The Brisbane Times has published one of its occasional slow-release polls on Queensland state voting intention that combine results from Resolve Strategic’s monthly polling, in this case going back to September with a combined sample of 940. Just as Resolve Strategic’s federal polling has become noted for being more favourable for Labor than its competitors, this one tells a relatively positive story for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government, putting the LNP ahead of Labor by 37% (down one on the mid-year aggregation) to 33% (up one) with the Greens up a point to 12% and One Nation steady on 8%. This suggests a fairly even split on two-party preferred, for which Resolve Strategic does not provide a result. However, LNP leader David Crisafulli now leads Palaszczuk 39-34 as preferred premier, out from 37-36, and Palascszczuk’s “net likeability” rating has slipped further from minus 15 to minus 17, while Crisafulli is up from plus seven to plus nine.
Developments since the previous Queensland state post relating to an election due for October 26 next year:
• Rockhampton MP Barry O’Rourke announced last month that he will retire at the election. Biomedical engineer Craig Marshall had expressed interest in preselection, and has the support of O’Rourke and the Old Guard sub-faction of the Right. As The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column puts it, O’Rourke “pulled a swifty, and didn’t let on publicly that he was retiring until after the expressions of interest for candidates closed”, a move that granted the “inside running” to Marshall.
• The Australian reports the only Labor incumbent facing a preselection challenge is Stafford MP Jimmy Sullivan, who is up against Susan Lynch, “a one-time staffer of former Stafford incumbent Anthony Lynham”.
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail reports the LNP has again preselected Marty Hunt, who held the seat from 2017 until his defeat in 2020 by Labor’s Rob Skelton, as its candidate for the Sunshine Coast seat of Nicklin. Gold Coast councillor Hermann Vorster has been confirmed as the candidate for Burleigh, which will be vacated with the retirement of LNP incumbent Michael Hart.
• The Australian reported last month that polling for the Together public sector union showed Labor on track to lose its three Townsville seats of Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa to the LNP and the inner Brisbane seats of Bulimba, Cooper and McConnel to the Greens, but maintaining leads in the Brisbane marginals of Aspley and Mansfield and the seats in and around Cairns.
For Peter Dutton’s coal to nuclear energy plan to work he needs governance of Qld’s state-controlled power stations. To do that he needs LNP colleague David Crisafulli as premier. That’s why Qld is heading for a nuclear election in 2024.
https://nofibs.com.au/queenslands-nuclear-election
This article serves as a useful timeline.
Cyclone Jasper is expected to grow into a big one, and is currently heading toward the Queensland coast.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Hopefully it misses, but currently it’s a big disaster threat that could hit next week. People on the coast should keep their eyes on updates about it.
[‘…this one tells a relatively positive story for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government’…’]
With a surplus of around 1oB, Palaszczuk has splashed the cash. Most love her up here – eg, up to a $1052 rebate on electricity. Meanwhile, dear LOTO Crisafulli is as charismatic as dear young Lawrence, who thought that ironing his clothes half-naked may’ve been a turn-on – now the mayor of somewhere in the outback.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2004-01-21/topless-pose-just-a-bit-of-fun-springborg-says/122832
“Meanwhile, dear LOTO Crisafulli is as charismatic as dear young Lawrence …”
I’m on the same page as you on that, Mavis … but nevertheless:
“Crisafulli now leads Palaszczuk 39-34 as preferred premier … Palascszczuk’s “net likeability” rating has slipped …to minus 17, while Crisafulli is up … to plus nine.”
It’s a funny old world.
Oliver Sutton:
Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 10:04 pm
’m on the same page as you on that, Mavis … but nevertheless:
[‘“Crisafulli now leads Palaszczuk 39-34 as preferred premier … Palascszczuk’s “net likeability” rating has slipped …to minus 17, while Crisafulli is up … to plus nine.”]
To be frank, I think it’s better for Labor to sink in Queensland. Pepsy.
Anyone know what the TPP would be on this?
@Asha – the 2PP on that is basically 50/50!
Yet if you listen to the MSM it is 75/25 in favour of the LNP.
We really have to get the partisans out of the media.
@Asha
According to Kevin Bonham, he estimates that at 50-50, with a slight edge to the LNP.
Kirk, I don’t get how it gives the LNP a slight advantage, the left get to 45% if you give Labor and Greens. One Nation on top of LNP doesn’t get you close to 50, so if you apply preference flows from previous election it should be 51% for Labor.
Don’t get how the LNP are in front on those primaries, doesn’t stack up. The maths isn’t there.
Daniel:
Wednesday, December 6, 2023 at 1:39 am
[‘Kirk, I don’t get how it gives the LNP a slight advantage, the left get to 45% if you give Labor and Greens. One Nation on top of LNP doesn’t get you close to 50, so if you apply preference flows from previous election it should be 51% for Labor.’]
Please stop enhancing your position with contingency.
Daniel: “One Nation on top of LNP doesn’t get you close to 50”
Don’t forget the happy little Kattermites (“as right as right can be”).
Robert Katter III and his cronies draw a non-negligible vote share in the Deep North.
Yeah this is 50/50. So this is where we are at the end of a year where our local Murdochracy organ, (which for those that don’t know would be Australias most shamelessly right wing partisan almost to a comical extent) has attacked AP relentlessly. The crime situation in FarQ is the only real issue that they have had to batter Labor with, other that attacking AP personally ( Murdochracy loves attacking non LNP women) The reality is though that Qlds economy is going great – low unemployment, huge budget surplus, massive interstate migration. The only crisis most of us face is concocted in the pages of the courier and over the right wing airwaves ( amplified by the sh*t scared quislings of the ABC). If the LNP is the real deal they should be streets ahead at this stage of the cycle. If you were to imagine a reversal with an ALP opposition 50/50 at this stage the media would be scathing about their chances. Maybe things might head south from here for the ALP and if a poll next year says 54-46 with LNP PV in the 40s well goodnight ALP, but right now I’m thinking that people might just stick with the devil they know especially considering the LNPs ideological attachment to assets sales, public service cuts and that the resource royalty that is paying for across the board electricity subsidies will be axed by the LNP to keep the mining lobby happy.
Oliver: the Katter boys are not as cut and dried as you think. When we were at the lowest ebb with Candoe Newmans brutal treatment of the public service they came along to the union meeting to offer support. They are old fashioned conservatives and would be a thorn in the side of any future LNP government.
Princeplanet @ #13 Wednesday, December 6th, 2023 – 6:23 am
They are pretty much old fashioned Labor with social conservatism (which was also part of old fashioned Labor). They are no friends of the city Liberals or the squatocracy. They will argue with Labor on social issues but deal with them on goodies for their electorates.
Interesting comments on the Resolve Poll. My two bobs worth, 10 months out, is that it will be close with The Greens holding the balance of power.
As a city slicker , I just can’t see the LNP getting its nose in front in the populous SE corner. Yes, I see Townsville going over to the LNP- the continuous hammering , especially in FNQ,, of the ALP by Murdoch’s minions will have an impact , added to by 9, 7 and the gutless ABC.
It’s said that governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them.
In Qlds case, the Opposition has to win all over the State to take power.
Let’s see how they fare in an election battle where the ALP have incumbency, money and a well oiled machine. The LNP may have a more popular leader, but absolutely nothing to offer in the shadow Cabinet stakes- Labor has a mixed bag there also but experience. The shadow cabinet is full of tired old hacks overseen by a fundamentalist group. In the heat of battle, will the old hacks stuff it up? I could see Labor likening that group to the Republicans.
Urban Qlders may want to see some changes but privatisation, subtle changes to social policies, the turfing out of Labors successful mining royalties and Crisafullis unwillingness to give out any promises may make a conservative Party’s chances just that bit harder.
Will AP stay?
Yes. But she’ll say goodbye within 12 months of/ if retaining power.
Watch this space.
Very good summation Gettysburg. We are subjected to an anti ALP barrage just about every day up here. A few years ago the media steered by a our far right aligned Courier and followed by commercial and ABC ( quislings) news services were all concentrating on the economy and how we weren’t the best. Now its youth crime in FarQ because the economy is good. I think things are close but competent opposition would be miles ahead right now but there lies the problem- they are not competent. Throw in the fact that the LNP is synonymous with mass savings, poor service delivery and will try and sell major assets and we have a lot of trepidation on behalf of the general public. We will see how things pan out over the next year but for the LNP not to be a mile ahead right now would have to be of concern to them.
Don’t disagree re the Kattermites’ leanings, Princeplanet (and ajm).
My comment was more about their primary vote percentage than their philosophy.
I suspect (happy to stand corrected) that the majority of KAP voters’ (non-exhausted) preferences end up with the LNP.
PP and Gettysburg,
It was the same down here in Vic last year. The polls had not budged from55/45 in the ALP’s favour between elections yet if you read the papers and MSM there were crowds in the streets baying for Dan’s head on a pike. The Herald-Sun even interviewed the stairs that Chairman Dan fell down for the inside scoop – ok, not interviewed, but had a photo of steps, of a holiday rental, on their front page.
