The fortnightly Essential Research result brings a return of federal voting intention numbers from the pollster, which were not provided for the poll that coincided with the referendum weekend. Research director Gavin White relates they have added education to a weighting frame that had encompassed age, gender, location and past vote following the referendum, the margin of which they underestimated. This should be kept in mind when comparing the voting intention results from the last set four weeks ago.
The most striking feature of the new numbers is a four point drop for the Greens, whom the pollster had long had hovering around 14% as compared with a 2022 election result of 12.3%. Now they are at 10%, with Labor down a point to 32%, the Coalition up two to 34%, One Nation up one to 7%, the United Australia Party up one to the top end of its long-term range of 1% to 3%, and uncommitted up one to 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 48% and the Coalition up one to 46%, the remainder being uncommitted, which surpasses the mid-September result of 49% to 45% as the narrowest of the term. The gender breakdowns bear examination – where the pollster had hitherto reflected the usual pattern in having Labor doing better among women than men, this time it’s quite markedly the other way round.
Most of the other questions relate to electricity and the environment, including a semi-regular question on whether the government is doing enough to address climate change maintains a consistent pattern since Labor came to power, at which point a large gap between not doing enough and doing enough almost disappeared. Here the former is down one since April to 38% and the latter is up three to 36%, with doing too much up a point to 17%. Thirty-one per cent think it likely Australia will reach its target of net zero emissions by 2050, with 57% thinking it unlikely. A question on nuclear energy finds 50% supportive of developing nuclear plants for electricity with 33% opposed, all but unchanged when the same question was asked two years ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1149.
Also out are the weekly Roy Morgan numbers, which do not repeat last week’s unusual preference flow to the Coalition and resulting 50.5-49.5 lead for them on two-party preferred. This time Labor leads 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 32.5% (up half), Coalition 35% (down one) and Greens 15% (up one). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1375.
Because of the change in methodology and the likely related change in results, Essential Research going forward will be treated as a new series for bias adjustment purposes in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate — meaning in won’t be included at all until there are enough results to get a handle on its peculiarities relative to the other pollsters. The results can nonetheless be found on the poll data page, together with Roy Morgan results which likewise aren’t used to calculate the poll trend.
Preferred PM: Albanese 46 (-5) Dutton 36 (+5)
Albanese: Approve 42 (-4) Disapprove 52 (+6)
Dutton: Approve 37 (+2) Disapprove 50 (-3)
Asha @ #1148 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 9:09 pm
I’ll pay that!
I can just imagine the purple prose from Simon Benson in The Australian.
@Wat: “If we’re diving into the counterfactuals, let’s not pussyfoot around. Who wins between Nelson and Crean? Give the people the contest they want.”
When is this hypothetical meant to take place? If it’s a world where Crean remained leader, beat Howard and became PM, then Crean but it just seems so unlikely to have ever happened. Is it a world where Howard has a heart attack, Peter Costello still declines to seek the top job, and Nelson somehow becomes PM while Crean is still opposition leader?
meher baba @ #1150 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 9:39 pm
I agree. Disappointment from those who thought the PM should have landed the referendum, and disappointment from those who think he shouldn’t have wasted his time on it and concentrated on the Cost of Living issue.
52-48!!!!!!
Albo has entered the kill zone!
Lars:
52-48 is the TPP that Labor polled in 2022. An election they won.
Lars Von Trier @ #1156 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 9:44 pm
I thought this Newspoll would bring out the cockroaches who’ve been hiding in the dark. 😐
Albo on -10 popularity.
What can any foreign politician achieve by visiting Israel at present, other than complicating their internal security task during a war?
Unless the politician is a mediator from a neutral country respected by both sides it serves no purpose. Australia would be seen as too close to Israel for our politicians to make any difference.
Ashasays:
Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 9:45 pm
Lars:
52-48 is the TPP that Labor polled in 2022. An election they won.
_____________________
Good luck pushing that narrative.
Its not a terrible Newspoll b ut not a great one for Albo.
The China trip should help improve the next one. Apart from any beneficial results, it is a reminder that the Albanese government has spent half its time repairing damage from the Morrison gang’s period of Kirribilli occupancy.
52-48 – Tis but a flesh wound.
William Bowe @ #1109 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 8:16 pm
But he did slavishly follow Trump and his Evangelical delusions in stating that the Australian Embassy be moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Do I get a Participation Certificate? 😉
The Age @theage
Voters have given Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a powerful vote of confidence almost four months after the federal election by backing him against Opposition Leader Peter Dutton by 53 to 19 per cent when asked to name their preferred prime minister.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 10:29 am
Cronus
You might consider adding mechanical diggers.
————-
BW
I wasn’t sure exactly which post you were referring to but in any case I certainly agree. The humble mechanical digger has been a success for both sides.
Oh look, L’arse Von Botfly makes a come back from his sabbatical to death ride Albo: version 10.3 of the same theme, going back to 2019. …
You have got to wonder if the pro-Israel stance is hurting Albo or if it is just Voice blow back?
There will be no killing. Current ALP rules would mean a challenger would need 60% of the partyroom to cause a vote of members. Never going to happen unless a leader is found with a kilo of coke or something.
Welcome back Lars. I thought you were taking a break until December.
Agreed: This Newspoll is a big “ouch” for Labor. I am surprised to be honest, but Newspoll is the “Boss of Polls”, as confirmed by their recent prediction for the referendum. There should be a Resolve Poll soon as well as Roy Morgan on Tues arvo. We will see how this trend develops.
@meher: “Yep, a small but tangible post-referendum effect IMO. But not concerning for Labor unless it becomes a trend. Which I doubt”
+1
Since the referendum Labor has not yet been able to set a new agenda in the media. The early achievements of the government are probably forgotten a bit, drowned out by the degree to which the Voice dominated the year along with interest rate rises. Labor needs to now be talking about something positive it is doing for the future, have that be a topic in national politics conversations.. I’m sure the Israel conflict has not helped them reset after the referendum, but reset they must, and soon lest it become a trend. Especially if there is another rate rise tomorrow, “and what is the government doing to relieve my economic pain?” expectations will push even higher.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1165 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 9:53 pm
Did you have to spoil Lars Von Trier’s schadenfreude? 😆
New thread.
nadia88 @ #1168 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 9:54 pm
Resolve appears to have already dropped.
“ You have got to wonder if the pro-Israel stance is hurting Albo or if it is just Voice blow back?”
Cultcha war dividend for Dutton’s punching down tactics in the referendum.
Temporary, or the start of a real decline for Albo? Temporary, or the start of real momentum for the Coalition?
Holdenhillbilly – heard of the phrase – out of date. Fool.
Tightening but a long way to go before interesting.
@Fairman: “You have got to wonder if the pro-Israel stance is hurting Albo or if it is just Voice blow back?”
I don’t see it as pro Israel, just not one sided pro Palestinian as certain people demand. Look at Dutton for what pro Israel looks like.
Anyway, yes because of that I can see the ALP primary and Albo’s satisfaction rating dropping courtesy of hard left pro Palestinian groups (most of whom probably didn’t vote 1 Labor anyway) and Islamic Labor voters. However, that shouldn’t really wear on the 2pp at all considering Dutton would be even less palatable to those voters*
Could there be a 2pp hit from voters infuriated that Albo is not backing Israel hard enough? I suppose it’s possible but hard to see it being a big part of the move overall.
I’m fairly confident It’s The Economy Stupid is the main reason because it usually is.
*Edit – no, it would because this polling isn’t using respondent assigned preferences, but last election preferences, so a move to “other” for the primary vote would leak to Dutton on 2pp now I think. OK, it could be a substantial cause then. Could.
Arky – I agree its the economy, which means cost of living. I really don’t think most potentially swinging voters think Australia can do much about Israel / Palestine, or would have foreign policy as a vote decider on any topic. The referendum only matters to the extent that people thought the government should focus on other issues, but a few weeks after the vote its like it barely happened. By the end of this year it won’t factor at all, but if budgets keep getting tighter so will the margin. Hope for a rate loosening cycle next year!
Kirsdarke 8.52 pm
‘Oh yeah, the SA Labor government in that time of 1989-1993 was really on its last legs and that act was probably a move of desperation from them, not that it did much good since 1993 was a landslide victory for the SA Liberals, reducing Labor to just 10 out of 47 seats from a 60-40 result.’
Not quite sure who this post is responding to but just out of interest:
The 1993 flogging was because Labor bankrupted the state. They got back within one seat at the following election and won back government at the next.
Just a quick history of SA governments.
Don Dunstan, Labor 1970-1979: 4 election victories
David Tonkin, Liberal 1979-1982: 1 election victory
John Bannon, Labor, 1982-1992: 3 election victories
Dean Brown, Liberal 1993-1996: 1 election victory
John Olsen, Liberal 1997-2001: 1 election victory
Mike Rann, Labor 2002-2011: 3 election victories
Jay Weatherill, Labor 2011-2018: 2 election victories
Steven Marshall, Liberal 2018-2022: 1 election victory
Peter Malinauskas, Labor 2022-?: 1 election victory
Score 1970-2022:
Labor 13 election victories
Liberals 4 election victories
And that’s how we roll in the great State of South Australia.
Boerwar @ 11.00am
The CLP aren’t going to be siting their Unicorn Reactors in too many of their seats.
Even the most stupid of their promoters, yes, I’m looking at you Barnaby & Tim, know that the massive water demand required for their cooling systems can’t be met by the water resources available in most of CLP seats, especially the ones which they represent.
I agree with previous comments suggesting that, until the next election and especially during the campaign, every CLP member and candidate should be ruthlessly hounded on their stance regarding where in their electorate these Unicorn Reactors will be sited.
‘Macca RB says:
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 6:21 am
Boerwar @ 11.00am
The CLP aren’t going to be siting their Unicorn Reactors in too many of their seats.
….’
=======================
It will be up to Labor’s experts to site the nuclear reactors and local nuclear radioactive dumps and irrigation water intakes to cool down the plants on the Coalition’s behalf.
#Nuclear Dutton.
It was good to see the Greens walk out of the Senate because Hamas is holding women and kids as hostages in a war zone.