Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 43 (open thread)

Three new federal voting intention results together with Newspoll produce Labor leads of around 53-47 to 54-46.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll find both parties down on the primary vote, Labor by two points to 31% and the Coalition down one to 32%, with the Greens up one to 15%, One Nation up two to 7% and undecided steady at 6%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is unchanged at 51% to 43%, with the remaining 6% undecided. The poll also features monthly leadership ratings which give Anthony Albanese his weakest numbers since the election, down two on approval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 43%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 43%.

The poll records the no lead on the Indigenous Voice out from 47-43 to 48-42, which is at least a slower rate of decline for yes than other polls of late. Yes includes 30% for hard yes and 12% for soft, with no respectively at 41% and 7%. Small-sample state breakdowns have yes leading 45-44 in New South Wales, and trailing 44-43 in Victoria, 58-35 in Queensland, 58-34 in Western Australia and 45-37 in South Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1151.

Two further sets of voting intention were released yesterday, one being the weekly Roy Morgan, which has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, in from 53.5-46.5 last week. Labor must have done quite a bit better on respondent-allocated preferences than last week, as they are down one-and-a-half on the primary vote 33.5% with the Coalition up two-and-a-half to 37.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

The other is from RedBridge Group, which had Labor leading 54.1-45.9 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. There is no indication of sample size of field work period that I’m aware, but an accompanying graphic offers breakdowns by gender, age, AEC location category, education, income and language (English or non-English). (UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday from a sample of 1001.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,093 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 43 (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 22
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  2. This post from Charles late last night bears re-posting:

    Charles (AnonBlock)
    Tuesday, September 5th, 2023 – 10:20 pm
    Comment #945
    Latest federal Redbridge poll has Labor still comfortably ahead in 54-46 2PP with primaries Labor 37, Coalition 36, Green 13, others 14. Their last poll had primaries at 38-32 to Labor. Only groups Coalition in front is age 65+, less than year 12 and earning over 200k.

    My view is that the Coalition has got a polling bump because of their support of the No campaign. Despicable politics over better lives for indigenous people. Beneath contempt.

    I see Troy Bramston has been scathing of the Coalition and the No camp in today’s Australian.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-no-camp-is-playing-politics-and-offers-nothing-to-improve-the-lives-of-indigenous-australians/news-story/7ca581ef15070ac3513f021c41081e6e

    Not usually a fan of Joe Hildebrand’s work but he wrote an intelligent article the other day explaining the reasons why doubters can vote yes and then get on with their lives.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/reasons-you-can-just-vote-yes-and-get-on-with-your-lives/news-story/8a6c51eff216461404389264cd4d16a9

    Then you have arch-conservative Chris Kenny on Sky News over the past few weeks giving the no camp both barrels. Also this from him in The Australian.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/indigenous-voice-to-parliament-busting-eight-myths-of-the-no-campaign/news-story/817723cfd407942d44da948d437e6b8c

  5. I doubt the increase in coalition vote is to do with the voice.

    The coalition, one nation, green and other votes all seem to be trending up.

    Labor is failing, and their voters have to go somewhere.

    Albo needs to stop being afraid of “if I do anything, Murdoch will oppose it and I’ll lose votes”. Ask Andrews, Barr and Palaszschuk if they give a shit that the feral media opposes everything they do

  6. I remain sceptical. The sentiment and feeling has been there before, yet nothing has changed. The Liberal party is a party by men, of men and for men, first and foremost.

    Nominations have just opened in a raft of federal seats for the next election, which means members will get their say in preselections. Historically, we have been quite woeful when it comes to picking women, but this time I have faith.

    If you’ve read any of my work, you’ll know I have been frank in my disappointment at the lack of support for Coalition women (unsurprisingly, not to everyone’s glee), so I hope it means something when I say that things truly feel like they’re improving (seriously).

    For the first time in a long time, I feel like women in the party aren’t having to convince members that the public wants our side of politics to take women seriously, and that we can help, not hinder, their attempts to win. Perhaps most exquisitely, I am hearing less and less of entitled men saying “merit” in every conversation about a female candidate.

    But all of this is just a feeling. A hunch. The honest conversations and gentle steering will mean nothing if our members don’t put pen to paper and actually vote for women in our coming preselections. The party said it could fix our poor gender representation without quotas. Now it’s time for members to put their money where their mouth is.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-world-wants-to-support-women-but-is-the-liberal-party-ready-20230904-p5e1tn.html

  8. Voice Endeavour
    Agree with you

    the Lib/nats combined primary vote have been 36% or lower after the 2023 federal election and have not really improved since the voice debate has started, Lib/nats and their propaganda media units have got no political advantage

  10. Labor primary vote hasnt taken much of a hit either according to the opinion polling , pubic knows there is a separation of the referendum and governing , hence why there has been no so-called backlash on Labor if the referendum doesn’t get passed

  11. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 6:10 am
    Gee, the ‘slip slidin’ didn’t last for long!
    ———————

    C@T

    Despite the same characters always hyperventilating, the myriad of challenging issues and white noise, the polls continue to show Labor’s figures having improved from the last election.

  12. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 6:44 am
    A party by men, for men and of men.
    ————-

    There are 2 or 3 Dutton cronies looking like they are a bit of embarrassed over this stunt

  13. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has demanded the prime minister explain himself after Anthony Albanese clarified an answer he gave in Parliament about the government’s block of additional Qatar Airways flights. Albanese clarified he had discussed the move with the chief executive of Virgin on July 13 — days before the Qatar block was made public. “In that call the chief executive made representations relating to air services arrangements with Qatar. During that discussion, I did not know that the transport minister had made a decision on July 10 2023 – a detail that has only been advised to me after question time today,” Albanese said. He had earlier repeated his assertion he did not speak to Joyce before a decision was made.
    “The prime minister’s story just doesn’t add up and every ­answer gives rise to more questions. The public needs to know what he was asked for, his response and what was discussed. His version of when he and others learned of the decision doesn’t add up,” Dutton told the Australian. Luckily, as Guardian Australia reports, the opposition and the crossbench have teamed up to vote for a Senate inquiry into the Qatar block, so it’s possible we’ll learn more soon.

  14. Important to note , according to Bludgertrack the LNP Primary has crossed the ALP Primary for the first time since the election.

    The trend is not your friend here either. If the trend doesnt reverse the ALP primary will be lower than the election and the LNP primary higher.

    The aftermath of the Voice will be very telling as to the outcome.

    My best guess is an ALP minority government supported by the teals. This ALP Government is most likely about 25% through its term in office.

  15. JACK SMITH TELLS JUDGE TRUMP IS TRYING TO PREJUDICE JURY POOL

    Smith and DOJ prosecutors are arguing that the more time is given, the more opportunity he will have to contaminate the jury pool, which is exactly what Trump is trying to do in his appearances and social media posts. It might be completely impossible to put a gag order on a presidential candidate who is leading a party primary, but massive fines and sanctions have shut Trump up before. Trump is abusing his campaign platform to potentially tamper with witnesses and contaminate jury pools.

    Jack Smith knows what Trump is trying to do, and he is pointing it out to the court so that it can be stopped.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2023/09/05/jack-smith-tells-judge-trump-is-trying-to-prejudice-jury-pool.html

  16. Random thoughts

    – The Right have changed their tune on Alan Joyce since he locked out the unions in 2011. Back then he was their darling (aside: had unions attempted something similar, for example a black ban, the Right would have been frothing at the mouth with rage).
    – Is the “No” campaign a rehearsal for the next election campaign? Or campaign against any reform the Albanese Government attempts? A tuning up the Noise Machine as it were?
    – Why are most of the men in the photo (Confessions @6:44) looking to their left? Why are several pointing to their upper left?

