YouGov: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

Another poll finds the tide ebbing out on the Palaszczuk government, plus a panoply of news relevant to a state election now exactly a year away.

The Courier-Mail reports a YouGov poll of state voting intention Queensland, its first such in six months, has the Liberal National Party opposition leading Labor 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 in the previous poll. The LNP is up two points on the primary vote to 41%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 13% and One Nation down two to 8%. Annastacia Palaszczuk records poor personal ratings, her approval down eight to 32% and disapproval up eleven to 52%, while Opposition Leader David Crisafulli is up to six to 37% and down one to 26%. Crisafulli has opened up a 37-35 lead as preferred premier, reversing Palaszczuk’s 31-29 lead last time, with a notable reduction in uncommitted.

Also featured are a series of questions gauging more specific reactions to Palaszczuk, and while 44% rate that she has been a good Premier compared with 37% who disagree, the other results break strongly against her: on negative questions, 55-26 for out of touch, 54-23 for out of ideas, 49-29 to the much-promoted line that she “prefers red carpet events to working hard for Queenslanders”; on positive ones, 34-46 for working hard to tackle key issues and 34-35 for Labor’s best chance to win the next election. The poll was conducted a little while back, from October 4 to 10, with a sample of 1013.

UPDATE (27/10): The Courier-Mail today has further results from the poll, including a finding that 15% say they would be more likely to vote Labor if Annastacia Palaszczuk were replaced, 10% less likely and 61% no difference. A question on who respondents felt would make Labor’s best replacement for Palaszczuk did not prove too productive, with Steven Miles on 10%, Shannon Fentiman and Cameron Dick each on 8%, “someone else” on 22% and uncommitted at 52%. Among Labor voters, Miles scored 17%, Dick 14% and Fentiman 10%.

There has been a mounting accumulation of news concerning an election now under a way since the previous post on a Queensland poll in August, all but a bit of which involves Liberal National Party preselection:

• Former Senator Amanda Stoker was confirmed as the LNP candidate for Oodgeroo, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Mark Robinson, at a preselection vote held on October 8. Stoker won 65 votes to 48 for Daniel Hobbs, ordained Anglican priest and former staffer to Barnaby Joyce, having won the endorsement of Peter Dutton, Tony Abbott, John Howard and Jacinta Price. Former federal Bowman MP Andrew Laming withdrew from the race three weeks out, which The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column says happened after David Crisafulli made known his opposition.

• Kendall Morton, former director of Home Care Assistance Sunshine Coast, was confirmed on October 8 for the Sunshine Coast seat of Caloundra, an historically conservative seat Labor did well to win in 2020. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported in January that David Crisafulli favoured Morton over a rival contender, local car salesman Alister Eiseman, but was treading carefully to avoid a member backlash against efforts to recruit more female candidates.

• The northern Brisbane seat of Ferny Grove, where Labor member Mark Furner’s margin blew out from 4.6% to 11.0% in 2020, will be contested for the LNP by Nelson Savanh, who works with strategic communications firm Michelson Alexander and ran unsuccessfully for the Senate preselection at which Stuart Fraser defeated incumbent Gerard Rennick. Reports have since noted that Savanh approved a video denigrating Aboriginal culture in his time as Young LNP president in 2020, which he now says was because he did not review it properly. Despite his cabinet status, there have been suggestions Furner might be required to make way for a woman – potentially Ali France, who has twice run against Peter Dutton in Dickson. However, France told the Courier-Mail’s George Street Beat column last week she remained set on winning Dickson.

• Kerri-Anne Dooley will make a fifth attempt to win Redcliffe, held by cabinet minister Yvette D’Ath on a margin of on a margin of 6.1%, her first having been at the 2014 by-election that brought D’Ath to the seat.

