Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 43 (open thread)

Three new federal voting intention results together with Newspoll produce Labor leads of around 53-47 to 54-46.

Federal voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll find both parties down on the primary vote, Labor by two points to 31% and the Coalition down one to 32%, with the Greens up one to 15%, One Nation up two to 7% and undecided steady at 6%. Labor’s lead on the 2PP+ measure is unchanged at 51% to 43%, with the remaining 6% undecided. The poll also features monthly leadership ratings which give Anthony Albanese his weakest numbers since the election, down two on approval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 43%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 43%.

The poll records the no lead on the Indigenous Voice out from 47-43 to 48-42, which is at least a slower rate of decline for yes than other polls of late. Yes includes 30% for hard yes and 12% for soft, with no respectively at 41% and 7%. Small-sample state breakdowns have yes leading 45-44 in New South Wales, and trailing 44-43 in Victoria, 58-35 in Queensland, 58-34 in Western Australia and 45-37 in South Australia. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1151.

Two further sets of voting intention were released yesterday, one being the weekly Roy Morgan, which has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, in from 53.5-46.5 last week. Labor must have done quite a bit better on respondent-allocated preferences than last week, as they are down one-and-a-half on the primary vote 33.5% with the Coalition up two-and-a-half to 37.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

The other is from RedBridge Group, which had Labor leading 54.1-45.9 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 36% and Greens 13%. There is no indication of sample size of field work period that I’m aware, but an accompanying graphic offers breakdowns by gender, age, AEC location category, education, income and language (English or non-English). (UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Sunday and Monday from a sample of 1001.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,093 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 51, Coalition 43 (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 22
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  3. I often feel like the kid in the car saying to their parent. Are we there yet? Lol!

    But the whole Trumpian saga is taking bloody forever.

    I know that there is so much that we don’t have a clear picture of as yet, due to national security implications.

    I have always believed that if it all sees the light of day, MAGA supporters will be beyond shocked. And it will shock even the biggest cynics.

    Time will tell…….

  5. ”
    Steve777says:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 7:18 am

    – Why are most of the men in the photo (Confessions @6:44) looking to their left? Why are several pointing to their
    ”

    ”
    Confessionssays:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 7:42 am
    Why are most of the men in the photo (Confessions @6:44) looking to their left? Why are several pointing to their upper left?

    They are jeering in solidarity with the heckling pharmacists.
    ”

    ”
    Natassia Chrysanthos reports that the Coalition has declined to condemn a rowdy protest by pharmacists in the parliament despite a pointed rebuke from the speaker that the protesters’ jeers and swearing during question time was “very serious and concerning” and a reflection of the MPs who may have invited them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-refuses-to-condemn-jeering-pharmacy-protesters-despite-speaker-s-rebuke-20230905-p5e26d.html
    “

  6. With lib/nats combined primary vote 37% and Labor close , the lib/nats will struggle to keep all of the 56 seats they hold

    If the current primary vote numbers occur on 2025 federal election day
    My guess
    Labor 84+ seats

    Lib/nats 51- seats

  10. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 8:58 am
    I often feel like the kid in the car saying to their parent. Are we there yet? Lol!

    But the whole Trumpian saga is taking bloody forever.

    I know that there is so much that we don’t have a clear picture of as yet, due to national security implications.

    I have always believed that if it all sees the light of day, MAGA supporters will be beyond shocked. And it will shock even the biggest cynics.

    Time will tell…….
    ——————————

    I still recall those in the US dying in hospital of covid, and their relatives, in total denial that covid was the cause. MAGA supporters can believe or deny absolutely anything, they’re entirely irrational.

  11. ‘Natassia Chrysanthos reports that the Coalition has declined to condemn a rowdy protest by pharmacists…’
    ——————
    The MAGA style degradation of our governance continues. The Coalition did not ‘fail to condemn it’. Dutton set it up.
    Bandt urges people to break the law.
    And so it goes.

  13. I’ll tell you why I’m still optimistic about the Voice.

    This is the group with the worst outcomes in the country for health, education, incarceration: you name it. After 235 years of shit, they’ve asked for an elected advisory body *to* parliament.

    Bearing in mind that Maori in neighboring NZ have had seven (7) reserved seats *in* the parliament for 150 years, it’s an astoundingly modest proposal.

    Voting NO doesn’t make you a racist. But it does make you a bit of an arsehole.

    And most Australians are decent, fair-minded folk.

  14. I’d like to commend Lars for attempting to make this a Safe Space for the Right Sort of commenter.

    Pharmacists Union: from Closed Shop to Disruptors.

    At least they didn’t close a lane of a four lane highway, that’d be worth imprisonment.