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Amelia Maguire and Patrick Hatch chronicle Qantas’s week from hell.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/crash-landing-qantas-week-from-hell-20230905-p5e22m.html
    Anne Hyland tells new CEO Vanessa Hudson what to do in order to handle the turbulence.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/to-handle-the-turbulence-here-s-what-qantas-ceo-vanessa-hudson-needs-to-do-20230905-p5e255.html
    Paul Kelly says that the Prime Minister is stuck with the baggage of the Qantas storm.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/the-prime-minister-is-stuck-with-baggage-of-qantas-storm/news-story/8a8ff29fdaca648d05a8d0d85616e2a0?amp
    And The Australian says Anthony Albanese is flying blind in the Qatar flights storm.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/anthony-albanese-flies-blind-in-qatar-flights-storm/news-story/dfa5f992ce280246059c32d765469cfe?amp
    The Qantas board makes a martyr of Joyce, but no one buys it, writes Elizabeth Knight who says that instead of acknowledging and taking accountability for being the most complained-about company in Australia, and one that allegedly misled and deceived its customers, the board has offered hearty praise for Joyce.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-board-makes-a-martyr-of-joyce-but-no-one-buys-it-20230905-p5e21k.html
    Elaia Visontay lays out five big issues that are plaguing Qantas that its board must address.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/06/qantas-in-crisis-alan-joyce-has-departed-but-the-airline-still-has-plenty-of-baggage
    Despite a record of poor business conduct over recent years, the Federal Government has made efforts to protect Qantas’ status as Australia’s premier airline, writes Binoy Kampmark.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/flying-kangaroo-protection-racket-in-our-national-interest,17871
    From higher prices to poorer service, former ACCC chairman Rod Sims explains how a lack of competition damages Australia.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/05/lack-of-competition-damages-australia-economy-rod-sims
    Qantas flies high on scant competition and regulation – and consumers pay the price, argues Matt Grudnoff.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/05/qantas-competition-regulation-consumers
    The jettisoning Alan Joyce came too late to help the reputation of Qantas declares the SMH’s editorial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/jettisoning-alan-joyce-came-too-late-to-help-the-reputation-of-qantas-20230905-p5e22u.html
    Natassia Chrysanthos reports that the Coalition has declined to condemn a rowdy protest by pharmacists in the parliament despite a pointed rebuke from the speaker that the protesters’ jeers and swearing during question time was “very serious and concerning” and a reflection of the MPs who may have invited them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-refuses-to-condemn-jeering-pharmacy-protesters-despite-speaker-s-rebuke-20230905-p5e26d.html
    The Grattan Institute’s Peter Breadon writes that pharmacists want to have their cake, eat it, and get another cake for later. He says it’s time for the Pharmacy Guild to put exaggerated claims behind them and focus on constructive proposals for a bigger, better role for pharmacies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pharmacists-want-to-have-their-cake-eat-it-and-get-another-cake-for-later-20230905-p5e27n.html
    The AFR says Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke will get extraordinary powers under the Albanese government’s industrial relations shake-up, with employer groups citing 32 clauses where he can change the laws to rope in more businesses.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/burke-to-get-extraordinary-powers-in-ir-shake-up-20230905-p5e253
    The Liberal party has been accused of “dirty tactics” by offering non-existent postal vote registration for the referendum, directing would-be voters to a party website to harvest their personal information. Tory Shepherd reports that a “vote no” pamphlet delivered to mail boxes includes a QR code that leads to the same website the party used in last year’s election as part of a move the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) labelled “potentially misleading”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/05/liberals-accused-of-dirty-tactics-over-indigenous-voice-pamphlet-leading-voters-to-site-that-harvests-information
    Much of the Voice Referendum ‘No’ campaign is based on lies and misinformation, spread by a complicit mainstream media, writes Col Jennings.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mainstream-media-helping-to-spread-voice-no-campaign-lies,17869
    Despite harrowing stories from women about having to “shop around” for abortion care even when their pregnancies are unviable, the federal government will not make providing abortion services a condition tied to millions of dollars in funding it allocates to major public hospitals, complains Melissa Davey.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/06/labors-refusal-to-tie-public-hospital-funding-to-full-reproductive-care-condemned-as-outrageous
    The Australian Banking Association has tabled a new code of practice with the corporate regulator, expanding protections for more small businesses – years after the Hayne royal commission first proposed that change – as well as new definitions for vulnerable customers and protections for loan guarantors, explains Paulina Duran.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/new-banking-code-drops-responsible-lending-but-expands-small-business-protections/news-story/9cf9595689222631c6a92b6978db75fb?amp
    Patients are waiting longer than ever before in NSW’s emergency departments, while hospitals and paramedics are treating record numbers with the most life-threatening conditions. Angus Thompson and Laura Banks go into the details.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/record-wait-times-more-sick-patients-nsw-s-health-crisis-laid-bare-20230905-p5e20f.html
    The CBD’s key workers are being forced to live far from their jobs because of a growing shortfall in affordable housing. It’s a problem the City of Melbourne council wants to fix.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/essential-to-our-economy-melbourne-s-plan-to-get-cleaners-retail-staff-and-baristas-into-city-homes-20230905-p5e276.html
    The NSW government has decided there is a case for extending the life of the nation’s largest coal-fired power station to mitigate our energy risk. But the growing risk for NSW actually lies in relying on one near-moribund plant at Eraring in Lake Macquarie for 16 per cent of power generation, explains Tim Buckley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/keeping-the-lights-on-at-eraring-will-only-add-to-nsw-energy-risk-20230905-p5e242.html
    A review of NSW’s energy transition released today says shutting Australia’s largest coal-fired power station, Origin Energy’s Eraring, in 2025 would lead to reliability gaps. Callum Foote reports on a stunning reversal of politics.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/eraring-on-the-side-of-dirty-minns-to-subsidise-australias-biggest-old-coal-clunker/
    We know Australia’s got a problem when a cautious, technical, energy market operator says: “Imminent and urgent investment is needed, or the reliability of the NEM [National Electricity Market] will be at risk.” More broadly, Australia’s energy transition is at risk. But the federal government has the challenge and the opportunity to get things back on track, writes Tony Wood.
    https://johnmenadue.com/power-meltdown-putting-australias-energy-transition-back-on-track/
    Gangs of teenagers are breaking into houses, taking car keys and selling the stolen vehicles. A police strike force has been given special resources to target the thieves.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/police-blitz-on-sydney-teen-car-gangs-after-spate-of-crashes-20230904-p5e1uh.html
    India’s distinct geopolitical perspective will be on display at this week’s G20 leaders summit and, like a Bollywood star, Prime Minister Modi is ready for his close up, writes Matt Wade.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/world-s-low-income-superpower-embraces-its-global-moment-20230905-p5e22a.html
    Anthony Albanese sets forth on a trip to Asia in which most of his summit activities will be entirely useless, but it is nonetheless ­intensely important that he attend, writes Greg Sheridan who says we shouldn’t expect too much in results.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/dont-expect-results-from-anthony-albaneses-asia-tour-but-networking-is-priceless/news-story/143a8d832504be9d7924ded5ca7e9e3a?amp
    Mick Ryan explains why Ukraine’s new strike strategy has Putin on the run.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/why-ukraine-s-new-strike-strategy-has-putin-on-the-run-20230904-p5e1u4.html
    Collapsing schools are the latest sign of a crumbling country – and a lesson in Tory cost-cutting, writes Gaby Hinsliff.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/05/collapsing-schools-crumbling-tory-quick-fixes
    The attorney general of New York state is seeking $20,000 in sanctions against Donald Trump, his adult sons, other defendants and their lawyers, for repeating “frivolous” arguments rejected in court in a $250m civil suit over family business practices. In a filing on Tuesday, Andrew Amer, an assistant to Letitia James, the attorney general, noted repeated rejections of arguments deemed “borderline frivolous even the first-time defendants made them”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/05/new-york-attorney-general-trump-lawsuit

