Resolve Strategic: LNP 37, Labor 33, Greens 12 in Queensland

A relatively positive poll result for state Labor in Queensland, plus a round-up of preselection news from the state over the past month.

The Brisbane Times has published one of its occasional slow-release polls on Queensland state voting intention that combine results from Resolve Strategic’s monthly polling, in this case going back to September with a combined sample of 940. Just as Resolve Strategic’s federal polling has become noted for being more favourable for Labor than its competitors, this one tells a relatively positive story for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government, putting the LNP ahead of Labor by 37% (down one on the mid-year aggregation) to 33% (up one) with the Greens up a point to 12% and One Nation steady on 8%. This suggests a fairly even split on two-party preferred, for which Resolve Strategic does not provide a result. However, LNP leader David Crisafulli now leads Palaszczuk 39-34 as preferred premier, out from 37-36, and Palascszczuk’s “net likeability” rating has slipped further from minus 15 to minus 17, while Crisafulli is up from plus seven to plus nine.

Developments since the previous Queensland state post relating to an election due for October 26 next year:

• Rockhampton MP Barry O’Rourke announced last month that he will retire at the election. Biomedical engineer Craig Marshall had expressed interest in preselection, and has the support of O’Rourke and the Old Guard sub-faction of the Right. As The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column puts it, O’Rourke “pulled a swifty, and didn’t let on publicly that he was retiring until after the expressions of interest for candidates closed”, a move that granted the “inside running” to Marshall.

• The Australian reports the only Labor incumbent facing a preselection challenge is Stafford MP Jimmy Sullivan, who is up against Susan Lynch, “a one-time staffer of former Stafford incumbent Anthony Lynham”.

• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail reports the LNP has again preselected Marty Hunt, who held the seat from 2017 until his defeat in 2020 by Labor’s Rob Skelton, as its candidate for the Sunshine Coast seat of Nicklin. Gold Coast councillor Hermann Vorster has been confirmed as the candidate for Burleigh, which will be vacated with the retirement of LNP incumbent Michael Hart.

• The Australian reported last month that polling for the Together public sector union showed Labor on track to lose its three Townsville seats of Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa to the LNP and the inner Brisbane seats of Bulimba, Cooper and McConnel to the Greens, but maintaining leads in the Brisbane marginals of Aspley and Mansfield and the seats in and around Cairns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

57 comments on “Resolve Strategic: LNP 37, Labor 33, Greens 12 in Queensland”

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  1. Coal mining tax in Qld will see miners pay 20% for prices above $175 a tonne, 30% for prices above $225 a tonne, and 40% for prices above $300 a tonne. Already an unprecedented $12 billion budget surplus, the largest ever recorded by an Australian state.

    A $550 electricity bill rebate for all and staggering $19bn investment in renewables. Three new hospitals, heaps of free TAFE.
    Polls say difficult for Labor, you wonder why.
    Greens need to take it to Crucifooli because it will be easy for him to flog off numerous renewable projects. L/NP love coal in Qld.

  2. So it looks like that James Ashby is running in the next Queensland election as the One Nation candidate for Keppel.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/qld-election-2024-pauline-hansons-one-nations-james-ashby-to-contest-keppel/news-story/51ded0a3650766aa1e00855640ace5b8

    Firebrand One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s right-hand man will contest a key Central Queensland seat at next year’s state election.
    Controversial adviser James Ashby has put his hand up to run as One Nation’s candidate in the seat of Keppel, which is based in Yeppoon where he lives.
    The electorate of Keppel is currently held by Labor’s Brittany Lauga with a margin of 5.6 per cent, but One Nation has threatened to clinch the seat in recent election cycles — achieving a high of 46.9 per cent on preferences at the 2017 poll.

    The party’s fortunes have ebbed and flowed over the years, with The Courier-Mail’s recent YouGov poll showing One Nation’s primary vote stood at 8 per cent, up from 7.1 per cent in 2020.

  3. Premiers retirement is unlikely to shift anything. While I dispute the poll having an LNP lead, I don’t dispute the LNP being the frontrunners for the election. I suspect the LNP are hovering around 40% right now and Labor around 30%, TPP around 53.5-46.5% to the LNP.

  4. I think Anna’s retirement was predictable. She has done her job, and a mighty job it was. But, Politics wait for no one and her time had come.

    it was obvious she had run her race and was getting tired, like we all do. Her time has come and she has picked the right time at the end of the year to announce her retirement. Caucus meets next Friday to pick a new Premier.

    I hope it is Steven Miles. He at least, still has the fire in the belly to take on Cristafoolery head on.

    Pop corn sales should get aboost.

  5. It is a shame to lose one of the most senior female leaders in the country, leaving Jacinta Allen on her own but it is time.

    I wonder how much of this is leaping before being pushed, however.

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