  15. Thanks again BK.

    We know that the LNP are in cahoots with the Pharmacy Guild and that the Guild boss (Twomey) is trying to take Entsch’s seat. What we don’t know is whether the disruptive protesters were all genuine pharmacists or included people given white coats by the organisers.

    Natassia Chrysanthos reports that the Coalition has declined to condemn a rowdy protest by pharmacists in the parliament despite a pointed rebuke from the speaker that the protesters’ jeers and swearing during question time was “very serious and concerning” and a reflection of the MPs who may have invited them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-refuses-to-condemn-jeering-pharmacy-protesters-despite-speaker-s-rebuke-20230905-p5e26d.html

  16. “Voting NO doesn’t make you a racist. But it does make you a bit of an arsehole.”

    Indeed, this is the truth that should be wryly whispered across the nation till October 14 – among friends, in workplaces, pubs and BBQs around the nation. Do it with a wink, then move on to other topics, Oz style. It’ll get around.

    I’m starting this rumour now 🙂

  18. BK @ #17 Wednesday, September 6th, 2023 – 7:19 am

    A review of NSW’s energy transition released today says shutting Australia’s largest coal-fired power station, Origin Energy’s Eraring, in 2025 would lead to reliability gaps. Callum Foote reports on a stunning reversal of politics.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/eraring-on-the-side-of-dirty-minns-to-subsidise-australias-biggest-old-coal-clunker/

    I guess it might indeed be staggering … to anyone who has not been paying attention to Labor’s ongoing infatuation with fossil fuels.

    According to Nature Conservation Council Acting CEO Dr Brad Smith “AEMO’s report shows the reliability standard of 99.998% will be met in NSW after Eraring coal power station closes in 2025 so long as existing government schemes are implemented in a timely way.”

    So why pay billions to keep this unreliable and dirty clunker open rather than ensuring existing plans to replace it with clean renewable energy are implemented?

    I think we all know the answer to that one.

  20. ”
    phoenixREDsays:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 8:33 am
    C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 8:25 am

    phoenixRED and Victoria,
    Donald Trump>Roger Stone>Proud Boys and Oath Keepers

    I’m really, really surprised that Roger Stone hasn’t been charged with anything yet.

    ******************************************

    Historically in mob trials it’s start at the lowest rung on the ladder and work upwarda till the pinnacle is reached

    I think there are quite a few more worried Trump supporters …. and Trump himself …….out there waiting the call
    ”

    In the past RICO act waa used for Mobsters (or is it monsters?)

  21. Tony Burke interviewed on Sky News about the Voice – he thinks most Aussies are yet not engaged in the debate and the Yes camp can win them over. Also, he argues that there’s a cohort of Liberal voters out there who are decent and can be persuaded to vote yes by the likes of Julie Bishop, Malcolm Turnball and Julian Lesser.
    Time will tell on all that!

  22. Lefty_e @ Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 9:13 am:

    “This [FN Australians] is the group with the worst outcomes in the country for health, education, incarceration: you name it. After 235 years of shit, they’ve ask for an elected advisory body *to* parliament.

    Bearing in mind that Maori in neighboring NZ have had seven (7) reserved seats *in* the parliament for 150 years, it’s an astoundingly modest proposal.”
    ===================

    Yep. Fancy there are actually those who are getting angry they’re even being asked to agree to something which is so little skin off their own nose, by people who’ve been selectively brushed aside, lectured at or imposed upon by the rest of us for so long.

  24. ”
    Lefty_esays:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 9:13 am
    I’ll tell you why I’m still optimistic about the Voice.

    This is the group with the worst outcomes in the country for health, education, incarceration: you name it. After 235 years of shit, they’ve asked for an elected advisory body *to* parliament.

    Bearing in mind that Maori in neighboring NZ have had seven (7) reserved seats *in* the parliament for 150 years, it’s an astoundingly modest proposal.

    Voting NO doesn’t make you a racist. But it does make you a bit of an arsehole.

    And most Australians are decent, fair-minded folk.
    ”

    Not ‘a bit of ‘ but ‘huge’.
    Remember folks there is no ‘Progressive No’ box to vote in the Voice referendum. There is only ‘No’ box to vote for.
    By voting ‘No’you are voting with Dutton, Littleproud, Barnaby Joyce and the extreme right wing group called ‘Advance Australia ‘, a misnomer like ‘Liberal party ‘ and ‘National party ‘.

  25. The Australian tax commissioner has accused a growing number of profitable small businesses of deliberately avoiding their tax and superannuation obligations, likening tax avoidance to theft.
    Chris Jordan, in an address to the Tax Institute’s tax summit in Melbourne this morning, said it appeared more small businesses were prepared to “roll the dice” and treat debts they owe the tax office as a free loan. The Australian Tax Office is owed $50.2 billion in tax debt. Of that, small business accounts for $33 billion including $23 billion which is unpaid business activity statement debt.
    Jordan, who described attempts to defraud taxpayers as “theft from the community”, said he was increasingly concerned about how certain small businesses were treating their tax liabilities.
    “There are a growing number of profitable businesses who have the capacity to pay their bills but are choosing not to,” he said. “Businesses appear to be de-prioritising payment of tax and super. This is concerning and is out of step with what we know, which is that the vast majority of taxpayers pay on time, and it’s unfair for them that some choose not to.“This needs to stop.”Jordan said accountants and other tax professionals needed to reinforce on their clients that tax was not optional. “We are hearing more and more from tax professionals that some businesses are rolling the dice, treating ATO liabilities like a free loan. This is not acceptable,” he said. “I am calling on the tax profession for support. You can reinforce to your clients they are only the temporary custodians of GST, pay-as-you-go withholding and super guarantee – it’s not theirs. ”

  26. Spot the problem with this article …

    https://johnmenadue.com/power-meltdown-putting-australias-energy-transition-back-on-track/

    It could be this bit …

    It’s quite likely the grid will withstand this summer if maintenance is done to keep the old coal clunkers running and the gas peaking plants are ready for times of highest demand.

    Or it could be in the bio …

    Tony Wood is Energy Program Director at the Grattan Institute. He has been Director of the Energy Program since 2011 after 14 years working at Origin Energy in senior executive roles. From 2009 to 2014 he was also Program Director of Clean Energy Projects at the Clinton Foundation, advising governments in the Asia-Pacific region on effective deployment of large-scale, low-emission energy technologies. In 2008, he was seconded to provide an industry perspective to the first Garnaut climate change review.

    Or … it could be … both.

  27. Q: Oh look there’s Airbus Albo stepping out of his jet onto another red carpet again…

    Just a reminder of which PM demanded and got red carpet plane treatment (before it was hastily stopped)..
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/scott-morrison-red-carpet-raaf-williamtown-visit-fact-check/100139660

    And I think even the Australian populace knows that Albanese (and Wong) are laying the visits on thick and fast is to repair the destroyed relationships across the globe from France to the Solomons.

  28. The current trend in opinion polling of the primary votes

    Currently the swing to Labor of 2 .4% is nearly double of what the swing to Lib/nats are getting 1.3%

  29. ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 9:28 am
    The Australian tax commissioner has accused a growing number of profitable small businesses of deliberately avoiding their tax and superannuation obligations, likening tax avoidance to theft.
    Chris Jordan, in an address to the Tax Institute’s tax summit in Melbourne this morning, said it appeared more small businesses were prepared to “roll the dice” and treat debts they owe the tax office as a free loan. The Australian Tax Office is owed $50.2 billion in tax debt. Of that, small business accounts for $33 billion including $23 billion which is unpaid business activity statement debt.
    Jordan, who described attempts to defraud taxpayers as “theft from the community”, said he was increasingly concerned about how certain small businesses were treating their tax liabilities.
    ”

    And yet L-NP politicians say that there is no ‘wage theft ‘ and oppose current round of Industrial Relations legislation to help ‘gig’ workers ‘.

  30. citizen says:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 9:15 am
    Thanks again BK.

    We know that the LNP are in cahoots with the Pharmacy Guild and that the Guild boss (Twomey) is trying to take Entsch’s seat. What we don’t know is whether the disruptive protesters were all genuine pharmacists or included people given white coats by the organisers.

    Natassia Chrysanthos reports that the Coalition has declined to condemn a rowdy protest by pharmacists in the parliament despite a pointed rebuke from the speaker that the protesters’ jeers and swearing during question time was “very serious and concerning” and a reflection of the MPs who may have invited them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-refuses-to-condemn-jeering-pharmacy-protesters-despite-speaker-s-rebuke-20230905-p5e26d.html

    ___________

    Actually the Guild released a statement that they were not involved as they have agreed to stand down with the decision to bring the next Pharmacy Agreement forward. The stunt was performed by a group mostly from NSW. Let by pharmacy owners and their families and staff. Self proclaimed to be 150-200 strong. They organised the recent march on NSW parliament, for some reason to do with 60 day dispensing. Don’t ask me why as it was not a State decision. But they did have Sussan Ley address them!

    Interesting to see pharmacy politics out in the open. The Guild doesn’t have as imperious sway as in the past. Also evident by the increased number of groups being consulted by the Government for the next agreement. They even asked the Union what they think! First time I think.

  31. Don’t really get the storm over Albo correcting the record. Ministers don’t tell the PM of every decision they make in their capacity (if they did he definitely couldn’t know about it or read every brief on it), and in reality although telling the Qatar one was relatively minor in terms of what was at stake (increasing a cap that Qatar airlines doesn’t even meet), so is unlikely he’d have known unless he actually was intimately involved in some conspiracy for Qantas (very unlikely).

    Always amazes me how the media who sit in parliament all day somehow don’t know how government functions.

  33. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/06/australias-export-of-fossil-fuels-like-selling-drugs-to-maintain-lifestyle-former-top-fire-chief-says

    The former New South Wales fire chief Greg Mullins has accused the Albanese government of an “incomprehensible” decision to continue approving new coal mines despite accepting global heating is adding to bushfire risk.

    In an interview on Tuesday, Mullins – a member of the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action group – likened Australia’s continued export of fossil fuels to selling drugs, after he delivered a briefing to the crossbench about the coming bushfire season.

    Mullins, the Greens and independent MPs including Sophie Scamps are calling for more decisive action on global heating, including tearing up what the International Monetary Fund calculates is $65bn-a-year of fossil fuel subsidies in Australia.

    Agree. Except it’s not really “incomprehensible”, is it? 🙁

  34. Lefty_esays:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 9:16 am
    “Voting NO doesn’t make you a racist. But it does make you a bit of an arsehole.”

    Indeed, this is the truth that should be wryly whispered across the nation till October 14 – among friends, in workplaces, pubs and BBQs around the nation. Do it with a wink, then move on to other topics, Oz style. It’ll get around.

    I’m starting this rumour now
    ______________________________
    I don’t know about you guys, but every time I am out in public, I am singing or humming “You’re The Voice” now 🙂

  37. The Liberals biggest hindrance to winning an election is their leader Dutton. Apparently keeping him on as leader is necessary as it is the only way to prevent the Queenslanders blowing the joint up again. We live in crazy times.

  38. ”
    Griffsays:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 9:37 am
    citizen says:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 9:15 am
    Thanks again BK.

    We know that the LNP are in cahoots with the Pharmacy Guild and that the Guild boss (Twomey) is trying to take Entsch’s seat. What we don’t know is whether the disruptive protesters were all genuine pharmacists or included people given white coats by the organisers.

    Natassia Chrysanthos reports that the Coalition has declined to condemn a rowdy protest by pharmacists in the parliament despite a pointed rebuke from the speaker that the protesters’ jeers and swearing during question time was “very serious and concerning” and a reflection of the MPs who may have invited them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-refuses-to-condemn-jeering-pharmacy-protesters-despite-speaker-s-rebuke-20230905-p5e26d.html

    ___________

    Actually the Guild released a statement that they were not involved as they have agreed to stand down with the decision to bring the next Pharmacy Agreement forward. The stunt was performed by a group mostly from NSW. Let by pharmacy owners and their families and staff. Self proclaimed to be 150-200 strong. They organised the recent march on NSW parliament, for some reason to do with 60 day dispensing. Don’t ask me why as it was not a State decision. But they did have Sussan Ley address them!
    ”

    Even NSW state L-NP Liberal politician Matt Kean addressed them.

  40. ”
    S. Simpsonsays:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 9:42 am
    The Liberals biggest hindrance to winning an election is their leader Dutton. Apparently keeping him on as leader is necessary as it is the only way to prevent the Queenslanders blowing the joint up again. We live in crazy times.
    ”

    SS
    Not ‘apparently’ but it is very close to reality. Queenslanders will almost certainly blow the joint if he is not joint because Queensland LNP is the biggest faction in federal opposition.

  41. I predicted earlier that critics would complain about Albo going off to ASEAN and the G20. And sure enough:

    “ Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, September 6, 2023 at 8:32 am
    Oh look there’s Airbus Albo stepping out of his jet onto another red carpet again”

    This is an important trip. With both Xi and Biden not at the ASEAN summit, it is a great chance for Albo to have more constructive talks with near neighbours.

  44. Player One, if there were a decent left of centre alternative to Labor that would be a good thing, but the Greens are not a decent alternative.

  45. When we talk about the “Liberal base”, there are actually two main bases:

    – Business
    – The Sky News / talkback crowd

    The Dutton persona would be very appealing to the latter.
    The former either don’t care or they hold their nose and vote for their money.

  47. I liked this tweet on Warren Mundine likely becoming a LNP Senate candidate:

    “ Jo Dyer@instanterudite·12h
    Warren claiming his thirty pieces of silver.”

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