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope, who is in sparkling form!

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding





    Cathy Wilcox

    Fiona Katauskas

    Simon Letch

    Some Glen Le Lievre gifs
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1698949037909856462
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1689494058169925632
    Spooner

    From the US









  18. Morning all. Thanks William for the updated polling.

    The good news is that Labor’s 2pp looks undamaged. The bad news is that that means the Voice campaign has been encountering more problems than just Liberals voting against it.

    As I said yesterday I think the Voice referendum has to be positive to overcome fear of change. The new Your the Voice ad is exactly the right tone- a positive message of what is good about constitutionally recognising Aboriginal people.

  19. Is the “No” campaign a rehearsal for the next election campaign?

    I believe it’s much simpler: No to the Voice was the only viable option available to Dutton if he wanted to keep the leadership.

  20. On the NEM and needed grid upgrades, it can’t happen soon enough.

    Pretty sure I argued for investment in grid upgrades to support more renewable power in SE Australia on this blog back in 2008/09 when the Rudd stimulus was being introduced while this blog was still with Crikey.

    The need for this work is not new.

  21. If this is true
    It doesnt matter to Lib/nats whether it is a natural disaster , election or referendum they will try to trick people giving the lib/nats personal details

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/05/liberals-accused-of-dirty-tactics-over-indigenous-voice-pamphlet-leading-voters-to-site-that-harvests-information

    The Liberal party has been accused of “dirty tactics” by offering nonexistent postal vote registration for the referendum, directing would-be voters to a party website to harvest their personal information.

    A “vote no” pamphlet delivered to mail boxes includes a QR code that leads to the same website the party used in last year’s election as part of a move the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) labelled “potentially misleading”.

    At the election, the Liberals used postal.vote and Labor set up howtovote.org.au to get voters to register for postal votes through them instead of through the AEC. Howtovote.org.au no longer exists while the postal.vote website, run by the Liberal and National parties, prompts people to enter their name and contact details.

  23. I’ve just seen the Yes ad. I agree with Socrates that it’s positive and reaffirming that Australians have embraced Indigenous recognition in many forms in the past, now it’s time to make that recognition official in the constitution.

  24. The legal debate about whether or not former President Donald Trump should be allowed to appear on the 2024 ballot has made its way before the Supreme Court. The court distributed John Castro v. Donald Trump to the justices for conference on Wednesday ahead of the upcoming term, which will begin on October 2. Conference is to take place on September 26 and the case is expected to be decided on or before October 9.
    Castro, a tax attorney running for the Republican nomination next year, sent his petition to the Supreme Court last month, asking the justices to answer whether political candidates can challenge the eligibility of another candidate of the same party running for the same nomination “based on a political competitive injury in the form a diminution of votes.”
    The lawsuit is seeking to argue that Trump should not be allowed to run for the White House based on section three of the 14th Amendment, which disqualifies individuals from holding public office if they have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the United States. While Trump has not been charged with insurrection, Castro is pointing to Trump’s role in the January 6 Capitol riot.

  25. Steve777

    And why can’t all the men in that photo see what everyone else can see, almost all men? Once again drawing attention to their own failing.

  27. the right wing cheared on qantas in 2011 but sincejoice backed the voice and gay maridgedutton is triying to protend qantas isclose to labor it was not labor that gave qantas job keeper

  28. Why are most of the men in the photo (Confessions @6:44) looking to their left? Why are several pointing to their upper left?

    They are jeering in solidarity with the heckling pharmacists.

  30. Cronus @ #NaN Wednesday, September 6th, 2023 – 6:46 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 6:10 am
    Gee, the ‘slip slidin’ didn’t last for long!
    ———————

    C@T

    Despite the same characters always hyperventilating, the myriad of challenging issues and white noise, the polls continue to show Labor’s figures having improved from the last election.

    I had to ROFLMAO at the latest bit of po-faced absolute crap from Lars Von Trier when I read it:

    Lars Von Trier (AnonBlock)
    Wednesday, September 6th, 2023 – 7:10 am
    Comment #NaN
    Important to note , according to Bludgertrack the LNP Primary has crossed the ALP Primary for the first time since the election.

    The trend is not your friend here either. If the trend doesnt reverse the ALP primary will be lower than the election and the LNP primary higher.

    The aftermath of the Voice will be very telling as to the outcome.

    My best guess is an ALP minority government supported by the teals. This ALP Government is most likely about 25% through its term in office.

    😆

    Talk about ‘Wishin’ an’ hopin’ and prayin’ 😀

    Then there was this risible reflection from Voice Endeavour:

    Labor is failing, and their voters have to go somewhere.

    And the facts from Redbridge are these:

    The other is from RedBridge Group, which had Labor leading 54.1-45.9 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%.

    If that’s ‘failing’, I’d love to see what success is! (Actually, I would 😉 )

  31. Confessions @ #NaN Wednesday, September 6th, 2023 – 7:42 am

    Why are most of the men in the photo (Confessions @6:44) looking to their left? Why are several pointing to their upper left?

    They are jeering in solidarity with the heckling pharmacists.

    And that would be the Pharmacists who caved to the government last week. 😐

    So…lots of sound and fury, signifying nothing yesterday. 😐

  32. Elaia Visontay lays out five big issues that are plaguing Qantas that its board must address.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/06/qantas-in-crisis-alan-joyce-has-departed-but-the-airline-still-has-plenty-of-baggage

    Channel 9 just did an interview with Joe Astin about QANTAS and finally started talking about the elephant in the airplane, QANTAS Chairman, Richard Goyder, and the Board. They said that action should have been taken by the board after Joyce’s tenure at QANTAS reached the 10 year mark in 2019. I presume they didn’t because the Coalition were still in power and QANTAS and Joyce were their darlings.

  33. I’m embarrassed to have formerly been a Pharmacist. Glad to have gotten out when I did and before the Liberal goons took over a formerly respected profession.

  34. BREAKING: Former Proud Boys Leader Enrique Tarrio has been sentenced to TWENTY TWO YEARS for seditious conspiracy!

    This is one the strongest January 6 sentences to date.

    Tarrio was convicted of orchestrating a plot for members of his far-right extremist group to attack the U.S. Capitol.

    A jury in Washington, D.C., found Tarrio guilty of seditious conspiracy after hearing from dozens of witnesses over more than three months in one of the most serious cases brought in the stunning attack that unfolded on Jan. 6, 2021.

    It’s a significant milestone for the Justice Department, which has now secured seditious conspiracy convictions against the leaders of the two major U.S. extremist groups.

    THIS IS JUSTICE!

    Is 22 years enough?

    https://twitter.com/CalltoActivism/status/1699178113760927885

  39. FORMER PROUD BOYS LEADER ENRIQUE TARRIO GETS 22 YEARS FOR SEDITIOUS CONSPIRACY

    There is a clear message being sent to Donald Trump’s followers that if they do his bidding and act on his calls for violence, there is a very good chance that they will end up spending a long time behind bars. Reports have been floating around for years that the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers were in communication with the Trump White House before the 1/6 attack. The 1/6 Committee provided evidence that Trump knew his supporters were armed on 1/6 and didn’t care because he knew that they were not going to hurt him.

    Trump has continued to attempt to incite violence after each of his indictments, but his supporters have not shown up. The message appears to have gotten through that attacking the United States government for Donald Trump will get them locked up for a long time.

    Just ask Enrique Tarrio.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2023/09/05/former-proud-boys-leader-enrique-tarrio-gets-22-years-for-seditious-conspiracy.html

  40. phoenixRED and Victoria,
    Donald Trump>Roger Stone>Proud Boys and Oath Keepers

    I’m really, really surprised that Roger Stone hasn’t been charged with anything yet.

  43. Millions of Australians receiving government support will have their payments lifted by as much as $50 a fortnight as a small relief in the cost-of-living crisis. More than 5.5 million people receiving income support or a pension will have their payments increased when indexation takes effect on September 20.
    The increase is in addition to the Government’s cost of living package announced in its May budget, aimed at boosting income support. Social Services Minister Amanda Rishworth said the Albanese Government recognised Australians were continuing to grapple with cost-of-living pressures.
    “Indexation is a vital mechanism to safeguard the purchasing power of social security payments, ensuring they keep pace with the cost of living,” Ms Rishworth said.
    The payment rates of some working age and student payments will increase by $40 a fortnight. This is in addition to the Consumer Price Indexation (CPI) increase on the same date.
    The indexation will affect a range of government payment programs, including Jobseeker, age and disability support pensions, and single parents. Those on single Jobseeker payments are among the biggest winners of the indexation package, with base payments rising by $56.10 to $749.20 per fortnight. The increase is the largest nominal increase to the main adult unemployment benefit in Australia, with adult ABSTUDY recipients also set to receive a boost. Those on single parent payments will now get a base payment rate of $942.40, reflecting a $20.30 increase, with those also receiving Jobseeker receiving a larger increase. Those on an age, disability or carer support payment will also receive an increase of between $32.70 and $49.50 per fortnight for singles and couples respectively.
    Income support recipients who are renting will also receive an increase to the maximum rates of Commonwealth Rent Assistance.

  45. It is astonishingly simple, why there is no point in Ukraine negotiating with Putin:

    “Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said that Kyiv cannot conduct peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin because he cannot be trusted.

    He said that Putin cannot be trusted, because even if he gives you his word, there is no guarantee that he keeps it.

    “He is not a person with whom you can seriously negotiate something. If you think that you have successfully agreed with him, then you are putting yourself in danger of being attacked by him,” Kuleba said.
    The Ukrainian Foreign Minister believes that the more successful Ukraine is on the battlefield, the more Russia will be ready for negotiations, but he does not see a possibility for negotiations with the Russian Federation in the near future.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/5/7418589/

  47. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 8:25 am

    phoenixRED and Victoria,
    Donald Trump>Roger Stone>Proud Boys and Oath Keepers

    I’m really, really surprised that Roger Stone hasn’t been charged with anything yet.

    ******************************************

    Historically in mob trials it’s start at the lowest rung on the ladder and work upwarda till the pinnacle is reached

    I think there are quite a few more worried Trump supporters …. and Trump himself …….out there waiting the call

  48. Labor is probably already over a third of its way through its life in government.

    Most likely outcome of the next federal election is a Labor minority propped up by the Greens, Wilkie and Teals – the latter because it is mathematically not possible for the Coalition to form a viable government. Two party preferred 50.8-49.4 to the ALP. Seats – ALP 70 Green 3 Coalition 65 Others 12

    Second Albanese government to last less than two years before falling in a vote of no confidence. Dutton LNP to win election in late 2026/early 2027 in a landslide. Australia to be in a permanent semi-illiberal right-wing state after that, similar to Turkey or Hungary.

  49. C@t

    Also Michael Flynn and Steve Bannon come to mind. There are more of course.

    Having said that. My hope is that the Saudia Arabian nexus is going to be a doozy.

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