Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Coalition 46 (open thread)

A retooled Essential Research poll finds Labor’s lead narrowing, while Roy Morgan fails to replicate its surprise Coalition lead from last week.

The fortnightly Essential Research result brings a return of federal voting intention numbers from the pollster, which were not provided for the poll that coincided with the referendum weekend. Research director Gavin White relates they have added education to a weighting frame that had encompassed age, gender, location and past vote following the referendum, the margin of which they underestimated. This should be kept in mind when comparing the voting intention results from the last set four weeks ago.

The most striking feature of the new numbers is a four point drop for the Greens, whom the pollster had long had hovering around 14% as compared with a 2022 election result of 12.3%. Now they are at 10%, with Labor down a point to 32%, the Coalition up two to 34%, One Nation up one to 7%, the United Australia Party up one to the top end of its long-term range of 1% to 3%, and uncommitted up one to 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 48% and the Coalition up one to 46%, the remainder being uncommitted, which surpasses the mid-September result of 49% to 45% as the narrowest of the term. The gender breakdowns bear examination – where the pollster had hitherto reflected the usual pattern in having Labor doing better among women than men, this time it’s quite markedly the other way round.

Most of the other questions relate to electricity and the environment, including a semi-regular question on whether the government is doing enough to address climate change maintains a consistent pattern since Labor came to power, at which point a large gap between not doing enough and doing enough almost disappeared. Here the former is down one since April to 38% and the latter is up three to 36%, with doing too much up a point to 17%. Thirty-one per cent think it likely Australia will reach its target of net zero emissions by 2050, with 57% thinking it unlikely. A question on nuclear energy finds 50% supportive of developing nuclear plants for electricity with 33% opposed, all but unchanged when the same question was asked two years ago. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1149.

Also out are the weekly Roy Morgan numbers, which do not repeat last week’s unusual preference flow to the Coalition and resulting 50.5-49.5 lead for them on two-party preferred. This time Labor leads 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 32.5% (up half), Coalition 35% (down one) and Greens 15% (up one). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1375.

Because of the change in methodology and the likely related change in results, Essential Research going forward will be treated as a new series for bias adjustment purposes in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate — meaning in won’t be included at all until there are enough results to get a handle on its peculiarities relative to the other pollsters. The results can nonetheless be found on the poll data page, together with Roy Morgan results which likewise aren’t used to calculate the poll trend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,181 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Coalition 46 (open thread)”

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 … 22 23 24

  1. Gee, I thought India vs South Africa was a potential final for the World Cup. But the Saffers lost the toss and are currently getting carted all over the park. And they’re lousy chasers so, barring an extraordinary turn around, this game is looking likely to be a right thrashing.

    So it’s looking more likely that the final will be India vs either Australia or NZ.

  2. @meher baba

    Ah, I see. I remember “Multi-Function Polis” being treated as something of a joke when watching old Fast Forward episodes.

    Thanks for that input. I was mainly curious because I was watching one such Fast Forward episode with my parents last week where the character Pixie-Ann Wheatley was interviewing John Hewson in late 1991 and my normally right-wing dad said that he always did come across as something of a man without personality.

  3. meher baba:

    [‘It was absolutely absurd that Hawke was removed as PM at the relatively young age of 60. Yes, he’d gone off the boil a bit after the 1990 election, but I’m sure he’d have won again in 1993 and might have kept going in the role for a couple of terms more.’]

    I have to agree with you. Hawke had the almost unique ability of connecting with the electorate. And although Keating won the ’93 election, predicated on a faux pas by Hewson, the ’96 outcome was a blood bath, resulting in nearly 11 years of a former suburban solicitor ensconced in the Lodge, setting back progress with his white picket fence dogma; and the prick’s still at. I’d add, the best white picket fence I’ve seen of late is to be found at the rooms of my urologist; but I don’t think I’ll broach the subject with him.

    _________________________________________

    High Bert & Mr Newbie.

  4. How is Morrison the first Australian politician to visit Israel. Does Albo and rest of the Labor party hate Israel that much.

  5. “Multi-function polis” – now there’s a blast from the past. No one knew exactly what is was and it soon sunk without a trace. It included a space launch facility. Maybe even a bunch of small modular reactors, I can’t recall…

  6. Kirksdarke: “Ah, I see. I remember “Multi-Function Polis” being treated as something of a joke when watching old Fast Forward episodes.”

    It looked even more like a joke looking from the inside. It was meant to attract Asian investment but then, for stupid political reasons, the powers that were decided it had to be in South Australia.

    Now personally I’m very fond of South Australia, but try going online and looking at travel sites for Australia directed at Asian people and you’ll have to search long and hard to find something about South Australia there. The obvious place to build it was in the hinterland of the Gold Coast or perhaps the Sunshine Coast. Or perhaps somewhere on the coast north of Perth. But certainly not on an inland location outside of Adelaide.

    And the number of buzzwords and acronyms associated with the bloody thing. Even the people working on it were far from clear what it was supposed to do.

  7. This conversation about what would have happened if… regarding Hawke and Keating, makes me think you’re all bored. It reminds me of a who would win in a fight between Batman and Superman argument. I started putting in my two bob’s worth (see what I did there?) based on my memories of the time but deleted it after it went on and on and started sounding like Wikipedia.

    Considering the mood of the electorate, the economic realities of the time and the personalities involved, it was always going to play out just like it did. But, as I’ve already declared, I’m a determinist.

    Anyway, Batman would win because he’s really smart and Superman’s a bit stupid. Batman would trick Superman into a lead lined room and then poison him with kryptonite gas.

  9. How is Morrison the first Australian politician to visit Israel. Does Albo and rest of the Labor party hate Israel that much.

    Ten seconds of bragging rights on offer to the first PB-er who can guess how many times Morrison visited Israel during the three-years-and-272-days of his prime ministership.

  10. The Royal is at the main intersection in Daylesford. It is an old school type pub. I can’t remember where the beer garden is unless it is under its verandah.

  11. Michael ”1. How is Morrison the first Australian politician to visit Israel.
    2. Does Albo and rest of the Labor party hate Israel that much.”

    To answer your two questions:

    1. Morrison can go wherever he likes. I couldn’t give a stuff what he does.
    2. No.
    a. He has a lot of other stuff to do
    b. He believes, rightly, that as a middle power on the other side of the world with no dog in this fight, that beyond playing a constructive role in international peace and humanitarian efforts, Australia should sit out this war out.

  12. Former prime minister Scott Morrison has landed in Israel, in the first visit to the Jewish state by an Australian politician since Hamas crossed the border from Gaza and slaughtered more than 1400 Israeli citizens on October 7.

    Morrison was a strong supporter of Israel in office, including recognising West Jerusalem in 2018 as the country’s capital, a position since reversed by the Albanese government.

    As well as going on a jolly junket with Boris, SfM has another reason to visit Israel right now. He is a believer in the ‘end times’ when the great tribulation of armageddon will occur, literally fought around Jerusalem, with the upshot being millions dead and the righteous people transported to heaven in the great rapture. He’s obviously very interested in seeing how far the region is progressing towards the prophetic end times.

  13. Joe Biden found the time to visit Israel, and he would have far more on his plate than Albo. Morrison did not visit as PM but there were no instances of this magnitude during his term with 1400 getting Slaughtered in Israel and now a huge death toll in Gaza. It would have been good for the government to see all the terrible sites and gain insight and make every effort that this never happens again.

  15. Piffle. If Albo went you and yours would be calling him Airbus Albo again and questioning what on Earth impact the Australian PM could have on peace half a world away in the Middle East and wouldn’t his time be better spent on cost of living at home?

    Michael, we can tell that if Albanese walked on water you’d criticise him for failing to swim. It impresses nobody.

    Biden went because the US had deeply enmeshed itself in the Palestinian Israeli conflict over the decades. The US is relevant to what happens next there. Australia is not.

  18. No-one from the right would criticize Albo if he went to Israel. This is about human lives and suffering but some people have other priorities. People from the left may be a different story with their criticism.

  19. WB:

    Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 8:16 pm

    How would you know, but it’s at least once, him being into the “Rapture” thing.

  20. Michael, which countries are more important to us, USA and China, or Israel?

    Israel is important to the US because of arms supplies and that many yanks are right wing religious loons who think that JC is coming back to Jerusalem.

  21. I get it. Nearly 10,000 people getting killed is of no interest to Labor. More important to respect the human rights conscious China and its wonderful and fair leadership. Basically money is more important to Labor than lives.

  23. Oh Gods, the Multi Function Polis. There was some real dumb stuff in the 80s

    In fairness it was MEANT to be on the Gold Coast like the Japanese investors wanted, only Wayne Goss rightly smelled a white elephant and ran a mile from it. That should have been that, but South Australia went in for it in a desperate cry for relevance and it took a few years to cancel after that, probably because Labor accused the Coalition of being racist for, well, being racist about the Japanese in their opposition to it, and didn’t want to drop it too fast after that.

  25. Oh yeah, the SA Labor government in that time of 1989-1993 was really on its last legs and that act was probably a move of desperation from them, not that it did much good since 1993 was a landslide victory for the SA Liberals, reducing Labor to just 10 out of 47 seats from a 60-40 result.


  26. michael says:
    Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 8:45 pm

    I get it. Nearly 10,000 people getting killed is of no interest to Labor. More important to respect the human rights conscious China and its wonderful and fair leadership. Basically money is more important to Labor than lives.

    I thought you wanted Labor to take side?

  27. I am sure that had the events of October 7 happened when the Coalition were in power, Australia would have been strident and very loud in its unconditional support for one side. As for the other side, well, they’re just a bunch of [insert term used by Coalition base and target voters] who don’t matter. That killing several thousand civilians (and counting), starving two million more and reducing a city to rubble may not necessarily be an appropriate or proportionate response is neither here nor there in their minds.

    Well sorry, I think it is.

    Looking over the span of 75 years, both sides are right and both sides are wrong.

  28. @michael: “I get it. Nearly 10,000 people getting killed is of no interest to Labor. More important to respect the human rights conscious China and its wonderful and fair leadership. Basically money is more important to Labor than lives.”

    No lives would be saved by Albo visiting Israel. Do you think your middle school debating tactics are clever?

  29. I said visit Israel. Did not say cannot visit Gaza. Up to Albo. I would be visiting every terrible site no matter which side it is in.

  30. Albo has spent his last month focusing on the two relationships that matter most to Australia’s future.

    Neither of which is Israel. Or the Gaza Palestinians for that matter.

  31. @meher:

    “ Gee, I thought India vs South Africa was a potential final for the World Cup. But the Saffers lost the toss and are currently getting carted all over the park. And they’re lousy chasers so, barring an extraordinary turn around, this game is looking likely to be a right thrashing.

    So it’s looking more likely that the final will be India vs either Australia or NZ.”

    ________

    It looks like NZ will be lucky to scrap into the semi-finals ranked fourth – as they have lost their last four matches on the trot. It would be a huge boil over for them to knock the hosts out, and this NZ isnt quite the one that nearly took the title back in 2019.

    SA v Australia in the other semi-final seems virtually assured.

  32. Throwing shade on Albo because Biden visited Israel.

    Goodness me haha.

    There couldn’t be any possible difference at all with those two leaders in world politics.

    I reckon michael should stick with the woke leftist agenda and the snowflakes with a little side salad of sov-cit nonsense if he wants to have a go at Labor, at least it would be a bit consistent with the bulk dross I read on the internet.

    Don’t get into specifics mate, what you have been posting right now is a really bad take.

  33. The US is the principal backer – and arms supplier of Israel.

    It sponsored the ‘two state solution’ via the Camp David Accords.

    Biden – and America – has skin the the game that Albo, Labor and Australia do not have.

    Albo, Wong and Co have got the balance exactly right, but ‘michael’ from Menzies House sniffs another front on the Cultcha War. It’s as simple as that.

    What a disgraceful excuse for a human being ‘michael’ is. Same goes for PDuddy & Co.

  34. A blast from the past, a Guy Rundle 2015 article on the MFP. Probably questionable, but readable.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20171107004839/https://www.crikey.com.au/2015/01/16/rundle-leaking-the-multi-function-polis-or-how-i-won-the-1990-election-for-andrew-peacock/
    Rundle: leaking the ‘Multi-function Polis’, or how I won the 1990 election for Andrew Peacock
    Crikey’s writer-at-large comes clean on his baffling role as a whistleblower in the 1990 election.

