Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

The first Newspoll conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights provides the government with bad news on multiple fronts, despite still being ahead on voting intention.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights gives Labor its weakest result since the election, with a two-party preferred lead of 53-47 comparing with 55-45 in the final YouGov-conducted Newspoll six weeks ago. The Coalition also leads for the first time on the primary vote, up three to 37% with Labor down one to 35%. The Greens are up a point to 13%, their equal best result for the term, with One Nation steady on 7% and all others down three to 8%.

Anthony Albanese also records net negative personal ratings for the first time as Prime Minister, with approval down six to 46% and disapproval up six to 47%. Peter Dutton is respectively up two to 38% and steady at 49%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 54-29 to 50-31. The news for the government is particularly bleak with respect to the Indigenous Voice, on which no records a lead of 53-38.

There is a further report in The Australian on the new polling arrangements, which says “Newspoll will continue to use the same set of questions it has asked since 1985, and the same methodology Dr (Campbell) White and Mr (Simon) Levy designed after the 2019 election while at YouGov”. However, there would seem to be differences in that the field work period is Monday to Friday and the sample size 1200, whereas previously surveys were conducted from Wednesday to Saturday and the sample was typically 1500 to 1600.

UPDATE: The Australian Polling Council-mandated methodology statement for the new poll is here. It shows a smaller gap than previously between the actual and effective sample size (the final YouGov Newspoll having been fairly typical in this respect), such that the latter is much the same as before and the effective margin of error little changed (indeed slightly lower) at a bit over 3%. Casey Briggs of the ABC notes this may reflect a simpler weighting frame than the one used previously, which encompassed income and AEC region (inner metropolitan, outer metropolitan, provincial and rural) as well as age, gender, education and location (the specifics of the latter are undisclosed).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 20 of 20
1 19 20
  1. nath @ Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 10:29 pm:
    “Dune sequel pushed back to 2024. God dam.”

    My teenage son and I are very disappointed. Isn’t this from a strike in Hollywood?

    Still, he has bought the books and has been avidly reading them. It is kind of making him more open to Islamic culture, interestingly. I guess being descended from Edward III isn’t enough for some people.

  2. Ven @ Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 10:24 pm:

    Ven, along with nukes, I would love the world to be rid of those weapons entirely.

  3. Ray (UK)says:
    Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 10:14 pm
    Re Birmingham
    I think the main reason is a huge bill for an Equal Pay class action going back decades.
    Yep. I thought Griff was clutching at straws trying to link it to the Commonwealth Games.
    Better luck next time Griff.

  4. Regarding things aristocratic and Royal, it’s nearly a year since Queen Elizabeth left us (anniversary is the day after tomorrow). Time flies, etc.

    For most of her “subjects”, she had always been there. Very few could remember a time before her reign. I was born before her reign started but was too young to know or care. Since I’ve been aware, she had always been a sort of presence in the background.

    As for Charles, he seems to have been pretty much invisible. After the initial formalities, including banishing fountain pens from the Empire, then the Coronation a few months back, he seems to have pretty much faded away. Maybe he gets write-ups in New Idea, I don’t know. Most references to things Royal that I am aware of now seem to be about Harry and Meghan.

    Maybe it’s getting to the time to restart the Republic. Not in a rush, that won’t work. Deal with the Voice now. Then deal with what comes of the result. Then restart the Republic – next term. Earliest possible referendum? Probably during the Labor term after next, hopefully around 2029-30.

  5. @nath:

    “ As soon as Dutton opposed it I accepted the Voice was lost. But it is still depressing to me that we can’t even get up a toothless advisory body that will probably be ignored most of the time anyway. Just a nation of dumbfcks.”

    My political gut told me that The Voice would struggle as soon as it became clear that Dutton would end up as the Liberal Party Leader.

  6. Enough Alreadysays:

    Still, he has bought the books and has been avidly reading them. It is kind of making him more open to Islamic culture, interestingly
    Well, I don’t know what to say about that. Dune, movies and novels are great entertainment but as for lessons about cultural understanding I wouldn’t recommend it. It must be remembered that in the novels, Paul’s triumph on Dune led to a Jihad:

    The Jihad ended in 10208 AG. According to Muad’Dib, conservative estimates put the Jihad’s casualties at 61 billion lives, the sterilization of ninety planets, and the “demoralization” of five hundred additional worlds. Furthermore, 40 different religions were wiped out, along with their followers.

  7. Mexicanbeemer at 7.12 pm, Nicholas at 7.15 pm and Boerwar at 7.20 pm

    Here is an educational leaflet from the Gunai Kurnai representative organisation about the Voice:

    Senator Thorpe comes from Gunai territory. Has she spoken with those representatives on the Voice?

    However, she thinks Malcolm Roberts (the Hansonite nutter who attended Trump’s inauguration etc) is a real gent, and says Senator Canavan (the most nasty and specious National MP) is a “mate”. You can bet there was incredulity in Gunai territory if her local representatives watched Spinner’s Kitchen.

  8. nath @ Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 10:45 pm:

    He is still in high school, and so overly prone to taking the wrong things seriously.

  9. You can’t say that the Voice will improve things for indigenous people out of one side of your mouth and reassure the White public that it won’t actually change anything out of the other side of your mouth. When you do that you look like you’re either lying or just talking out your arse. Which I think is a major reason for the average low-information voter getting a negative impression of the whole thing.

  10. Annabelle Dickson and Eleni Correa of POLITICO Europe report that Britain’s Labour Party leader Keir Starmer has moved the Labour Party back to the center in anticipation of next year’s general election.

    The Labour Party chief sent the soft-left wing of his party into full retreat on Monday with a dramatic shadow Cabinet reshuffle that rewarded a string of MPs on his party’s right flank.

    It marked the final stage of a three-year project which has seen Starmer take ruthless grip of his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing party and drag it steadily back to the center ground, echoing the 1990s modernization led by Tony Blair and pal Peter Mandelson. […]

    With Labour commanding an 18-point poll lead over the ruling Conservatives ahead of next year’s general election, Starmer’s picks for his top team are a clear indication of who will hold high office if he wins power.

  11. Wat Tyler at 5.52 and 6.08 pm, B.S. Fairman at 6.32 pm

    Your memory was correct Wat, but it was another of those baby polls by sample size that are worthless.

    Re Howard’s Preamble, yes you could say he used it as a wrong-un to clean bowl the lazy Republicans.

    Turnbull was all flashy in the Republican dressing-room but he never knew how to read an old wicket.

    However, anybody duped into thinking there are two questions now (i.e. thinking that Constitutional Recognition is distinct from the proposed Voice) is recycling Howard’s old ball, wittingly or otherwise.

    Or, to put it crudely, they are recycling the colonial crap that Howard put before the Australian people.

    Sadly Howard conned a great poet, Les Murray, into participating in his Preamble charade by penning the words. When that didn’t work out well, he got Aden Ridgeway to lend his authority to the words. It didn’t help. Howard’s Preamble got 39% nationally. A dismal failure.

    A “formal”, purely symbolic and so gutless mention of our lands’ original owners in the Constitution has been more dead than a Monty Python parrot for 25 years. Only a Dutton would try to give it CPR.

  12. Ray (UK) says:
    Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 10:14 pm
    Re Birmingham

    I think the main reason is a huge bill for an Equal Pay class action going back decades


    Mostly agreed. The equal pay class action is a £650 million to £760 million bill due June 2023. But the ruling was first made in 2012. Over a decade prior and they didn’t plan for losing all appeals and put the money aside. Silly.

    This silliness was compounded by hosting the Commonwealth Games in 2022 and spending £180 million (budgeted – we know what really happens).

    And let’s not talk about Sandwell Council next door which is currently required to have oversight by Government commissioners due to “serious mismanagement”. They contributed funds for the Aquatic centre for the Games which blew out 21% from 60 to 73 millions pounds.

