Pollster’s progress (open thread)

A summary of the form of the four regular federal voting intention poll series since the last election.

Newspoll’s transition period from YouGov to Pyxis Polling is not yet complete, leaving us without a new set of numbers in over five weeks; we are in an off week for the fortnightly Essential Research series; the monthly Resolve Strategic was last with us a fortnight ago; and while Roy Morgan’s two-party numbers should be with us today, I don’t think we get the primary votes until later, and it’s past time for a new post already. So in the absence of new poll results, let’s reheat some old ones, in the shape of the following LOESS trends from the four regular pollsters since the last election, on two-party preferred and the Labor, Coalition and Greens primary vote. Note that the two-party preferred data is based on my own calculation using previous election preference flows, and not whatever the pollster uses for its headline.

Notably:

• Resolve Strategic has been Labor’s best series throughout the term, and to the extent that it appears that may be starting to change, it’s largely down to their most recent result. The series has consistently been higher for Labor and lower for the Coalition than Newspoll, but tracked very closely for the Greens.

• Essential Research has been distinctive in its high ratings for the Greens, who have been tracking at about 14% throughout this year even before excluding the pollster’s undecided component of 5% to 6%.

• Roy Morgan’s Coalition vote took a dive late last year that didn’t register anywhere else, leading me to suspect a methodological change. It’s since been about equal with Newspoll and Essential on two-party (at least until very recently, which may prove an anomaly) and at the high end for all three on the primary vote, which is to say it’s been low for “others”. I can’t be entirely sure about that though, because the numbers in its primary votes table consistently sum to a few points north of 100% (UPDATE: It’s pointed out to me that the table is missing a column for One Nation, whose support you can estimate as the balance of the other columns, not counting the uncommitted one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,058 comments on “Pollster’s progress (open thread)”

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  1. Dutton’s “Recognition” referendum serves the same purpose for Reconciliation as Abbott’s Direct Inaction response did for Global Heating.

  5. ‘Steve777 says:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:16 pm

    Dutton’s “Recognition” referendum serves the same purpose for Reconciliation as Abbott’s Direct Inaction response did for Global Heating.’
    ———————————
    My view is that Dutton was playing a blinder on the No. Until he opined that he would legislate for the Voice should the Liberals gain government. And especially until he opined that the Liberals would run a referendum on Indigenous recognition in the constitutions.

    Neither passes the pub test.

  8. Watermelon:

    Unless you think China should be debating what to do in the event of, say, Tasmanian independence, it really should be getting much less public policy debate than it’s getting.

    If China was a democracy and Australia was a dictatorship attempting to strong-arm a democratic territory with murky political status into becoming a vassal state, they would be well entitled to kick up a stink. But that is not the case, is it? If Tasmania wants to seek independence, they can hold a referendum on the matter.

    Taiwan is a democracy. It would be a total fucking tragedy if it fell to authoritarianism, just it was a total fucking tragedy when that happened to Hong Kong. (It still makes my blood boil when I remember just how little push back there was against that disgusting series of events.) I honestly stuns me that there are people benefiting from the freedoms afforded by living in a democratic nation who are apparently okay with this happening, to the point of advocating for it!

    Stuff what’s in our “strategic interest.” Sometimes you have to stand up for what is right. And what is right is defending democracy.

  9. ‘Watermelon says:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:21 pm

    Where do you get that 600,000 number Boerwar? Apart from your arse’
    —————————-
    What do you care? White gangsters were not involved so it did not happen at all.
    Check your arse to give me, to the nearest ten million, the number who died in the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. Not a white gangster in sight!

  13. Presumably Dutton’s Referendum would be for some vague statement to be inserted somewhere, maybe in the Preamble, saying that the Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders were here first but not actually requiring anyone to do anything.

  14. Watermelon purports to be seriously interested in the number of Tibetans who died in the invasion of Tibet by China and during the subsequent years of suppression.

    Here is a clue, mate:

    Ask your white gangster friends in China. You are bound to get an accurate answer.

  16. ”
    Griffsays:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:13 pm
    Watermelon says:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:07 pm
    What, if anything, Australia should do about that should be getting more serious public policy debate than it is getting.
    Unless you think China should be debating what to do in the event of, say, Tasmanian independence, it really should be getting much less public policy debate than it’s getting. It’s not our business, or the business of any of the White gangster-states who murdered millions in Vietnam and Iraq in the name of “democracy”

    ________________

    You are on fire tonight!

    Speaking of which, I wonder how Firefox is going?

    Edit: I should say I don’t think watermelon is Firefox.
    ”

    Griff
    Is Watermelon Zerlo ( or was it Zerko?), Who was kicked out by WB?

  18. MABWM says:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:30 pm
    Still no Newspoll?

    My kingdom for a Newspoll!

    _________________

    Those offering hereditary land assets for a Newspoll please form an orderly queue.

  19. ”
    Ashasays:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:23 pm
    Watermelon:

    Unless you think China should be debating what to do in the event of, say, Tasmanian independence, it really should be getting much less public policy debate than it’s getting.

    If China was a democracy and Australia was a dictatorship attempting to strong-arm a democratic territory with murky political status into becoming a vassal state, they would be well entitled to kick up a stink. But that is not the case, is it? If Tasmania wants to seek independence, they can hold a referendum on the matter.

    Taiwan is a democracy. It would be a total fucking tragedy if it fell to authoritarianism, just it was a total fucking tragedy when that happened to Hong Kong. (It still makes my blood boil when I remember just how little push back there was against that disgusting series of events.) I honestly stuns me that there are people benefiting from the freedoms afforded by living in a democratic nation who are apparently okay with this happening, to the point of advocating for it!

    Stuff what’s in our “strategic interest.” Sometimes you have to stand up for what is right. And what is right is defending democracy.
    ”

    Asha
    Do the right thing because it is right thing to do.

  21. Ven says:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:34 pm
    ”
    Griffsays:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:13 pm
    Watermelon says:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:07 pm
    What, if anything, Australia should do about that should be getting more serious public policy debate than it is getting.
    Unless you think China should be debating what to do in the event of, say, Tasmanian independence, it really should be getting much less public policy debate than it’s getting. It’s not our business, or the business of any of the White gangster-states who murdered millions in Vietnam and Iraq in the name of “democracy”

    ________________

    You are on fire tonight!

    Speaking of which, I wonder how Firefox is going?

    Edit: I should say I don’t think watermelon is Firefox.
    ”

    Griff
    Is Watermelon Zerlo ( or was it Zerko?), Who was kicked out by WB?

    ______________

    You might very well think that; I couldn’t possibly comment 🙂

  22. Q: My view is that Dutton was playing a blinder on the No. Until …

    Dutton blew the No side to pieces today. He has made his second referendum the issue…..

    The Voice Ad will start the Yes rebuild.

  26. #Newspoll Albanese: Approve 46 (-6) Disapprove 47 (+6)
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Albanese 50 (-4) Dutton 31 (+2)
    #Newspoll Dutton: Approve 38 (+2) Disapprove 49 (0)
    Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (-2) L/NP 47 (+2)
    Federal Primary Votes: ALP 35 (-1) L/NP 37 (+3) GRN 13 (+1) ON 7 (0)
    #Newspoll Voice to Parliament
    Yes 38
    No 53

  29. Today has been one of those days in a campaign that gets looked back on the night of the count as being critical to the outcome. The use of “you’re the voice” is big and Dutton’s brainfart about holding a new referendum like why.

  30. Asha @ #1945 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 7:41 pm

    Oh, wait, was P1 suggesting the entirety of mainland China also take part in a hypothetical referendum on Taiwanese independence? Because obviously that’s goddamn ridiculous for multiple different reasons.

    So you think only people who will deliver the outcome you want should get to vote?

    I’ll bet you are popular in Labor party meetings.

  31. Mexicanbeemer @ #1789 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 9:41 pm

    Today has been one of those days in a campaign that gets looked back on the night of the count as being critical to the outcome. The use of “you’re the voice” is big and Dutton’s brainfart about holding a new referendum like why.

    Dutton knows Recognition of FN people in the Constitution is overwhelmingly popular, so he’s split the difference and now he’s going for a meaningless referendum plus remaining in total control of Indigenous lives.

  32. P1:

    No, you disingenuous knob, I think that only the people who are actually residents of the nation seeking self-determination should actually vote in a referendum about seeking self-determination.

    If Victoria were to seek independence, the rest of Australia – quite rightly – wouldn’t get a vote in the referendum.

  33. Oh wow. For all the noise, signifying nothing, from The Greens about Housing, they’ve picked up all of 1 point from Labor. 😐

  35. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:44 pm
    Mexicanbeemer @ #1789 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 9:41 pm

    Today has been one of those days in a campaign that gets looked back on the night of the count as being critical to the outcome. The use of “you’re the voice” is big and Dutton’s brainfart about holding a new referendum like why.

    Dutton knows Recognition of FN people in the Constitution is overwhelmingly popular, so he’s split the difference and now he’s going for a meaningless referendum plus remaining in total control of Indigenous lives.
    ———————-
    I get the game Dutton is playing but its potentially pulled the rug from under the no campaign because people can now say so you don’t want it in the constitution because it will be all powerful but you want to hold another vote to put it in the constitution.

  36. I honestly stuns me that there are people benefiting from the freedoms afforded by living in a democratic nation who are apparently okay with this happening, to the point of advocating for it!

    I’m not advocating for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. China will not invade Taiwan unless Taiwan formally declares independence.

    What I am saying is that the AUKUS thug-states, who for decades – actually centuries – have asserted a god-given right to commit mass murder across the world (particularly in East Asia) with total impunity, should not be giving Taiwan some type of assurance that if they were to declare independence, they would be militarily supported against China.

  37. Asha @ #2032 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 9:17 pm

    P1:

    No, you disingenuous knob, I think that only the people who are actually residents of the nation seeking self-determination should actually vote in a referendum about seeking self-determination.

    If Victoria were to seek independence, the rest of Australia – quite rightly – wouldn’t get a vote in the referendum.

    Not to “akshually” you but, I believe the Constitution binds the states to the Commonwealth, and therefore I believe you’d need a nationwide referendum to change the constitution to facilitate such a secession.

  38. Bystandersays:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:10 pm
    The word “cooker’ seems to come up a lot here, obviously as an insult of some kind. Can anyone please tell me what it means in this context? The last I heard it was something you used to cook your meals.
    ================================================================
    Bystander, the only time the term cooker comes up a lot here is in Player Ones posts.

    Simply, if you disagree with Player One you are a “cooker”, end of story.

    Don’t try to reply to her posts as you will go down the path of biggest rabbit hole and goal shifting escapades you have ever seen!

  40. So cost of living being horrendous, 12 interest rate rises, and ‘too much focus on the voice’ has brought the coalition back to, still losing the next election.

  45. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:47 pm
    Oh wow. For all the noise, signifying nothing, from The Greens about Housing, they’ve picked up all of 1 point from Labor.
    ”

    But LNP picked up 3 and ALP Zis trailing L-NP on PV after May election in Newspoll

  47. Lars is rubbing hands with glee. Atlast something going right after continuous wrong calls.

    What was the saying : A broken clock …

  48. Ven @ #1805 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 9:54 pm

    ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:47 pm
    Oh wow. For all the noise, signifying nothing, from The Greens about Housing, they’ve picked up all of 1 point from Labor.
    ”

    But LNP picked up 3 and ALP Zis trailing L-NP on PV after May election in Newspoll

    And house prices are going up, rate rises are coming to an end, rate cuts will be next and inflation is coming down. Also, the next election isn’t until 2025. If you want to be fatalistic, Ven, go ahead. I’m not weak kneed.

  50. By coincidence, I saw this today on Cookers.

    https://newmatilda.com/2023/09/03/the-best-things-on-the-internet-tom-tanuki-watched-11-hours-of-cpac-so-you-didnt-have-to/

    “And by ‘Australian political landscape’, we mostly mean, in Tanuki’s words, ‘the cookers’, a term he coined during the pandemic to describe the ‘freedom movement’, but which has evolved to now describe large sections of the confused right, the less confused but especially malevolent far right, and, let’s be honest here, some not insignificant sections of the confused left.”

    I already knew the term came from a small group of anti-fascists & debunkers who are active on twitter. Some of them set up page to track these “freedom” types (now inactive)…

    https://cookerpedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

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