Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll find both parties down on the primary vote, Labor by two points to 31% and the Coalition down one to 32%, with the Greens up one to 15%, One Nation up two to 7% and undecided steady at 6%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is unchanged at 51% to 43%, with the remaining 6% undecided. The poll also features monthly leadership ratings which give Anthony Albanese his weakest numbers since the election, down two on approval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 43%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 43%.
The poll records the no lead on the Indigenous Voice out from 47-43 to 48-42, which is at least a slower rate of decline for yes than other polls of late. Yes includes 30% for hard yes and 12% for soft, with no respectively at 41% and 7%. Small-sample state breakdowns have yes leading 45-44 in New South Wales, and trailing 44-43 in Victoria, 58-35 in Queensland, 58-34 in Western Australia and 45-37 in South Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1151.
Two further sets of voting intention were released yesterday, one being the weekly Roy Morgan, which has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, in from 53.5-46.5 last week. Labor must have done quite a bit better on respondent-allocated preferences than last week, as they are down one-and-a-half on the primary vote 33.5% with the Coalition up two-and-a-half to 37.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.
The other is from RedBridge Group, which had Labor leading 54.1-45.9 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. There is no indication of sample size of field work period that I’m aware, but an accompanying graphic offers breakdowns by gender, age, AEC location category, education, income and language (English or non-English). (UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday from a sample of 1001.)
Enough Already @ #1048 Friday, September 8th, 2023 – 8:50 pm
About as long as ‘butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth’, Lars Von Trier. 😆
The Gruesome Twosome of the blog.
It appears that their latest, likely co-ordinated, campaign against me (they talk off the blog), is to try and slam me for posting too much every time I raise my head above the parapet. But their cunning plan falls apart when you just have to look at how much THEY post. 😆
So I just keep posting. Not too much, because I don’t want to bore people. Unlike those two, who have hides as thick as Jessie the Cow.
And, lo and behold, G2, Lars Von Trier, swings in to back up G1, nath, with his latest tiresome trope, equating my posting to smoking. nath must have sent him an urgent message that he needed support. 😆
I encourage you to post as much as you feel is necessary c@t subject to William’s overriding supervision of course.
Enough Already,
I wouldn’t take them seriously if I were you. I don’t.
Lars Von Trier @ #1053 Friday, September 8th, 2023 – 9:01 pm
Exactly. Therefore, YOU should cease and desist trying to make something of it.
Can those of you presently behaving like childish morons please stop.
Now, back to a political subject, as opposed to pointless personal guff:
Perry Bacon Jr., formerly of 538, answers a question we’ve all been thinking about, with as succinct a summation as you could hope to find, in this week’s ‘ask me anything’ forum:
Perry …’ I keep seeing headlines about the 2024 race being tied. Here’s today’s CNN headline, “CNN Poll: Biden faces negative job ratings and concerns about his age as he gears up for 2024.” The other poll this week was the WSJ showing the same thing.
Is Biden’s ego that big that he can’t do the right thing and step aside. We CANNOT risk another four more yeras of Trump and with Biden that risk is very great.’
Perry Bacon Jr.:
I suspect Biden is surrounded by lots of people who have taken the party’s basic view on this 1. incumbent presidents have an advantage 2. Biden is a better bet than Harris 3. Harris is the favorite in non-Biden primary. I think the presidential incumbency advantage may not matter if you are 80 (Biden) or crazy (Trump.) I think a primary would result in either a. Harris winning and seeming strong or b. another person winning and seeming strong. I don’t think an open primary is bad. But no, I don’t think is just Biden being selfish. If Harris had a 65 percent approval, I think Biden would happily step aside.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/07/perry-bacon-live-chat/
C@t, I was honestly surprised Nath showed so readily tonight both:
1. his adherence to the Putin line on Crimea – an infallible tell IMO;
2. his undisguised hatred of being bettered in an argument.
But then, his nasty treatment of both you and Boerwar for so long means I really shouldn’t have been surprised at point 2.
Edit: just read your post above. No hard feelings if we just leave it all at that.
The incident in Melbourne looks bad.
From the looks of the report the driver in Melbourne has driven up Bourke street from the east towards the Swanston St hit people at the tram stop there. Then turned around and run into cars at the intersection with Russell killing one of the other drivers. Then he had a brief stand off with police before being arrested.
There are wrecked cars all on the road outside the Macca’s that used to be a Nando’s.
At that time of night on a Friday I am surprised more people were not injured. Perhaps less people are out and about as the weather is horrid.
Been There says:
Friday, September 8, 2023 at 8:57 pm
Boerwarsays:
Friday, September 8, 2023 at 3:08 pm
Out of all the very badly behaved states in the world why have Bludgers singled out Israel for criticism? Has it locked up a million Uighers?
Does it harvest the organs of its prisoners?
Is it burning half the world’s coal?
What?
===========================================================
You’re joking, aren’t you?
Dispossessing millions of their rightful land compares to your China phobia?
I had a little respect, but now, just about gone.
======================================
The point I was making, apparently badly, is that many states behave badly. China for example, runs Xinjiang in much the same way as Israel runs parts of Palestine but as a draconian Han colonial police state.
Turkey’s treatment of its Kurdish population is, in some ways, harsher than the way in which Israel treats Palestinians. The Kurdish death toll is probably in the same order as the Palestinian death toll, for example. Kurdish children are forbidden to speak or to learn Kurdish in schools. Turkish jails are full of Kurdish political prisoners. Torture of Kurds is routine. Turkey launched a full scale invasion of Kurdish parts of Syria.
The point I was making that if you single out a particular state from all other states then it is reasonable that you have to hand a reason why you have singled out that particular state.
It is clear that criticisms of Israel state behaviour is not random. The context is the proposition that Israel is singled out because of anti-semitism and that the criticisms of the state’s behaviour is abused as a cover for anti-semitism.
This does not mean that Israel should be exempt from criticisms of bad behaviour of the state. Part of the criticism is providing a rationale for why Israel has been singled out for criticism.
Seriously EA – I would think your repetitive spamming about UKR is one thing most people on the blog WOULD agree about.
Police sources have hinted that the driver involved in a fatal crash in Melbourne that killed one and injured five may have been affected by drugs. It is believed a car ran through a tram stop before hitting three pedestrians and three cars on the corner of Bourke Street and Russell Street at about 6.30pm.
The crash involved a white Ford and white Kia, according to reports.
A driver was arrested at the scene and police say there is no “ongoing threat to the community”.
THIS is the story of Elon Musk and Starlink in Ukraine, as told by Walter Isaacson in his book, ‘Elon Musk’:
I’ve made it free for everyone to read:
https://wapo.st/3P7FAUw
I see Statler’s off and Waldorf’s on. Take a bow, Lars! 😆
You’re an optimistic man, William!
I read every so often. Post rarely. But Ukraine burns. I just cant sit by and let it happen whilst Enough Already does nothing. I must post. Please, Enough Already, please, do something. Please dont become a russian spammer. Dont sink so low.
Boerwar find us another country, another country supported by billions of dollars of American aid and uncritical diplomatic support, where the security minister is a proud self-proclaimed racist, a lunatic who literally hangs a portrait of a mass-shooter in his living room. This is the guy who Netanyahu brought on as security minister. Find another country like this. When people criticize Israel there’s nothing random going on here. Israel really is something else.
C@t, this is the relevant section from the piece you excellently unlocked for us:
“Although [Musk] had readily supported Ukraine, he believed it was reckless for Ukraine to launch an attack on Crimea, which Russia had annexed in 2014. He had just spoken to the Russian ambassador to the United States. (In later conversations with a few other people, he seemed to imply that he had spoken directly to President Vladimir Putin, but to me he said his communications had gone through the ambassador.) The ambassador had explicitly told him that a Ukrainian attack on Crimea would lead to a nuclear response. Musk explained to me in great detail, as I stood behind the bleachers, the Russian laws and doctrines that decreed such a response.”
Now we know, of course, after all the many direct Ukrainian attacks upon Crimea, that this was just an empty threat by the Russian ambassador to Musk. However, Musk was not to know this at the time. Plus, his geopolitical naïveté was clearly being exploited by his Russian interlocutor.
So, in light of the clear benefits Ukraine had received from Musk in those thousands of Starlink terminals and associated support, I am inclined to go easy on Musk over this, while of course disagreeing completely with his analysis of the wisdom of a ‘frozen conflict’ truce.
Time and tide – two anniversaries:
1. The passing of QE II, a year ago today.
2. The defeat of Rudd II at the ballot box a decade ago yesterday. A dark day indeed. Actually, Abbott didn’t take office until the 18th.
wranslide @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 9:27 pm:
“I read every so often. Post rarely. But Ukraine burns. I just cant sit by and let it happen whilst Enough Already does nothing. I must post. Please, Enough Already, please, do something. Please dont become a russian spammer. Dont sink so low.”
