The final poll of the year from YouGov, which will return next year as a regular three-weekly series, finds Labor with a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred based on preference flows from the previous election, despite recording their lowest primary vote of any poll since the election. Labor is down two points on the last poll to 29%, their day saved to some extent by a two point rise for the Greens to 15%. The Coalition is up one to 37%, while One Nation is steady on 7%. Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up one to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 48-34 to 46-36. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1555.
I have recently started adding YouGov and RedBridge Group polling to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which doesn’t seem to have caught all the way up with the recent slide in Labor’s fortunes. In the case of the earlier three YouGov polls (though not yet the latest one), the poll data feature incorporates an array of unpublished breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators.
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:20 pm
Boring War
You support posters posting defamatory things on Poll Bludger?
————————————————————————
You claim something defamatory was posted in this post below. I don’t see what your problem with it actually is. All that is said is Cash has serious question to answer over misleading the court. It doesn’t specify what those question are or claim she actually mislead the court. It just says questions have been raised and she needs to supply some answers over them.
Aaron newtonsays:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:07 pm
it seems Michaelia Cash has searious questions to answer if she mis lead the court she is in trouble if she was a labor mp she would have resigned in 2016
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:11 pm
Scott says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 3:57 pm
You’re wrong. You wrote:
“Cash said she did not know anything until February 2021
Cash knew in October 2019”
That is potentially defamatory.
There is no evidence that she new before February 2021 and the secretly recorded conversation supports that:
——————–
How is it defamatory
and where is the no evidence that she didn’t knew
Brittany Higgins claimed she spoken to cash , during october 2019 and cash knew before February 5, 2021
I would keep an eye on the Rwanda vote over in the UK in the next 24 hours, could be the nail in the coffin for Sunak….. Braverman has been on the war path since getting sacked
William Bowe @ #1583 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:58 pm
In your opinion of course.
What would you catagorise an Australian born nut job in the context of a crime figure who had lost the plot and believed they were untouchable yet killed and maimed others with impunity.
” i was giving an example where the accepted science was actually very wrong – despite having almost universal support.
For someone so clearly intelligent, your interpretation of context is very poor.”
Well it isn’t a surprise that science, which by its very nature seeks to teach better understanding, actually does. It is kinda a foundational point.
This genius point is a bit like the fact that Wednesday follows Tuesday until we amend the calendar.
The possibility that science may advance and discover something, say for arguments sake a tipping point with a massive negative feedback look that undoes entirely the current climate science isn’t a good reason to fail to act on and in accordance with current best understanding.
Taking that one step further there is obviously also a risk that science will advance and discover tipping points with massive positive feedback loops making what is already, according to current credible sciences ‘urgent need to act 10 years ago’ even worse.amd more urgent.
As dumb as pouring petrol on the fire currently burning in your house because future fire fighting might put out the fire.
So you might need to be a little more patient with people who don’t understand your position.
William Bowe @ #1586 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:58 pm
That’s fair, though I think he meant in the specific instance of the article, not in general. That is, about an individual, not a race.
Aaronsays:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:27 pm
well we do know cash new a lot more then Caty Gallagher but it didnt stop thethe liberals triying to get her sacked over a leakedtext mesigemaybi the so called mean girls are renyolds and cash
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It is pretty well established that Reynolds lied when she claimed that Kitching told her that Labor had weaponized the case. Around 2 weeks before the allegations were aired on TV. We know now that Gallagher was the only one that was told and that was 4 days before the allegations aired not 2 weeks. Kitching always denied Reynold’s allegations and claimed that she only found out when she read it on News.com the day the allegations were aired. All information that has come out since then supports Kitching’s and not Reynold’s version of events.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/late-senator-refuted-linda-reynolds-higgins-claim-in-letter-before-her-death/news-story/15f2ef2639c5e11adf2b14332613cd8d
FUBAR
Not at all. There are many examples where the accepted wisdom has been wrong. A good example is Dr Joseph Goldberger, who solved the puzzle of what caused Pellagra, using epidemiology.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pellagra
The difference is, that in both the Pellagra case and the Barry Marshall case, no actual epidemiology / rigorous scientific research had been used in formulating the prior opinions.
I think what you are trying to use is proof by mathematical induction : going from the specific to the general. (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction)
So, if there is one case where the accepted wisdom was overturned, therefore all cases with accepted wisdom will be overturned.
This only works for logic: where you have precise control over what your words and symbols mean.
Scott
“where is the no evidence”
Oh, FFS.
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:50 pm
Scott
“where is the no evidence”
Oh, FFS.
—————-
well prove it
Ten producer gives evidence
RELATED ARTICLE
On Tuesday, The Project’s producer, Angus Llewellyn, was called to give evidence by Ten. He told the court he listened to the recorded call before the broadcast.
Lehrmann’s barrister, Matthew Richardson, SC, asked Llewellyn: “What you were putting to air was that Ms Cash had known about this since 2019, correct?”
“Ms Higgins had told us that Ms Cash had known earlier,” Llewellyn said. But he said The Project broadcast made clear Cash’s office disputed this, and Ten published “full statements” online.
———————————-
That doesnt suggest it shows Cash did not know , but disputing the claim
If Kitching had admitted knowing, she would have been in even deeper shit with the Mean Girls than she already was.
So, filed under “she would say that”. A politician covering their arse – who would have ever thought of that?
Scott
I’ve already presented the proof – Higgins recorded the proof. That’s why they didn’t want the recording used.
Ok FUBAR
Lets wait and see if you are right
The only Mean Girls are in the Liberal Party.
Indeed, which is how Penny Wong launched herself onto the cabinet table and personally beheaded Kimberley Kitching herself with her Hattori Hanzō sword and intimidated everyone present into accepting her leadership in the Senate, at least that lines up with the anti-Labor bullshit propaganda line, if we want to play with stupid conspiracies tonight.
Maybe there’s a little mean girl in everyone .
wouldn’t this be a so-called mean girls/boys episode in the Lib/nats
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-08/peter-dutton-no-concerns-about-kylea-tink-claim-feeling-unsafe/102830580
Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton says he has no concerns about an independent MP’s claim that she felt confronted in parliament by a member of the opposition.
Key points:
North Sydney MP Kylea Tink says an opposition MP yelled at her aggressively in parliament on Wednesday
She says she did not feel safe during the debate and division
Peter Dutton says he’s satisfied with the opposition member’s account of the exchange
At the end of question time on Thursday, North Sydney MP Kylea Tink revealed that after a division on the previous sitting day, an opposition MP allegedly yelled at her aggressively.
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:55 pm
If Kitching had admitted knowing, she would have been in even deeper shit with the Mean Girls than she already was.
So, filed under “she would say that”. A politician covering their arse – who would have ever thought of that?
——————————————————————–
We know Kitching couldn’t have known 2 weeks before the program was aired like Reynold’s claimed. As we know the first time Higgins told any part of her story to anyone in the ALP was 4 days before. Which makes Reynold’s claim of 2 weeks a verified lie. We also know that Gallagher would not have told Kitching anyway. As they weren’t political allies within the Labor party. There is no evidence that Gallagher even told her political allies within the ALP like Wong or Keneally. Why would she tell Gallagher. As Kitching says in the article i posted:
“Simply put, it is not possible to divulge information to anyone about a matter of which I had no knowledge,” she wrote.
“I had never heard of Ms Brittany Higgins or Senator Reynolds’ involvement in her story until it was first reported on 15 February 2021 on news.com.au.
“Moreover, it is not possible to divulge a secret plan which did not actually exist. It has not been Senator Wong’s practice to divulge her secret plans, if she ever has any, to me. I am not in the habit of confiding with Senator Wong either.”
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:55 pm
If Kitching had admitted knowing, she would have been in even deeper shit with the Mean Girls than she already was.
So, filed under “she would say that”. A politician covering their arse – who would have ever thought of that?
——————————————————————-
A pretty dumb argument i must say. If Kitching feared these so called “mean girls”. Then you would think she wouldn’t have told Reynolds anyway. That would be the best way not to get in trouble with them. As it turns out she didn’t know anything about it at all. Which is the real reason she couldn’t have told Reynolds what Reynolds claims she did.
Lars
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 8:04 pm
Maybe there’s a little mean girl in everyone .
You enjoyed that Lars.
From the sounds of it the Rwanda vote is going to get up in the UK, only because the Right wing nutters want to have a go at altering it in the committee stage. However, it might just be Sunak’s people spreading that to convince them to go down that path.
Ms Tink appears to have chosen the wrong profession if she expects Federal Parliament to be the equivalent of a yoga class. She was rightly being held to account for her hypocrisy after being elected on a platform of more Government transparency and then voted with the ALP to cover up and protect a Minister.
ALP Politicians never yell at anyone in Parliament,ever. Apparently.
I have to give it to the ALP and the leftist – they learnt that character assassination works and are trying it against Dutton at every opportunity. The old mud sticks philosophy in play.
FUBAR@6.49pm
Thank you for answering my post.
You are correct in saying that the General Theory of Relativity does not explain everything – and you will get the Nobel prize for discovery if you can come up with a GUT (Grand Unifying Theory). Actually, I think my grandfather said that about finding some cups in his cupboard, but you get the gist.
However, General Relativity explains everything it sets out to explain. It has been tested many times, and every time it passes the test. No one has come up with a single test that falsifies General Relativity. See e.g https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity.
Do you trust you GPS? It relies in the theory of General Relativity being true (i.e. applicable in the space-time context in which you use it).
Not actually being too supercilious here, but if you were in a high-speed spacecraft to Mars, because of the corrections to GPS because of General Relativity, your GPS would probably work.
They are proven “somehow” because physicists have spent decades using mathematics, and experimentation, to find theories for how things work that are falsifiable: it only takes one example of a theory being falsified for it to be chucked in the bin.
So “proven somehow” means that 1) they were not falsifiable, and 2) eventually shown to be very, very likely (about 4.5 sigma for the Higg’s Boson , if my memory serves me well).
So, let’s look at Newtonian mechanics (circa 1700), which explains all we need to know about how rockets are launched into space.
General Relativity comes along with a more encompassing explanation for how gravity affects mechanics.
Does this falsify Newtonian Mechanics? Not at all. General Relativity actually proves Newtonian Mechanics, as a subset of General Relativity.
You say “yes, CO2 has thermal properties that result in the Green House effect – which has historically lagged by 600-800 years – so it hasn’t been a driver in the past ”
This is incorrect.
CO_2 levels have been a driver of the temperature on the Earth:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide#:~:text=Without%20carbon%20dioxide%2C%20Earth%27s%20natural,causing%20global%20temperature%20to%20rise.
Also, scientists, for the least 100 and more years, have predicted that the increase in atmospheric CO_2, due to the Industrial Revolution , would lead to an increase in average world temperatures.
This has happened at every point that the scientists predicted.
What more evidence do you need?
“they learnt that character assassination works and are trying it against Dutton at every opportunity”
The projection is strong in this one.
Natural sciences:
Study empirical phenomena in the natural world
physics, astronomy, chemistry, biology, earth science
Social sciences:
Study empirical phenomena in the social world
economics, political science, psychology, sociology, anthropology
Formal sciences:
Study abstract forms / structures / representations
Mathematics, logic, statistics, computer science, theoretical linguistics, decision theory, systems theory
Humanities:
Study fundamental questions asked by humans
Use comparative methods, aesthetic criticism, source criticism, speculative reasoning
History, philosophy, languages, linguistics, literature, visual arts, performing arts
While others stoop to “character assassination”, FUBAR fearlessly holds mean girls to account for their girlish meanness. He’s very concerned about “hypocrisy” as well.
Next we will be hearing from FUBAR how Lord Moncton discovered a cure for AIDS.
After which FUBAR will extol the simply amazing scientific credibility of Plimer.
Unless the UK cut ties with the the European Convention on Human Rights the Rwanda Policy will fail again. Sunak deserves to lose the next election. He is a dilettante like Turnbull who is a weather vane – not a Conservative. If COVID hadn’t buggered up Johnson’s PMship they would have left the ECHR and stopped the boats and told the EU to shove it on the NI protocol farce by now and they would be smashing UK Labour in the polls, again.
Just a shame that their second chance of a real Conservative under Truss was killed off by the establishment- but they are now implementing her tax cuts.
“Just a shame that their second chance of a real Conservative under Truss was killed off by the establishment …”
Right … this is surely a spoof account, isn’t it … isn’t it?
Douglas and Milko @ #1557 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:18 pm
Great example FUBAR. Barry Marshall got lucky once (and the guy that did the real work Robin Warren didn’t – he didn’t get to clear the Helicobacter pylori like Barry did) & is a standing joke amongst his peers – which include me.
Liz Truss was killed off by an overnight ten-point collapse in the polls.
It was the establishment wot done it, William. 🙂
Edit:
Those dastardly’elites’!
FUBAR:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:20 pm
[‘Boring War’]
His nom de plume is Boerwar. After all, no one, save for me, refers to your former alias of Bucephalus. You should come clean.
________________________________________
Lars, Cronus hinted some time ago that he has health issues. I hope he returns to the blog in due course. A former senior army officer is not normally associated with the Left, which makes him interesting.
________________________________________
For some years now the US Supreme Court has been suffering a public confidence crisis – currently at 41% approval. It will have the chance soon to redress same by behaving in a manner befitting a court that has a proud history – think of Marshall, CJ’s tenure.
Trump claims he had complete immunity while in office. This is absurd in the extreme; for it would mean, for instance, that he could walk down 5th Avenue and shoot anyone at will & not be brought to book. He’s simply playing for time, hoping that if his numerous trials are delayed, and if he were to be ensconced in office, he would either pardon himself or have a lackey in the D of J bring to a halt his manifold indictments. This is sure madness!
I note that numerous legal scholars have been sounding the alarm bells, including but not limited to the eminent scholar Laurence Tribe. Their message should not go unheeded. I’m sure Melania intends to make regular Sunday visits to Rikers Island, with a saw/chisel embedded in the cake. Or she might just piss off.
RHWombat.
Shortly after Marshall there was a Perth Urologist who used to present at local meetings his breakthrough theory that benign prostatic hyperplasia was an infective process.
Needless to say his name is still not ringing bells in Stockholm.
rhwombat – the only Nobel Prize winner to be considered a joke – no one else? Nothing to do with supporting an argument against someone and something you disagree with. Apparently.
“ Unless the UK cut ties with the the European Convention on Human Rights the Rwanda Policy will fail again. Sunak deserves to lose the next election. He is a dilettante like Turnbull who is a weather vane – not a Conservative. If COVID hadn’t buggered up Johnson’s PMship they would have left the ECHR and stopped the boats and told the EU to shove it on the NI protocol farce by now and they would be smashing UK Labour in the polls, again.
Just a shame that their second chance of a real Conservative under Truss was killed off by the establishment- but they are now implementing her tax cuts.”
______
Don’t worry Neidermeyer, Suella Braverman still marches with her Marshall’s batton (or is it a cosh?).
Mavis
This is my “I couldn’t give a fat rat’s clacker” face.
William – correct – caused by the Establishment. A combination of the Home Office and Treasury spooking markets with forecasts of doom.
Exactly the same reason why every attempt to stop the boats has been stymied by the UK Public service.
Boring War
Can’t say I’m a fan of either Monkton or Plimer. They probably do more damage than good, unfortunately – Monkton mostly by just being a complete pompous twit.
FUBAR, not being a unreconstructed socialist like yourself, I find it a bit hard to believe that the aggregated wisdom of global capital markets counted for nothing in the face of a line laid down by a few bureaucrats in London. Once again though, it’s fascinating how absolutely the turns the culture wars have taken over the past decade have led you to abandon everything you ever pretended to believe.
FUBAR, the Conservative Party of the UK has been in power for (checks notes) 13 years and 7 months. Are they really so gormless that they cannot control the very Establishment that so many of them are so deeply connected to or embedded within, in all that time? No wonder you are calling for their electoral annihilation at the next general election! I wholeheartedly concur with you in that wish.
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 9:33 pm
Boring War
Can’t say I’m a fan of either Monkton or Plimer. …’
———————-
They are your people. Past their use-by date are they? Spit them out?
Boerwar @ Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 9:37 pm
”
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 9:33 pm
Boring War
Can’t say I’m a fan of either Monkton or Plimer. …’
———————-
They are your people. Past their use-by date are they? Spit them out?”
===========================
Time for a different mask, to suit different times. ‘Twas always thus with conservatives, to hide their unchangingly frozen hearts and fossilised minds.
I find it interesting how the Liberal Party and their followers have created whole cloth out of a dead person.
Dead men tell no lies, and dead women can’t tell the truth either.
Macarthur
The Establishment in the UK has changed from being the landed gentry to being the Oxbridge Social Scientists beholden the gods of the EU, globalism and ecofascism.
William @9.33 pm
Fear and greed rule the markets. Generate enough fear and it’s contagious.
40 years since the AUD was floated in the face of massive opposition from Unions and the Left – well done Hawke and Keating.
William Bowesays:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 4:26 pm
So the real question we need to ask here. Is this a 45% regression to what they would have become anyway without the Army career?
I’d have though the real question was whether the 45% figure had any basis at all. Here’s a study on the matter in The Lancet, which finds 17% of male military personnel in the UK record criminal offences over their lifetimes, or 11% for violent offences, and that deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan had no effect on the latter independent of other factors.
————————————————————————
I have scan read the Lancet article. There doesn’t seem to be a control group for comparison used init. So we can’t tell how there 17% would compare to the rate of similar demographic weighted sample from the civilian public. It is lower than the general rate but that includes the unemployed and others init that wouldn’t be used to compare with fully employed military personnel in a proper comparison. The data that probably best suggests what may be the case here is Figure 3 in the article. Which shows the rate of violent crimes by combatant and non-combatant military positions. I will assume that non-combatant military positions are jobs like cooks, doctors, nurses, engineers, mechanics, supply truck drivers etc. So overall a fairly broad range of jobs. So this is probably the best we will get for a control group that may match that of general civilians. So in the data fig 3 it appears combatant military positions are around 3 to 4 times more likely to offend violently than non-combatants. I also note in the discussion they put this down to those who choose combatant roles as more likely to be more aggressive people who are also more likely to display risk taking behaviour also. This seems to be backed up by the findings that being in a brutal war makes no difference in their rate of criminality. Suggesting the main determinant of criminality is not due to what they experience in the job but the sort of people who went for the job in the first place.
While it appears that the 17% figure is a combined figure which includes both non-combatant and combatant military. I could not find a figure in my scan reading of combatants alone. Though the data presented in Figure 3 suggest it would be significantly higher than 17%.
FUBAR says:
‘40 years since the AUD was floated in the face of massive opposition from Unions and the Left’
Priceless! 🙂
“Over the next few months, the newly appointed Governor of the Reserve Bank, Bob Johnston, openly encouraged Hawke and Keating to move to a floating exchange rate.
“However, there was *opposition from the Treasury Department* whose head, *John Stone*, believed that once the currency was floated the dollar might increase in value, which would reduce Australian exports and stall the economic recovery that was getting underway.
“The float was supported by shadow Treasurer John Howard. But the *Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Peacock*, the *National Party* and *some of Keating’s Labor colleagues* opposed the float, just as *Malcolm Fraser* had when as prime minister it was proposed to him two years previously.”
https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/australian-dollar-floated#:~:text=In%201983%20the%20newly%20elected,money%20within%20world%20currency%20markets.