Pollster’s progress (open thread)

A summary of the form of the four regular federal voting intention poll series since the last election.

Newspoll’s transition period from YouGov to Pyxis Polling is not yet complete, leaving us without a new set of numbers in over five weeks; we are in an off week for the fortnightly Essential Research series; the monthly Resolve Strategic was last with us a fortnight ago; and while Roy Morgan’s two-party numbers should be with us today, I don’t think we get the primary votes until later, and it’s past time for a new post already. So in the absence of new poll results, let’s reheat some old ones, in the shape of the following LOESS trends from the four regular pollsters since the last election, on two-party preferred and the Labor, Coalition and Greens primary vote. Note that the two-party preferred data is based on my own calculation using previous election preference flows, and not whatever the pollster uses for its headline.


• Resolve Strategic has been Labor’s best series throughout the term, and to the extent that it appears that may be starting to change, it’s largely down to their most recent result. The series has consistently been higher for Labor and lower for the Coalition than Newspoll, but tracked very closely for the Greens.

• Essential Research has been distinctive in its high ratings for the Greens, who have been tracking at about 14% throughout this year even before excluding the pollster’s undecided component of 5% to 6%.

• Roy Morgan’s Coalition vote took a dive late last year that didn’t register anywhere else, leading me to suspect a methodological change. It’s since been about equal with Newspoll and Essential on two-party (at least until very recently, which may prove an anomaly) and at the high end for all three on the primary vote, which is to say it’s been low for “others”. I can’t be entirely sure about that though, because the numbers in its primary votes table consistently sum to a few points north of 100% (UPDATE: It’s pointed out to me that the table is missing a column for One Nation, whose support you can estimate as the balance of the other columns, not counting the uncommitted one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,058 comments on “Pollster’s progress (open thread)”

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  1. I think Dutton’s plan is to bring up the sad history of ATSIC.
    The argument will be that a recurrence can be more easily dealt with if the voice is legislated rather than constitutionally enshrined.

  2. Since we’re evaluating how deadly the ‘white gangster states’ have been in the wars they’ve raged, let’s look at some historical context. Here are the deadliest wars in human history, in terms of absolute numbers (geometric mean estimate from all available estimates):

    1. World War 2: about 90 million
    a. ‘non-whites’ killed by ‘whites’ (guessing about two-thirds of Japanese deaths; half of Indian deaths; maybe quarter of Dutch East Indies & French Indochina deaths): about 5 million
    b. ‘non-whites’ killed by ‘non-whites’ (guessing basically all Chinese and Korean deaths; three quarters of Dutch East Indies & French Indochina deaths; half of Indian deaths; one third of Japanese deaths): about 30 million

    2. Mongol invasions and conquests: about 40 million
    a. ‘non-whites’ killed by ‘whites’: 0
    b. ‘non-whites’ killed by ‘non-whites’: (vast majority of victims were in Asia): maybe 35 million

    3. Taiping rebellion in China: about 30 million (all ‘non-whites’ killed by ‘non-whites’)

    4. European colonisation of the Americas: about 25 million (all ‘non-whites’ killed by ‘whites’)

    5. Transition from Ming to Qing in China: about 25 million (all ‘non-whites’ by ‘non-whites’)


    I’m sure there is a lot that can be unpacked from this, but my quick take is that, in wars and armed conflicts at least, ‘non-whites’ have been killed by other ‘non-whites’ in much greater numbers than they have by ‘whites’. The Mongols and Imperial Japan have been the chief offenders, along with fratricidal warfare within imperial China, especially under the Qing.

  3. Boerwar @ #1917 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 7:09 pm

    Her assertion was that she was ‘forced’ to skip meals.
    I do not accept that assertion.
    She has choices about priorities.
    And, if all else fails, there are emergency food distribution centres that serve meals.

    But her TV is really neither here nor there. You can’t tell from the picture if it’s a $2000 LG or a $300 Kogan/TCL, for one thing. TV’s are long-term one-off purchases, for another. Just because she scraped together a couple hundred to a couple thousand dollars to buy a TV at some point in the past ~5 years or so doesn’t mean she’s got adequate/disposable income now.

    However, you can tweak the image URL to get a higher resolution version of the photo, like:

    And while the TV says nothing about whether or not her complaints around involuntarily skipping meals are legit, the two-tiered snack-laden cart in front of the TV kinda does.

    So…fair enough, I guess.

  4. Apart from the anomaly of the US, in this world there is a clear correspondence between poverty and religiosity. Perhaps this is explained by the role of religious organisations in poor countries providing social services. Perhaps this is explained by rich, arrogant, white people in wealthy countries having no need for faith or a belief in the afterlife because their money gives them their heaven here on earth. I knew a woman from The Congo in my teaching days who told me of seeing her sister shot in the head in the market. She was Christian and absolutely convinced she would see her sister again in heaven. I do not believe in God or heaven but would never make snide and nasty ‘sky fairy’ comments regarding other people’s beliefs. It’s also worth noting that the poorer countries tend not to be white. So, in my opinion, the obsessive atheists on this site are not only rich, white and arrogant but also racist. At about this time last night Been There actually used the word ‘primitive’. That same poster then claimed that science now explained everything. One of my sons is a physicist and he would disagree with you.

  5. Asha @ #2032 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 9:47 pm


    No, you disingenuous knob, I think that only the people who are actually residents of the nation seeking self-determination should actually vote in a referendum about seeking self-determination.

    You need to be a bit more specific. Are talking the nation of China here? Because Taiwan is not currently recognized by the UN – or by many individual countries – as a nation. It is a territory.

  6. Asha says:
    Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 7:16 pm

    I haven’t bought a TV since my aforementioned Changhong died in around 2011 or so, though I haven’t really had to on account of my housemate owning one. We haven’t bothered with broadcast TV for well over a decade. Whats the point?
    Ms 98.6 and I did not have a TV in the house for 7 years after we married.
    Unfortunately, we now have 3 hanging off walls.

  7. You would have thought Woody was bright enough to keep his mouth shut.. apparently not… or is his new film that bad he needs to generate publicity .. any publicity.

    Woody Allen defends Spanish football boss over World Cup kiss

    Director Woody Allen says Spanish football chief Luis Rubiales should not lose his job for forcibly kissing a player on the lips after the Women’s World Cup final, saying it was not like he murdered someone or burnt down a school.

    “He wasn’t raping her,” the veteran American filmmaker said in an interview with Spanish newspaper El Mundo. “It was only a kiss and it was a friend. What’s wrong with that?”

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