• Recently announced candidates in Labor-held regional seats: Bree Watson, chief executive of Bundaberg Fruit and Vegetable Growers, in Bundaberg, which Tom Smith won in 2020 by nine votes; Bree James, publisher of parenting magazine PakMag, in Barron River, held by Craig Crawford on a margin of 3.1%; police officer Janelle Poole in Thuringowa, held by Aaron Harper on 3.2%; and Nigel Hutton, a school teacher who is relinquishing his position as Livingstone Shire deputy mayor to run, in Keppel, held by Brittany Lauga on a 5.6% margin.

• Two LNP members have recently announced they will not seek another term: Michael Hart in Burleigh, who survived a 3.6% swing to Labor candidate and former professional surfer Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholemew by a margin of 1.2% in 2020, and Lachlan Millar in Gregory, a safe conservative seat encompassing a large part of the state’s interior. No indication so far as to who might succeed Millar, but the Gold Coast Bulletin reported Gold Coast councillor Hermann Vorster would seek preselection in Burleigh.

• Brisbane LNP councillor Fiona Hammond announced last month she would quit her Marchant ward seat to seek preselection in Stafford, held for Labor by Jimmy Sullivan on a margin of 11.9%.

Other news:

Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Crisafulli is refusing to rule out again directing preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor, having been called on not to do so by Christian Right faction powerbroker David Goodwin. The Greens are reportedly confident of adding Greenslopes to their existing haul of Maiwar and South Brisbane, and “say McConnel and Cooper on the northside are promising”.

• Cabinet minister Stirling Hinchliffe announced on October 12 that he would not recontest his seat of Sandgate in Brisbane’s north. He is expected to be succeeded as Labor candidate by Bisma Asif, former Young Labor president and current policy adviser for federal Aged Care Minister Anika Wells.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports on jockeying to replace the retiring Jim Madden in Ipswich West, with the Right backing Wendy Bourne, a staffer to Annastacia Palaszcuk, and the Left favouring Neisha Traill of the Electrical Trades Union. For what it’s worth, former federal Liberal MP Cameron Thompson writes in Ipswich News Today that United Voice powerbroker Gary Bullock’s weight in the union delegate vote will overwhelm Right dominance of local branches and deliver the position to Traill.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

55 comments on “YouGov: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland”

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  1. The LNP are complete nuts to choose Dooley again for Redcliffe. How many more times do they need to lose the marginal seat to learn people don’t want Dooley and can sense desperation at this point?

  2. The sources being quoted are noted as is the content being focused on the LNP

    Why the politically biased Murdoch media is given such prominence would appear to be a legitimate question

  3. One thing I’ve noticed that makes the Queensland electorate so unique is how much they hate the idea of privatizations of their state-owned assets. That was something that not even Joh Bjelke-Petersen touched in his reign.

    The Newman government with an utterly overwhelming majority approached the 2015 election by saying “Yeah, maybe we’ll privatize some things if we’re re-elected” and they had that majority swept out after one term.

    David Crisafulli’s LNP might be in the lead now, but questions of possible privatizations can still sink his campaign.

  4. One thing that bodes poorly for the LNP is the lack of real issues they have going for them. Crime is an issue but not a front line one. This was proven when the Melbourne Sudenese stuff didn’t turn out a winner for the libs down is always hard to shift an encumbent government and when unemployment low, no debt, economy going well things may well just swing back Labor’s way.

  5. imagine looking at the wreckage left by Liberals in the Federal & NSW Governments and thinking “yeah, more of that please daddy murdoch, we want to go back to the Newman party”.

  6. The LNP lifted its primary 2pts to 41 but it came off one nation so the 2PP did not change much. I was expecting Labor’s primary of 33 to drop a point or two and go to the LNP and push the 2PP to 54-46 but it held at 33 which indicates Labor are not finished yet even with all the crap going on. The LNP should take seats in the regions (4% swing gives them 9 and 6% swing government) but any in Brisbane not sure yet and need 13 so this is still up for grabs.

  7. Premier’s personal ratings are terrible. Don’t know what’s going on there. 2pp is holding up better than I would have expected given the personal ratings are in toilet.

