Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 43 (open thread)

Three new federal voting intention results together with Newspoll produce Labor leads of around 53-47 to 54-46.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll find both parties down on the primary vote, Labor by two points to 31% and the Coalition down one to 32%, with the Greens up one to 15%, One Nation up two to 7% and undecided steady at 6%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is unchanged at 51% to 43%, with the remaining 6% undecided. The poll also features monthly leadership ratings which give Anthony Albanese his weakest numbers since the election, down two on approval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 43%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 43%.

The poll records the no lead on the Indigenous Voice out from 47-43 to 48-42, which is at least a slower rate of decline for yes than other polls of late. Yes includes 30% for hard yes and 12% for soft, with no respectively at 41% and 7%. Small-sample state breakdowns have yes leading 45-44 in New South Wales, and trailing 44-43 in Victoria, 58-35 in Queensland, 58-34 in Western Australia and 45-37 in South Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1151.

Two further sets of voting intention were released yesterday, one being the weekly Roy Morgan, which has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, in from 53.5-46.5 last week. Labor must have done quite a bit better on respondent-allocated preferences than last week, as they are down one-and-a-half on the primary vote 33.5% with the Coalition up two-and-a-half to 37.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

The other is from RedBridge Group, which had Labor leading 54.1-45.9 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. There is no indication of sample size of field work period that I’m aware, but an accompanying graphic offers breakdowns by gender, age, AEC location category, education, income and language (English or non-English). (UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday from a sample of 1001.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,093 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 43 (open thread)”

Comments Page 21 of 22
1 20 21 22
  1. [‘When the world’s most powerful leaders descend on New Delhi this weekend to address the multiple crises facing the world, notably absent will be China’s Xi Jinping, who has never missed a G20 summit since taking power in 2012.

    As is often the case with Beijing’s opaque decision-making, no explanation was given for Xi’s apparent decision to skip a major global gathering on which China has placed a high priority in the past. Premier Li Qiang, the country’s second-ranking leader, is expected to attend in Xi’s place.

    Beijing’s reticence has invited a wide array of speculations and interpretations, from Xi’s potential health issues and domestic troubles at home to a snub at host country India, whose relations with China have frayed over an ongoing border dispute.

    But viewed from the lens of China’s great power rivalry with the United States, analysts say Xi’s expected no-show at the G20 could also signal his disillusion with the existing global system of governance – and structures he sees as too dominated by American influence.

    Instead, Xi may be prioritizing multilateral forums that fit into China’s own vision for how the world should be governed – such as the recently concluded BRICS summit and the upcoming Belt and Road Forum.

    “There may be an element of a deliberate snub to India, but it could also be a statement that there are different governance structures Xi Jinping thinks are important – and the G20 may not be one of them,” said George Magnus, an economist and associate at the China Center at Oxford University.

    “(Xi) may have wanted to make an example of the Indian G20 and said, ‘this is not something that I’m gonna go to because I’ve got bigger fish to fry.’”

    Disillusion with G20:

    To some analysts, Xi’s absence may mark a shift in how China views the G20, a premier global forum that brings together the world’s leading advanced and emerging economies representing 80% of global GDP.

    China used to see the platform as a relatively neutral space for global governance and placed a high priority on G20 diplomacy, said Jake Werner, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute in Washington DC.

    Since its first leaders’ summit in 2008, China’s top leader has always attended the gathering – including by video link during the Covid pandemic. And when China hosted its first G20 summit in 2016, it pulled out all the stops to make the event a success and showcase its growing clout on the world stage.’] – CNN

    For reasons that should be obvious, I think it’s better to have Xi at the table than not.

  2. So now we’ve gone from Musk turning off access to not enabling access. Starlink is not permitted to operate in Russian territory, perhaps by US Law, definitely by Russian law.

  3. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, September 8, 2023 at 4:48 pm
    Grattan on King:
    _____________________
    Wow. That was lethal.
    Grattans been around a long time. She knows a dud minister when she sees one.

  4. nath @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 6:38 pm:

    “So now we’ve gone from Musk turning off access to not enabling access. Starlink is not permitted to operate in Russian territory, perhaps by US Law, definitely by Russian law.”
    ===========

    Nath, what Russian territory? Under international law, Crimea is Ukrainian territory. Rostov and Krasnodar Krai are nowhere near Sevastopol, and operation of Starlink over those territories would have been unnecessary to grant the Ukrainian military’s request.

    Be careful here, Nath. You are coming close to sounding like an apologist for the Putin line on Crimea.

  5. Oh piss off. The Russians can shoot down Starlink satellites if it wants. If Musk allowed access over Russian territory then it would endanger all Starlink satellites, even those that are helping Ukraine.

    Get off your arse and get over there you annoying shit, you might even bore a few Russians to death.

  6. Further to the above: I still haven’t seen you link to any US law which prohibits ‘operation’ of a system in Russia or Crimea. I have found US sanctions against exporting to (or purchasing property in, or investing capital in, or making loans to) Crimea. So, I think you are not correct to continue suggesting Starlink is prohibited by US law from ‘operating’ over Crimea/Russia.

  7. nath @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 6:47 pm:

    “Oh piss off. The Russians can shoot down Starlink satellites if it wants. If Musk allowed access over Russian territory then it would endanger all Starlink satellites, even those that are helping Ukraine.

    Get off your arse and get over there you annoying shit, you might even bore a few Russians to death.”
    ===============

    Mavis, if you’re reading, I think you need to give little Nath here a ‘time out’. His mask came right off there!

    Nath, you say Russia can shoot other people’s/countries’ stuff ‘if it wants’, as if you would have no moral objection in the world if they did. Answer me this: in your view, can Ukraine’s military shoot Russian stuff ‘if it wants’ as well, or does your moral standard only work in favour of Moscow?

  8. Nath, I see you had nothing cogent to say against the fact that Crimea is lawfully Ukrainian territory and not Russia’s.

  9. This is at least a start in the right direction:

    [‘The Australian War Memorial (AWM) has added information to a plaque commemorating Corporal Ben Roberts-Smith’s Victoria Cross medal, to reflect recent court rulings over his alleged conduct in Afghanistan.

    Key points:

    The Australian War Memorial has added a plaque acknowledging the context of Ben Roberts-Smith’s defamation case to his display.

    Two portraits of Mr Roberts-Smith have been removed from display, but an AWM spokesperson says that is part of previously planned works.

    The AWM has added details about a Federal Court ruling in a defamation case brought by Mr Roberts-Smith against media groups, which found there was substantial truth to allegations he had been involved and complicit in unlawful killings in Afghanistan.’] – Aunty

    If Roberts-Smith loses his appeal and is subsequently tried for war crimes & convicted, he should be stripped of his VC for Australia & a plaque at the AWM should evidence same – eschewing the precedent set by George V.

    https://insidestory.org.au/double-edged-sword/

  10. The MSM and the LNP are savagely attacking Qantas and the government over the misdeeds of Alan Joyce and his board. Concurrently, they are virtually ignoring massive price rises at Coles and Woolworths.

    Meanwhile, social media has it the other way around. A short post on TikTok about the cost of razor blades has been viewed more than 1.7 million times.

    Dutton and the MSM might think they are onto a political winner by attacking Qantas and the government (and boosting their new best friend Qatar). However it appears that the vast majority of people are much more concerned about the price of household basics than the fare to somewhere.

    Backlash against Coles and Woolworths swirls on social media over billion-dollar profits during cost-of-living crisis
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-08/coles-woolworths-boycott-on-social-media-market-dominance/102830264

  11. ‘Nicholas says:
    Friday, September 8, 2023 at 6:33 pm

    Israel is an apartheid state. That is a singular evil. Supporting the Israeli state is a grossly unethical thing to do.’
    ———————————–
    Choosing Israel out of all of them is random, based on some form of rational prioritization, or some other ‘reason’, including possibly anti-semitism.

    I would be fine with random except that criticism of Israel is, quite simply, non-random.

    If there is some form of prioritization for criticisms of a chosen state, let’s hear what that is.

  12. Catherine King has been in parliament since 2001. That means that she is still on the old MP super scheme. Additionally, she has in that time finished a law degree and was admitted to the profession a couple of years ago. As it seems that her political career has peaked (cabinet minister), I would not be surprised if this is her last term in parliament.

    Post the voice referendum, there will probably be a small reshuffling of posts.

  13. China had better not be intentionally violating Ukraine’s sovereignty by permitting or facilitating in any way the entry of its citizens into Ukrainian territory in violation of Ukrainian law:

    “A group of Chinese bloggers illegally arrived in temporarily occupied Mariupol, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is initiating a ban on entry to Ukraine for all “touring” Chinese bloggers.

    Source: Oleh Nikolenko, spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, on Facebook; Sergei Aksyonov, the so-called head of occupied Crimea, on Telegram

    Quote from Nikolenko: “According to available information, a group of Chinese bloggers has arrived in the temporarily occupied city [of Mariupol – ed.]. Their arrival is illegal. It grossly violates the legislation of Ukraine that regulates the crossing of the state border by foreigners.

    … The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is initiating a ban on entry to Ukraine for all Chinese ‘touring’ bloggers.”

    Details: Nikolenko stressed that Ukraine respects the territorial integrity of China and expects the Chinese side to explain the purpose of the Chinese citizens’ stay in Mariupol, as well as the way they entered the temporarily occupied Ukrainian city.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/8/7418945/

  14. nath @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 7:15 pm:

    “EA you should just stick to trying to expose secret Putin supporters here on PB. You almost had me there.”
    ===========

    Nath, I actually thought you were different to the likes of Watermelon or Lars on the Russo-Ukrainian War. I thought we were having a good, mutually enlightening discussion of the Musk-Starlink-Ukraine story which broke today. I am actually very disappointed you showed me I was mistaken about you on those two things.

  15. “I’m fine with criticisms of Israel, except for the criticisms of Israel that I’m not fine with, which happens to be all of them.”

  16. EA I question your support for Ukraine. It’s easy to sit here and mouth off but when are you deploying? When are you going to make a stand? I will arm you up. I have an old Rambo knife bought at the South Melbourne market in 1985. I’m sure others will assist you. The longer you stay here, the more I suspect that you are a Putin sympathizer.

  17. Catherine King is my local federal MP and I’ve met her several times. She’s more formidable than one would think.

    She’s well loved in Ballarat for a start, the only other members for this electorate to say the same would be Dudley Erwin from 1955-75, who acted as John Gorton’s wingman in his time, and Charles McGrath, who was emphatically returned in 1931 after he did the Labor Rat thing and crossed the floor with Joseph Lyons.

    Declaring her political career as over just because the Murdoch shitrags have decided to aim their shitspray cannons at her this past week is a bit premature I think.

  18. nath @ #1009 Friday, September 8th, 2023 – 6:47 pm

    Oh piss off. The Russians can shoot down Starlink satellites if it wants. If Musk allowed access over Russian territory then it would endanger all Starlink satellites, even those that are helping Ukraine.

    They can do that whether or not SpaceX allows Starlink to be accessed from Russian territory. That caveat’s an empty distraction. Starlink is being used to aid Russia’s enemy. The satellites are in exactly the same amount of danger either way.

    The difficulty/expense involved in destroying enough of the 4,500+ satellites to disable Ukraine’s access is probably why they’re safe, and will stay safe.

    Enough Already @ #1010 Friday, September 8th, 2023 – 6:48 pm

    Further to the above: I still haven’t seen you link to any US law which prohibits ‘operation’ of a system in Russia or Crimea. I have found US sanctions against exporting to (or purchasing property in, or investing capital in, or making loans to) Crimea. So, I think you are not correct to continue suggesting Starlink is prohibited by US law from ‘operating’ over Crimea/Russia.

    Strong crpytography does indeed fall under U.S. export control. Starlink would almost certainly use it.

    Though the intent is really to control the cryptograhic expertise (design, algorithms) rather than everything that uses cryptography, and strong crypto is already used, available, and generally well understood pretty much everywhere, so it’s a moot point/technicality. Unlikely that any U.S. agencies would seek to prosecute a violation done by Starlink with the intent of aiding Ukraine, as well.

  19. ‘Asha says:
    Friday, September 8, 2023 at 7:22 pm

    “I’m fine with criticisms of Israel, except for the criticisms of Israel that I’m not fine with, which happens to be all of them.”’
    ————————–
    Choosing Israel out of all of all possible bad states might be random. It might be based on some form of rational prioritization. Or some other ‘reason’, including possibly anti-semitism.

    I would be fine with random except that criticism of Israel is, quite simply, non-random.

    If there is some form of prioritization for criticisms of a chosen state, let’s hear what that is.

  20. nath @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 7:25 pm:
    ============

    Ho hum, back to your retro hit from back in January. It really only amounts to a plea to ‘Go away!’ This is sad.

  21. a r says:
    1. They can do that whether or not SpaceX allows Starlink to be accessed from Russian territory. That caveat’s an empty distraction.

    2. Unlikely that any U.S. agencies would seek to prosecute a violation done by Starlink with the intent of aiding Ukraine, as well.
    ______
    1. It would certainly give them increased motivation to do so.
    2. especially since Musk is so well liked in the Biden administration.

  22. a r @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 7:28 pm:

    “ Strong crpytography does indeed fall under U.S. export control. Starlink would almost certainly use it.

    Though the intent is really to control the cryptograhic expertise (design, algorithms) rather than everything that uses cryptography, and strong crypto is already used, available, and generally well understood pretty much everywhere, so it’s a moot point/technicality. Unlikely that any U.S. agencies would seek to prosecute a violation done by Starlink with the intent of aiding Ukraine, as well.”
    =============

    a r, thank you. If I understand you right, then, a use of such cryptographic technology would only really fall afoul of the US sanctions if it were done to share (whether for free or for profit) new technological capability with Russia?

  23. nath @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 7:35 pm:

    “You’re all talk EA. Arguing with me while Ukraine burns.”
    ==============

    It is unclear what psychological strategy you are trying to employ against me there, Nath. Anything to distract yourself from your own gaffe on Crimea, I guess.

  24. @TPOF

    Oh don’t you understand? It’s because of the faintest vibe that a decision that Catherine King has made might have been contestable as judged by the Murdoch press that means she must immediately resign now from parliament and that there should be an uncontested by-election for a Liberal Party replacement. God, typical slow-mindedness from the intolerant Left. [/s]

  25. ‘TPOF says:
    Friday, September 8, 2023 at 7:34 pm

    Can someone state what Catherine King has done so wrong she should be sacked?’
    —————————————
    Grattan does not think she will be sacked.

    From my perspective King’s handling has turned what should have been a routine policy/regulatory decision into a political dog’s breakfast.

  26. BW:

    If there is some form of prioritization for criticisms of a chosen state, let’s hear what that is.

    There’s no prioritization. People comment when they feel they have something worth saying about a topic, when they feel the need to make a point that has not been made yet, or to respond to a point someone else has made. This isn’t the United Nations, it’s an internet forum.

    Someone criticising one particular government or organisation or company or individual for doing bad stuff doesn’t mean they are fine and dandy with all the others in the world. If someone were to post their thoughts on every single group or person doing horrible things around the world, that’s all they would ever be doing. Nobody has that much time or energy.

  27. Kirsdarke: King has changed her story 5 times and has contradicted the PM.
    We all want the truth. She is sounding as incompetent as the Coalition was.

  28. Enough Already says:

    It is unclear what psychological strategy you are trying to employ against me there, Nath. Anything to distract yourself from your own gaffe on Crimea, I guess.

  29. I am not saying King is going to sacked, I think there is a chance that is just moved at the end of the year. It is not the only change I can see happening.

    I think Plibersek didn’t want her portfolio and was only given environment because it originally looked like it was going need her expertise that has not really been as needed after the legalisation passed. She might want something else.

    Burney is probably gone if the referendum goes down. Even if it gets up, the whole campaign has taken a lot out of her. Additionally she is 66 with a health condition (only Farrell is older). There might be an easier portfolio or even retirement.

  30. Here we go again says:
    Friday, September 8, 2023 at 7:59 pm
    Page upon page upon page upon page upon page upon page etc etc etc

    Making this site untenable

    ______________

    On the contrary. Lines in the sand are illuminating.

  31. Arrangements as to air space access are bilateral arrangements – agreed government to government

    So “You provide access to so many flights into your Country and we will provide so many flights into our Country”

    There is a balance to these access arrangements – so diplomacy is at the core (as with everything)

    To unilaterally provide a significant increase to a particular National (government) airline leads to repercussions – it changes the mix and changes the mix across the landscape

    Leaving aside human rights issues with any particular Nation or Nation State

    So, as an example, Air Vietnam may say “Courtesy of this unilateral arrangement our market share ex Australia is diminished so we are going to reduce our availability to your National Carrier and ex Australia”

    Noting flights ex Australia utilise mid flight stop overs courtesy of distance so another element to the equation (access to these airports)

    Further there is a White Paper on the airline industry the government will consider – so I would imagine the government does not wish to pre-empt

    IATA issues all tickets, there being a private Company in Australia providing tickets to travel agents etc etc IATA then drawing on that Company on a monthly basis (and we are talking significant dollars as you would expect)

    So this Company accrues significant monies from ticket retailers ahead of IATA drawing when the working capital account goes into debit etc etc etc

    King is not going to cover off on the diplomacy thru the media (and the Australian media at that!!)

    This has never happened and will not happen – and the Coalition and their media well know this so a deliberate hit job knowing the Minister is compromised

    Grubby politics – but what more do you expect from this deflated Opposition?

    To lift access is a delicate matter because of the conditions precedent across all Nations which access and provide air space to Australia

  32. C@tmomma @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 8:24 pm:

    “Lol, nath as a ‘powerful enemy’. ”
    =============

    He already had me packed off to Putin’s meat grinder (twice), so I shudder to think what he has in store for me next! 😆

  33. TPOF @ #1026 Friday, September 8th, 2023 – 7:34 pm

    Can someone state what Catherine King has done so wrong she should be sacked?

    Nothing. However, if you dissect the entrails, she should have been upfront, from the beginning, about the fact that strip searching Australian Women in Doha factored into her decision-making process wrt Qatar. I mean, don’t you know that female Labor Ministers are supposed to be as flint of heart as Liberal Women when THEY are Ministers of the Crown and must only make decisions based upon the financial benefit to stakeholders? 🙄

  34. Enough Already @ #1042 Friday, September 8th, 2023 – 8:35 pm

    C@tmomma @ Friday, September 8, 2023 at 8:24 pm:

    “Lol, nath as a ‘powerful enemy’. ”
    =============

    He already had me packed off to Putin’s meat grinder (twice), so I shudder to think what he has in store for me next! 😆

    He can’t drag himself away from the blog for long enough to do anything pro active like that. 😆

  35. This is the crux of it:

    To unilaterally provide a significant increase to a particular National (government) airline leads to repercussions – it changes the mix and changes the mix across the landscape

    And why the Foreign Minister involved herself.

  36. C@tmomma says:

    He can’t drag himself away from the blog for long enough to do anything pro active like that.
    ____________
    I’ve had a few days when I’ve posted too much. Nothing like your record, the gruesome blog bride.

  37. C@t, it is commonly said in Ukraine these days that the best way to tell if a Russian is sincere when they tell you they oppose Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is to ask them: ‘Чий це Крим?’ (trans: ‘Whose is Crimea?’). There is a lot of wisdom condensed into that.

  38. nath @ #1046 Friday, September 8th, 2023 – 8:44 pm

    C@tmomma says:

    He can’t drag himself away from the blog for long enough to do anything pro active like that.
    ____________
    I’ve had a few days when I’ve posted too much. Nothing like your record, the gruesome blog bride.

    Absolute crap, and you know it. You’re just denigrating me without any solid basis in fact (I make a point of spending multiple hours away from the blog every day now), and trying to shift the focus onto me and away from your own verbal diarrhoea.
    #EpicFail

  39. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, September 8, 2023 at 3:08 pm
    Out of all the very badly behaved states in the world why have Bludgers singled out Israel for criticism? Has it locked up a million Uighers?
    Does it harvest the organs of its prisoners?
    Is it burning half the world’s coal?
    What?
    ===========================================================
    You’re joking, aren’t you?

    Dispossessing millions of their rightful land compares to your China phobia?

    I had a little respect, but now, just about gone.

Comments Page 21 of 22
1 20 21 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *