Newspoll’s transition period from YouGov to Pyxis Polling is not yet complete, leaving us without a new set of numbers in over five weeks; we are in an off week for the fortnightly Essential Research series; the monthly Resolve Strategic was last with us a fortnight ago; and while Roy Morgan’s two-party numbers should be with us today, I don’t think we get the primary votes until later, and it’s past time for a new post already. So in the absence of new poll results, let’s reheat some old ones, in the shape of the following LOESS trends from the four regular pollsters since the last election, on two-party preferred and the Labor, Coalition and Greens primary vote. Note that the two-party preferred data is based on my own calculation using previous election preference flows, and not whatever the pollster uses for its headline.
Notably:
• Resolve Strategic has been Labor’s best series throughout the term, and to the extent that it appears that may be starting to change, it’s largely down to their most recent result. The series has consistently been higher for Labor and lower for the Coalition than Newspoll, but tracked very closely for the Greens.
• Essential Research has been distinctive in its high ratings for the Greens, who have been tracking at about 14% throughout this year even before excluding the pollster’s undecided component of 5% to 6%.
• Roy Morgan’s Coalition vote took a dive late last year that didn’t register anywhere else, leading me to suspect a methodological change. It’s since been about equal with Newspoll and Essential on two-party (at least until very recently, which may prove an anomaly) and at the high end for all three on the primary vote, which is to say it’s been low for “others”. I can’t be entirely sure about that though, because the numbers in its primary votes table consistently sum to a few points north of 100% (UPDATE: It’s pointed out to me that the table is missing a column for One Nation, whose support you can estimate as the balance of the other columns, not counting the uncommitted one).
I admit I have Foxtel, Stan, Netflix, Apple+, Disney +, Amazon Prime, Paramount, and AMC. I may have a problem.
Rex Douglas @ #1845 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 5:00 pm
It’s genuinely depressing. There’s no floor for them. I miss the old days when the centrist rusted-ons at least pretended to care and offer their neoliberal panaceas, as weak as they were, as a solution. Now it’s just punching-down on the poor and severe paranoia about Labor’s hold on power being undermined by even the slightest mention of inconvenient realities.
Watermelon
That’s what makes this whole argument so dumb. The fact that Taiwan is part of China is officially acknowledged by the entire international community
Out of interest – is this the same “international community” that acknowledges Palestine is NOT a member of the UN?
Rex Douglas @ #1849 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 5:34 pm
If the referendum fails, maybe a reason could be some of the NO voters would be content with a legislated Voice …?
The thing that has to be remembered is that a Legislated Voice has to pass the Senate as well. It’s going to be very difficult to agree on a model that satisfies a majority of it.
This video explains simply enough what happened to previous attempts at Legislated Voices. In the end just a whole lot of torn paper that means nothing.
https://twitter.com/ExposingNV/status/1697007976576594095?s=20
Oakeshott Country says Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 5:26 pm
No, all Australians have a right to self-determination. All Taiwanese have a right to self-determination. All Ukrainians have a right to self-determination. As do the Scottish and Basque.
catprog:
Yep, that too.
I remember when Netflix first exploded, and it really seemed they had found the magic ticket for killing off torrenting. Then platform after platform after platform emerged and each one was just a mountain of dogshit with one or two gems hidden within, and by that point it was just a mildly more convenient version of cable TV.
Streaming worked well when Netflix dominated, as soon as every other company wanted a piece of the pie, that’s when it came apart. I think them rolling out the services during COVID quarantine/lockdown helped boost numbers early because people were stuck inside and bored, but that’s not the case now and people don’t want to waste money on maybe bingeing a couple of shows here or there. And there’s no way it’s viable to produce that much original content if you’re bleeding audience members like that. And they’ve just made the taste more sour with price rises and restrictions on password sharing.
Also, it should go without saying that streaming services are extremely problematic towards writers (and their residual entitlements), and their policies regarding AI (and what that might entail wrt both writers and actors.)
Shogun
Interesting point
With all the arsehattery going on in the US, you might expect that the more rabid would be calling for reversing the Nixon policy. As far as I know, no one has seriously suggested this. The economic consequences of doing so are far too obvious.
Nath:
I used to have Netflix, but I cancelled it about a year ago once I realised the only things I still used it for were Rick and Morty and Ozark, and as good as Ozark is, I can’t see myself rewatching it anytime soon
Now I have BitTorrent. It’s a bit more cost-effective.