  8. This is not the train wreck that the LNP aligned Courier had us anticipating. I would have expected a 54 – 46 result. Even that could be turned around considering things are actually pretty good in Qld. – best economy, record breaking surplus, subsidies for power bills helping the cost of living. I’m wondering if Mr Crisifulli is getting much traction all things considered. My plan for the LNP would be to install proven winner Schrinner the Lord Mayor of Brisbane. This worked once before could it work again?Still time for the plan to be bedded in and certainly worth considering.

  9. Don’t think the LNP will be making Brisbane Lord Mayors state leader anytime soon. They are only just starting to recover from the last time they tried that.
    Law and order will be a key issue.

  10. Why are we still quoting anything in the Murdoch rags as reliable in terms of elections?

    November 22 was going to be hung parliament in Victoria and yet Dan increased his overwhelming majority.

    I would expect QLD Labor to lose the state election next year, but I won’t take Rupert’s word for it.

  11. Fair go, MABWM. Today’s Queensland poll results “will rock the state to its foundations”, doncha know.

    According to the Courier-Mail, at least …

  12. @MABWM

    Oh, but do they love to crow about it so much when they turn out to be right.

    I imagine there might have been noise complaints from neighbors around Andrew Bolt’s, Peta Credlin’s, Rowan Dean’s and Rita Pinahi’s houses when the Voice referendum was defeated.

    Which reminds me of a little tidbit law that roosters are illegal to own as pets in built-up areas in Victoria.

  13. davidwh: just because the previous Lord Mayor turned out to be a bit of a madcap doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good idea. Deb Freckleton was this far ahead 3 months out from last election and faded badly, end result increased majority to AP. The LNP needs to make inroads in Brisbane and It hasn’t been able to do that with LNP leaders from elsewhere. Mayor Schrinner is a proven winner with the Brissy voters. I’m not an LNP voter but would like any future LNP Premier to be a bit more moderate and Schrinner might be the ticket for moderate Brisbane people?

  14. Channel Nine and the Courier-Mail have been laying the foundations for a law and order election. The constant drum beat of youth crime out of control is having an impact.

  15. “Mayor Schrinner is a proven winner with the Brissy voters. I’m not an LNP voter but would like any future LNP Premier to be a bit more moderate and Schrinner might be the ticket for moderate Brisbane people?”


    Problem is where would he stand?There would likely be LNP Brisbane city councillors who wouldn’t mind taking the next step up into state politics. The problem for them is Brisbane has been a basketcase for the state LNP.

    This point is reinforced with Amanda Cooper giving up her council career in her failed attempt to win the state seat of Aspley at the last state election.

    One of Campbell Newman’s many failures as Premier was his failure to consolidate the LNP’S support in Brisbane after he’s massive victory in 2012.

  16. Princeplanet you can lock in Crisifulli for the election. He is actually leading Anna now. Only an imbecile would change leaders now. As for Anna, she is not locked in for the election yet, but the reason she stays for the moment is there is no current clear alternative.
    As for the previous election, there was a thing called covid which made especially older voters less inclined to vote for the LNP.

  17. The Brissy Courier Mail is indeed a useless rag headed by a semi-woke Editor. It’s hell bent on helping to end Labor rule in the Qld after 9 years of regular misfiring by Queen Anna & her merry mob of fools.
    The Opposition led by D. Crisafulli, could well fall over the line, but they’re a silly rabble, determined to steamroll Anna’s mob if you give them half a chance, but their powder always seem to be damp, as they end up firing blanks most of the time. The latest YouGov poll flatters them, I’m afraid.
    With the influx of southerners flooding the state, one wonders whether they’re Green tragics or just plain Dan damaged, ex Labor voters looking to take revenge somewhere else….time will tell I guess.

  18. Good for you Michael!!! But I’ve seen this all before The mighty Borg was supposedly unstoppable, Sweeney ,then the Borg once more, the JPL ,Deb and Tim Nichols , all of them a sure thing according to our mates in the Courier. Now we have Mr Crisifulli from the glamour strip who will win – no risk. The only one who delivered was Brisbane Lord Mayor Cando Newman. Ok he ended up in ignominious defeat but that was his doing for being too extreme. I think Mr Schrinner could be the ticket if Mr Crisifulli follows the pattern of previous leaders, flying high right now only to do an Icarus come election day.

  19. “As for the previous election, there was a thing called covid which made especially older voters less inclined to vote for the LNP.”


    But Michael what you omitted is the LNP brought some of it on themselves. When Labor announced a state border closure the LNP went into auto-pilot mode and slammed Labor for it. When they realised the public sentiment was with Labor they eventually backtrack with the ‘me too’ argument. But by then the damage had been done and the public was more likely stick with a incumbent who’s postion was consistent. Then an opposition giving mixed messeging.

    LNP then executive trying to roll their leader Deb Frecklington by leaking poor polling numbers also played a role in their defeat. There clearly was division.

  20. davidwh@ 8.30pm,
    “Law and order will be a key issue.”

    Fear and Loathing will be the key issues.

    Fear worked everywhere during the referendum, particularly in Qld.

    Loathing has been the “one media” state’s weapon of choice for some time. It didn’t work last time but it won’t stop the “rag” from using “that woman” and ” the black” themes again.

    The blood runs thickly and brightly for many in the sunny state for.

    The LNP feels “trapped” across the nation, with the “news media” providing a rare “taste” of the necessary staple of “fear and loathing”.

  21. Anastasia and Labor have a need for jobs, particularly mining jobs to “hold up” together with a hope that house prices remain strong.
    The other question unanswered is the desire (or lack of) by Anastasia to go around again.

  22. Hello Oliver : as I mentioned, I’m not an LNP voter but I am a Democrat. I understand that the LNP is the other side of the coin. I know Mr Schrinner would never be 100% my cup of tea but at least he presents as relatively moderate. Mr Crisifulli was a self styled acolyte of Cando Newman . He was a representative of “Far Q” ( Townsville) but Townsville gave him the heave ho so he decamped as far as he could go to the “Goldie” which is solid right wing territory. I think Brisbane voters are suspicious of the GC ( it is like another planet) and may never warm to Mr Crisifulli. Without the Brisbane seats the LNPs tenure will be shakey. I am offering them an option for a way forward but I’m not really that worried whether they take it or not. My feeling is that for all of the Courier ( Murdochracy) hoo haa the LNP are not really doing all that well and Mr Crisifulli is not cutting through in the places that matter. The ALP has won three on the trot with the results becoming better each time. I feel they will likely do it again because Qlders don’t like change.

  23. Pol Nightwatchman, everything you say is correct. The LNP don’t want covid because they handle it shit. The crap with Deb F being undermined was a disgrace but the key issue was covid which hurt in many seats.

  24. Princeplanet, David is fine. QLD is not the ACT or even Victoria. The LNP’s record since Joh is a disgrace. Newman should have walked before 2015 election, moderate installed and at least 2 terms not one.
    My feeling is the LNP should win fairly easily. The whole climate thing is biting in the regions, I think there will be big swings there and David could win it all without Brisbane if the swing is on regionally.

  25. michael: “The crap with Deb F being undermined was a disgrace …”

    The crap with Deb F, on her ascension to the LNP leadership, pining for the politics of the Joh era was certainly a disgrace.

    Ditto her demonisation of Palaszczuk for being childless.

  26. Not so sure Michael: I’ve seen your confidence exhibited and subsequently thwarted many times before by other LNP supporters. The fact is that Deb F. was ahead 52-48 with only a few months to gountil the last election and the ALP ran her down again. David is not a very inspiring figure and let’s not forget he originally came from far NQ but came unstuck up there. I know he may well win but I’d still back Palaszczuk to come home strong. The ALP is lot smarter organisation than the LNP supporters give it credit for. I’m just conjecturing a scenario in which Mr Crisifulli runs out of steam and the LNP is once again dejected. I believe Schrinner might get you guys a win. Let’s not forget that since 1989 the Nats and Libs have only managed 5 years at the helm. I also think the LNP brand does not work at state level and maybe the libs should break away from their country party cousins.

  27. “as I mentioned, I’m not an LNP voter but I am a Democrat. I understand that the LNP is the other side of the coin. I know Mr Schrinner would never be 100% my cup of tea but at least he presents as relatively moderate.”


    Graham Quirk was also a very Brisbane popular Lord mayor, but there was never ever any speculation about a state political career for him. Probably due to fact there wasn’t many winnable/safe seats in Brisbane for him to stand in. Which goes back to my point that cupboard is bare for those looking in the LNP looking for a state political career in Brisbane.

  28. Hello PN: your comment underlines the LNP difficulties in Brisbane. I just don’t think the poll results were all that amazing for the LNP all things considered. To really get a safe margin and bed themselves in for at least two terms they need Brisbane seats . They did this under Cando Newman. unless some sort of crisis ( real not Courier /LNP concocted) assails the government I can’t see Mr Crisifulli getting much more than a small majority or being in minority at very best. I can see the status quo being the most likely scenario.

  29. Probably the only long term safe LNP seat in Brisbane is Moggill, which was one of only 3 seats retained by them in 2001, the others being Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast and Robina on the Gold Coast.

    Although in current times, Oodgeroo has a slightly higher margin, but this is only a recent change in its politics. It’s based on the old district of Cleveland, which was mostly fairly strong for Labor until large swings to the Liberals in 2004 and 2006.

  30. Kirsdarke:Probably due to the Raby bay development where there seems to be some serious wealth if the size of the boats is anything to go by.

  31. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Moggil comes under threat from the Greens in future. IIRC, it shares quite a bit of territory with the south-western sections of Ryan, which used to be solid Liberal but swung hard to the Greens in 2022.

  32. I suspect that anyone spruiking Adrian Schriner as the next LNP leader has never actually met the man or seen any footage of him speaking. He’s a complete non-entity.

  33. The LNP does not need to win any seats in Brisbane (that it does not already hold) to win Government.

    A uniform swing of 4% would see nine seats change hand ALP to LNP and they would then be tied on 43 seats each. Cross bench composition and three term ALP government suggests LNP would then be the more likely party to form Government.

    A swing of 6% would see an additional four seats, for a total of 13 .

    Of those 13, none are in the Brisbane City Council area, only one in the ‘Greater Brisbane’ area, and only three in South East Queensland.

    And it is not just the Courier Mail pushing the crime issue, it is the lead issue on every commercial channel’s 6 PM news bulletin, most evenings.

  34. Given the divisions across the LNP Australia wide, including in Tasmania where they govern as a minority government (replicating SA where numerous finished on the cross benches hence yet another one term government), are those divisions in evidence in Queensland?

    If they are not I would be very surprised

    It is the Liberal Party, LNP, LCP DNA

    What is the influence of the Pentecostals, who now dominate elsewhere?

    And in regard polling and numbers, what is the MOE?

    Plus, as I understand, the election is still a way off

    That said, taking the LNP numbers out of the Federal Parliament leaves the Tories with a football side only, so Queensland is where their support base is and very significantly so

  35. Yeah, well, if the LNP starts to openly scoff about Brisbane seats then that could make Chatsworth (1.3%), Clayfield (1.6%) and Everton (2.2%) start to look a bit wobbly.

    Yes, that’s only 3 seats, but a time may come where Brisbane combines with the Gold and Sunshine coasts and the politics intertwine, and a lot of the LNP’s most vulnerable seats are also there (Currumbin, Coomera, Burleigh, Glass House, Theodore, Ninderry, Mermaid Beach being marginal seats below 5%. That’s another 7 seats.)

  36. Hello Fargo61 : I don’t watch commercial television or read the courier (too protective of my diminishing brain cells) so I will take your word for it. The thing is that it’s easy to highlight and exploit an issue but as the Victorian election where Sudanese gangs were the focus showed, when push came to shove it didn’t have much impact, in fact Andrews won in a landslide. We also don’t really know what the LNP will do differently , maybe a few reviews and plenty of hot air about tough on crime and of course the courier will go quiet on the issue. As far as a 4 percent swing goes I think if that doesn’t happen in the right places they may fall short. The last time they won in 2012 they were way further ahead in the polls that 4 points consistently for the whole term.

  37. Here we go again: “… are those divisions in evidence in Queensland?”

    Ironically, Queensland is the only place where there is no division (in a legal sense) between the Liberal and National parties: on paper, they’re a unitary party, the LNP.

    A shotgun marriage, forced by a long succession of lost elections, that worked … just once …

  38. Here we go again: “What is the influence of the Pentecostals, who now dominate elsewhere?”

    Historically, in Queensland the National party has been the dominant Coalition partner, with the Liberals very much the juniors. (In the merged LNP, it’s not immediately clear if that imbalance persists.)

    The Nationals, being pragmatic agrarian socialists, seem less beholden to happy-clappy machinations that do the Liberals.

    Former deputy LNP leader Tim Mander (a descendant of that infamous Queenslander Gerry Mander?) came to politics from the Scripture Union. Not sure if that’s typical.

  39. I don’t live in QLD so maybe I am missing the point, but could Michael please explain what he means by:

    “The whole climate thing is biting in the regions”, with respect to that being good for the LNP.

    Do they have aggressive policies for climate change action in the Qld LNP??

  40. “bobsays:
    Thursday, October 26, 2023 at 6:17 pm
    imagine looking at the wreckage left by Liberals in the Federal & NSW Governments and thinking “yeah, more of that please daddy murdoch, we want to go back to the Newman party”.”

    Or imagine looking at the wreckage left behind by Lab in the past Rudd/Gillard governments and the current mess in Victoria and saying “we’d like some of that in Tasmania”.

    Yes I know, total dreamland, totally irrelevant and completely partisan. In other words, my post is exactly the same as yours: a complete waste of other readers’ time and contributes nothing.

  41. “Oliver Suttonsays:
    Friday, October 27, 2023 at 7:18 am
    Princeplanet: “Schrinner might be the ticket for moderate Brisbane people?”

    That’s the Schrinner who branded climate protesters ‘extremists’?”

    Well, a lot of them are – like a lot of topics that have the support of a broad church, of course, although I’d suggest climate protesters have done more extreme things than a lot of groups fighting different causes, implying a larger number of ‘extremists’ than exist in other ‘realms’.

  42. Princeplanet

    I’m sure Deb Frecklington was never ahead on the preferred Premier stakes though, was she?

    It is important to look at these as well as the party polling numbers.

    And based on the current numbers for both in Qld as reported in this article, it’s not that far off a dead heat for both and could go either way at the next election. Crisafulli is in a better position than some of his predecessors but clearly has more work to do given Palaszczuk’s poor numbers. If Lab do change leader, any marginal lead LNP and Crisafulli have could flip very quickly.

  43. Perhaps Labor wants to lose 2024 so that they can win in 2028 and campaign on “Told you so” I’m referring to the fact the LNP might go Campbell Newman again and not slow and pragmatic like the NSW Liberals did from 2011-2023.

    Labor would take a loss in 2024 anyday if it means the LNP don’t change and it means they are in government for a couple of more terms and especially in time for the olympics. Either way, Jarod Bljeljie is almost certainly going to replace Crisafulli either in 2024 or 2028.

  44. BTSays: “imagine looking at the wreckage left behind by Lab in the past Rudd/Gillard governments”

    The ‘wreckage’ of net debt of $175 billion when Labor left office in 2013, that was doubled within 5 years under Abbott and Morrison?

    The ‘wreckage’ of a tax take of 20.8% of GDP, compared to 25.4% under Howard and 22.3% under the A-T-M circus?

    The ‘wreckage’ of actually reducing carbon emissions, before the Mad Monk smashed the mechanisms that achieved that downturn?

    That ‘wreckage’?

    Bob’s post is “exactly the same as yours” … except that it’s grounded in reality, while yours relies on fabrication.

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