Hung parliament coming your way. Everyone hates Dan. Dan will lose. A sitting LNP member created this situation: “Police have cleared the Victorian upper house MP Catherine Cumming of inciteful behaviour after she told a crowd of protesters that the premier, Daniel Andrews, should be turned into “red mist”.”…..
And what happened? 55/45 at the election and Dan increased his majority. Incidentally the polling (what there is of it) still hasn’t budged.
We have just had a by-election in Dan’s now vacated seat of Mulgrave. The result? The Liberal Party came THIRD behind a cooker candidate in what was bizarrely “a test of Jacinta Allen’s leadership”. Not a word about that.
Meanwhile – Moira Deeming – first on the Libs western metro ticket – is suing her former leader…. for defamation because of comments he made after she spoke at a rally that actual nazis turned up to. Jackboots on the steps of parliament.
The Libs are in complete and total disarray yet according to the MSM they are the moral winners, a wrongly exiled government in waiting.
This is a real problem.
We need genuine reporting, not barracking, not both siding. Whatever happened to analysis?
(I handed out for the Greens all day in election day. One of the cooker candidates at that booth was convinced he was going to win. One of his supporters had a string of garlic around her neck to ward off the evil spirits (ALP supporters). He got about 300 votes across the whole of the electorate. He told me with a straight face that Dan would be tried and exiled within weeks. Exiled! His source: Sky after Dark and the Herald-Sun.)
AP could well lose in Qld. It would not surprise me at all. In fact it would be quite miraculous (in the biblical sense) if she were to win. The ALP have been in power there almost continuously for 35 years. Same as here in Vic. But the media have forgotten their role. They are commentators not players. We will all pay the price for this in the end. It is all very Europa 1938.
MABMW / Kirsdarke:
Cheers!
Well said, MABWM.
But how does the primary votes after preferences lead to an LNP advantage?
Daniel: “But how does the primary votes after preferences lead to an LNP advantage?”
The media chuckleheads may be spinning it that way …
… but the consensus of commenters here — supported by Kevin Bonham — is that the major parties are pretty much line ball on 2PP.
My prediction for the Queensland election is
40 for each the ALP and LP
with 3 katter 1 ON and an independent supporting the LP.
There will be 5 greens who will have no choice but to support the LP to prevent another election.
Thanks MABWM, the media is an absolute disgrace. I read the courier for years, it was right of centre journal but it’s opinion pieces and journalists were mostly fair. It was a sensible newspaper. It moved to the the looney right about the time of candoes ascension in 2013. Murdoch himself was instrumental in removing one of he editors for being ever so slightly critical of Candoe Newmans crazy regime. From there it’s been barracking for the Qld LNP like a one eyed beery Broncoe supporter out at Lang Park . I’m a fairly centrist type guy but they lost me around this time , the coverage was outre!!!. I’m aware of the Victorian situation ,you also had some ratbag radio guys to deal with. The worst thing about this is how weird it is, reality no longer seems to come into the equation. Like Trump in USA when will it be when these guys start believing that Murdochracy Fantasyland is the real thing and that the ALP must be fiddling the process. Murdoch’s business model is a threat to democracy.
Jacobin: that would be fun to watch but I couldn’t see it lasting three days!!!
My prediction for the Queensland election is
40 for each the ALP and LP
with 3 katter 1 ON and an independent supporting the LP.
There will be 5 greens who will have no choice but to support the LP to prevent another election.
@jacobin
I’m no Greens supporter, but the Greens under no circumstances would form with the LNP. And yes I do mean they would force another election. There would be a huge backlash from their voters and membership if they formed government with the LNP. The Greens only pretend to be open minded as leverage to get more concessions out of Labor if they have the balance of power. It doesn’t work very well though, Labor knows the Greens won’t form with the coalition.
I actually think KAP would more likely make up the numbers to Labor to prevent another election. The KAP would want concessions though. And KAP would know the dangers of being linked to the Greens. KAP isn’t completely hostile to Labor. There are many Labor sympathetic voters in Mount Isa that vote KAP. Bob Katter has also had cordial relations with the union movement in recent years.
“There will be 5 greens who will have no choice but to support the LP (sic) to prevent another election.”
Not in this, or any other, lifetime.
PN:
‘I actually think KAP would more likely make up the numbers to Labor to prevent another election.’
As they did in 2015.
‘The KAP would want concessions though.’
As they did in 2015. Three extra parliamentarians.
PN:
‘I actually think KAP would more likely make up the numbers to Labor to prevent another election.’
As they did in 2015.
‘The KAP would want concessions though.’
As they did in 2015. Three extra parliamentarians.
@Oliver
Oliver Independent Peter Wellington formed with Labor for a minority government in 2015. Labor didn’t need KAP numbers to form government. KAP was angry at Wellington for not holding for concessions after grandstanding themselves in the media. KAP also only had two MP’s at the time, later on the LNP’s MP Ray Hopper defected to KAP after disillusionment with the Newman government.
>“There will be 5 greens who will have no choice but to support the LP (sic) to prevent another election.”
While I am a Greens supporter I don’t think they will get close to 5 seats.
> “While I am a Greens supporter I don’t think they will get close to 5 seats.”
I know Union seat polls aren’t to be trusted, but I reckon that the Together poll at least shows that support for the Greens hasn’t completely evaporated after the HAFF debate. Many have wondered whether Bates and Watson-Brown are only there for want of a Teal, but if a significant number of Brisbanites are still buying what the Greens are selling after all that, as well as Sriranganathan’s frequent and fairly radical policy announcments…I don’t think we can completely disregard their chances.
PP says the Murdochracy is a threat to democracy.
He is 100% correct.
The fourth estate’s integrity has died in a ditch and it was the last line of defence.
democracy dies because a couple of very rich men want even more money.
PN, in 2015 Labor won 44 of the 89 seats. Even with Wellington in the chair, they still did not have a majority on the floor.
And then Billy Gordon quit the party (but not parliament) in disgrace.
‘Annastacia Palaszczuk has been forced to reopen negotiations with Katter’s Australian Party – which could include commitments to mandating ethanol in petrol and shifting infrastructure money to the bush – in a desperate bid to cling on to power.’
https://www.afr.com/politics/annastacia-palaszczuk-seeks-support-from-bob-katter-to-stay-in-power-after-billy-gordon-quits-20150330-1mar3i
>but if a significant number of Brisbanites are still buying what the Greens are selling after all that, as well as Sriranganathan’s frequent and fairly radical policy announcments…I don’t think we can completely disregard their chances.
I am thinking they retain their seats and maybe pick up 1.
I can’t see them picking up 3 for the total of 5.
I think the Greens are in with a strong chance of picking up McConnel and Cooper and might make some inroads in Miller, Moggill and Greenslopes, but probably not enough to win them.
Kirsdarke, the Greens led in early counting in Cooper last time around.
> Miller, Moggill and Greenslopes
Thoughts on Bulimba, Kirksdale?
> I can see them retain their seats and maybe pick up 1
Before 2022, I thought they had an even chance at Griffith and next to no chance anywhere else in Qld. After that surprise I’m understandably more bullish in my predictions, but watching as close as I can (which isn’t very) for a that dissipation of support in inner Brisbane. I’m not seeing it yet – but I think the BCC election will tell us everything we need to know about Brisbane at the state election.
@joeldipops
Probably not Bulimba. While it is close to the inner city, Labor’s primary vote is a little bit too high (at 48%) for it to be a realistic target for the Greens (at 13%). The eastern half of Bulimba is very strong for Labor.
The Greens would have better chances at the other three I mentioned, since they’ve got over 20% in them.
The thing about Bulimba at the last state election is that the Greens ran dead with a placeholder candidate. They won’t be this time, and the Greens have a stick to whack Di Farmer with, as the minister responsible for suspending the Human Rights Act which won’t have played well with inner-city Brisbanites who voted for Chandler-Mather.
I dunno what they will get but I suspect it will be much higher than 13%
joeldipops: “… watching as close as I can (which isn’t very) for a that dissipation of support in inner Brisbane.”
Not just ‘inner’ Brisbane.
Federally, Brisbane’s Green swathe extends all the way to the northern extremity of Brisbane, Kedron Brook — the southern boundary of Dutton’s Dickson.
The water is lapping at his door.
Another factor is preference direction. Last time the LNP preferenced the Greens over Labor in all seats, which was part of an obvious strategy to get Jackie Trad out of parliament, but backfired in that it annoyed a lot of LNP-voting people and helped Labor increase its majority elsewhere.
It remains to be seen how the LNP will direct their preferences next time. I recall a factor of the Coalition getting over the line in the Victorian 2010 election was declaring they’ll put the Greens last in preferences.
I don’t know how that would work out in Queensland since full preferential voting has only been a thing since 2017, so it should be a thing of interest to see how it plays out.
“PN, in 2015 Labor won 44 of the 89 seats. Even with Wellington in the chair, they still did not have a majority on the floor.”
@Oliver
Oliver they do according to rules. That’s why Labor were able to form a minority government which they had Peter Wellington as speaker.
“The Speaker cannot vote in a division in the House unless the numbers are equal, and then he or she has a casting vote.”
There are currently 7 crossbenchers (3 KAP, 2 GRN, 1 PHON, 1 IND) that’s a lot. Given the polling the prospect of a hung parliament is a real one.
All the crossbenchers benefit from Compulsory Preferential Voting.
If the LNP don’t win a majority in their own right, they will not be able to introduce Optional Preferential Voting (OPV) for future state elections.
OPV would improve the LNP chances at future elections by 3-4%, and would make some inner-city seats with a moderately-high green vote unwinnable for anyone but the LNP (with OPV about half of all voters don’t preference). As well
as meaning the Greens could lose their two
seat to the LNP.
@Nobody
I’m not sure I can agree with you on that about the Greens losing their seats in OPV. The Greens came first on the primary vote in both Maiwar and South Brisbane in 2020, and I doubt OPV would have changed the outcome of the final preference count.
Other than that, yes, the return of OPV would mean that in most of the other close Labor-LNP seats, a lot of Green votes would exhaust and make life easier for the LNP. But the opposite could also be true where the local politics are dominated by how minor right wing parties vote. Mirani, Thuringowa and Hinchinbrook are examples where it got pretty close at times in the past couple of elections, although Katter’s party got pretty well established in Hinchinbrook in 2020.
Bulimba seems like such a tough prospect on paper. It does not stand out on any demographics generally regarded as strong for the Greens. It has high levels of affluence but average levels of renting, education and age distribution.
https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/bulimba
There are multiple other divisions that I would even rate in front of it as Greens targets:
Greenslopes given its proximity to the universities and high proportion of university students.
Miller as it is on paper very similar to Maiwar.
Even Clayfield would go in front of Bulimba because of its high proportion of renters and flats. Greens will be stressing their rental policies at the election. It is also a very marginal division on 2CP which makes it ripe for sliding straight into 1st on the back of preference distributions.
All that being said, the most obvious target will be McConnel, arguably one of the most high profile races of the contest. Grace Grace will do well to hold on even given her high profile portfolio.
1st highest proportion of High School Completion in Queensland: 72.64%
1st highest proportion of Age 25 – 34 in Queensland: 31.50%
1st highest proportion of Dwellings With No Motor Vehicles in Queensland: 22.88%
1st highest proportion of Flats & Apartments in Queensland: 86.31%
1st highest proportion of Renters in Queensland: 66.74%
2nd highest proportion of No Religion in Queensland: 49.60%
3rd highest proportion of Age 35 – 44 in Queensland: 16.55%
3rd highest proportion of Age 20 – 24 in Queensland: 12.83%
https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/mcconnel
Cooper is also obviously another very good shout, many of the booths at the previous election had the Greens 1st on first-preferences.
The prospect that renters will back the Greens has yet to be tested at an election since they really started targetting them. Anecdotally I know non Labor-tragics squarely in their target demo that definitely won’t vote for them because they delayed the HAFF etc.
Well, I had a look at the polling booth results for Bulimba in 2020 and compared them with Griffith in 2022 and there was a noticeable swing to the Greens in those that overlapped, namely Cannon Hill and Murarrie, so I suppose a surprise could be on the books there.
There’s also the fact that the Greens are polling at 12% at the moment compared to 9.5% at the 2020 election (+2.5) and Labor are polling at 33% compared to 39.5% at the election (-6.5) so that may amplify results in Inner Brisbane for the Greens.
Am I wrong here, but is there not a You Gov poll out today with a 51.4 to 48.6 2pp to the Libs. I hear that Kevin Bonham has some of it on his site.
@Al Pal
I haven’t heard of anything like that. Kevin Bonham’s site’s latest update is that the federal aggregate 2pp vote is 51.4-48.6 to Labor, and there’s no other thing about YouGov polling Queensland at a state level.
This thread earlier discussed the possibility of an ALP-Katters coalition/deal/pact of some sort after the next state election – assuming a minority situation. Consideration ought to be given that Grandpa Katter was a former ALP member of the Curry branch and was always sympathetic to AWU causes. And the succeeding generations of Katter Kids were brought up to think likewise. Although Grandpa chose the wrong side in the 1950s split, the Katters retain some begrudging respect for labor values and could be relied upon to support AP at a price. In that eventuality, I feel a dam coming on…and a resurrected railway, a coal mine here and tax breaks there – all in the cause of northern development.