Asha @ #1856 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 5:14 pm
Mid-to-late 2010s Netflix was great. You got to binge old shows (whose syndication costs were pennies to Netflix at the time) and the original content was genuinely enjoyable (and the costs were justifiable.) It was a great time.
And it did reduce the amount of torrenting because it turns out a lot of people pirate out of convenience, not because they just want everything for free (there will always be those who will pirate because they want to, regardless of the cost or convenience of getting it legitimately)
On Taiwan and past colonial history, doing the wrong thing in the past does not justify continuing to do the same in the present. Just because it was a Chinese or Dutch colony in the past does not mean it should revert to one now.
During the post war “anti-colonial” period when most European powers gave up most of their distant colonies, there was a lot of community pressure to relinquish colonies in favor of local self-determination on moral grounds. I see no credible reason why those same moral arguments do not also apply to China now.
Q: A nasty afternoon on bludger today.
Indeed…downward envy and criticism is revolting.
We do not know what that woman’s circumstances were…maybe she had a messy divorce and got a few nice things, maybe a business failure, maybe a health incident….people become dependent on welfare for many reasons, sometimes from a position of wealth.
Maybe someone just gave her a nice TV……
Good for you
I think you should agitate at your branch to change the party’s policy.
BTW did the Sudetendeutsch have the right of self-determination? What about the Sud-Tyrölese?
Wat:
Sadly, I can’t disagree with that.
Though the customary “random cranks on the internet are not the spokespeople for their chosen political party” disclaimer does still apply here. I know that internally there are many, many good people in the ALP who take this very seriously and are fighting hard for action from state and federal governments (along with, unfortunately, some Boerwars doing all they can to put their fingers in their ears and pretend everything is fine.)
Also I think proponents of the “Yes” vote should memorize this sentence on what legally defines an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person, as a simple legal definition that originated from the 1980’s.
The Boltian question of “Who really is an Indigenous person anyway?” is resonating with a lot of uncertain voters, so that’s at least one argument to be put down.
So……. will we get a Newspoll tonight? Asking for several friends.
Further on ethics and foreign affairs, Dr Doolittle posted this earlier:
“ For who else is complicit in the Saudi regime’s international crimes, see:
“Despite years of documentation of unlawful attacks, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Spain, Germany, Australia, and other countries continued to license the sale of weapons and military equipment to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other coalition members.”
I strongly agree. If Australia is going to have a larger defence manufacturing sector, then it is high time some ethical constraints are imposed, or our claims will sound rather hollow. At present our defence strategy documents, vague as they are, speak glibly about “shared values” without really defining what they are. Presumably they might include democracy, free trade and respect for individual human rights. The trouble is that any credible list of such values would probably exclude regimes like Saudi Arabia as well as China and North Korea.
I have mentioned here before that the Swedish and German Greens have developed som very sensible rules on weapons manufacture and exporting. Australia should do the same.
The other interesting thing about this debate about post-colonialism, freeing the Taiwanese blah, blah, blah is that ROC still officially claims to be the government of China. No one has declared independence and there is no popular consensus on eventual sovereignty.
Wat:
Absolutely.
I think torrenting become especially big in Australia due to how long it used to take for US shows to air here and how hard it became to avoid spoilers if you spent any time whatsoever online or knew anybody who already did download. It was a nightmare for shows like Lost. By the time the free-to-air networks starting simulcasting, it was too late: everyone below a certain age had already given up on broadcast TV and watched exclusively through torrents and DVDs.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive success in the past two weeks, by the numbers:
Ukrainian territory liberated: 47.1 sq km (3.4 sq km per day)
Russian soldiers eliminated: 7,190 (513.6 per day)
Russian tanks eliminated: 130 (9.3 per day)
Russian armoured combat vehicles eliminated: 214 (15.3 per day)
Russian artillery systems eliminated: 337 (24.1 per day)
https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/49.3079/37.9282
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/3/7418211/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/20/7416298/
Griff says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 1:23 pm
….
Complex. Here is an interesting (preprint) causal graph analysis from Europe that may interest.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.18.22275036v2.full.pdf
Thanks for the link. The conclusion seems to be; it’s complicated.
When it comes to my observation,”you don’t see BMI issues in the CBD”, this observation also extends to the CBD homeless, and there is no shortage of people to observe on the CBD streets.
I have been told by some0one who works in the sector, the real housing problem in social housing where rent is 25% of your income. That sector that really does need government support as there is no capital return. If you look at the CBD sample, (assuming they are on the streets, because they can’t find housing) they do not have a BMI problem and they do not have a large TV.
I suspect it is possible to find someone who claims rent stress and who does not have a BMI issue and does not have a large TV. Why does the ABC select such people is my question? The selection is not a one off.
Asha @ #1865 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 5:57 pm
What is your threshold ?
When do you draw the line and say no more I’m voting differently next time ?
Socrates says Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 5:52 pm
I agree, and to Russia as well.
nath @ Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 5:22 pm
“Ashasays:
And after those meals have been eaten? What gets sold then? The fridge? The bed? The kids?
_____________________
Sell the kids for food
Weather changes moods
Spring is here again
Reproductive glands
He’s the one
Who likes all our pretty songs
And he likes to sing along
And he likes to shoot his gun
But he knows not what it means
Knows not what it means”
============
What I like about having fellow Gen X’ers on the blog is the pop culture references I actually get.
The economically secure Green voter who probable have never considered visiting the suburbs, reaching for the vapors is interesting. These are the people supporting a party blocking Labor supporting social housing.
‘Oakeshott country says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 5:04 pm
If the Dutch did “own” Formosa, they weren’t very good at keeping it. Not enough Guilder to put up with being attacked by the Han (and apparently at one stage the Spanish)’
———————————–
It was a pirate ‘king’. Not the ‘Han’. The Spanish butted in, as was there wont.
There are all sorts of polite diplomatic fictions that make our world go round.
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:00 pm
The other interesting thing about this debate about post-colonialism, freeing the Taiwanese blah, blah, blah is that ROC still officially claims to be the government of China. No one has declared independence and there is no popular consensus on eventual sovereignty.
Perhaps the Chinese Communist Parties lack of legitimacy is why CCP wants to take Taiwan.
Polite fictions aside, I would be perfectly happy with a national plebiscite for people in Taiwan to decide their future.
If they want to throw in their lot with Xi, so be it.
If they would prefer not to get in bed with a murderous megalomaniac and keep going with their democracy, so be it.
Oh god, the moralists are on about uncaring centrists again. If only everyone were as self-proclaimed ‘good’ as they are.
BW:
Now, on this one I do agree!
In an ideal world, all border disputes would be decided through referenda.
Boerwar @ #1881 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 5:51 pm
Yeah, imagine that. Imagine being so full of yourself, you do shit like, I dunno, posting 200 times a day – often saying the same shit over and over again on whatever topic you’re hyperfixated on, harassing people about shit they weren’t talking about, demanding they defend straw man positions and act like an absolute pompous know-it-all about everything, despite clearly knowing sweet FA about most of the shit you claim expertise on. Imagine that. Boerwar.
Boer
The ROC’s has not renounced its claim to the mainland and the KMT, in particular, look for a long term rapprochement.
So you suggestion of a referendum is moot.
The comparison to post-colonialism is just historically ignorant.
An incisive article about the harmful idea that poor people shouldn’t be entitled to leisure time:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/08/britain-poor-people-leisure-victorian-workhouse
Happy father’s Day to any bludger fathers out there
It’d be great to have some fresh polling, but I am very pleased to see the yes campaign with some momentum and a spring in it’s step after the launch, I’m feeling a bit more confident now
Had an absolutely wonderful father’s day myself, no kids anywhere near by, in fact I was 30km offshore gamefishing and what a cracker! We’d marked 8, hooked 6 and landed 2 Marlin by lunchtime, could have done better but we’re unlucky with a few strikes not setting hooks . Saw a couple of whales (not too close thankfully) and many dolphins playing with the boat, birds working and bonito leaping, just magical
Boerwar 3:53 pm
“ Just as england was very pleased to allow dominion troops the privilege of doing a lot of dying for the empire so russia is very pleased for ethnically non-russian citizens of the federation to do the same. I have not seen figures for this but I assume it reduces the political pressure on Putin in russia proper.”
———————————
Interestingly, you might recall the Russian battalion I mentioned that recently lost 300 soldiers in 48hrs down in Kherson on the east bank of the Dnipro River. They showed a photo and every single soldier appeared (to my untrained eye) to be from the central or eastern parts of Russia, very Asian in appearance. It was quite striking compared to what I’d expected. And they were by there own admission poorly trained, armed and protected.
Albo is right to rule out legislating the voice post a failed referendum. Would look pretty shady in terms of ‘hey voters, i know you just said no but we’re doing something very similar anyway’ and tank his political capital. Im sure the ALP hive mind is thinking up an ‘ok here’s where we go from here on reconciliation’ strategy, but it wont be a voice.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:30 pm
Boer
The ROC’s has not renounced its claim to the mainland and the KMT, in particular, look for a long term rapprochement.
So you suggestion of a referendum is moot.
The comparison to post-colonialism is just historically ignorant.’
————————————-
I am not big on legalism as a way of deciding substantive issues*. I am OK with polite fictions as a means of not escalating substantive differences to a crisis point. Makes sense, IMO.
If the KMT want ‘rapprochement’ (aka Xi’s my way or the highway), so be it.
Run a referendum on it.
*Neither is Xi, for that matter. He has 100% ignored international rulings and has gone right along with grabbing territories off his neighbours.
Asha @ #1882 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 6:22 pm
If this one were put to a national vote, the outcome would be overwhelmingly in favor of the incorporation of Taiwan into mainland China.
Or should only those on the side of the dispute that you agree with be allowed to vote?
‘Bonnie says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:41 pm
Albo is right to rule out legislating the voice post a failed referendum. Would look pretty shady in terms of ‘hey voters, i know you just said no but we’re doing something very similar anyway’ and tank his political capital. Im sure the ALP hive mind is thinking up an ‘ok here’s where we go from here on reconciliation’ strategy, but it wont be a voice.’
——————————–
The Greens would block it as not being perfect so it is all academic.
Bonnie @ #1888 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 6:41 pm
It will be Treaty and Truth. The ALP has promised.
‘Wat Tyler says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:26 pm
Boerwar @ #1881 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 5:51 pm
Oh god, the moralists are on about uncaring centrists again. If only everyone were as self-proclaimed ‘good’ as they are.
Yeah, imagine that. Imagine being so full of yourself, you do shit like, I dunno, posting 200 times a day – often saying the same shit over and over again on whatever topic you’re hyperfixated on, harassing people about shit they weren’t talking about, demanding they defend straw man positions and act like an absolute pompous know-it-all about everything, despite clearly knowing sweet FA about most of the shit you claim expertise on. Imagine that. Boerwar.’
——————————–
This post is a classic case of potty training gone badly wrong.
Perhaps Bandt and Dutton will join together and legislate a Voice and run a referendum on recognition.
They are joined at the hip on everything else.
@Player 1
Truth yes, Treaty is a long way off after this debate…
Late Riser says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 4:58 pm
Dutton isn’t that devious. The only reason he’s proposing another referendum is because it takes a little of the heat off him and it pushes the whole thing off for another time. (Like he did with the ME plebiscite.) The only “clever” bit is how it gives cover for the NO vote on this one, because we’ll have another one soon.
Now that I’m thinking about that plebiscite, I was disheartened by the hate that emerged from it, and in the end, for what? And that makes me afraid that the next 5 weeks are going to be no different. And that is another reason for not doing this thing twice.
—————————————-
Agreed. The No vote has been quite strident in saying that the referendum is divisive. Logically, a second referendum would be doubly divisive.
‘Nicholas says:
Sunday, September 3, 2023 at 6:33 pm
An incisive article about the harmful idea that poor people shouldn’t be entitled to leisure time:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/08/britain-poor-people-leisure-victorian-workhouse‘
————————————
Everyone is entitled to leisure time and no one is accountable for what they do with the time. That is up to the government to regulate. So, hop into your private jet and go and spend a week-end in a central american eco resort.
Nicholas @ #1885 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 6:03 pm
That’s a good article, and sadly relevant to Australia as well.
@wat Tyler
Indeed – imagine!!!!
Not actually wanting to get into a flame war, but TV and fat shaming someone is a bit of a new low for supposedly progressive ALP supporters, for the very reasons that Asha so eloquently explained
PS Asha, where does one fly the Jolly Roger these days? I’m getting pretty over the streaming experience myself with the major fragmentation of services which all mostly lack a real value proposition, so might be time to set sail again…. I didn’t mind when it was 2 or 3 services, but it’s getting ridiculous now
Bonnie @ #1895 Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 – 6:46 pm
Once non-Indigenous Australian’s accept the Truth, the others will follow very quickly.
That’s why Truth should have come first.