YouGov: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

The Courier-Mail reports a YouGov poll of state voting intention Queensland, its first such in six months, has the Liberal National Party opposition leading Labor 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 in the previous poll. The LNP is up two points on the primary vote to 41%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 13% and One Nation down two to 8%. Annastacia Palaszczuk records poor personal ratings, her approval down eight to 32% and disapproval up eleven to 52%, while Opposition Leader David Crisafulli is up to six to 37% and down one to 26%. Crisafulli has opened up a 37-35 lead as preferred premier, reversing Palaszczuk’s 31-29 lead last time, with a notable reduction in uncommitted.

Also featured are a series of questions gauging more specific reactions to Palaszczuk, and while 44% rate that she has been a good Premier compared with 37% who disagree, the other results break strongly against her: on negative questions, 55-26 for out of touch, 54-23 for out of ideas, 49-29 to the much-promoted line that she “prefers red carpet events to working hard for Queenslanders”; on positive ones, 34-46 for working hard to tackle key issues and 34-35 for Labor’s best chance to win the next election. The poll was conducted a little while back, from October 4 to 10, with a sample of 1013.

UPDATE (27/10): The Courier-Mail today has further results from the poll, including a finding that 15% say they would be more likely to vote Labor if Annastacia Palaszczuk were replaced, 10% less likely and 61% no difference. A question on who respondents felt would make Labor’s best replacement for Palaszczuk did not prove too productive, with Steven Miles on 10%, Shannon Fentiman and Cameron Dick each on 8%, “someone else” on 22% and uncommitted at 52%. Among Labor voters, Miles scored 17%, Dick 14% and Fentiman 10%.

There has been a mounting accumulation of news concerning an election now under a way since the previous post on a Queensland poll in August, all but a bit of which involves Liberal National Party preselection:

• Former Senator Amanda Stoker was confirmed as the LNP candidate for Oodgeroo, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Mark Robinson, at a preselection vote held on October 8. Stoker won 65 votes to 48 for Daniel Hobbs, ordained Anglican priest and former staffer to Barnaby Joyce, having won the endorsement of Peter Dutton, Tony Abbott, John Howard and Jacinta Price. Former federal Bowman MP Andrew Laming withdrew from the race three weeks out, which The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column says happened after David Crisafulli made known his opposition.

• Kendall Morton, former director of Home Care Assistance Sunshine Coast, was confirmed on October 8 for the Sunshine Coast seat of Caloundra, an historically conservative seat Labor did well to win in 2020. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported in January that David Crisafulli favoured Morton over a rival contender, local car salesman Alister Eiseman, but was treading carefully to avoid a member backlash against efforts to recruit more female candidates.

• The northern Brisbane seat of Ferny Grove, where Labor member Mark Furner’s margin blew out from 4.6% to 11.0% in 2020, will be contested for the LNP by Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and ran unsuccessfully for the Senate preselection at which Stuart Fraser defeated incumbent Gerard Rennick. Reports have since noted that Savanh approved a video denigrating Aboriginal culture in his time as Young LNP president in 2020, which he now says was because he did not review it properly. Despite his cabinet status, there have been suggestions Furner might be required to make way for a woman – potentially Ali France, who has twice run against Peter Dutton in Dickson. However, France told the Courier-Mail’s George Street Beat column last week she remained set on winning Dickson.

• Kerri-Anne Dooley will make a fifth attempt to win Redcliffe, held by cabinet minister Yvette D’Ath on a margin of on a margin of 6.1%, her first having been at the 2014 by-election that brought D’Ath to the seat.

• Recently announced candidates in Labor-held regional seats: Bree Watson, chief executive of Bundaberg Fruit and Vegetable Growers, in Bundaberg, which Tom Smith won in 2020 by nine votes; Bree James, publisher of parenting magazine PakMag, in Barron River, held by Craig Crawford on a margin of 3.1%; police officer Janelle Poole in Thuringowa, held by Aaron Harper on 3.2%; and Nigel Hutton, a school teacher who is relinquishing his position as Livingstone Shire deputy mayor to run, in Keppel, held by Brittany Lauga on a 5.6% margin.

• Two LNP members have recently announced they will not seek another term: Michael Hart in Burleigh, who survived a 3.6% swing to Labor candidate and former professional surfer Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholemew by a margin of 1.2% in 2020, and Lachlan Millar in Gregory, a safe conservative seat encompassing a large part of the state’s interior. No indication so far as to who might succeed Millar, but the Gold Coast Bulletin reported Gold Coast councillor Hermann Vorster would seek preselection in Burleigh.

• Brisbane LNP councillor Fiona Hammond announced last month she would quit her Marchant ward seat to seek preselection in Stafford, held for Labor by Jimmy Sullivan on a margin of 11.9%.

Other news:

• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Crisafulli is refusing to rule out again directing preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor, having been called on not to do so by Christian Right faction powerbroker David Goodwin. The Greens are reportedly confident of adding Greenslopes to their existing haul of Maiwar and South Brisbane, and “say McConnel and Cooper on the northside are promising”.

• Cabinet minister Stirling Hinchliffe announced on October 12 that he would not recontest his seat of Sandgate in Brisbane’s north. He is expected to be succeeded as Labor candidate by Bisma Asif, former Young Labor president and current policy adviser for federal Aged Care Minister Anika Wells.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports on jockeying to replace the retiring Jim Madden in Ipswich West, with the Right backing Wendy Bourne, a staffer to Annastacia Palaszcuk, and the Left favouring Neisha Traill of the Electrical Trades Union. For what it’s worth, former federal Liberal MP Cameron Thompson writes in Ipswich News Today that United Voice powerbroker Gary Bullock’s weight in the union delegate vote will overwhelm Right dominance of local branches and deliver the position to Traill.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe