We should be due for the monthly Resolve Strategic poll next week, followed shortly by a New South Wales state result, and there’s no telling when something might pop up on the Indigenous Voice front. For the time being, there is the following news to relate:
• Two reports on RedBridge Group polls in the News Corp papers today, one showing the Indigenous Voice headed for a 61-39 defeat nationally after the exclusion of 15% persistently undecided, the other putting the LNP ahead 55-45 on state voting intention in Queensland. Primary votes in the latter case were LNP 41%, Labor 26% and Greens 14% (UPDATE: Further detail from the ABC). The former poll was conducted at some point following Anthony Albanese’s announcement of the October 14 date the Thursday before last, the latter was conducted August 26 to September 6 from a sample of 2012.
• New South Wales Liberal Senator Marise Payne has announced she will retire from parliament on September 30. Two names are dominating speculation about the vacancy: Nyunggai Warren Mundine, presently enjoying an elevated profile as a public face of the Indigenous Voice no campaign, and Andrew Constance, former state government minister and narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore at the May 2022 election. Liberal sources said Mundine would enjoy strong support from conservatives and Alex Hawke’s centre right, and would “even peel off moderate voices”. The Australian further reports Catholic Schools NSW chief executive Dallas McInerney could again be in a preselection mix, although some doubted he was “a realistic candidate, particularly given his affiliation to the ‘imploded’ Perrottet/Tudehope right faction”. Further possibilities named by the Sydney Morning Herald are “former RSL head James Brown and Jess Collins”.
• Liberal sources cited by Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian say it is now considered unlikely that Scott Morrison will vacate his seat of Cook before the next election. Cook is a notable exclusion from the list of seats where the New South Wales Liberals are proceeding to preselection, together with Mackellar, where it is speculated that the way is being left open for an attempted comeback by Jason Falinski. An imminent preselection would present an obstacle to Falinksi given his present role as state party president.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley and Hobart alderman Simon Behrakis will seek preselection for the two winnable positions on the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. This involves challenging incumbents Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler, though Behrakis “is understood to be content with the No. 3 spot, should party preselectors prefer to favour the two incumbents”. Both prospective challengers are conservatives, but Behrakis is associated with Senator Jonathan Duniam and Blomeley with rival powerbroker Eric Abetz. The issue will be decided by the party’s 67-member preselection committee on November 25.
• Shane Wright of the Age/Herald made the case last week for an enlarged parliament, a subject that appears likely to be addressed when the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters completes its two-stage inquiry into the 2022 election. A motion carried at Labor’s recent national conference calling for the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory to go from two Senators to six prompted opposition Senate leader Simon Birmingham to call for the government to rule out changes to the parliament or electoral system before the next election.
c@t: “Unlike some, I’m not giving up on the referendum. People really should read the Jennifer Rubin article I posted, rather than spending their time writing eloquent treatises to its failure.”
That article reminds me of a lot of the stuff that was said and written by supporters of the Whitlam Government in 1975, as all the opinion polls incidated a landslide defeat for Labor, notwithstanding the huge crowds turning out and changing “We Want Gough”, etc . I recall that, to his credit, Mungo MacCallum was the one left-leaning journo at that time who backed the polling rather than the vibe.
I would suggest you read KB’s latest article. These are the most salient words:
“…referendums proposed by Labor governments, held in mid-term and lacking bipartisan support all have poor track records individually, and this one is all three.”
All of us should have realised that the referendum was dead the instant that the Coalition refused to support it. I’ll give a strange sort of credit to the Government and the Yes proponents that they convinced even me that, despite this, there was still a chance that the referendum would succeed. I now wonder why on earth I ever thought that.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Here’s David Crowe’s take on the latest Resolve poll. It’s headlined, “Voters continue to turn against the Voice – and Albanese along with it”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-continue-to-turn-against-the-voice-and-albanese-along-with-it-20230910-p5e3fy.html
Mark Kenny has written a good (as he always does) article about the rise of the right in politics – even on the left.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8342724/rise-of-the-right-even-on-the-left/
Sean Kelly writes that, in misreading the times, Labor’s bad week has become Albanese’s long-haul mess.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/in-misreading-the-times-labor-s-bad-week-has-become-albanese-s-long-haul-mess-20230908-p5e35t.html
Michelle Pini piles into Dutton over the Voice.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/peter-dutton-needs-another-referendum-to-find-his-voice,17880
The Reserve Bank’s outgoing boss will be seen as a man caught by the changing tide, a victim of the economics profession’s then failure to see what everyone these days accepts as obvious, writes Ross Gittins in a constructive contribution.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-philip-lowe-was-caught-on-the-cusp-of-history-20230910-p5e3fm.html
Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles has suggested that Qatar Airways not fully utilising its current access to secondary Australian airports was partially responsible for the Albanese government’s decision to block more flights.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/marles-suggests-qatar-was-not-using-all-its-existing-capacity-20230910-p5e3gb
State-owned Forestry Corporation’s latest effort to start logging Oakes State Forest is threatening the NSW Government’s promised Great Koala National Park. It’s attracting local consternation and global condemnation, Sue Arnold reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/complete-habitat-destruction-scientists-rally-against-nsw-forestry-corporation-clear-felling/
Perry Duffin explains how a vascular surgeon has shown that many of his patients were hooked on cheap black-market tobacco. The doctor has made it a personal crusade to expose how the crooks are amassing fortunes while undoing 50 years of public health advocacy in the tobacco space.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/surgeon-unmasks-open-secret-making-underworld-fortunes-20230830-p5e0qn.html
Michaela Whitbourn tells us that the Federal Court would make legal history if it empanelled a jury in the defamation battle between Sydney MP Alex Greenwich and former NSW One Nation leader Mark Latham.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mp-s-defamation-suit-against-latham-could-make-legal-history-20230810-p5dvjx.html
From the dodgy politician getting a mining license against the wishes of landowners, to the multimillion-dollar government IT contract awarded to a company belonging to a friend of a federal minister. Corruption is rarely visible but its impacts are felt by every Australian, Clancy Moore reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/the-invisible-hand-of-legal-corruption-costs-every-australian/
An SMH editorial says that a sweeping overhaul of the state’s mathematics curriculum will be rolled out in all NSW schools from next year as part of a major drive to channel more students into calculus-based advanced and extension HSC courses.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/maths-revamp-could-pave-way-for-student-excellence-20230910-p5e3hj.html
Looking at the case with Gavin “Capable” Preston, who was shot dead in Keilor Village on Saturday while enjoying a coffee with one of his few remaining mates, also wounded in the attack, veteran crime writer John Silvester says, “Major gangsters are like politicians. They need more friends than enemies if they are to stay in power.”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/in-the-underworld-losing-the-numbers-game-can-be-fatal-20230910-p5e3j9.html
The Age says that hopes for an early resolution of the legal dispute between Victorian Liberal leader John Pesutto and his exiled MP Moira Deeming faded in the middle of last week, with Pesutto telling ABC radio that attempts at mediation had gone, well, nowhere really.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/deeming-offers-an-out-well-sort-of-20230910-p5e3io.html
Passengers between Melbourne, Albury-Wodonga and Sydney face a return to slow and bumpy journeys unless Victoria agrees to start paying for track upkeep.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/massive-problems-v-line-stoush-could-mean-track-downgrade-to-freight-standard-20230910-p5e3h6.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Vintage Cathy Wilcox
A Glen Le Lievre gif
https://twitter.com/i/status/1700667863290499363
Jim Pavlidis
Peter Broelman
Spooner
From the US
Confessions: “The Indigenous community is not divided about the referendum. The majority of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people want a constitutionally enshrined voice.”
Yes, of course that’s correct. But, if Yes ends up getting 40 per cent or less on October 14, the proponents of the Voice are going to have to come up with an explanation a bit more hopeful than “the Indigenous peoples held out their hand to the rest of the Australian community and that hand was rejected because Australians are a bunch of arseholes.” That response doesn’t give you anywhere to go.
I could sense Pearson preparing the way a bit yesterday. He was sort of running the line that the Coalition have adopted a reprehensible stance, but that to some extent they have been led there by the nose by Jacinta Price, who has her own agenda in relation to Indigenous politics. That explanation leaves the door open a bit.
24 years is the biggest gap between referendums ever. The previous record was 16 years between the attempt to ban Commies in 1951 and the Nexus referendum in 1967 which also had the secondary question on “Aborigines” as it was called.
Also, I was looking at the way people had to vote in 1946 at the Social Services referendum, and to vote yes they had to number Yes 1 and No 2. There would have been no debate over ticks and crosses with that system.
New thread.
With resolve now trending against Albo, it’s possible the polls will be back to 2022 election levels by the time the ref is done.
On bludgertrack there’s currently a 1.5% swing to the alp (not incl todays resolve)
Confessions
The FN no campaign has been a lot more successfully than the YES.
To be blunt, the FN was almost a no show in the
war because of division, and because the majority don’t rule they will lose this.
To be further blunt. Welcome to country. An indication of how divided they were.
I don’t know how the referendum will end up going , it’s not looking good right now. I will be voting yes because I trust that the intentions are good. Dutton has basically run a campaign of distrust which is an easy one to prosecute. I don’t think Albo will come out of this one too badly. Dutton though if he wins will most likely come out looking like a heel. I feel any personal guilt that a no voter feels will be worn by him.
meher baba @ #651 Monday, September 11th, 2023 – 7:05 am
Yes, Kevin Bonham, a polling guy, has analysed the polling entrails and pontificated upon them. Big deal. What he says doesn’t resonate with me, and it’s probably why I don’t go to his website that often. Lots of numbers and ‘thoughtful’, beard-stroking analysis, which appears to be missing the point these days about polling, which Simon Rosenberg, whose Substack blog I subscribe to, and Jennifer Rubin, have picked up on. That is, it’s no longer fit for purpose.
So that’s why I’m going to keep campaigning for ‘Yes’ and I will never blame Anthony Albanese for doing the right thing and respecting Indigenous Australians who asked for it. Oh, and ignoring deathriders like Lars Von Trier, who would like nothing more than to see the PM fatally damaged by a referendum loss. I’m not that easily influenced by doomsayers.
What I have been influenced by, is Dan Bourchier’s journalism about the referendum. He is actually putting in the legwork to get opinions from everywhere and then writing actually balanced articles about it. Maybe you should read the latest one. It saddened me to read it, but at least there were some rays of sunshine among the clouds:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-11/voice-referendum-australia-answers-complicated-four-corners/102832900
In my view, yes was an ideal solution, but it is not to be.
An appology will not help Dutton this time. The Teal voters will not forgive. The performance of the Greens will also damage their image.
As for the PM, so he can’t walk on water. Not a insightfully revalation.
Lefty_e @ 6.40am
“Like it or not, if YES doesn’t get up, we’re gonna look a right pack of arseholes down here.”
As it stands Australia looks like “a right pack of arseholes down here”,
Particularly highlighted by the recent outburst of the still only recently departed ex PM, Morrison, unable to extradicte himself from the deluded opinion he has of himself and walloping at the hands of the voters at the 2022 election.
Dutton, Morrison and the LNP are continuing to live in denial of many things.
The recognition of “First Australians” is but one.
Morrison’s LNP government was a textbook “third world” disgrace, a blight on the short history of “white Australia” and can now only be expunged by a win for the “yes” vote in the the upcoming referendum.
Whether enough Australian voters will have the foresight to see beyond their obsession with greed and the superficial adormnments of the success of the greed is on display at the referendum.
History is swamped in instances of narrow horizons and false presumptions and the disastrous consequences of these.
The referendum to acknowledge the Indigenous Australians is a test of the maturity and resolve of a modern country to display some self awareness and balance to move into a future that will examine the best of governments.
The previous Morrison LNP government is being declared with every disclosure, a deceitful, disingenerous political disgrace.
The LNP together with Dutton, Joyce, Abbott, Howard, Palmer, Hanson and others own the “no” vote, the lack of integrity and dishonesty that is associated with the “no” vote and the implications for Australia’s reputation in the future.
This group is the rightful “pack of arseholes down here” and need to be repudiated at the referendum.
Goll stomping your feet is not going to fix the problem.
I think perhaps the only good thing which might come from the certain referendum defeat could be that once the analysis-of-what-went-wrong-rubber hits the road a lot of no voters are going to discover how Dutton and Co fooled them and many will feel duped.
mundosays:
Monday, September 11, 2023 at 9:38 am
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“Just trust us” is where it went wrong.
Works for the sheep, but that’s about it.
Most don’t trust politicians as far as they can spit. Labor or liberal.