The Australian reports the first Newspoll conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights gives Labor its weakest result since the election, with a two-party preferred lead of 53-47 comparing with 55-45 in the final YouGov-conducted Newspoll six weeks ago. The Coalition also leads for the first time on the primary vote, up three to 37% with Labor down one to 35%. The Greens are up a point to 13%, their equal best result for the term, with One Nation steady on 7% and all others down three to 8%.
Anthony Albanese also records net negative personal ratings for the first time as Prime Minister, with approval down six to 46% and disapproval up six to 47%. Peter Dutton is respectively up two to 38% and steady at 49%, with Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 54-29 to 50-31. The news for the government is particularly bleak with respect to the Indigenous Voice, on which no records a lead of 53-38.
There is a further report in The Australian on the new polling arrangements, which says “Newspoll will continue to use the same set of questions it has asked since 1985, and the same methodology Dr (Campbell) White and Mr (Simon) Levy designed after the 2019 election while at YouGov”. However, there would seem to be differences in that the field work period is Monday to Friday and the sample size 1200, whereas previously surveys were conducted from Wednesday to Saturday and the sample was typically 1500 to 1600.
UPDATE: The Australian Polling Council-mandated methodology statement for the new poll is here. It shows a smaller gap than previously between the actual and effective sample size (the final YouGov Newspoll having been fairly typical in this respect), such that the latter is much the same as before and the effective margin of error little changed (indeed slightly lower) at a bit over 3%. Casey Briggs of the ABC notes this may reflect a simpler weighting frame than the one used previously, which encompassed income and AEC region (inner metropolitan, outer metropolitan, provincial and rural) as well as age, gender, education and location (the specifics of the latter are undisclosed).
It does look like the Voice is terminal based on these numbers, it doesnt look like Albo will be able to go the full term either without a major re-set post The Voice.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:54 pm
Mexicanbeemer @ #1799 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 9:52 pm
Newspoll – yes 38 no 53.
That is one big mountain to climb.
But does that number include the dinosaurs in the states already identified as voting No?
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My guess is the no vote might have peaked because last week wasn’t great for the yes campaign but this week looks to have started better.
Lars is rubbing hands with glee. Atlast something going right after continuous wrong calls.
What was the saying : A broken clock …
From the last thread, one minute apart…
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Oh man, the juxtaposition of those two posts…
If “yes” loses, Auspol Twitter is gonna be unreadable for weeks (unless you’re a masochist). So will here. There will be an unhinging that’ll make the aftermath of the 2019 election look restrained.
@Mexicanbeemer 9:48pm
While that may hold up logically, there’s the fact that Australian media is hopelessly biased. With that seemingly simple logical argument of “(if), (then), (how)?”, they simply will likely not ever ask it and instead write “Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton Says… [what Dutton’s office says without query or argument]”.
That’s how they operated from 2010-2013 after all. And it worked pretty well for them.
The problem is the Voice is coming to the boil, ie a vote just as cost of living is also hitting home hard. The Govt has 6 more weeks of this to go.
The Voice ad is great and inspiring – the problem is the argument has already been run and lost. Dutton was totally cynical in saying he would have another ref – totally about making it ok to vote against this ref and neutralising the argument that it won’t happen for a generation. ie he’s giving the shy no voters permission to vote no.
Albo is going to need the Mother of all re-sets post 14 October.
The decision to hold this referendum was a catastrophic mistake that will haunt the country for decades.
Bird of paradox @ #4 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 9:28 pm
I was thinking about that the other night. This place is going to be the absolute worst on the night if No wins. And I also thought it’d be similar vibes to 2019… only more nasty. There’ll be scapegoating, nasty shit-stirring, all the reactionaries will come out of the woodwork to gloat (but also sulk about how they’re hard-done by the “woke”) and, if Victoria is the only state that votes Yes, so many Victorians are going to be insufferably smug.
“The decision to hold this referendum was a catastrophic mistake that will haunt the country for decades.”
It’s hard to come up with a more hyperbolic statement than this.
Although more people asked this round, fewer people appear to be culled, resulting in similar effective sample sizes.
https://www.pyxispolling.com/ws/media-library/5d288a6ba85d442eabf0f3e2ed7bdac7/newspoll-methodology-statement-4-september-2023-by-pyxis.pdf
Sample size: 1200
Effective sample size after weighting applied: 1031
Margin of error associated with effective sample size: ±3.05
versus
https://commercial.yougov.com/rs/464-VHH-988/images/yougov-au-230715-Public-Polling-Methodology-Statement.pdf
Sample size: 1570
Effective sample size after weighting applied: 995
Margin of error associated with effective sample size: ±3.15
Must have struck a great sample!
Glad to see Australians waking up to this shambolic referendum, has really soured my view on Albanese despite enthusiastically voting for him just a year ago.
@Watermelon
So the Gov should’ve said no to a specific request from almost every indigenous group? Tell em fuck off we know best?
Meher Baba was right – they should have pulled the ref in August. Albo and the gang obviously decided on crash or crash through instead.
The only consolation is I still think Dutton gets rolled before Christmas. The Libs actually put someone in who isnt -11 popularity and it will make the numbers even worse.
@LVT
Who? What a talent pool they have to draw from its hard to pick one! Also if no gets up Dutton will go to the election. He’ll lose it given the sheer amount of dirt the ALP can throw at him after such a long public service career with so many controversies.
With a sample size of 1200, the margin of error is 3%. This is also effectively a new poll under the old name. It will be the trend that matters.
They should have legislated the Voice without a referendum, and only held the referendum if it was likely to succeed instead of being crushingly defeated.
Before posters start chasing the concern trolls down rabbit holes, remember this:
This referendum is the direct request of the Uluru Statement From the Heart. To say it should not have been held or should be cancelled is a clear paternalistic put-down of the vast majority of indigenous representatives who asked for the referendum and for the voice.
So Watermelon, Lars, BoP are just your typical know-better, arrogant non-indigenous people who again tell them what is good for them.
@Watermelon
So done specifically what indigenous australians asked them not to do? Got it. Glad you know best.
Lars and Burty going the early crow!
Seen many people made looking like a goose doing that.
Keep it up kids!
Don’t know Bonnie.
I think its reasonable to assume Labor’s PV is on a trajectory back to 33 or worse. The Libs cannot win without the teal seats (which looks unlikely at the moment).
So most likely a minority Labor Govt in coalition with the teals is the future – which is probably going to be very good in policy terms but maybe not so hot on the politics.
The choices and actions by both major parties between now and Christmas will be very interesting. For Labor it’s what now (assuming the centrepiece of the first term, the Voice is voted down in 5 weeks, for the Liberals what to do about Dutton – they cant seriously think they can win with him – but a different salesperson?)
Will anyone be able to tell the difference?
People are not happy about the denial of flights to Qatar Airways. A shambles of the government’s own making.
Lars speaks of ‘resets’. This poll is, of course, another ‘reset’ for brand ‘Newspoll’, since it is conducted by a different organisation to the last ones in the series. We have no idea yet what house bias to give it, for instance. Still, it is another data point to add to the mix – which will be useful once we get a proper handle on how to mix it in, of course.
I’m not sure that Dutton would be challenged if No prevails. I think that having that win under his belt would make the party room a bit more confident in him, especially considering the improvement in his position since even just six months ago, he was so dead in the water that the Coalition lost a by-election that, historically speaking, they should have won. They might believe him to be a slow-burn leader – one who, at first, is unappealing but then grows on voters.
Well, confident enough that he’ll be able to win back enough seats to put them in a position where they can win under a more likeable leader at the election after.
The Voice is a clever ploy by the ALP.
They want to deliberately lose so that Dutton is in his job at the next election.
Regardless of how the referendum goes, I still maintain that it would have been a terrible look if Albo had cancelled it, and would have done far more political damage to the government than a loss – even a heavy loss – would do. For better or for worse, they were locked into it and it had to go ahead.
(Note: I don’t think that about Dutton, just giving my insight into what a Liberal Partyroom member might think.)
@TPOF 10:15pm
Exactly. Even if this referendum fails to succeed, it will still have taken place, and that at least will be a first step into how one could succeed in the future. I imagine there will be a lot of qualitative research about how it goes either way, whether there is some genuine bipartisan pathway toward reconciliation or whether it’s just down to the fact that 75% of Australians just plain hold a negative view against Indigenous people according to a 2019 ANU study. (referring to this article: https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/three-in-four-people-hold-negative-view-of-indigenous-people)
S. Simpsonsays:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:21 pm
People are not happy about the denial of flights to Qatar Airways. A shambles of the government’s own making.
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No, a shambles of the media’s makings and misrepresentations.
There are very good reasons for this decision, and a good decision it is.
Won’t elaborate, do your own research and not believe the Murdochs version.
Watermelon @ Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:15 pm:
“They should have legislated the Voice without a referendum, and only held the referendum if it was likely to succeed instead of being crushingly defeated.”
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Watermelon, in your view, does it matter that the Uluru Statement from the Heart specifically requested the Voice be included in the Constitution?
“We call for the establishment of a First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution.”
Asha says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:23 pm
Regardless of how the referendum goes, I still maintain that it would have been a terrible look if Albo had cancelled it, and would have done far more political damage to the government than a loss – even a heavy loss – would do. For better or for worse, they were locked into it and it had to go ahead.
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It would never have happened. But you are right. It would have looked appallingly weak – which is why it has been pushed by those who wish the government ill (and don’t give a shit about Aborigines). As it is, the voters will have spoken and it will not have significant political benefit or disadvantage whatever the result.
S. Simpson @ Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:21 pm:
“People are not happy about the denial of flights to Qatar Airways. A shambles of the government’s own making.”
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Call: What do we want?
Response: Flights for Qatar Airways!
Call: When do we want them?
Response: Now!!
😆
I disagree re the Voice.
I think the key decisions on the Voice Ref – where made when it was post election Peak Albo. There was a fair degree of hubris (given the history of refs).
This is an extraordinary ref because the PM is so closely associated with it.
You can always have a course correction if you think your going to lose – you could have easily said, you know we’ve heard people what we are going to do is legislate it , and then have a ref in 2 years because people have doubts for example.
It is also going to be terrible for the indigenous population that this is lost. It should always have been as much as possible a 1967 type – only the racists voting no outcome. To have lost 53% of the population including probably 25% of the Labor vote something has gone terribly wrong.
I dont think it will be as bad as the Brexit ref for Albo but it will be worse than the Copenhagen decision for Rudd (to dodge a DD election) in terms of electoral damage. I am sure some of you will say Dutton will wear the blame – but I’m not so sure , after all its Dutton being Dutton isnt it and the Liberal PV is recovering what 15 months in?
Anyway, hopefully tonight’s result will break a few people out of their complacent “everything is fine because we’re soaring in the polls” attitude.
Don’t think Albanese and the government have cause to worry too much – honeymoons have to end eventually, and being up 53-47 isn’t a bad place for a government to be a year and a half in – but they definitely shouldn’t be ignoring the trend away from them either.
The word “referendum” does not appear in the Uluru statement. They seek “constitutional reform”. But a humiliating and completely predictable referendum defeat does not achieve this. If Labor wanted to achieve the goals in the Uluru statement by way of referendum, they would have held a referendum when it was likely to succeed, instead of one almost certain to fail and doom the Uluru statement’s goals, possibly forever.
From last thread …
Asha @ #2032 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 9:47 pm
You need to be a bit more specific. Are talking the nation of China here? Because Taiwan is not currently recognized by the UN – or by many individual countries – as a nation. It is a territory.
Been There @ #29 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 10:27 pm
Cooker alert!
Watermelonsays:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:33 pm
The word “referendum” does not appear in the Uluru statement. They seek “constitutional reform”. But a humiliating and completely predictable referendum defeat does not achieve this. If Labor wanted to achieve the goals in the Uluru statement by way of referendum, they would have held a referendum when it was likely to succeed, instead of one almost certain to fail and doom the Uluru statement’s goals, possibly forever.
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When was that time of ever likely to succeed ever going to happen Watermelon?
Come on tell us, you know everything.
You Greens are so pathetic!
Holy crap these voice numbers are terrible. Until now I’d been in the “I reckon the polls are a bit off, it’ll slimly make the double majority” camp, but those days are over.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:37 pm
Been There @ #29 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 10:27 pm
… do your own research …
Cooker alert.
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Pffffffftttt in your general cooking direction!!
P1
Oh, don’t play dumb, you know what I mean.
Watermelon @ Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:33 pm:
“The word “referendum” does not appear in the Uluru statement. They seek “constitutional reform”. But a humiliating and completely predictable referendum defeat does not achieve this. If Labor wanted to achieve the goals in the Uluru statement by way of referendum, they would have held a referendum when it was likely to succeed, instead of one almost certain to fail and doom the Uluru statement’s goals, possibly forever.”
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Watermelon, the SFTH calls for the Voice to be ‘enshrined in the Constitution’. This can only happen through a referendum (yes, a successful one, not an unsuccessful one). This in turn will never happen if a Government of the day refuses to put it if there is any opposition to it in civil society. The very fact that an entire side of politics in this country (ie, the conservative side, encompassing Liberal, National, One Nation and assorted RWNJ parties) has nailed itself to the ‘we’ll tell indigenous Australians what is best for them’ political/moral axiom guarantees there will be a significant bloc of such opposition for the foreseeable future. Your prescription, then, entails kicking the Constitutional enshrinement of the Voice down the road indefinitely.
No, the only proper way a Government could respect the wishes of indigenous Australians on the matter of a Constitutional Voice to Parliament, as expressed in the SFTH, was to put the question to the voters in a referendum and try its best to see it prevail. I still hope for this outcome on Oct 14, but should it not, it will be my sad conclusion that this will merely demonstrate that Australia, as a nation, is simply not ready yet to approve granting its indigenous inhabitants even this most humble and innocuous of requests.
What is the drop in Albo’s personal numbers about? Qantas Chairman’s Lounge blowback? It’s sometimes the small stuff that cuts through.
Some say that the referendum doesn’t appear in the Uluru statement and that the seek constitutional reform. Thing is that constitutional reform cannot come without a referendum.
Ashasays:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:43 pm
P1
Oh, don’t play dumb, you know what I mean.
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Don’t go down that rabbit hole Asha, I just did but won’t again.
Watch the smug smartarse response.
A look at the history of Australian referenda would tell you that it needed bipartisan support for there to be any reasonable prospect of success. And believe it or not, there were plenty of people in Labor holding out hope that this would actually happen.
I could have told you that for free.
Nath:
I’d suspect it isn’t so much the chairman’s lounge membership itself as the connection that has with all the other Qantas shenanigans going down right now
Asha @ #41 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 10:43 pm
What you are saying is that if a territory decides to secede from the nation it is generally regarded by the UN (and most member countries) as being a territory of (albeit disputed) then only people in that territory should get a vote, and the nation it wants to secede from should not, without consideration of the legitimacy or otherwise of either claim.
Some people might disagree with that.
nathsays:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:47 pm
What is the drop in Albo’s personal numbers about? Qantas Chairman’s Lounge blowback? It’s sometimes the small stuff that cuts through.
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Drop is fuck all in the scheme of things.
Labor on track to win next election by an increased margin, explain that to your restaurant mates.