  36. Ah, Batman vs Superman. That’s a proper discussion!

    Actually, I’ve always intensely disliked the idea of putting the two characters against each other – or even having them team up together, really – since the power disparity between them is so extreme that the narrative has to twist itself into knots and come up with all this contrived stuff just for Batman to have even the slightest chance against Superman. One is a rich dude in great shape with lots of cool high-tech gear, the other is basically a God. It’s like, well…

    https://youtu.be/zFuMpYTyRjw?si=7qQV3a9T85BYglDI

    IMO, both characters work best when their universes are kept entirely seperate from each other.

  37. Anyway, while we are discussing political what-ifs, here’s one that doesn’t get mentioned often:

    Turnbull v Shorten, 2019. Who would have won?

  38. Cronus

    Fair point on air power for Ukraine. IF the wexst does actually send a sufficient number of airframes, with sufficient time to familiarise with them, it will make a difference.

    I watched a late replay of ABC news tonight. Albo’s visit to China was featured prominently, with a very friendly looking Chinese official greeting. I WON’T expect pictures in the Murdoch press 🙂

  39. meher baba @ #943 Sunday, November 5th, 2023 – 7:59 pm

    Gee, I thought India vs South Africa was a potential final for the World Cup. But the Saffers lost the toss and are currently getting carted all over the park. And they’re lousy chasers so, barring an extraordinary turn around, this game is looking likely to be a right thrashing.

    Cricinfo

    37th Match (D/N), Eden Gardens, November 05, 2023, ICC Cricket World Cup
    India (27.3/50 ov) 160/2
    India chose to bat. Current RR: 5.81
    • Last 5 ov (RR): 26/0 (5.20)
    Live Forecast:IND 299

  40. @Asha

    I think if it was Turnbull vs Shorten in 2019, I think it would have been Shorten, albeit narrowly.

    It was clear that Shorten was getting under Turnbull’s skin, especially with his “sucking sycophant” outburst in parliament and Turnbull was personally affronted by this uppity commoner daring to challenge him. That would have probably made the election campaign quite bumpy and Shorten would have probably got the better of him, maybe flipping a handful of seats in Queensland, NSW and WA, but not Victoria.

  41. Asha: I think Shorten would have gone better and possibly won. The big end of town nonsense made more sense with Turnbull as PM. But, because there is a problem with running with policies designed to take money off lots of voters, Labor still might have come unstuck.

  42. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham · 2m
    #Newspoll 52-48 to ALP

    Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham · 31s
    #Newspoll ALP 35 L-NP 37 Green 12 ON 6 others 10

  43. If we’re diving into the counterfactuals, let’s not pussyfoot around. Who wins between Nelson and Crean? Give the people the contest they want.

  45. Newspoll Albanese net -10 (42-52)
    Dutton net -13 (37-50)

    Better PM Albanese leads 46-36 (skews to incumbents, this is a below historic average lead)

  46. And if the PM or the FM visited Israel the commentariat, which includes the Opposition, would turn on a dime and say they’re only there for a photo opportunity. I could guarantee it 100%.

    I mean, be honest, what could ANY Australian politician achieve by going anywhere near there? Johnson and Morrison have only gone there to try and rehabilitate their tattered political personas. Other than that they will achieve 3/5ths of bugger all. And I don’t even think they’ll achieve that because everyone who has eyes to see and which are connected to a functioning brain, knows that to be true.

  47. #Newspoll Albanese net -10 (42-52)
    Dutton net -13 (37-50)

    Better PM Albanese leads 46-36 (skews to incumbents, this is a below historic average lead)

  49. @Asha:”Anyway, while we are discussing political what-ifs, here’s one that doesn’t get mentioned often:

    Turnbull v Shorten, 2019. Who would have won?”

    Shorten. The whole campaign was planned and geared around Turnbull and his technocrat policies as the opponent and catastrophically failed to change gears vs Morrison but would have been fine vs Turnbull as we saw at the previous federal election.

  50. Yep, a small but tangible post-referendum effect IMO. But not concerning for Labor unless it becomes a trend. Which I doubt.

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 … 22 23 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *