Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

After a respectable result in Fadden, no further cheer for the Coalition from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 55-45, out from 54-46 three weeks ago, despite a two-point drop on the primary vote to 36%. The primary votes overall suggest the two-party movement can’t have amounted to much before rounding, with the Coalition down one to 34%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Anthony Albanese is steady on 52% approval and down one on disapproval to 41%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 49%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister widens from 52-32 to 54-29. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1570.

UPDATE: Newspoll also has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support down two since three weeks ago to 41% and opposition up one to 48%, with undecided up one to 11%.

Weekend miscellany: China polling, Voice polling and the future of Morrison (open thread)

Some recent attitudinal polling on various subjects, plus the latest speculation surrounding the likely next federal by-election.

Counting in Fadden ended last night with a 2.4% swing to the Liberal National Party, which you can read all about in the dedicated post and scrutinise in detail on the results page. Other items worth noting from the past week:

Matthew Knott of the Age/Herald reports that Scott Morrison had been expected to resign as early as this month, but that “some Liberal MPs” now thought he would remain longer “to avoid the perception he was being forced out by scandal”. Paul Karp of The Guardian reports the party’s state branch had opened preselection nominations for all sitting members’ seats, but had made an exception for Cook “due to the widespread belief that Morrison would retire mid-year if he found a private sector job”.

• The University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute has published results from its annual survey on attitudes to Australia’s relationship with China, which among many other things found 49% rating Labor as the best party to handle policy on China compared with 29% for the Coalition, who in last year’s survey led by 36% to 35%. Thirty-nine per cent expressed satisfaction with Australia’s management of the relationship, up six, with 31% dissatisfied, down twelve. A question on whether Australia should “send troops” if China attacked Taiwan found 37% for and 35.5% against, narrowing from 39% to 34% last year. The survey was conducted in early April from a sample of 2000. A Lowy Institute survey recently covered similar ground.

• SECNewgate’s latest Mood of the Nation report, which focuses mostly in issue salience, has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support at 43%, down from 52% in April, and opposition at 34%, up from 26%, with 23% opting for neither, up from 21%. A forced response question on whether Australia is heading in the right direction broke 61-39 against, a sharp deterioration from 51-49 in April. Thirty-nine per cent rated the federal government’s performance as excellent, very good or good, down seven since April, compared with 60% for fair, poor or very poor. The poll was conducted June 23 to 28 from a sample of 2207.

• The regular Ipsos Issues Monitor issue salience poll, which asks respondents to name the three top issues facing Australia, found 68% including cost of living, having more than doubled since the end of 2022. Its nearest rival being housing on 39%, which began the year about ten points lower. The poll reaches 1000 respondents per month, the latest results combining polling from April, May and June.

The Australian reports C|T Group polling that finds 42% rating Anthony Albanese positively, 18% neutrally and 36% negatively; 30% rating Treasurer Jim Chalmers positively, 24% neutrally and 31% negatively; 23% rating Defence Minister Richard Marles positively, 27% neutrally and 26% negatively; and 31% rating Health Minister Mark Butler positively, 32% neutrally and 40% negatively. The polling was conducted May 29 and June 12 from a sample of 3000.

Fadden by-election live

Live coverage of the count for the Fadden federal by-election.

Click here for full display of Fadden by-election results.

Monday
Along with rechecking, a further batch of postals today broke 699-271 to the LNP.

Sunday
A second batch of postals was added today, breaking 1289-602 compared with 5601-2247 for the election night batch, or 68.2% for the LNP compared with 71.4%. Also added were 262 Special Hospital Team votes, which broke about evenly.

Saturday night
12.05am. End of counting for the evening, with the AEC having accounted for all available results on primary and two-party by the close of business. Around half of a likely final total of 16,000 or so postals have been counted, with the remainder accounting for all of a few of the votes still to come. Unless I’m missing something, that suggests a rather meagre turnout in the low seventies, compared with 85.6% in Aston. To that can be added an increase in the informal vote share from 4.4% to 6.2%, as compared with a stable 3.3% in Aston.

10.23pm. Large Helensvale pre-poll, with 11,918 formal votes, reports with par-for-the-course swings on the primary vote.

10.08pm. Labrador pre-poll has reported its TPP: 2.7% swing to LNP.

9.35pm. The Gold Coast North pre-poll booth — the one that did well for the LNP — is now in on two-party, showing a 6.3% swing to the LNP.

9.30pm. The Runaway Bay pre-poll becomes the third to report on the primary vote, and it’s a big one — 14,432 formal votes. Like Labrador (2544 formal votes) and unlike Gold Coast North (3435), the swings are more or less the same as the election day booths.

9.16pm. A second pre-poll centre, Labrador, has reported on the primary vote — whereas the Gold Coast North centre was better for the LNP than the election day vote in swing terms, this one is basically the same.

9.02pm. Bug fixed — no new results of consequence came in while I was doing it.

8.46pm. A minor bug in my results page: the projected swing is rounding to full (percentage) numbers and not the first decimal place as intended, so it flips between 2.0% and 3.0% as the projection falls below and above 2.5%. The actual projection is 2.51%.

8.45pm. The first pre-poll voting centre (Gold Coast North) is in, and the result is above-par for the LNP, their primary vote up 8.3% with Labor little changed.

8.15pm. After being solid for quite a while on 3.0%, my projection of the LNP two-party swing just fell to 2.0%.

8.10pm. David Speers on the ABC says Labor are projecting a 2.1% two-party swing, compared with my 3.0%.

7.56pm. Looking like a high informal vote rate of approaching 7%. This isn’t booth matched, but the informal vote for ordinary votes in 2022 was 4.6%. Compare and contrast Aston, where the informal vote was 3.3% at both the election and the by-election.

7.46pm. As Murray Watt points out on the ABC, the absence of the United Australia Party, who were worth 6.3% last year, needs to be taken into account in looking at primary vote swings. No doubt this explains the One Nation vote holding up, and probably hasn’t done the LNP any harm either.

7.38pm. Things seem to be settling in now: the LNP is up on the primary vote, Labor little changed, One Nation doing well to hold even amid a bigger field of candidates, Legalise Cannabis doing well to knock on the door of double figures, and a poor result for the Greens, who are probably losing vote share to Legalise Cannabis (who weren’t in the field last time). What might change all this is a different dynamic on pre-poll voting, which we won’t know about until a fair bit later in the night.

7.25pm. Good results for the LNP from Sanctuary Cove and Coombabah South push the swing out further, to what I’m projecting at 4.0% on two-party.

7.18pm. Now it’s clear everything is running smoothly, my obligatory request for donations, which you can make my clicking “Become a Supporter” in the blue band at the top of the page.

7.16pm. Four booths in now on TCP and my system is calling it for the LNP.

7.15pm. Six booths in now on the primary vote, coming in quick enough that I won’t be able to offer comment on them individually. The LNP’s good result at Pimpama East looks like an outlier amid an overall status quo result.

7.12pm. Studio Village in on TPP — 0.6% swing to LNP.

7.11pm. Greens running fifth, behind One Nation and Legalise Cannabis, both on double figures. Gold Coast not exactly a happy hunting ground for them.

7.09pm. Pimpama East booth is in, and it’s a bad result for Labor, who are down nearly 5% with the LNP up nearly 10%. My LNP win probability estimate is now out to 95%.

7.03pm. Another plug for the map display on my results page, which you can activate by clicking on the button at the bottom of the page. Numbers indicate the booth has recorded two-party preferred numbers, with the colour recording the party that won the booth (teal for LNP, red for Labor) and the number their share of TPP. Where only the primary vote is in, the dot is coloured to indicate the leading party. White dots denote no result yet. Click on whatever it is and a table will pop up showing full results.

6.59pm. Legalise Cannabis are on double figures, and One Nation are more than holding up despite more competition for the minor party vote.

6.55pm. The second booth to report on the primary vote is Studio Village at the southern end of the electorate, and like Alberton, it records little primary vote swing for either major party.

6.30pm. The TCP booth is now in from the Alberton booth (highly efficient work there) and it’s a 1.6% swing to the LNP. My projections will continue to work off estimates until the TCP count reaches 1%.

6.28pm. The booth interestingly has One Nation level with Labor, but this is a particularly weak booth for Labor.

6.24pm. Was being a bit conservative with my estimates of when results would start — there are actually some very small booths in the seat, and one, Alberton, has primary votes for us already. These show both major parties up slightly on the primary vote.

5.30pm. With half an hour to go before polls close, welcome to the Poll Bludger’s coverage of the Fadden by-election count. After polls close at 6pm, you will find through the above link live updated results, including full booth details in both tabular and map display (click on the button at the bottom of the page) and swing-based projections and probability estimates. This post will offer live commentary as the results come through, the first of which I imagine will be in a bit before 7pm.

Fadden and other by-elections

All the news that’s fit to print about tomorrow’s Fadden by-election, plus timetable details for the Warrandyte by-election in Victoria.

The Fadden by-election is upon us tomorrow, and the Poll Bludger’s results page stands ready for action, to provide live updates of results down to booth level in tabular and map form (the latter viewable by clicking the “activate” button at the bottom of the page) together with projections, probability estimates and data on preference flows.

News from the front:

• Queensland Labor Senator Murray Watt candidly stated yesterday that his party had “zero chance” of overcoming the 10.6% margin, and no word coming out of the Coalition camp has indicated otherwise.

Paul Karp of The Guardian reports that the Liberal National Party has been concerned enough about the Aston precedent to have sent a six-figure sum on digital, billboard and television advertising, whereas Labor has conducted a digital-only campaign costing about $30,000, much of it targeting outgoing member Stuart Robert over robodebt.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about low turnout for early voting, with only 16,000 votes cast as of Monday compared with 22,000 at the same stage at the 2022 election. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group told the Age/Herald that a low turnout would likely hamper Labor, as the effect would be concentrated among younger voters.

Maggie Perry of 6News has helpfully assembled a table summarising how-to-vote card recommendations, the most significant feature of which is an active recommendation by One Nation that LNP candidate Cameron Caldwell go well ahead of Labor’s Letitia Del Fabbro.

In other by-election news, the timetable for Warrandyte has been revealed, with the closure of nominations and ballot paper draw set for Thursday, August 10, early voting to open on Monday, August 14, and polling day on Saturday, August 24. The big question of whether Labor will be taking the field remains unanswered. The other by-election on the horizon, for Mark McGowan’s seat of Rockingham in Western Australia, will be held a fortnight from tomorrow.

Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 44 (open thread)

No significant movement on voting intention from the latest Essential Research poll, and a stronger yes vote on the Indigenous Voice than some other polling of late.

The reliable Essential Research has published its regular fortnightly poll, featuring federal voting intention numbers which, inclusive of a 5% undecided component (down one), have the Coalition up two points on the primary vote to draw level with an unchanged Labor on 32%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is nonetheless steady at 52% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition, presumably reflecting better preference flow for Labor than last time (UPDATE: It seems the Essential Research chart display is misfiring – for me, at least – by not extending to the latest numbers, which actually have Labor down a point to 51% and the Coalition up two to 44%), with the vagaries of rounding pushing undecided up a point to 6%. The Greens are unchanged at 14%, while One Nation is up one to 8%, the upper limit of their range through the current term.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from double its usual sample size at 2248 respondents, presumably to add extra muscle to state breakdowns from a question on the Indigenous Voice, which is framed around the wording to be used in the referendum. This records the yes vote at 47% nationally with no at 43%, with state breakdowns showing yes well in the clear in Victoria (48% to 39%) and South Australia (49% to 38%), well behind in Queensland (42% to 50%), and statistically tied in New South Wales (45% to 44% in favour of yes) and Western Australia (49% to 47% in favour of yes).

Weekend miscellany: by-elections, Voice polling, Gerard Rennick’s preselection defeat (open thread)

Victoria’s Warrandyte by-election set for August 26; more evidence the Indigenous Voice has little chance of prevailing in Queensland; and controversial incumbent Gerard Rennick dumped from the LNP’s Senate ticket.

Less than a week to go until the Fadden by-election, though I’m afraid there’s no specific news of consequence to relate concerning it. Last week I suggested that Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and a Resolve Strategic poll might be imminent, which still holds a week later. We should also be seeing proposed new state electoral boundaries for Western Australia at some point over the coming fortnight. Other than that:

• Victoria’s long-awaited Warrandyte by-election has been set for August 26. Labor sources cited by Rachel Baxendale of The Australian say the party is “highly unlikely to run”, although The Age reports Labor MPs are “privately pressuring the party to contest”, backed by “a fair bit of pressure coming from the branches”.

• The Financial Review has published further results from this week’s Queensland state poll from Freshwater Strategy showing 50% opposition to the Indigenous Voice with only 36% in support and 14% undecided, breaking out to 58-42 with the latter excluded. The results in Brisbane were 40% supportive and 47% opposed, compared with 31% and 53% in the rest of the state.

• Right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has been dumped from the Liberal National Party’s ticket for the next election after a vote at the party’s state conference, despite backing from Peter Dutton. His third position, which did not avail Amanda Stoker when she held it at last year’s election, will instead go to Stuart Fraser, who reportedly won the final round of the vote by 134 to 131. Fraser is the LNP’s treasurer and director of a private investment fund, also noted for his involvement with the Tattersalls Club and the Catholic Archdiocese of Brisbane. The Guardian reports Fraser survived the final exclusion by four votes ahead of Nelson Savanh of strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander, then narrowly prevailed as moderate support coalesced behind him. Another contestant for the position, Sophia Li, a former adviser to Shadow Defence Industry Minister Luke Howarth, takes the fourth position, while former state Hinchinbrook MP and Newman government minister Andrew Cripps is fifth.

Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of Matt Kean, senior minister in the recently ousted state government and noted factional moderate, running at the next federal election in Bradfield should Paul Fletcher choose to retire, or alternatively against teal independent Kylea Tink in North Sydney. Dominic Perrottet was said to be resisting overtures to run in North Sydney or challenge Alex Hawke for preselection in Mitchell, and was likely to quit politics. There was “no indication” Gladys Berejiklian or Mike Baird might run, despite reported urgings from senior Liberals. Berowra MP Julian Leeser might be challenged by conservatives displeased with his support for the Indigenous Voice, but was “likely to survive”. Such questions may be settled later rather than sooner after a vote for the party’s state presidency was won by former Mackellar MP Jason Falinski, who is reportedly dubious about Peter Dutton’s determination to have all candidates preselected by October.

Resolve Strategic state and age breakdowns (open thread)

Polling breakdowns suggests federal Labor remains dominant in WA, and has gained most since the election at the younger and older end of the age scale.

It seems there is little to offer this week in the way of federal polling, my suggestion in the previous post that we might see a Resolve Strategic poll and Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns probably being a week premature. We did get quarterly breakdowns, courtesy of the Age/Herald on Sunday, but from Resolve Strategic rather than Newspoll – which don’t tell us much we did not already know, as breakdowns by gender and for the three biggest states are included with the monthly results. They do, however, include fresh state results for Western Australia and South Australia and age cohort breakdowns.

Labor has been polling exceptionally well in Resolve Strategic over the period in question, which is reflected in the WA and SA results. In the former case, the primary votes are Labor 46%, Coalition 29%, Greens 12% and One Nation 3%, compared with election results of Labor 36.8%, Coalition 34.8%, Greens 12.5% and One Nation 4.0%, which was sufficient to gain Labor four seats in the state. In the latter, the primary votes from the poll are Labor 46%, Coalition 22%, Greens 14% and One Nation 6%, compared with Labor 34.5%, Coalition 35.5%, Greens 12.8% and One Nation 4.8% at the election.

The age breakdowns suggest the Coalition’s deterioration since the election has been concentrated among the young and old, with the middle-age cohort remaining relatively steady. Among those aged 18 to 34, Labor is up from 31% in the pre-election poll to 44% and the Coalition are down from 27% to 19%, with the Greens up one to 23%. Among those 55 and over, Labor is up from 33% to 42%, the Coalition is down from 46% to 37%, and the Greens are down from 5% to 4%. In between, Labor is up from 34% to 39%, the Coalition is down from 32% to 29%, and the Greens are down from 12% to 11%. The polls were conducted April 12 to 16, May 10 to 14 and June 6 to 11, with a combined national sample of 4587.

Miscellany: polls, preselections and the Coalition’s Gen Z problem

New research argues the Coalition will need to do something dramatic to win favour among emerging generations if it ever wants to govern again.

We’re probably due a Resolve Strategic poll in the coming week, and Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates with state-level results and other breakdowns will likely be upon us shortly. For now, there’s the following poll-wise:

• A JWS Research poll finds 46% intending to vote yes in the Indigenous Voice referendum against 43% for no, with 11% uncommitted. Even allowing for small samples, the state breakdowns have unintuitive results, showing clear leads for yes in Western Australia and no in New South Wales, and statistical ties in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. The poll was conducted from June 2 to 6 from a sample of 1122. This comes attached to the pollster’s quarterly True Issues survey on issue salience, which as you might expect finds housing and interest rates continuing to track upwards while hospitals, health care and ageing continues to decline from its pandemic-era highs. Thirty-seven per cent rate the government’s performance as very good or good compared with 23% for poor or very poor, both results unchanged on last time.

• The weekly federal voting intention numbers from Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 57-43, which is presumably influenced by a change in preference flows, because the primary votes have Labor up one to 37.5%, the Coalition down two to 32% and the Greens steady on 13%.

Other news:

• A paper by Matthew Taylor for conservative think tank the Centre for Independent Studies reached the headline-grabbing conclusion that the Coalition stands to lose the next six federal elections if present generational trends continue to play out uninterrupted. While the paper finds evidence that Generation X (born 1965 to 1980) is following the previously established trend towards conservatism as it ages, its analysis of Australian Election Study survey data paints a distinctly unpromising picture for the Coalition among Millennials (born 1981 to 1995) and especially Generation Z (after 1995). The former started from a lower base of Coalition support than previous generations and is showing only tentative movement to conservatism with the onset of middle age (more discernible is movement from the Greens to Labor). The starting point for Gen Z was lower still and has, from an admittedly shallow pool of data, since collapsed altogether, to the extent that Coalition support is now 25% lower than for the population as a whole — although the movement has been to the none-of-the-above category rather than Labor.

Matthew Killoran of the Courier-Mail reports that right-wing Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick faces four preselection challengers for his third position on the Senate ticket at the Liberal National Party’s state conference next weekend. In addition to those already reported — Nelson Savanh of strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and private investment fund director Stuart Fraser — are Mitchell Dickens, a former staffer to Rennick and party operative based on the Sunshine Coast, and Sophia Li, a former political adviser who has made a few guest appearances on Amanda Stoker’s program on Sky News. Incumbent Paul Scarr is also under challenge for his top position from Li and Fiona Ward, who was recently overlooked for the Fadden by-election, but is not reckoned to be in any trouble.

• Following earlier reports of a challenge from Mary Aldred, the Sentinel Times reports South Gippsland mayor Nathan Hersey will also run for preselection against Russell Broadbent, the 72-year-old Liberal member for the Victorian seat of Monash.