Newspoll’s transition period from YouGov to Pyxis Polling is not yet complete, leaving us without a new set of numbers in over five weeks; we are in an off week for the fortnightly Essential Research series; the monthly Resolve Strategic was last with us a fortnight ago; and while Roy Morgan’s two-party numbers should be with us today, I don’t think we get the primary votes until later, and it’s past time for a new post already. So in the absence of new poll results, let’s reheat some old ones, in the shape of the following LOESS trends from the four regular pollsters since the last election, on two-party preferred and the Labor, Coalition and Greens primary vote. Note that the two-party preferred data is based on my own calculation using previous election preference flows, and not whatever the pollster uses for its headline.
Notably:
• Resolve Strategic has been Labor’s best series throughout the term, and to the extent that it appears that may be starting to change, it’s largely down to their most recent result. The series has consistently been higher for Labor and lower for the Coalition than Newspoll, but tracked very closely for the Greens.
• Essential Research has been distinctive in its high ratings for the Greens, who have been tracking at about 14% throughout this year even before excluding the pollster’s undecided component of 5% to 6%.
• Roy Morgan’s Coalition vote took a dive late last year that didn’t register anywhere else, leading me to suspect a methodological change. It’s since been about equal with Newspoll and Essential on two-party (at least until very recently, which may prove an anomaly) and at the high end for all three on the primary vote, which is to say it’s been low for “others”. I can’t be entirely sure about that though, because the numbers in its primary votes table consistently sum to a few points north of 100% (UPDATE: It’s pointed out to me that the table is missing a column for One Nation, whose support you can estimate as the balance of the other columns, not counting the uncommitted one).
‘frednk says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:02 pm
Griff says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 1:23 pm
….
Complex. Here is an interesting (preprint) causal graph analysis from Europe that may interest.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.18.22275036v2.full.pdf
Thanks for the link. The conclusion seems to be; it’s complicated.
When it comes to my observation,”you don’t see BMI issues in the CBD”, this observation also extends to the CBD homeless, and there is no shortage of people to observe on the CBD streets.
I have been told by some0one who works in the sector, the real housing problem in social housing where rent is 25% of your income. That sector that really does need government support as there is no capital return. If you look at the CBD sample, (assuming they are on the streets, because they can’t find housing) they do not have a BMI problem and they do not have a large TV.
I suspect it is possible to find someone who claims rent stress and who does not have a BMI issue and does not have a large TV. Why does the ABC select such people is my question? The selection is not a one off.’
——————————
Interesting. It was the Guardian in this instance. I have lived in Australian communities where people DID miss out on food. They were remote Indigenous communities back in the middle of the last century. They lacked food, housing, clothing, power, running water, transport other than foot, schooling, medical services, and sewage treatment.
The individuals who are now claiming that they can’t feed themselves now have NFI.
Wat:
*slow clap*
Boerwar, your campaign against the Greens, the Chinese and everything to the left or right of you has the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?
Boerwar @ #1897 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 6:48 pm
Or just drive your EV to a local Australian one. Oh, wait … you don’t have an EV, do you? You apparently believe you can save the planet by amortizing the embedded carbon in your SUV … by burning even more fossil-fuels.
Cooker!
Residents in southern Queensland are being warned to brace for catastrophic bushfire conditions for the first time in almost three years. On Monday, residents of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt regions, which includes Toowoomba and Warwick, will face the highest fire threat rating. The neighbouring Maranoa and Warrego regions will also be subject to a rating of extreme, the second-highest under the new national rating system.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services chief superintendent Tony Johnstone said the catastrophic rating meant fires could be “uncontrollable”. “Resources (emergency personnel) may actually have to stand back and let things burn until it actually gets to a safe place,“ Mr Johnstone told the ABC.
Subject to the recently introduced national bushfire rating system, the rating also means lives could be lost and comes as conditions on the ground worsen.
‘PageBoi says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:51 pm
@wat Tyler
Indeed – imagine!!!!
Not actually wanting to get into a flame war, but TV and fat shaming someone is a bit of a new low for supposedly progressive ALP supporters, for the very reasons that Asha so eloquently explained
PS Asha, where does one fly the Jolly Roger these days? I’m getting pretty over the streaming experience myself with the major fragmentation of services which all mostly lack a real value proposition, so might be time to set sail again…. I didn’t mind when it was 2 or 3 services, but it’s getting ridiculous now’
—————————-
The point being made was that the person concerned was forced to skip meals. She looked very well fed. That is NOT fat shaming. That is making a direct connection between hunger and body weight. As for the TV, clearly there are priorities: TV or food? Had she said that she was forced to skip leisure time activities of watching TV…
As one typically does when they are struggling to afford food.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:57 pm
Residents in southern Queensland are being warned to brace for catastrophic bushfire conditions for the first time in almost three years. On Monday, residents of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt regions, which includes Toowoomba and Warwick, will face the highest fire threat rating. The neighbouring Maranoa and Warrego regions will also be subject to a rating of extreme, the second-highest under the new national rating system.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services chief superintendent Tony Johnstone said the catastrophic rating meant fires could be “uncontrollable”. “Resources (emergency personnel) may actually have to stand back and let things burn until it actually gets to a safe place,“ Mr Johnstone told the ABC.
Subject to the recently introduced national bushfire rating system, the rating also means lives could be lost and comes as conditions on the ground worsen.’
———————————-
Yep. Climate change is accelerating the erosion of the old fire ‘rules’.
‘Player One says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:57 pm
Boerwar @ #1897 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 6:48 pm
So, hop into your private jet and go and spend a week-end in a central american eco resort.
Or just drive your EV to a local Australian one. Oh, wait … you don’t have an EV, do you? You apparently believe you can save the planet by amortizing the embedded carbon in your SUV … by burning even more fossil-fuels.’
——————-
Dear old P1 runs a greenwasher for an industry that generates 8% of the world’s CO2 emissions and can’t stand being reminded about it. Poor thing.
‘Asha says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:58 pm
So, hop into your private jet and go and spend a week-end in a central american eco resort.
As one typically does when they are struggling to afford food.’
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The point being made was that everyone is entitled to leisure time. I was agreeing with that point.
The corollary often forwarded on Bludger is that no-one is personally accountable for doing anything other than is consistent with government regulations.
I disagree with that point.
Bc
“ I agree, and to Russia as well.”
Yes absolutely. If colonial conquest and recovery is wrong for the west and China, it is wrong for Russia too.
[‘Finally, this week, drug decriminalisation came to Australian shores. Laws passed by a Labor Greens government in the ACT came into effect on Monday. This will mean less drug-related deaths, less normally law-abiding citizens arrested, and more time for police to see [?] to real crime.
Yet, on that very same day, NSW Labor premier Chris Minns decided to rain down on Canberra’s parade, telling the Murdoch press that his government isn’t contemplating drug decriminalisation at present, but if he is voted in again, it might contemplate it some time after that.
A number of NSW Labor MPs, however, are likely disappointed with this decision, as they’ve spoken out about drug law reform in the past. They understand that more young people will die at festivals, because, just as the Coalition contains a lot of dinosaurs in its ranks, so too, does their party.
Minns told the Daily Telegraph on Monday that there’s “no mandate” for his government to follow the ACT. But this is pretty obvious, because as state leader, he’s supposed to set the agenda. And the ongoing deaths and overpolicing of First Nations people in regard to drugs, seems to be his mandate.
And, like many in this state, including some in the governing party, the Uniting Church is shocked by this decision.
Indeed, the Uniting Synod of NSW and the ACT are politely asking the premier “to not slam the door on evidence-based drug reform in this term of government”, as families experiencing drug dependency “can’t afford to wait years”.’]
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/nsw-premier-says-no-to-drug-decriminalisation-as-the-act-embarks-on-bold-health-approach/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-36
Minns is piss-weak – a Wran or Carr he’s not. In ’76 Wran’s narrow victory (two seats) resulted in a Labor resurgence, following on from the very dismal result of Whitlam’s dismissal. I well remember the night as I thought at the time that Labor might be in the never-never for some time. If Minns continues with his small target strategy, he’s toast!
Asha:
That was the same for movies. You’d have to wait months after the US release date to see it legally here; meanwhile, Malaysia and Singapore had much less of a gap. When I was in student housing at Curtin uni (how the hell is this two decades ago now?!), the international students took full advantage of that. They’d go back home for the holidays, come back with legally purchased DVDs (yep, some movies were out on DVD in MY/SG before cinema here), rip them and put them on the super-fast internal network. This is back when broadband was new and expensive, and the bandwidth of someone flying a stack of DVDs from KL to Perth was literally faster than downloading it.
I think the last time I owned a TV was about 2007. After a few house moves, I looked at this old CRT box (which wouldn’t even work these days) which was always the most painful thing to jam into the back seat of a car, and wondered “why do I keep on lugging this stupid thing around?” Never been much of a TV watcher, don’t miss it.
‘Socrates says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:02 pm
Bc
“ I agree, and to Russia as well.”
Yes absolutely. If colonial conquest and recovery is wrong for the west and China, it is wrong for Russia too.’
—————————–
Not forgetting India, I suppose.
The problem is that you still have time to post on a political blog after having so many streaming services.
Obviously, if someone has a bit of a gut and a double chin, they cannot possibly be struggling to afford food. As soon as you skip some meals, you immediately turn into one of the kids in the World vision ads. That’s how the human body works, right? (Also, for all we know, that lady used to be much bigger)
And not only that, they also have one of those newfangled televisions! I bet they even watch it sometimes, instead of spending every non-working hour staring at a wall and contemplating their poor life decisions like the poor are supposed to!
‘Mavis says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:03 pm
[‘Finally, this week, drug decriminalisation came to Australian shores. Laws passed by a Labor Greens government in the ACT came into effect on Monday. This will mean less drug-related deaths, less normally law-abiding citizens arrested, and more time for police to see [?] to real crime.
….’
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There are some serious second thoughts happening in places like Amsterdam and Portugal. I do hope that Australia’s addicts don’t flock to the ACT. Our mental health support services (for those who find that self-medication on recreational drugs was a terrible idea) are already terribly over-stretched.
‘Asha says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:06 pm
Obviously, if someone has a bit of a gut and a double chin, they cannot possibly be struggling to afford food. As soon as you skip some meals, you immediately turn into one of the kids in the World vision ads. That’s how the human body works, right? (Also, for all we know, that lady used to be much bigger)
And not only that, they also have one of those newfangled televisions! I bet they even watch it sometimes, instead of spending every non-working hour staring at a wall and contemplating their poor life decisions like the poor are supposed to!’
————————
Her assertion was that she was ‘forced’ to skip meals.
I do not accept that assertion.
She has choices about priorities.
And, if all else fails, there are emergency food distribution centres that serve meals.
I’m starting to suspect BW is just an energy vampire feeding on us all.
The word “cooker’ seems to come up a lot here, obviously as an insult of some kind. Can anyone please tell me what it means in this context? The last I heard it was something you used to cook your meals.
Player One @ Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:42 pm:
“If this one [which government should be sovereign over Taiwan] were put to a national vote, the outcome would be overwhelmingly in favor of the incorporation of Taiwan into mainland China.
Or should only those on the side of the dispute that you agree with be allowed to vote?”
=============
P1, I want to make sure I understand your point here correctly. Do you mean to:
1. support the idea that sovereignty over Taiwan ought to be put to a referendum voted on by all Chinese, both mainland and Taiwanese; or
2. oppose the idea this sovereignty ought to be decided by referendum at all?
Early union campaigns for the eight hour workday would run on the slogan of “Eight hours work, eight hours rest, eight hours recreation.” People are entitled to wind down and enjoy themselves once in a while.
As for the last few pages… jeez louise, even by the low standards of the main thread, this is utter sewage. I can’t even be bothered going back to see what kicked it off (a social life outside beckons – some of you should try it sometime). All I can do is heartily agree with every word Wat Tyler said, last page (and quoted by Asha).
Any other forum I’ve ever been a regular poster / lurker on, people like Boerwar would’ve been banned long ago. Some people on here are luckier than they realise.
Yup.
Boerwar
“ Yes absolutely. If colonial conquest and recovery is wrong for the west and China, it is wrong for Russia too.’
—————————–
Not forgetting India, I suppose.”
Indeed. As Immanuel Kant reportedly said “you can’t call something a universal moral principle unless, by definition, you apply it to everyone” (or words to that effect written in German).
BoP:
I haven’t bought a TV since my aforementioned Changhong died in around 2011 or so, though I haven’t really had to on account of my housemate owning one. We haven’t bothered with broadcast TV for well over a decade. Whats the point?
Wat Tyler says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:09 pm
I’m starting to suspect BW is just an energy vampire feeding on us all.
——————-
Colin Robinson is one of my favourite tv characters of all time. Genius creation.
PageBoy:
If you have a VPN and are willing to brave all the potential malware, TPB is still your best bet for acquiring media through, er, legally dubious means. The actual website is blocked on Australian ISPs, but it’s pretty easy to find a mirror with a quick Google search.
(Feel free to delete if necessary, William)
Income tax cuts in return for lifting the goods and services tax rate to 15 per cent would deliver high-income households an average extra $2140 a year at the expense of lower income and older people, according to economic modelling by Australian National University.
The analysis suggests that a tax mix switch from personal income tax to the GST, as suggested by some independent MPs and tax reform advocates following the Intergenerational Report (IGR), could not be done in a revenue neutral way for the federal government.
A large amount of extra financial compensation would need to be paid to lower income people, including asset-rich retirees, to avoid people being worse off, ANU economist Ben Phillips said.
He said the 10 per cent GST currently raising about $86 billion a year would probably need to increase in the future to collect more revenue for services as part of a broader tax reform package, but the inequities of a higher GST would make such a change politically very difficult.
“Politically, if you go down the GST path to raise more revenue it’s probably not the easiest of the taxes to increase like superannuation or more taxes on wealth,” he said. “The personal income tax system’s very progressive, so most of the tax cuts would be going to high-income people who pay most of the tax. They also tend to save more than they spend on the GST.
“Lower income households and asset-rich, income-poor older people don’t get much of an income tax cut because they don’t have enough income to be paying much tax.”
https://www.afr.com/policy/tax-and-super/gst-rise-and-income-tax-cuts-help-high-income-earners-20230901-p5e1d8
I hope everyone has a chance to read the article Sohar linked to earlier in the day. Really a fascinating read. One of those glimpses into things which makes you realize how little quality journalism is around.
_____
Sohar says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 10:47 am
Labor’s souring relationship with the union movement.
https://jacobin.com/2023/08/australian-public-unions-cpsu-alp-progressive-caucus
You know BW, you don’t have to be a cranky old bastard all of the time. And I’m saying that as a person with what many might consider forthright views. But it isn’t dialed to 11 all of the time.
Anyhow, what do I know? nothing. I used to know stuff. The older I get, the less I seem to know. That is especially true on fathers day.
Oh… right. Fathers day… Happy Fathers day to the people lucky enough to be so.
Thanks Asha, although a halfway decent VPN is probably a almost a streaming service I suppose
It has actually been nice being a civilian after many many years of piracy, and I will never ever forgive Metallica for their shitfuckery around Napster (plus, if you ever saw some kind of monster, Jesus H Christ I don’t think that came off how they thought it did)
It all comes down to whether you think Xi has the sole right to run Taiwan just like he has the sole right to run the mainland or whether the Taiwanese have the right to choose their own future.
The choice is binary and the two are irreconcilable constructs.
That choice will be forced, sooner or later.
In the interim everyone is doing polite fiction.
Wat Tyler
I’m starting to suspect BW is just an energy vampire feeding on us all.
I recently started watching this show (What We Do In The Shadows). I have caught up pretty fast (now well into season 5). There a quite a few hilarious episodes, especially in the earlier seasons.
‘Pi says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:23 pm
You know BW, you don’t have to be a cranky old bastard all of the time. And I’m saying that as a person with what many might consider forthright views. But it isn’t dialed to 11 all of the time.
Anyhow, what do I know? nothing. I used to know stuff. The older I get, the less I seem to know. That is especially true on fathers day.
Oh… right. Fathers day… Happy Fathers day to the people lucky enough to be so.’
————————————–
Same to you, Pi. Happy father’s day, should you be one.
Mystery fire/explosion in St Petersburg, Russia:
“On Sunday, 3 September, a big fire broke out at an oil depot in Krasnogvardeysky District, St Petersburg, Russia.
Local residents reported that they heard sounds of explosions at the Ruchii (Streamlets) oil depot, located near the railway station.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/3/7418230/
It’s the Russians’ turn to be forced to get used to the sort of life their Dear Leader has gratuitously chosen for them. Ukrainians have been forced to make that adjustment for the past 18 months now.
P1:
Nope. If that’s how the vote falls, then so be it.
I’m not entirely sure what you are basing that assumption on, however.
PageBoi:
Yeah, that’s, um, that’s a fair point.
Bystander: “The word “cooker’ seems to come up a lot here, obviously as an insult of some kind. Can anyone please tell me what it means in this context? The last I heard it was something you used to cook your meals.”
The cookers term, in believe, is a Melbourne term. It has two sources; 1: meth cookers. 2: people with cooked thoughts. All those anti-vax protonazi nuffies. During the murduch anti-vax riots, and spring st screechers, the venn diagram of those cohorts was pretty close to a circle. And anyone who took part in that shite knows that both of those definitions apply. There was probably too much vision of it. That’s why it works.
Well, that is a clever trick. Deflecting to the mainlanders having to vote on whether Taiwan can remain a separate and functioning democracy!
If the proposition is that the only legitimate for Taiwan to hive off the mainland is for the mainland to vote for it then, Houston, we have a problem.
Mainlanders do not get to vote on anything. They get democracy ‘Chinese style’ according to the official line of the comrades. That actually means they do not get any democracy at all. They do not get human rights. None.
In any case the comrades’ vote outcome reporting would be as reliable as their reporting on everything else. Further, there is no way that China would let in neutral observers for such a vote. Finally, the vote would be based on ‘information’ flows totally controlled by the comrades.
So, very, very clever deflection!
Bystander
It’s was originally a slang term for someone being out of their mind (as in, being “cooked”) which then became a term used to refer to anti-vaxxers/covid-deniers/Qanon-types during the pandemic. I’m not entirely sure about the context it’s being used in by P1.
Shogun says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:27 pm
Wat Tyler
I’m starting to suspect BW is just an energy vampire feeding on us all.
I recently started watching this show (What We Do In The Shadows). I have caught up pretty fast (now well into season 5). There a quite a few hilarious episodes, especially in the earlier seasons.
———————————————-
Side splitting imo, loved the show.
p1 is just trying to be personally nasty by calling me a ‘cooker’.
‘Cooker’ as a term of insult possibly has multiple origins not all of which are mutually exclusive but some of which hardly seem to connect at all.
One theory was that ‘cookers’ cooked their own meth.
But then there is this meaning of ‘cooker’
http://www.bccdc.ca/resource-gallery/Documents/Educational%20Materials/Epid/Other/CookersQA_Mar182010_.pdf
Ven
“ Shellbell
Do you remember 1985 World Championship of Cricket in Australia?”
Yes, that and the 1987 one day tournament to coincide with the America’s Cup.
We were hopeless in both.
Oh, wait, was P1 suggesting the entirety of mainland China also take part in a hypothetical referendum on Taiwanese independence? Because obviously that’s goddamn ridiculous for multiple different reasons.
‘Asha says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:41 pm
Oh, wait, was P1 suggesting the entirety of mainland China also get a vote as to Taiwanese independence? Because obviously that’s goddamn ridiculous for multiple different reasons.’
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yes and yes
Boerwar:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:07 pm
I think the apposite point is that whatever’s tried, those thus affected will in any event take illicit drugs. Criminalising those who do so is perhaps akin to criminalising mental health disorders, which appears not to be the aim of the Labor/Greens ACT government. Pepys.
Boerwar 7:26pm
“ It all comes down to whether you think Xi has the sole right to run Taiwan just like he has the sole right to run the mainland or whether the Taiwanese have the right to choose their own future.”
Agreed, although even if you hold Xi does not have that right, it also matters how you respond.
Personally I have a deep belief in self determination of peoples, and so if the people of Taiwan want to be a free, independent and democratic country, that should be their right. They are effectively an independent country now, although international diplomacy bends to accommodate different views on that question, to minimise the risk of conflict.
Being a country seems to depend as much on being recognised as one, rather than having any particular characteristic. Thus Taiwan already has more of the characteristics of being an independent country than, say, Vatican City, which absurdly is recognised as one. Of course, China won’t recognise Taiwan as one.
That being said, the next question is how does Australia respond? In my view we should do whatever maximises the ability of Taiwanese to live independent lives (the status quo) without risking war or their loss of that status.
So if Taiwan’s independence is threatened, should Australia go to war with China over it? IMO certainly not alone, or not just with USA. If there was a broad coalition of Asian democracies supporting Taiwan, we should be part of that.
Even then, that would not mean sending ADF troops, or even sending RAN ships into the South China Sea, let alone the the Taiwan Strait. We have too few ships to make a difference, and would make ourselves a target for no benefit.
IMO the best way for Australia to help defend Taiwan, learning from Ukraine, would be to offer diplomatic, financial, and military (logistic) support, as neighboring countries are doing for Ukraine. I.e send food, weapons and ammo.
If an actual war broke out between China and Taiwan, there is a high risk it could escalate and involve neighboring countries. That would be very dangerous, and our response would have to be judged at the time.
James Webb has apparently been looking at Alpha Centauri recently but no news and images have been released. I hope they are finding something interesting. But not too interesting!
Time and tide: it’s 84 years today since the outbreak of World War 2.