Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll find both parties down on the primary vote, Labor by two points to 31% and the Coalition down one to 32%, with the Greens up one to 15%, One Nation up two to 7% and undecided steady at 6%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is unchanged at 51% to 43%, with the remaining 6% undecided. The poll also features monthly leadership ratings which give Anthony Albanese his weakest numbers since the election, down two on approval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 43%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 43%.
The poll records the no lead on the Indigenous Voice out from 47-43 to 48-42, which is at least a slower rate of decline for yes than other polls of late. Yes includes 30% for hard yes and 12% for soft, with no respectively at 41% and 7%. Small-sample state breakdowns have yes leading 45-44 in New South Wales, and trailing 44-43 in Victoria, 58-35 in Queensland, 58-34 in Western Australia and 45-37 in South Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1151.
Two further sets of voting intention were released yesterday, one being the weekly Roy Morgan, which has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, in from 53.5-46.5 last week. Labor must have done quite a bit better on respondent-allocated preferences than last week, as they are down one-and-a-half on the primary vote 33.5% with the Coalition up two-and-a-half to 37.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.
The other is from RedBridge Group, which had Labor leading 54.1-45.9 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. There is no indication of sample size of field work period that I’m aware, but an accompanying graphic offers breakdowns by gender, age, AEC location category, education, income and language (English or non-English). (UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday from a sample of 1001.)