on voting intention in two months, their primary vote up two to 33%, the Coalition steady on 32%, the Greens up one to 14% and One Nation down two to 6%, with the undecided component down one to 5%. Their lead on the 2PP+ measure is out from 49-45 to 50-45. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1125.

Also featured are questions on COVID-19, including a finding that 52% consider Australia well prepared for future pandemics compared with 38% for not well prepared, and an unexpected foray on the “nature of reality”, which finds precisely equal proportions of Coalition, Labor and Greens voters alert to the fact that we are “living in a simulation”. The 301 Victorian respondents were asked to rate Daniel Andrews’ contribution to Victoria, with 37% opting for very good or quite good compared with 40% for very poor or quite poor.

Thursday miscellany: Greens and Liberal Senate vacancies, etc. (open thread)

Victorian Greens Senator Janet Rice to call it a day, Warren Mundine withdraws from contention to replace Marise Payne, and Josh Frydenberg confirms he will sit out the next election.

Apart from a few Indigenous Voice snippets, which I’m holding back for a dedicated post, the only polling action this week has been the regular Roy Morgan result, which has Labor leading 54-46, unchanged on last week, from primary votes of Labor 32.5% (up half), Coalition 35% (up half) and Greens 14% (down one-and-a-half). On the preselection front, there is the following to relate:

• Victorian Greens Senator Janet Rice has announced she will retire from parliament in the first half of next year. James Massola of The Age reports her successor will be chosen by a vote of 2000 to 3000 party members in November. The front-runner is Steph Hodgins-May, who has run three times for the party in Macnamara (known as Melbourne Ports up to 2016) and came within an ace of winning the seat in 2022. Other potential nominees are Monash councillor Josh Fergeus, academic and unionist Apsara Sabaratnam and lawyer Sarah Jefford.

• With Warren Mundine’s withdrawal last week from the preselection race to fill Marise Payne’s New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy, the position is now thought likely to go to Andrew Constance, former state government minister and unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore at last year’s federal election. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports he may face competition from one of a number of factional conservatives: “Mina Zaki, an Afghanistan-born, anti-Taliban activist and cyber expert at consulting firm KPMG; barrister Ishita Sethi; lawyer Pallavi Sinha; Monica Tudehope, who has previously worked as Dominic Perrottet’s policy director; and former NSW Liberal MP Lou Amato”. Mundine has opted to remain in the business sector, but the Sydney Morning Herald further noted he had “caused angst” among hitherto supportive conservatives by defying the no campaign line on the desirability of a treaty or a changed date for Australia Day. The Sydney Morning Herald earlier reported the preselection was not likely to be determined until November.

• Josh Frydenberg announced last week he will not seek to win Kooyong back from teal independent Monique Ryan at the next election. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian says this has left Liberals questioning who might take over as leader if circumstances demand it after the next election, with Andrew Hastie “described by several as the party’s best hope, despite his relative inexperience”. Amelia Hamer, director of strategy at tech start-up Airwallex, has been mentioned as a likely contender for the Liberal preselection in Frydenberg’s absence, while a report in The Age put forward a number of familiar names as potential starters: “Lucas Moon, an anti-pokies campaigner at Hawthorn RSL, Melbourne councillor Roshena Campbell, former candidate Georgina Downer, Caroline Elliot, or past Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chair Karyn Sobels”.

Alexi Diemetriadi of The Australian reports Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has resigned from the Liberal state executive ahead of a run for Liberal preselection in Bennelong, and that Shoalhaven councillor and former deputy mayor Paul Ell is “understood” to be considering running in Gilmore, where he stood aside in favour of Andrew Constance before the last election.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks round-up of Queensland politics relates that long-serving Labor members Graham Perrett and Shayne Neumann are under pressure to make way for female candidates in their seats of Moreton and Blair, with former state secretary Julie-Ann Campbell favoured by the Left in Moreton and state Ipswich MP Jennifer Howard “weighing up her options for a tilt at Blair”.

• Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a new post at The Conversation on developments in the campaign for the October 14 election in New Zealand.