===========
I know, right? How could I not realise the fate of Ukraine is right there in that backpack Nath has kindly packed for me, waiting to be loaded onto the next flight to Poland? 😆
This is a great blog to follow. Every now and then things go off the rails. Then Mr Bowe descends from the ether
and everything gets back to normal. Imagine trying all this in Putin’s Russia , we are all very lucky.
Ukraine is a topic of great interest to most posters here. In recent weeks we’ve also had lots of posts about soccer, AFL and occasionally cricket. We get lots about how deficient Labor’s climate and environment policies are and how we should effectively shut down the country to turn things around. Others like to present (test run?) Coalition talking points.
Then of course we have psephology.
It’s a broad church and wide-ranging discussion.
Australia and the Philippines to run joint naval patrols through South China Sea:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-08/south-china-sea-joint-naval-patrols-philippines/102834466
William Bowe @ #1054 Friday, September 8th, 2023 – 9:03 pm
Could you be a bit more specific?
Thanks for your reply Boerwar.
Israel is a touchy topic.
Unfortunately, my reply to you gave others the opportunity for a pile on.
Let’s ease back people, myself included.
Respect the site, it’s good.
I spent roughly the first hour and a half of the 2013 election night coverage trying to listen to the results though my phone while stacking shelves at Coles, another half-hour or so on the bus home, then promptly got stoned out of my gourd as I watched the the rest on my laptop.
Despite how grim the result was, that certainly was a more pleasant night than the one I had in May 2019, when some celebratory drinks at a rowdy ALP function transitioned into drowning my sorrows at a very quiet ALP function. From what I can remember – which isn’t a great deal – my final few hours at that event were mostly spent consuming free booze and pizza, being glued to my phone as I drunkenly argued with Guytaur, and then unleashing a stream of rambling, half-coherent political analysis on some poor Uber driver during the ride home. The morning after was… rough.
Enough Already @ #1030 Friday, September 8th, 2023 – 7:36 pm
Things have relaxed a bit from the good old days when RSA encryption was export controlled and
youUS residents could buy illegal (to export) shirts featuring it*:But the law applies according to the class of product, not according to what capabilities might exist in any given recipient nation. Anything that uses sufficiently strong cryptography could fall afoul of restrictions, but generally won’t unless it’s a product specifically intended for military use or that contains custom implementations of cryptographic algorithms.
The realistic assumption is that any given capability already exists basically everywhere, anyways. Crypto is just math, and generally developed fairly openly after some debacles involving the NSA and backdoors. Open-source (and disregard for authority) is hugely popular in the crypto/programmer community, and the Internet is global and instant.
Which isn’t to say US authorities can’t/won’t slap an export ban on your crypto-using product, just that it’s comically absurd if they do. The cat’s out of the bag. It’s had a million kittens, and the bag is full of holes.
*Fun side note, an image of the shirt would of course also be illegal to export, so anyone posting a photo or video of it somewhere that a non-US-resident might access, such as any public website, discussion forum, etc., would be breaking the law. Which again underscores just how silly the rules are. Who was going to enforce that, and how? It’s literally impossible.
As for Queen Elizabeth… You know, in hindsight, her passing actually had more of an impact on me than I thought at the time. Mainly because the ridiculous, hysterical reaction that immediately followed her death transformed me from the patient “yeah, it’ll happen when it happens, more important things to worry about right now”-style republican I had been for pretty much my entire adult life to the rather more cynical “yeah, think it’s about time we cut ties with those useless dole bludgers”-style republican I am now.
William, are you ok with enough already’ s posting?
Your the ultimate authority, might you state a view/ ruling?
Ashasays:
Friday, September 8, 2023 at 10:05 pm
I spent roughly the first hour and a half of the 2013 election night coverage trying to listen to the results though my phone while stacking shelves at Coles, another half-hour or so on the bus home, then promptly got stoned out of my gourd as I watched the the rest on my laptop.
Despite how grim the result was, that certainly was a more pleasant night than the one I had in May 2019, when some celebratory drinks at a rowdy ALP function transitioned into drowning my sorrows at a very quiet ALP function. From what I can remember – which isn’t a great deal – my final few hours at that event were mostly spent consuming free booze and pizza, being glued to my phone as I drunkenly argued with Guytaur, and then unleashing a stream of rambling, half-coherent political analysis on some poor Uber driver during the ride home. The morning after was… rough.
================================================================
Go Asha!!!!
You’re a Labor tragic just like me and a lot of others, some call us stooges, but we just believe in a fair go for everyone.
We Labor people may disagree, but that’s the reason we will always have solidarity, as everyone’s opinion counts!
Go Comrades!!
a r @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 10:13 pm:
==============
That whole area of law is so laden with (presumably unintended) ironies it’s doing my head in! But thank you so much for the deep dive into it.
Lars, enough already with all the peace and love! It’s too much!
I think it’s to Israel’s great credit that the former head of its intelligence agency, responsible for protecting the state from threats including Palestinians, feels safe to point out that it is an apartheid state without fearing retribution from its extremist government.
When I was at Monash I steered clear of any subject that touched upon the Israel/Palestine issue and I think this was wise because I later learned they were often just screaming matches. Monash being a bit like that.
I’m more than willing to share the criticism around, by the way.
For example, did you know that Australia recently increased the export permits for the sale of military and non-military defence materiel to Saudi Arabia? We’re excellent at choosing strategic partners.
As to China, Boerwar, I think it’s fair to say you’ve got the field covered, while the war in Ukraine is similarly well discussed here.
Sometime our silences are as illuminating as our discussion, don’t you think?
nath
As opposed to the otherwise calm, rational and respectful debate that characterises Pollbludger?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6QhAZckY8w
Goodnight!
Lars taking the Dutton question time tactic from earlier in the week, insisting the speaker make a ruling (or in this case, Mr Bowe).
I think it’s about time that old-school Labor people reconsidered using the term “Comrade”.
The obvious Russian association seems totally out of place with today’s world situation.
(Of course, it’s de rigueur for people like Nicholas and Watermelon to use it)
On AFL, I was relieved to see the Collingwood player who flattened Angus Brayshaw last night has been referred straight to the judiciary. Some fossils in commentary seemed to think it was OK because it was a charge down attempt(?) Nonsense, it is the player’s responsibility to avoid high contact.
The AFL still seems to take head high contact far too lightly. In Rugby (League or Union) that contact would have been a red card and 4 to 6 weeks off.
On AUKUS, this article details how efforts are proceeding to train up Australian sub maintenance workers in SSN maintenance.
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2023/09/07/allies-target-early-aukus-milestones-to-keep-20-year-plan-on-track/
This is a necessary step to Australia being in a position to operate any SSN, hence I am pleased to see this progress.
I am still opposed to AUKUS for the reasons I outlined recently, and particularly skeptical that Australia building UK designed SSNs will turn out to be Australian taxpayers bailing out the UK shipbuilding industry again. (As the Hunter program was revealed to be today).
Nevertheless, whatever we end up doing, subs need maintenance and this training will be useful. USN training standards for sub maintenance and operations are excellent.
NewsFormer Finland PM Sanna Marin quits politics, joining Jacinda Ardern and Nicola Sturgeon
https://www.dailyo.in/news/former-finland-pm-sanna-marin-quits-politics-joining-jacinda-ardern-and-nicola-sturgeon-41441
“… the dire reality of spiking temperatures around the world, in what is quickly shaping up to be Earth’s hottest year since records began.”
Read in SBS News: https://apple.news/Auih9sNs9QpquHxk4Bpb0tw
New thread.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/09/06/essential-research-2pp-labor-51-coalition-43-open-thread-2/comment-page-21/#comment-4158275
Plenty of states around, democratic, be it socialist, capitalist, authoritarian, fascist, theocrazy, commie
I/c it is a Jewish/ Zionist state in an Arab neighbourhood, aka the Holy Land, fought over like forever, Christians included, and like South Africa, Rhodesia, Malaysia and others facing a demographic time bomb
Be it trade, military, diplomacy, economically, culturally it seems to have weathered, the London empire on which the sun did set (unlike Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria …), and it has been noted it has been seeking post Washington empire of bases allies, partners and friends/ shared interests from Gallipoli land to non-aligned to (you can be wealthy or at war) red PR of CHYNA
Campaigns like boycott, divest, sanctions come and go
Last time I checked Australia now refers again to the former mandates of Palestine and Transjordan as something like Israel, Occupied/ Palestinian Territories and Jordan
Rules based order, international law, … has some way to go, especially considering human rights, then again may be those that are without sin throw the first stone
[The 2023 Referendum for a VTP&E offers an insight into how far those that want far more (crown radical title vs native title over Balmoral/ Mosman NSW comes to mind), those that think that is enough for now, or those that want far less are prepared to go
Should it fail, may be the PM/ key ministers need to step down, so the next PM can focus on advancing Australia, fair, for all, or a reverse Putin, ‘… Albo’ for GG, Jimbo for PM
VTP&E (be it NO!/ undecided/ yes), lotsa advocacy, even more demonising, instead of convincing, with tantrums to follow, see y’all mid Oct]