YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Labor keeps its nose in front on two-party preferred in the final YouGov poll for the year, but the good news for them ends there.

The final poll of the year from YouGov, which will return next year as a regular three-weekly series, finds Labor with a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred based on preference flows from the previous election, despite recording their lowest primary vote of any poll since the election. Labor is down two points on the last poll to 29%, their day saved to some extent by a two point rise for the Greens to 15%. The Coalition is up one to 37%, while One Nation is steady on 7%. Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up one to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 48-34 to 46-36. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1555.

I have recently started adding YouGov and RedBridge Group polling to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which doesn’t seem to have caught all the way up with the recent slide in Labor’s fortunes. In the case of the earlier three YouGov polls (though not yet the latest one), the poll data feature incorporates an array of unpublished breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,684 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. John Stone, one of those loony Lefties who (on Planet FUBAR) opposed the floating of the AUD:

    ‘An informal advisor to … Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, Stone was elected to the Australian Senate at the 1987 election representing Queensland, as a member of the pro-Bjelke-Petersen National Party. John Howard … appointed Stone as the Opposition finance spokesman. Following the release of the Coalition’s One Australia immigration policy in 1988, Stone said: “Asian immigration has to be slowed. It’s no use dancing around the bushes.”’

    * * *

    ‘After 1990, Stone was an outspoken critic of multiculturalism and a supporter of the Samuel Griffith Society, which he helped found. He had a column on economics and politics in The Australian Financial Review. Other Australian publications for which he wrote include The Sydney Morning Herald, the quarterly National Observer, and Quadrant. Stone was critical of the Howard Government for eroding the power of the states within the Australian federal system, regarding that as a departure from the long-standing Liberal/National coalition support for “states’ rights”. However, in … Quadrant, Stone argued that Howard had been Australia’s greatest Prime Minister.’

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stone_(Australian_politician)

  2. FUBAR:

    Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 9:22 pm

    [‘Mavis

    This is my “I couldn’t give a fat rat’s clacker” face.’]

    I thought as much. Please either deny you’ve posted under another
    pseudonym or confirm it. On second thoughts, don’t bother. And you thought she who expects to be obeyed is in charge. Pepys.

  3. Douglas and Milko @ #1517 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:18 pm

    And, then there are the engineers. When Engineering at Sydney University decided that engineers would no longer do 2nd year physics, Harry Messel quipped that “Not only will engineers now not know why their bridges fall down, they will not even know why they don’t fall up”.

    Hi D&M, I did Chem Eng at USyd, and attended Harry Messel’s so-called ‘Advanced Physics’ lectures in my First Year.

    He was, without doubt, the absolutely worst lecturer I had in my whole time at university, and I had some doozies.

    He scribbled unintelligible hieroglyphics all over double, triple decker blackboards, accompanied by garbled, shouted, heavily accented, rapid fire statements. He refused to answer questions, and left abruptly before we had time to finish taking down the lecture notes. He provided no hand-outs whatsoever.

    As a lecturer, a bad joke, a legend in his own mid-morning break.

    The tutorials were OK. Taken by Masters and PhD students. Quite fun, although a bit dangerous at times. Pretty free with radioactive bits and pieces. Also, what happens when you short a DC motor?

    I got the textbook, and stopped going to the Prof’s lectures after 3 weeks. Got a Distinction.

    PS While his Science students were doing 16 hours required attendance for ‘full time’ in their Year 2 of 3, we were doing 42 hours, in Years 2 & 3 of 4, including 8 am start 2 days, and prac till 9 pm. We also had a real computer, courtesy of IBM.


  4. michaelsays:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 5:47 pm
    Rex Climate Change is currently saving lives. More people die from the cold than the heat.

    That is a doozy.


  5. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 9:00 pm
    “Just a shame that their second chance of a real Conservative under Truss was killed off by the establishment …”

    Right … this is surely a spoof account, isn’t it … isn’t it?

    It has to be or ‘owning the libs (Labs)’ account. 🙂

  6. “The Establishment in the UK has changed from being the landed gentry to being the Oxbridge Social Scientists beholden the gods of the EU, globalism and ecofascism.”

    It is a parody account, perhaps even a good one.

  7. It is true though, that it is a lot easier to ascribe cold as a cause of death than heat, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the cold is killing more.

    Like with covid, which of course didn’t kill anyone who wasn’t going to die (eventually) anyway.

    Let the bodies pile high, as the cool fsr right kids say.


  8. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 10:02 pm
    FUBAR says:
    ‘40 years since the AUD was floated in the face of massive opposition from Unions and the Left’

    Priceless!

    “Over the next few months, the newly appointed Governor of the Reserve Bank, Bob Johnston, openly encouraged Hawke and Keating to move to a floating exchange rate.

    “However, there was *opposition from the Treasury Department* whose head, *John Stone*, believed that once the currency was floated the dollar might increase in value, which would reduce Australian exports and stall the economic recovery that was getting underway.

    “The float was supported by shadow Treasurer John Howard. But the *Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Peacock*, the *National Party* and *some of Keating’s Labor colleagues* opposed the float, just as *Malcolm Fraser* had when as prime minister it was proposed to him two years previously.”

    https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/australian-dollar-floated#:~:text=In%201983%20the%20newly%20elected,money%20within%20world%20currency%20markets

    Indeed Priceless!

  9. “It has been estimated that about 5.1 million excess deaths per year are associated with non-optimal temperatures. Of those, 4.6 million are associated with colder than optimum temperatures, and 0.5 million are associated with hotter than optimum temperatures.”

    https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/human-deaths-from-hot-and-cold-temperatures-and-implications-for-climate-change#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20estimated%20that,with%20hotter%20than%20optimum%20temperatures.

    “Excessive Heat Can Kill, But Extreme Cold Still Causes Many More Fatalities”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2023/07/19/excessive-summer-heat-can-kill-but-extreme-cold-causes-more-fatalities/?sh=60cbd0671d88


  10. WeWantPaulsays:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 11:10 pm
    “The Establishment in the UK has changed from being the landed gentry to being the Oxbridge Social Scientists beholden the gods of the EU, globalism and ecofascism.”

    It is a parody account, perhaps even a good one.

    FUBAR is a fanboi of Liz Truss. That says it all.
    Until now I have never came across a person or article, who praised Liz Truss after she resigned. FUBAR is the first one to my knowledge.

    Or can it be a AI account? You know you feed all the parameters and the AI spits the content to post.

  11. Have you heard people being killed due to heat stroke when they are exposed to sun in the temperature ranges between 40-50 degrees.
    Recently in Brazil one day in November 2023, the temperature was about. 42°C but felt like 58.5°C.
    Many people died in that heat.

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/19/brazil-temperatures-extreme-heat-danger-climate-change-inequality?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17023846095231&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fglobal-development%2F2023%2Fnov%2F19%2Fbrazil-temperatures-extreme-heat-danger-climate-change-inequality

    ‘Hell de Janeiro’: scorching heat highlights Brazil’s glaring inequality

  12. Or can it be a AI account? You know you feed all the parameters and the AI spits the content to post.

    —————————————————————————-
    You do know AI means “Artificial Intelligence”?. Do you see any evidence of Intelligence behind the posts you were referring to?.

    Though i guess even with AI if you put rubbish in you get rubbish out.

  13. Friendly Jordies in fine form again. In this video “Manufacturing Discontent” he shows us how the drones at the IPA infiltrate the ABC, Channels 7 & 9, Sky News, 2GB, The Australian and other Murdoch rags. Gives a couple of examples (sand mining regulations and curbing of excessive fishing in Qld) of how they falsely claim these “widespread”,“grass roots” concerns of citizens but in reality are well co-ordinated astroturfing campaigns that just coincidentally have the IPA talking heads on the TV parroting almost word for word what Sky, The Oz, 9, 2GB etc say. BTW, he’s bloody funny. Him and his team often do investigate journalism that way better than 95% of the media in the country. Bravo Jordan, keep it up you bloody legend.

    https://youtu.be/__8gZEp8bZ0?si=xv_WVsz6MpeCqq5M

  14. The Establishment effect can be seen in Australia in Canberra – the Voice Referendum demonstrated how far out of touch the public servants in Canberra are with the rest of the population. They may as well be living in a different country. The next nearest was Danistan and even there it was about a 14% difference.

  15. “You do know AI means “Artificial Intelligence”?. Do you see any evidence of Intelligence behind the posts you were referring to?.”

    My premise is that being a parody account where the basis of your parody is already so dishonest, so completely f*cked up and so far beyond any rational human thought, that to run a parody account on an extreme end of that spectrum, even one that is quite confusing and often comes across as genuine rather than parody, is a monumental work of intelligence, misplaced, yes, misfiring, yes, but still impressive in a way, in much the same way that homer or bart getting the 5000th electric shock without learning not to touch the trigger is impressive.

  16. “Downing Street confirms that Net Zero Minister Graham Stuart has flown back from #COP28  to vote on the Rwanda Bill tonight…But says he will be flying back to Dubai for the end of the climate summit late”

    You cannot make this stupidity up.

  17. FUBARsays:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 11:51 pm
    “Downing Street confirms that Net Zero Minister Graham Stuart has flown back from #COP28 to vote on the Rwanda Bill tonight…But says he will be flying back to Dubai for the end of the climate summit late”

    You cannot make this stupidity up.
    ————————————————————————
    They are Tories, so they were born that way. Though it took them many generations of inbreeding to achieve the level they are now at. Fortunately a big broom is going to go through them next UK election and they will be assigned to the dust bin of history as they deserve.

  18. A note on inbreeding. Charles Darwin first published his discoveries on the detrimental effects on inbreeding in plants. In his work “The Effects of Cross and Self Fertilisation in the Vegetable Kingdom” published in 1876. Which was 39 years after he had married his first cousin Emma Wedgwood. So far to late for him to do anything about it.

    Quote: “There’s no use crying over spilt milk.”

  19. FUBARsays:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 11:47 pm
    The Establishment effect can be seen in Australia in Canberra – the Voice Referendum demonstrated how far out of touch the public servants in Canberra are with the rest of the population. They may as well be living in a different country. The next nearest was Danistan and even there it was about a 14% difference.
    ——————————————————————-
    Yep, every second person in Canberra needs to stick a crayon up there nose and lodge it in their brain. To get Canberra’s average IQ in line with the rest of the country. So Canberra can also have a few people like FUBAR too. I suggest a select few lodge a whole packet of crayons up there also.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HOMR

    Quote: “No-mind is an evil place for mind to stay.” City of Illusions

  20. FUBAR @ #1669 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 11:47 pm

    The Establishment effect can be seen in Australia in Canberra – the Voice Referendum demonstrated how far out of touch the public servants in Canberra are with the rest of the population. They may as well be living in a different country. The next nearest was Danistan and even there it was about a 14% difference.

    And you would be making a gross generalisation, and thus be wrong. Again. Australia is more than a State by Territory analysis. But hey, come here every day and try to make every post a Liberal winner, hey?

  21. Ven @ #1664 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 11:26 pm


    WeWantPaulsays:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 11:10 pm
    “The Establishment in the UK has changed from being the landed gentry to being the Oxbridge Social Scientists beholden the gods of the EU, globalism and ecofascism.”

    It is a parody account, perhaps even a good one.

    FUBAR is a fanboi of Liz Truss. That says it all.
    Until now I have never came across a person or article, who praised Liz Truss after she resigned. FUBAR is the first one to my knowledge.

    Or can it be a AI account? You know you feed all the parameters and the AI spits the content to post.

    He’s for any politician who pledges to destroy the economic social compact by proposing taxes so low they only end up supporting the Defence Forces, and the politicians who think up schemes like Robodebt.

    I’ll be interested to see what Liz Truss’ numbers are at the next general election and whether her constituency is as venal as she is. Or whether they realise she’s actually not a 21st century Margaret Thatcher.

  22. ‘At his first press conference as Queensland’s premier-in-waiting, Steven Miles came across as a man fighting his own instincts.

    Miles, who built a public reputation as a wisecracking political warrior, spoke about the approaching Tropical Cyclone Jasper and his plans for government with little emotion or animation.

    Before his effective confirmation as the successor to Annastacia Palaszczuk on Tuesday, colleagues had questioned whether Miles had the “gravitas” required of a premier. So his reversion to monotone, with a natural disaster lumbering towards the coast, is an understandable attempt to show people he’s up to the job.

    “I think the best case I can put is by demonstrating just how I would lead, and that is how I would lead, with 100% absolute focus on the safety and wellbeing of Queensland,” Miles has said.

    But it was another press conference held on Tuesday, from another man who wants to be the premier of Queensland, which highlighted the real challenge Miles will face.

    The leader of the Liberal National party, David Crisafulli, is ahead in the polls and, at his appearance in Townsville, appeared several steps ahead in the political manoeuvring.

    Crisafulli introduced a woman, Melissa, whose car had been rammed in Townsville, allegedly by a group of youths.

    “When Melissa tells her story, I want Queenslanders to reflect on what is happening in Brisbane at the moment,” Crisafulli said.

    “I want Queenslanders to explain in their minds whether or not their government is interested in Queensland or some sort of game of thrones.”

    Melissa cried as she breathlessly recounted the incident. A bloke driving past in a ute shouted out a message of support.

    Crisafulli and the LNP have ruthlessly exploited the youth crime issue, pushing for hardline policies, like removing the principle of youth detention as a last resort, that experts say will make the situation worse. It has also been undeniably politically successful.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/12/with-cyclone-jasper-looming-over-queensland-steven-miles-opts-for-an-unfamiliar-new-tone

  23. Sad news from SA:

    A top doctor has died in hospital after a violent home invasion, with police confident of apprehending multiple suspects at large.

    Michael Yung, 61, was transferred to the Royal Adelaide Hospital in a critical condition on Tuesday morning after he was attacked in his home at Gilberton in Adelaide’s inner north on Monday.

    Late Tuesday afternoon, interim chief executive officer of the Royal Adelaide Hospital Rebecca Graham confirmed Yung had passed away.

    Tributes have flowed for Yung, the highly respected former head of the Women’s and Children’s Hospital paediatric intensive care medical unit, since the news of his attack.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/12/adelaide-home-invasion-michael-yung-doctor-intensive-care-unit

  24. ‘Crisafulli introduced a woman, Melissa, whose car had been rammed in Townsville, allegedly by a group of youths.’

    Crisafulli gave a car-crash interview?

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