Newspoll’s transition period from YouGov to Pyxis Polling is not yet complete, leaving us without a new set of numbers in over five weeks; we are in an off week for the fortnightly Essential Research series; the monthly Resolve Strategic was last with us a fortnight ago; and while Roy Morgan’s two-party numbers should be with us today, I don’t think we get the primary votes until later, and it’s past time for a new post already. So in the absence of new poll results, let’s reheat some old ones, in the shape of the following LOESS trends from the four regular pollsters since the last election, on two-party preferred and the Labor, Coalition and Greens primary vote. Note that the two-party preferred data is based on my own calculation using previous election preference flows, and not whatever the pollster uses for its headline.
Notably:
• Resolve Strategic has been Labor’s best series throughout the term, and to the extent that it appears that may be starting to change, it’s largely down to their most recent result. The series has consistently been higher for Labor and lower for the Coalition than Newspoll, but tracked very closely for the Greens.
• Essential Research has been distinctive in its high ratings for the Greens, who have been tracking at about 14% throughout this year even before excluding the pollster’s undecided component of 5% to 6%.
• Roy Morgan’s Coalition vote took a dive late last year that didn’t register anywhere else, leading me to suspect a methodological change. It’s since been about equal with Newspoll and Essential on two-party (at least until very recently, which may prove an anomaly) and at the high end for all three on the primary vote, which is to say it’s been low for “others”. I can’t be entirely sure about that though, because the numbers in its primary votes table consistently sum to a few points north of 100% (UPDATE: It’s pointed out to me that the table is missing a column for One Nation, whose support you can estimate as the balance of the other columns, not counting the uncommitted one).
‘Mavis says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:43 pm
Boerwar:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:07 pm
I think the apposite point is that whatever’s tried, those thus affected will in any event take illicit drugs. Criminalising those who do so is akin to criminalising mental health disorders, which appears not to be the aim of the Labor/Greens ACT government. Pepys.’
———————————
I like the Dutch model. It has more than half emptied the jails. BUT there is a huge expenditure involved in treating addiction as a medical condition. You can’t have decriminalization without big additional spending.
The background is that the ACT is in the process of doubling its debt.
I am not sure about the details of how supply and access will be organized. My concern is that we become attractive to interstate addicts who have supply problems.
I would hate to think we become a magnet for addicts that will have to be treated in the ACT. As noted above, our mental health services are already woefully inadequate. The wait lists are huge.
A cooker is either a saucepan or a meth head.
If the term ‘cooker’ is being used here by a bunch of Boomers, you can guarantee it’s being used out of context. If Boomer Greens stooges want to refer to me as a saucepan because of how I vote, then meh. Whatever. There are worse things in life.
Shogun and Cronus
I was a fan of the original movie and when they first announced a TV series, I was skeptical of course (I’ve lost count of how many TV adaptations, especially American ones, have been bad) but I was won over by the original trailers for the show, the fact the showrunners were trying to stay true to the comedy of the movie and the fact it has Matt Berry in it – who I don’t think has ever turned in a performance that doesn’t make me laugh.
If I am being honest, I think it has passed its peak and probably has a season (maybe two) left in it before they should consider wrapping up but that’s not unusual. Comedies only have a certain shelf-life before they get stale and, if they stick around, they have to rely more on stunts, meta-humour and feel-good moments to keep their audience around. Once they’re seeking applause over laughter, it’s all over.
The meth head context of cooker predates covid antivaxxers. With covid it was a match made in heaven. It came out of those riseup rallies. The murdoch antivax spring street st screeching nuffies were the same people. It’s not like they were a new thing. And they do look like a bunch meth heads because… well… the obvious reason. That’s the way I remember it. Sooooo much misinformation. Covid in Melbourne linked the associations.
Covid gave them too much time to spend on the internet. Gonna take a while to unscramble that egg.
Boerwar
Well, that is a clever trick. Deflecting to the mainlanders having to vote on whether Taiwan can remain a separate and functioning democracy!
Once again, Player One has hit upon a brilliant idea. I know many people regard Player One as a blathering idiot, but this idea is one for the ages – with wide application. Perhaps Russians could vote on whether Ukraine can remain a separate and functioning democracy.
‘Steve777 says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:47 pm
Time and tide: it’s 84 years today since the outbreak of World War 2.’
—————————-
Especially for older Boomers, THE significant event for their lives – even if it happened before they were born.
Younger folk I talk to hardly understand it at all which is probably just as well.
‘Confessions says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:51 pm
A cooker is either a saucepan or a meth head.
If the term ‘cooker’ is being used here by a bunch of Boomers, you can guarantee it’s being used out of context. If Boomer Greens stooges want to refer to me as a saucepan because of how I vote, then meh. Whatever. There are worse things in life.’
————————
haha
nath
James Webb has apparently been looking at Alpha Centauri recently but no news and images have been released. I hope they are finding something interesting. But not too interesting!
I agree!
I think part of the Cooker term also stuck because the prominent Anti-Vaxxer activist Avi Yemini pled guilty to a charge of assault in which he threw a chopping board at his ex-wife.
Not that that was a problem to any of the Sky News anchors who invited him onto their programs as a guest to interview like when they were trying to dox PRGuy for pointing out right wing media hypocrisy in their campaign to try and defeat Daniel Andrews.
‘Socrates says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:45 pm
Boerwar 7:26pm
….’
—————–
Good post, IMO.
Shogun:
Beat me to it!
Steve777 says Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:47 pm
The Chinese, Czechs and Poles might disagree on that exact date.
Shogun @ #1958 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 7:32 pm
Haha.
Classic third Doctor serial. Well the first Peladon story anyway – the second one, IIRC, was a bit rubbish.
‘bc says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:09 pm
Steve777 says Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:47 pm
Time and tide: it’s 84 years today since the outbreak of World War 2.
The Chinese, Czechs and Poles might disagree on that exact date.’
—————————————-
IMO the start date was 1937.
”Especially for older Boomers, THE significant event for their lives – even if it happened before they were born.”
It was significant for us because it had so affected the lives of our parents and those of all of the grownups. My father and most of those of my classmates were Veterans. Many of our “New Australian” neighbours had terrible stories of hardship, terror and loss before they found a life here.
‘Steve777 says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:11 pm
”Especially for older Boomers, THE significant event for their lives – even if it happened before they were born.”
It was significant for us because it had so affected the lives of our parents and those of all of the grownups. My father and most of those of my classmates were Veterans. Many of our “New Australian” neighbours had terrible stories of hardship, terror and loss before they found a life here.’
——————————————————–
Yep. One of the personal stresses of the Ukraine War is the memory stuff it triggers.
Queensland and South Australia’s Labor governments say they want the Albanese government to reverse their decision to block Qatar Airways’ bid to almost double its services to and from Australia. It comes amid mounting pressure on Qantas on a number of fronts.
I’m still disappointed that we never got the Brexit-inspired third Peladon story that Mark Gatiss apparently pitched to Steven Moffat back in 2016/17 or so. (The original Peladan story was, of course, inspired by the then-contemporary issue of the UK joining the EU.)
My date of birth is closer to World War II than to the present (since 2021), so I can say with confidence that I was practically there.
I have looked at parts of around five of the AFLW’s games this round.
Has the available talent been spread across too many clubs?
Quite a bit of the play seemed to be fairly ordinary.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:13 pm
Queensland and South Australia’s Labor governments say they want the Albanese government to reverse their decision to block Qatar Airways’ bid to almost double its services to and from Australia. It comes amid mounting pressure on Qantas on a number of fronts.’
———————————–
What is in it for the states? More inbound tourists? More business for their particular airports?
Asha @ #1968 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 7:44 pm
That would’ve been good. Better than the convoluted lore dumps of the time. The potential of the Capaldi era was so under-used.
Pathetically ignorant gotcha-attempt Shogun. No it is not the same “international community”, because the only thing standing in the way of Palestinian membership of the UN is the United States’ veto. Unlike Palestine, Taiwan not seeking UN membership, let alone is its membership being blocked by a single veto.
Wat Tyler says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:51 pm
Shogun and Cronus
—————————
I thought Matt Berry was a bit over the top in the IT Crowd but was really good in What We Do In The Shadows.
Steve777 @ #1965 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 8:11 pm
My father joined the RAF as an apprentice mechanic only a few days before WW2 was actually declared. What should have been a 3 years apprenticeship became 18 months to get them out to the airfields. He stayed in the RAF and brought o e of the V bombers out here in the 1960s as chief technician
Back in the day the far Left could be counted on to back little democracies like Taiwan against feral dictatorships like China.
Back in the day the far Left could be counted on to back independence movements against the big international bullies.
Back in the day the far Left could be counted on to back human rights.
But not in Taiwan.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:11 pm
”Especially for older Boomers, THE significant event for their lives – even if it happened before they were born.”
It was significant for us because it had so affected the lives of our parents and those of all of the grownups. My father and most of those of my classmates were Veterans. Many of our “New Australian” neighbours had terrible stories of hardship, terror and loss before they found a life here.
———————————-
Agreed, my father served in WWII, it was a thing. He rightly made certain that I understood its significance.
Regarding the decriminalisation of drugs in the ACT; this is what happens when you’re lucky enough to have an electorate composed of highly educated voters. The NSW electorate remains far too stupid for such commonsense policies to be contemplated. But we’ll probably get there eventually, once a sufficient number of bogan boomers have shuffled off.
‘Watermelon says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:29 pm
Regarding the decriminalisation of drugs in the ACT; this is what happens when you’re lucky enough to have an electorate composed of highly educated voters. The NSW electorate remains far too stupid for such commonsense policies to be contemplated. But we’ll probably get there eventually, once a sufficient number of bogan boomers have shuffled off.’
—————————–
Excellent point. NSW Boomers bad. ACT Boomers good.
“ Africa has always been considered the cradle of mankind, where humans evolved from apes on the continent before spreading to the rest of the world.
An intriguing find is challenging the long-standing assumption. The partial skull of a new ancient ape has been discovered in Turkey, and it appears to predate African apes, suggesting that human origins may actually lie in Europe. The fossil of Anadoluvius turkae was discovered in Cankiri, a city about 138 kilometres north-east of Ankara, and is thought to date from about 8.7 million years ago.”
I’ll have to redo my high school science lessons, bugger.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/8-7-million-year-old-skull-suggests-we-didn-t-evolve-in-africa-after-all-20230903-p5e1n9.html
Taiwan’s separation from the mainland is a legacy of the United States’ desperate attempt to destroy the Chinese revolution and prop up the detestable dicatatorship of Chiang Kaishek. It was and remains always a manifestation of US imperialism and no actual Leftist would ever stooge for it.
No, the point is a little more subtle than that. The ACT electorate is by far the most highly-educated in the country, and education levels correlate with progressive politics. A less educated electorate like NSW is unlikely to reach the same stage of progress until the more politically-regressive element of the electorate (i.e. boomers) has declined sufficiently through natural attrition.
‘Watermelon says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:37 pm
Back in the day the far Left could be counted on to back little democracies like Taiwan against feral dictatorships like China.
Taiwan’s separation from the mainland is a legacy of the United States’ desperate attempt to destroy the Chinese revolution and prop up the detestable dicatatorship of Chiang Kaishek. It was and remains always a manifestation of US imperialism and no actual Leftist would ever stooge for it.’
———————————–
So, you would stooge for Xi instead. Figures.
Watermelon says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:21 pm
Out of interest – is this the same “international community” that acknowledges Palestine is NOT a member of the UN?
Pathetically ignorant gotcha-attempt Shogun. No it is not the same “international community”, because the only thing standing in the way of Palestinian membership of the UN is the United States’ veto. Unlike Palestine, Taiwan not seeking UN membership, let alone is its membership being blocked by a single veto.
_______________
You could believe what Watermelon writes, or the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan) in this article in an Indian paper: https://www.dailypioneer.com/2023/sunday-edition/taiwan—s-inclusion-in-un-needed-for-global-peace.html
Oh dear!
‘Watermelon says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:44 pm
Excellent point. NSW Boomers bad. ACT Boomers good.
No, the point is a little more subtle than that. …’
————————–
Mate you had a little fun with hoping the NSW Boomers die off. Nothing subtle about that. Nasty vicious stuff. You were dopey enough not to get it that ACT Boomers overwhelmingly support the ACT Government, have kept in power for a couple of decades, and support drug decriminalization.
No Boer. In the 60s, it was the reactionaries who saw Taiwan as a a valid state (indeed, as “China”) The Left saw it as a US client and proxy of dubious sovereignty.
Taiwan was of course our ally in supporting the “self-determination” of that other client state, South Vietnam.
I am sure you would have thought that anyone who suggested the sovereignty of Vietnam was determined through a decision of the whole population was cooker material
Tactical boo boo by Dutton today. It’s just confusing. I don’t understand the thinking.
Cooker seems to mean, “Not only do I disagree with your views, I think you are a moron for having them.”
DB Cooper says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:53 pm
Cooker seems to mean, “Not only do I disagree with your views, I think you are a moron for having them.”
_____________
So that is why PlayerOne uses it so often 🙂
Lynchpin
I don’t understand Dutton’s thinking. Every possible advantage I can think of, & there aren’t many, is negated by the complications he’s created for himself. Now it’s his turn to have to explain. “The detail, Pete, where’s the Detail mate??…”
Goodness me, all these people who want to live in the past.
Next thing you know they will be telling me that the European empires should be re-instated.
Vietnam, for the nonce, is run as a one party state. It is not a democracy. There are no human rights. Say the wrong thing there and you in deep, deep trouble.
Things change.
The present situation is that the mainland is run by a murderous megalomaniac by way of a police state. There are no human rights. There is zero democracy. Fact. Fact. Fact.
Taiwan has a functioning democracy. Peeps there have a democracy. They have human rights. Fact. Fact. Fact.
There is a polite fiction that the China includes Taiwan. Fact.
The key facts on the ground (Xi loves facts on the ground when it suits him, BTW) are that China and Taiwan function as separate states. More importantly, they are increasingly functioning as separate nations with separate values and separate histories.
Xi has promised to invade Taiwan if it does not do what he wants. Fact. He is building the military means so to do. Fact. Sooner or later he will calculate that the risk is worth taking and off he will go. Guess. The comrades have already published lists of Taiwanese leaders, and their families, who will be subject to stern measures when Taiwan is conquered. Fact.
What, if anything, Australia should do about that should be getting more serious public policy debate than it is getting.
I recognize that ACT boomers are, on average, more educated and progressive than boomers in NSW, and more likely to support sensible policies like drug decriminalisation.
What I’m saying is that for the NSW electorate to get to where the ACT electorate is now is not going happen until a bunch of boomers die off. This is because boomers are the main component of the electorate (and for that matter, the Labor Party) that would oppose such policies.
Those of us who would like to see the ACT’s drug policies implemented nationally will need to wait.
‘Lynchpin says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:51 pm
Tactical boo boo by Dutton today. It’s just confusing. I don’t understand the thinking.’
——————————————
Agree. I listened to a replay of Dutton’s Sky interview. I suspect that he may have been caught on the hop by the Sky questioner. Dutton’s recognition referendum promise sort of popped out as a consequence of an interruption.
Unless you think China should be debating what to do in the event of, say, Tasmanian independence, it really should be getting much less public policy debate than it’s getting. It’s not our business, or the business of any of the White gangster-states who murdered millions in Vietnam and Iraq in the name of “democracy”
I would love to see two referenda.
1. Taiwanese referendum to decide whether they would prefer to be run by Xi or whether they would prefer to run themselves.
2. A mainland referendum to decide whether they want a representative democracy or would prefer to continue to be run by Xi until he dies.
Both would, of course, be accompanied by a secret ballot, a completely free press, the right to gather, the right to free speech, and with a full apparatus of foreign observers to make sure the vote outcomes are kosher.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:03 pm
‘Lynchpin says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 8:51 pm
Tactical boo boo by Dutton today. It’s just confusing. I don’t understand the thinking.’
——————————————
Agree. I listened to a replay of Dutton’s Sky interview. I suspect that he may have been caught on the hop by the Sky questioner. Dutton’s recognition referendum promise sort of popped out as a consequence of an interruption.
_____________
And yet, Littleproud backed another referendum to the hilt. Makes me think it was calculated. Using Hockey’s eleventy calculator.
And then, if calculated, what were the parameters that had changed? Did Dutton gain access to polling?
The Taiwan if the 1960s and 70s can’t really be compared to the Taiwan of today. Back then, it was just as much of a dictatorship as China, and was pushing the ridiculous proposition that they were the “real” China. Today, Taiwan has been a democracy for over thirty years, and contemporary governments have been increasingly backpedaling away from the idea that they are anything but Taiwan.
Watermelon says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:07 pm
What, if anything, Australia should do about that should be getting more serious public policy debate than it is getting.
Unless you think China should be debating what to do in the event of, say, Tasmanian independence, it really should be getting much less public policy debate than it’s getting. It’s not our business, or the business of any of the White gangster-states who murdered millions in Vietnam and Iraq in the name of “democracy”
________________
You are on fire tonight! 🙂
Speaking of which, I wonder how Firefox is going?
Edit: I should say I don’t think watermelon is Firefox.
https://youtu.be/br8dB_0z3Fk?si=R2H5Dal7PZbpIXbG
Brought a tear to my eye. Great ad.
‘Watermelon says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 9:07 pm
What, if anything, Australia should do about that should be getting more serious public policy debate than it is getting.
Unless you think China should be debating what to do in the event of, say, Tasmanian independence, it really should be getting much less public policy debate than it’s getting. It’s not our business, or the business of any of the White gangster-states who murdered millions in Vietnam and Iraq in the name of “democracy”’
——————————————
This really is a screwed up post.
Australia as a functioning democracy has a righteous vested interest in fostering and protecting democracy and human rights globally.
China can have a full and frank debate about Tasmanian independence any time it wants.
That said, Tasmania and Taiwan are not even remotely analogous.
If you are going to cite murderous wars as a way of delegitimising any further action ever by anyone then you would certainly be disqualifying China for its murder of 600,000 Tibetans. Or you could disqualify the comrades for the Mao-inspired deaths of mainlanders: far, far more than died in Vietnam or in Iraq.
Oh, and your notion that only ‘white gangsters’ do truly large killings is infantile.