The Courier-Mail will have a Queensland state poll through at 10am local time, presumably from YouGov, which the paper has been promoting with its trademark subtlety. Alongside the usual bilge about how the results will rock the state to its foundations, we are informed the poll includes questions on how respondents might vote if Labor changed leaders.
In what’s likely to be a fallow period for federal polling post-referendum, Roy Morgan turned a few heads with its weekly voting intention result, which is the first poll this term to credit the Coalition with a two-party lead, by a bare 50.5-49.5 margin, after Labor led 54-46 a week previously. However, the result is in large part down to an anomalous flow of respondent-allocated preferences: the primary votes of Labor 32% (down three), Coalition 36% (up two), Greens 14% (steady) and One Nation 4.5% are all in the ballpark of the 2022 election result, and in fact convert to 53-47 in Labor’s favour if preference flows from the election are applied. The poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, from last Monday through to Sunday, from a sample of 1383.
JWS Research has released its monthly True Issues survey of issue salience, which finds 56% nominating the cost of living when asked unprompted to identify their three most important issues, shooting up from 43% in June. Housing and interest rates, health and aged care and environment and climate change are little changed in second through to fourth place, with health levelling off after a long post-pandemic slide. An index measure of the federal government’s performance is down to 48, after the four previous readings since the 2022 election came in at 52 or 53. The survey was conducted
With most of the votes from the referendum now in, here’s a ranked listing of how the pollsters performed: