The final poll of the year from YouGov, which will return next year as a regular three-weekly series, finds Labor with a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred based on preference flows from the previous election, despite recording their lowest primary vote of any poll since the election. Labor is down two points on the last poll to 29%, their day saved to some extent by a two point rise for the Greens to 15%. The Coalition is up one to 37%, while One Nation is steady on 7%. Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up one to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 48-34 to 46-36. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1555.
I have recently started adding YouGov and RedBridge Group polling to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which doesn’t seem to have caught all the way up with the recent slide in Labor’s fortunes. In the case of the earlier three YouGov polls (though not yet the latest one), the poll data feature incorporates an array of unpublished breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators.
Is Albo going to rein in Roger Cook …??
C@t, I don’t think you have the requisite sober judgement and impartiality of mind to play board policeman. Grime’s assertion that there is “a long line of middle eastern nut jobs who blossom in the lucky country” was, at best, contentious, and whatever basis there was to propose that an apology was in order (none, in my opinion) went out the window when he called BW a dickhead.
Kirsdarke says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 6:03 pm
The warmies must be devo – hoping for Cat 5 to wipe some humans off the face of the earth and it didn’t eventuate.
FUBAR @ 5.41
I challenge your assumption re Corman that his support by his LNP colleagues was in “Australia’s interest”.
The “National Interest” and “Australia’s Interest” are just convenient cover stories for “self interest” or of helping a mate/political enemy leave the scene.
I am surprised you would use this cliche.
However, as long as you are happy to view the travels of the likes of Albanese and others in the current government within the same concept of Australian/National interest I will hardly be able to accuse you of the rank hypocrisy associated with many LNP supporters….
I would be interested in you finding just how Corman’s new job was of such vital importance to Oz in your eyes.
Your comment about SEEK is just plain silly….
Rex,
It’s ironic that a large number of the new projects being held up are ones for all the materials for all the ruinables – lithium and rare earths, oh and that dastardly uranium. You’d prefer they were mined in the pristine methodology employed in West Africa, no doubt.
@FUBAR
Honestly I’m happy for this news that the cyclone won’t be as bad as it could have been.
I remember the situation back in 2011 with Cyclone Yasi bearing down on North Queensland. Had it hit Cairns or Townsville directly it would have destroyed either city, but instead by some miracle it hit the coast at a point exactly between them, so that both only got damaged by the sides of it.
Of course it wasn’t good news for the towns between them, that was terrible, but the worst case scenario of another Cyclone Tracy event that destroyed Darwin did not occur again. And it seems that Jasper might not be as deadly as predicted, which is a good thing.
FUBAR,
According to Wikipedia:
So, Barry Marshall is a PHYSICIAN, NOT a PHYSICIST.
PHYSICIANS generally do not have a lot to do with the differential equations needed to understand how climate change works. And in fact, it is likely that Barry Marshall did only one year of physics, 1st year, specifically tailored to not use much in the way of any calculus.
He has a Nobel prize in Medicine: I am sure he is an expert in whatever very narrow field of research he pursues, but that tells us noting about what he knows about physics or climate science.
We have a fantastic visitor, Frank Wilczek who gave a colloquium about Physics Education, an area he researched with his wife. He asked us to listen to him, not because he had a Nobel prize in physics (2004), but because he had done the research in physics education.
He told us that after you win a Nobel prize, people ask for your comments about all sorts of things, assuming you are now an authority on everything.
He has a great biography: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2004/wilczek/facts/
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2004/wilczek/biographical/
p.s. Itza when looking at back posts I did see a comment about your struggles with Physis 1C(?), later Physics DMV? I also heard from my aunt about the course, although she probably preceeded you by some 10 years.
All I can say is that we did not teach physics very well back then – arcane language, no attempt to help students actually understand physical principles in an intuitive way.
But at least back then Medical students did physics. Now they do not.
I had two really lovely Medical students who came to do 1st year physics over summer, in 2003, as an extra, non-credit course. They were from Nigeria I think, really lovely men, and their government was paying for their medical degree.
They were planning on working in the regions, and would need to take their own medical monitoring devices (ECG, EEG, ultrasound etc.). They would need to interpret the results themselves, and if the equipment did not work, they would need to fix it themselves. I hope they did really well.
And, then there are the engineers. When Engineering at Sydney University decided that engineers would no longer do 2nd year physics, Harry Messel quipped that “Not only will engineers now not know why their bridges fall down, they will not even know why they don’t fall up”.
Douglas and Milko @ #1557 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:18 pm
I’ll bet we offered them permanent residency 🙁
Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 6:18 pm
I didn’t say he was a physicist. He is a scientist and I was making the point that he was told he was wrong until he proved he was right – using the scientific method.
Tricot says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 6:14 pm
My comment re Corman was not about support from the LNP – it was about support from the ALP.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/mathias-cormann/anthony-albanese-confirms-labor-will-back-mathias-cormanns-nomination-for-key-oecd-position-ng-b881705180z
P1
No, not at all. They did not want it.
They were really committed to making a difference for their people.
I wish I remembered their names so I could follow their career. But, I taught around 1500 students over the course of a year – the big first year ones regularly had lecture of over 400 students.
I presume you’re referring to double blind randomised control trials Fu.
In the first instance, Professor Marshall did not do a double blind RCT to demonstrate the link between ulcers and H. Pylori. Swallowing a broth of H. Pylori, waiting until he showed symptoms and then treating those symptoms with antibiotics is not a double blind RCT.
As it happens I did a few years of medicine (dropped out). I remember very well the day this came up. Our prof started off with wtte of, “you know how we’ve been drumming the scientific method into you, yeah well, sometimes you just know……”
Please enlighten us as to how one would conduct an experiment to show that current changes in the climate are not due human activity.
I’ll wait…..
FUBAR
You really have no idea what the scientific method entails.
Do you think Einstein was wrong about his General Theory of Relativity because he could not do double blind trials? Do you say therefore General Relativity is “unproven”.
Do you think Neils Bohr, Heisenberg, Schrödinger etc. were wrong because they could not do double blind trials? (Actually I think the ethics committee might have had a problem with Schrödinger’s experimental plan.)
Do you think the theory of quantum mechanics is unproven.
Please answer these questions, so I know your base level of understanding of how the scientific method works, and we can discuss further.
Ha ha ha ha you think how Marshall showed the link was the scientific method.
And you dropped that clanger *while* I was composing my post. Too good.
Oh my lord. You are a walking talking example of how a little bit of knowledge can be dangerous.
This could be the best news so far…
Oh dear..
The Supreme Court is ACTING FAST!
SCOTUS just GRANTED the Special Counsel’s motion for expedited review of the petition from Jack Smith regarding Trump’s ‘immunity’ claims.
No predicting outcome.. could be all over by Christmas..
PS..
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-supreme-court-asked-to-rule-on-whether-trump-has-immunity-from-prosecution/ar-AA1lm8bl
Argy-Barge,
SNAP!!!!
Barry Marshall, who grew up in Kalgoorlie, was the discoverer of the infective aetiology of gastric ulcers – not arcane nor a narrow field but one that has changed the lives of (b)millions.
BUT, it was largely a serendipitous discovery and not after years at the benchtop. At one stage he infected himself with the suspected bacteria and did indeed develop an ulcer.
I think it could be argued that, other than Maidread Corrigan and Betty Williams, he did the least “hard yards” than any other Noble Laureate. However, as is the nature of the Noble prizes, he now gives expert opinions on all sorts of matters outside of Gastroenterology. I am sure RH Wombat can give further details and might find me too cynical.
I see everyone got there before me.
Argy-Bargy says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 6:34 pm
I know the full story – once he showed it worked on himself this opened up the trials that confirmed it.
And Argy-Bargy, nice to accrete another person of the second sex to Poll Bludger 😉
Assuming I am paying attention, and not mistaken.
William Bowe @ #1555 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:06 pm
Oh, okay. I just know that Grime posts rarely, and to be slapped down by Boerwar, who’s here every day (as am I, I get that), in this way, in response to an innocuous comment by Grime in reply to me, I thought was beyond the pale:
That would make you a Dutton’s darling and yet another Coalition bastard intent on damaging the fabric of Australian society.
To respond to that and call him a dickhead was justifiable under the circumstances, I thought. Anyway, whatever.
Sceptic @ #1568 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:34 pm
Do you think that may be because they are aware it could cut both ways politically?
D&M
Hitting him with both barrels!
Oh Fu, I should specify that your experiment to test the null hypothesis re: climate change must be a double blind RCT.
Got a feeling this is going to be a long wait…..
William Bowe @ #1552 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:06 pm
Interesting to note that ‘dickhead’ rocks your universe in comparison to BW’s unfounded assertions in his sudden explosion of vitriol this morning and I quote:
‘Because what you are doing is lazy racist dog whistling.
That would make you a Dutton’s darling and yet another Coalition bastard intent on damaging the fabric of Australian society.’
I’ll remember that next time he throws his metaphorical weight around.
Not the first time he’s had a crack at me, because bullies are like that, they do the same thing over and over.Maybe that’s what @Cat picked up on as most fair persons would.
FUBAR @ #1551 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:03 pm
That’s so laughable as a denigration of Atmospheric and Climate Science, as to be ridiculous.
Douglas and Milko:
“Actually I think the ethics committee might have had a problem with Schrödinger’s experimental plan.”
Crosby and Textor, however, were all for it … 🙂
Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 6:33 pm
I know enough about the General Theory of Relativity to know that it doesn’t explain everything and that scientists continue to try and work out how to answer the areas that it doesn’t fully answer.
As we have seen with many areas of theoretical physics such as the Higgs Boson and Gravity Waves the theories are subsequently proven somehow.
And so to theory of human induced climate changed – yes, CO2 has thermal properties that result in the Green House effect – which has historically lagged by 600-800 years – so it hasn’t been a driver in the past – and whether it is actually driving climate change now and the sensitivity of climate to CO2 concentration in the face of other major drivers such as land clearing, clouds and the biggest driver of all – the oceans – is still a theory.
I am enjoying a bit of philosophy of science in the evening 🙂
Griff:
You missed a great PB catch up the other weekend. I hope you’re enjoying your travels wherever you are!
Douglas and Milko @ #1561 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:25 pm
Good.
Grime,
If you want a friend – get a dog.
No dissent from the lefty ecofascist party line here will go unpunished by other posters, your character and intellect ridiculed and any actual real life experience denied.
Fun, isn’t it.
FUBAR, the scientific method is commonly accepted as empirical falsificationism as elucidated by Sir Karl Popper i.e. proving your hypothesis wrong, not right.
I recommend a book called “What is this thing called science?” by Alan Chalmers as a nice introduction.
I think the average fair-minded person would categorise “middle-eastern nutjobs” as straightforward racism.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 6:54 pm
Griff:
You missed a great PB catch up the other weekend. I hope you’re enjoying your travels wherever you are!
__________
I got back on Sunday. It was a shame to miss it!
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 6:42 pm
“Do you think that may be because they are aware it could cut both ways politically?”
No, it’s because the SCOTUS assesses the urgency of all cases it agrees to here based on the relevant facts and acts accordingly.
michaelia Cash is still complaining saying she should have been allowed to block britney higgins compensation payments so she new for a while abbout this wonder whiy renyalds and cash are defending lehrman so heavily maybi the liberals were planing for him to run for parliament and higgins distroyed there plans
FUBAR @ 6.25.
Neatly side-stepped soldier!
The comment that Labor went along with Corman’s new job – once they were in office – that is, post the event and thereby a fait accompli does nothing to attend to my challenge to you to articulate why Corman’s appointment was in the National Interest.
The point is not worth discussing further other than I look forward to your even-handed support of Labor appointees to these type of jobs – and perhaps -with the use of RAAF planes to gain such positions.
All the above for Corman while the rest of us were getting over Covid…Bravo!
it seems Michaelia Cash has searious questions to answer if she mis lead the court she is in trouble if she was a labor mp she would have resigned in 2016
Argy-Bargy, 😉
OC, I think you and I had similar educations. I almost used the word “arcane” w.r.t. Marshall’s research, and then decided it was too strong, and substituted “narrow-field”.
I had to scroll back to make sure I did not use the word “arcane” !
But I agree the research has helped many millions, and he almost certainly deserved the Nobel prize,. however he got there.
But I will defend narrow-field. Because when you are doing research at that intense level, it does not leave a lot of time for much else.
I am really outing myself now, but I am retired, so who cares.
I was giving a colloquium to an audience that included a Nobel prize winner. I talked about how, as the interstellar medium (the gas and dust between the stars) begins to collapse, it cools down.
Now, as any first year physics student knows, if you compress a gas, it heats up (in adiabatic conditions of course – sorry about the big words, but some of you will know). Nobel prize winner asked about my assumption that collapsing gas cools. Before I could bore everyone with the energy radiated away because of the formation of carbon monoxide, and the concentration of ionised Carbon, a colleague piped up and said “because it is the ISM and nothing works as advertised there”.
So, if you want to know how ionised carbon cools the ISM, and other arcane things, I bore you with the explanation for hours.
But I would argue that Barry Marshall knows as much about climate change as I do about quantum chromodynamics.
And it is unfortunate that he assumes that he can talk authoritatively about climate science.
The Coalition has gone out of its way not to piss off Chinese-Australians since they figured out that they had been hurt badly by their aggressive anti-Chinese stance.
Is there such a thing as a Chinese-Australian?
The way I look at it, I think you are either Australian or you are not Australian…
Aaron newtonsays:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:04 pm
michaelia Cash is still complaining saying she should have been allowed to block britney higgins compensation payments so she new for a while abbout this wonder whiy renyalds and cash are defending lehrman so heavily maybi the liberals were planing for him to run for parliament and higgins distroyed there plans
————————————————————————
Maybe he knows where some bodies are buried and if he came clean on that. It would ruin their career. So they are doing everything to make sure he knows they are on his side.
Quote: “A drowning man will clutch at straws”. I suspect Reynolds and Cash wouldn’t want to be those straws and be taken down with him.
Oliver s
😀
Scott says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 3:57 pm
You’re wrong. You wrote:
“Cash said she did not know anything until February 2021
Cash knew in October 2019”
That is potentially defamatory.
There is no evidence that she new before February 2021 and the secretly recorded conversation supports that:
“The Federal Court heard a secretly recorded conversation Ms Higgins took between herself, Senator Cash and Cash’s staffer Daniel Try on February 5, 2021, where they discussed the alleged rape and its effect on Ms Higgins.
Senator Cash can be heard saying early on in the conversation: “What actually happened?””
Be very very careful about making claims in relation to this matter. Stick to the facts.
And that applies to you too – Aaron newton says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:07 pm
Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 7:08 pm
I never said Barry Marshall had anything to do with Climate Science. i was giving an example where the accepted science was actually very wrong – despite having almost universal support.
For someone so clearly intelligent, your interpretation of context is very poor.
FUBAR wishes to distinguish between cold hard Cash facts and the facts that FUBAR disburses with casual abandon.
FUBAR @ #1581 Tuesday, December 12th, 2023 – 6:54 pm
Nah mate 😉 I just come here infrequently to reaffirm what a vacuum this place can be for some posters who seemingly have no real life and have forgotten to take their calming pills on rising.
But yes, long story short,I’m really a cat person and I proudly come from generations of ancestors with socialist leanings.Right back to the bloke locked up by the wallopers for not carrying his miners licence in Bendigo.What did he do?Well instead of getting angry he started his own newspaper and used the power of the pen to stand up for the miners,the poor,the downtrodden,the Chinese and the aboriginals.
btw that newspaper is still published today.
And that’s history today 🙂
Boring War
You support posters posting defamatory things on Poll Bludger?
What goes around etc.
I have two theories about why HPM is protected with such a large amount of money that he can afford to sue for defamation in a case he may not win, despite apparently being penniless.
1) He knows where some bodies are buried, or
2) This is a culture war battle that the Men’s rights (Hanson, Albrectsen), Dutton (asylum seekers are rapists), and the big C fundamentalist Christians (Morrison – my women would never be out working, let alone going for after-work drinks) groupings feel that they cannot afford to lose.
Chicken Don
Why Trump’s cowardice matters
– by RICK WILSON
https://therickwilson.substack.com/p/chicken-don?r=1ne2d&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
”
A quote misapplied to everyone from Winston Churchill to Aristotle to Marcus Aurelius comes from Samuel Johnson and is the origin of one my most important rules in life; “…courage is reckoned the greatest of all virtues; because, unless a man has that virtue, he has no security for preserving any other.”
That’s why I want to encourage people in the pro-democracy fight ahead to keep a key fact close to their hearts:
Donald Trump is a coward.
A chickenshit.
He’s a yellow cur, running from, not to, the sounds of the guns.”
well we do know cash new a lot more then Caty Gallagher but it didnt stop thethe liberals triying to get her sacked over a leakedtext mesigemaybi the so called mean girls are renyolds and cash