    Not the best place or time to host such a circus, perhaps 🙂

    p.s. Taylormade, Dan is looking after your interests in Victoria a lot better than those Labour councillors in the Midlands 😉

  13. I’d much prefer a Dukedom.

    Tim: “I’d be happy to be an OBE — best of all, an Earl and an OBE.”
    Graeme, looking at Tim: “You’d be an earlobe!”

  14. Ven says:
    Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 9:04 pm

    Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 8:50 pm
    Ray (UK) says:
    Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 8:28 pm
    Breaking news

    ‘Birmingham City Council has effectively declared itself bankrupt as it says it will stop all but essential spending .. Europe’s largest local authority has issued a Section 114 notice – which means it will spend only to protect core services’


    Anything to do with a recent sporting event held there?

    And I read somewhere or saw it on TV, that city Mayor said that he can look into the request to host that event again in 2026.

    I think Andrews government paid to much money to avoid court case.
    98.6 says :
    Maybe this news will warn Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate to think twice about wanting to stage the 2026 Comm Games and hopefully Annastacia, when she comes back from holidays, won’t give a cent to the proposal.

  15. ItzaDream @ #910 Tuesday, September 5th, 2023 – 7:57 pm

    In my country PO Box today I got a hard paper flier – business envelope size – well presented in black and yellow listing ten reasons to vote no. Numbered 1 to 10 Bold Heading and smaller print short expansion.

    Prominent Don’t Know? Vote No.

    Link to with QR code

    Authorised by A. Hirst, Liberal Party, Barton ACT


    The small explainers are as potent. I tell you, if this is all you read, and believed it, you’d vote a big fat No. If all you saw with this and the Farnham ad (as brilliant as it is, I think), you’d still vote a big fat No.

    This packs a punch.

    I find that hard to believe given that ’04’ and ’05’ direcly contradict each other. It’s got scope to look at any issue it wants, but definitely won’t help? Okay. 🙄

    Also ’02’ makes it difficult to credibly assert ’06’, ’07’, and ’08’. No details available, but definitely it’ll be slow, expensive, dysfunctional, and enabling of activists (which is bad…why?). Those claims can’t be based on any actual details, so must be pure FUD.

    ’09’ is literally the point. Though also wrong. What a referendum creates, another referendum can take away.

    The small explainers must be truly revelatory to overcome the prima facie self-contradictions in that list.

  16. Watermelonsays:
    Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 11:01 pm
    You can’t say that the Voice will improve things for indigenous people out of one side of your mouth and reassure the White public that it won’t actually change anything out of the other side of your mouth. When you do that you look like you’re either lying or just talking out your arse. Which I think is a major reason for the average low-information voter getting a negative impression of the whole thing.
    Australia has a growing non-Angelo population and it is up to the government to change things and that’s why many people are cynical about politicians and people from disadvantaged groups are often more exposed to government finding it difficult.


    Ships/ boats.
    Settlement/ invasion.
    Frontier Wars.
    Statutes of Westminster.
    Ships/ planes.
    Hmmm, 1967 referendum.
    Native title.
    Lotsa …
    2023 referendum.
    I guess centrist, blue Libs lite seem to think VTP&E is as far as they might get in this round. [Which based on say TGA polls tracker seems unlikely, be it majority of voters, or even states.]
    May be TRC.
    Clearly activists have dreams more in line with pay the rent, never ceded … as in treaty/ sovereignty/ reparations. More South Africa/ Zimbabwe, less Hong Kong/ red PR of CHYNA.
    Vastly divergent views between far left to the far right (cosmopolitan, multi-cultural, …, white, black).
    As more areas are returned to traditional custodians of the land, what’s next?
    End point, a CWoA with onshore HoS (Malaysian-style pillarisation)?
    Secession, of … territories, land councils?
    The West in retreat, the East (BRIC+s) in ascendancy?

Comments Page 20 of 20
1 19 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *