Starting off with news relevant to the Indigenous Voice referendum, which according to recent reportage in the Age/Herald could be upon us on October 14:
• The latest monthly SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation survey finds support for the Indigenous Voice* at 52%, down a point from February, with opposition up four to 26%. There has also been a three point drop in strong support to 30% and a four point increase in strong opposition to 17%. Support was over 50% in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and solidly ahead of opposition in Western Australia and Queensland. The poll was conducted April 13 to 18 from a sample of 1200.
• Social researcher Rebecca Huntley writes in The Guardian that recent YouGov research has found only 40% of non-Indigenous respondents believed the Indigenous Voice had majority support among Indigenous people, whereas their polling of 738 Indigenous respondents had support at 83%.
Other news:
• The aforementioned SEC Newgate survey finds the most highly regarded mainland state governments are those of Western Australia and South Australia, followed by the Victorian and newly elected New South Wales governments, with only the Queensland government below water. The federal government has been doing unspectacularly on this measure, which asks respondents to rate them on a six-point scale, but it has steady since the February result while each of the state governments has lost ground.
• Katherine Deves has withdrawn from contention to fill Jim Molan’s New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy, without Warren Mundine having entered the race, for whom she had previously said she would step aside. In Mundine’s absence, the favoured conservative candidate to fill a conservative vacancy would appear to be Jess Collins, who is variously said to be backed by the centre right and conservative state MP Anthony Roberts. Moderates are likely to back state party president Maria Kovacic, but hostility to her among conservatives raises the possibility that another moderate, former state Bega MP and Transport Minister Andrew Constance, will emerge as a compromise candidate.
• Warren Entsch, who has held Leichhardt in Far North Queensland as a Liberal for all but one term since 1996, has confirmed he will retire at the next election. He earlier retired at the 2007 election, at which the seat was won by Labor, but returned in 2010, and did not follow through on his announcement on the night of the 2019 election that the following term would be his last. James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that Pharmacy Guild president Trent Twomey has “long been discussed as a possible successor”, but that he denies any such plans. Entsch says Twomey would be “great in politics, but he would be better in the Senate”, preselection for the Liberal National Party Senate ticket being set for finalisation at the end of June.
• Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the 2022 federal election is looking at recommending increasing to the size of federal parliament as part of its brief to consider the “one-vote one-value” principle, which is presently strained by the Constitution’s guarantee of five seats to Tasmania. Enrolments in these seats would be brought broadly into line with the rest of the country if two further seats were added for each state in the Senate and twice as many seats again added to the House of Representatives, which represents the only permissible increase to the size of parliament given the Constitution’s “nexus” provision, whereby the House must not be more than twice the size of the Senate.
• Broede Carmody of the Age/Herald reports division within the party formerly known as the Liberal Democrats, which can no longer use that name owing to legislation passed before last year’s election, as to whether its new name should be the Libertarians Party, as favoured by New South Wales and Victorian state upper house members John Ruddick and David Limbrick, and the Liberty and Democracy Party, which the party used at the 2007 federal election and which is favoured by former Senator David Leyonhjelm.
* The wording of the question: “The federal government is planning to hold a referendum to update the Australian Constitution and create an Indigenous Voice representing the views of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander People. This would be a permanent advisory body to the Federal Parliament on issues relevant to Indigenous people but would not have the power to create or approve laws. To what extent do you support or oppose the creation of an Indigenous Voice to Parliament?
Amy Remeikis
@AmyRemeikis
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32m
RBA before 2022/23: we are worried about wage growth and hope a tighter labour market will naturally see a correction to low wage growth.
RBA after 2022/23: the tight labour market could see wage growth and we’re worried about a wage price spiral. MUST RAISE RATES
whiy in stead of punsishing ordinary australians whiy dont the government take on the gas cartell for not following the law with the gas caps and cut electrisity myaybi bowen needs to take them onit does not matter about a add campaign the farmasee campaign colapsed when entsch pointed out twomie is a liberal so whiy not false the gas cumpanies to reserve gas for us and bring down power bills
I do feel for Chalmers – he does seem to have fought and lost the internal battle for budget discipline.
Still Keating was in the same position until the “Banana Republic” in 1985. Chalmers really is the hope of the side atm.
if you just look at who are the rba bord members most of them are long time liberal leaning and at least two are on the center for independent studies which included independentpeople like tom switser abc presneter former brendon nelson staffer andthe anti indiginis rights jacinta price
The difference between Chalmers and Keating is the later had Hawke PM in his corner.
It’s hard to believe Albo would be pushing back too hard on spending or be keen to antagonise too many people by raising tax or dumping S3.
“I can imagine a situation where one of our subs comes under fire in Chinese waters and then seconds later re-materialises in Hawaii. That’s the sort of technology we think Scott can help us develop”.
https://theshovel.com.au/2023/05/02/morrisons-defence-role-teaching-aukus-subs-disappear-under-fire/
Aaron newton @ #1505 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 4:15 pm
Aaron
Liberal and Labor donors and backers are invested in stock market fossil fuel (gas) companies and Superannuation funds that invest heavily in fossil fuel companies. Therefore fossil fuel company export profits are a priority.
to all the anti labor poasters a person called scott morrison appointed philoop low andstacked the bord with busines mates charmers is smart with his rba review nowevry one is blaming the rba bord for the rate rises knowing there independent of government this was a point wayne swan should have focused on with the debyt being gfc instead of promising serplusis
Scott @ #1491 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 3:58 pm
Nope. Mid-2020 when it was obvious that “lockdowns everywhere (and especially in China, where all our cheap stuff comes from)” was now a thing. If we’re going to have a useful central bank it needs to be proactive rather than simply reactive.
Scott says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 2:49 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 11:16 am
Young people will be waking up to news JobSeeker looks set to be increased – for over 55s. I really don’t blame them for feeling that they keep being left behind.— Dr Monique Ryan MP (@Mon4Kooyong) May 2, 2023
A clear broken commitment from Albanese.
——————-
During the federal election campaign
I do remember Albanese saying it may not happen in the first budget that all jobseekers will get a rise ,but it may happen in the following 2 budgets ,depending on the economy circumstances
The end of the first term for the federal Labor government is around end of may 2025
So no broken commitment on that front
____________
Rex was relying on Alternative Facts for his analysis.
Lars Von Trier @ #1506 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 4:16 pm
All that revenue lost to tax cuts for the wealthy would come in handy over the next decade.
Ryan should stick to managing out her Chief of Staff. That is going to cost the taxpayer a lot of money.
VE: “Albo is too scared to ban cigarettes,”
Me: “Is banning cigarettes the current policy platform of the greens? Please inform us oh sage.”
VE: “my policy (and that of the greens) is that drugs should be managed for health impact. That means controls of drugs based on harm, combined with harm minimisation activities (injecting rooms, pill testing etc)”
Me: So the policy of the greens is for cigarettes to be only available by prescription? Where is that written down? Or is that the greens are just “too scared to ban cigarettes”?
VE: “@Pi – nice leap of logic.”
I quoted you flash.
Aaron newton says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 3:03 pm
is rex sjust triying to course a debate buy attacking evry single move albanese makes he seems anti labor not even sure if he is a green its better to admit your a liberal like nath basickly has most ofthe labor people hear are upfront about it
____________
Rex is not trying to cause debate. There is neither room nor reason for debate in the Rexiverse, there is only Approved Truth.
Socrates @ #1482 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 3:17 pm
Nice post Soc.
As for the last sentence… this is covered in the RBA review – that the board members werent experienced enough or strong enough to stand up against the exec. Lowe was notably cranky about this part of the review. he doth protest too much methinks.
Dandy Murray says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 3:11 pm
“IMHO, they suck.”
Agreed. They can’t even keep their story straight.
And, Jesus on a bicycle, they have hundreds of thousands of fixed rate mortgage holders rolling on to variable rates over the next 12 months. They don’t know what they effect of that change will be, they are just guessing.
My guess is that these mortgages are held by people who were already pretty tight with their cash so were paying attention to where they could save. If this is correct, they are going to be more sensitive to changes in their loan IRs than the correct cohort on variable rate loans. Kaboom.
“Perhaps there is an argument that they are reacting to a lack of government action in this space with the only tool in their kit (it is the wrong tool but it will eventually smash through). I dont know if that is right (most government levers arent that sharp or fast either), but some in the Australian public will start blaming Albanese.”
Fiscal disinflationary levers involve taking more tax or returning less in tax expenditures. It can be both sharp and fast – fiscal policy is like a gamma knife compared to the sledgehammer of monetary policy. But what politician would do that right now?
Hence the need for an independent RBA setting monetary policy.
Only issue is that the RBA has to be competent.
____________
1) “Jesus on a bicycle”, as sayings go, is up there with “Jesus H Christ on a popsicle stick” – from a character in the movie Fletch.
2) When we give the Coalition a decade, we get the current RBA Board.
Re: the cash rate increase,
Jo Dyer
@instanterudite
·
16m
One can only hope the tirade of white hot rage that greeted the Govt’s cruelly cynical notion to #RaiseTheRate only for those above 55 will give them pause for thought. #auspol
https://www.themonthly.com.au/the-politics/rachel-withers/2023/05/02/generation-extremely-pissed
“As for the last sentence… this is covered in the RBA review – that the board members werent experienced enough or strong enough to stand up against the exec. Lowe was notably cranky about this part of the review. he doth protest too much methinks.”
Suck it up!
This might be the only win they have this year..
Socrates says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 3:47 pm
Afternoon all. I was going to comment on the RBA decision but I just read the last page of comments and I see you have all beaten me to it. Terrible decision.
One third of Australia (mortgagee households) is being punished in the hope that all households plus corporate Australia will cut spending. Futile as well as cruel.
Lowe seems incapable of “reading the room” or “reading the economy”. IMO Lowe’s position is untenable. The RBA should be looking at forward indicators, not just inflation. They paint a much less rosy picture.
Yet I wonder to what extent the composition of the Liberal appointees on the RBA board has influenced this? Lowe is only one vote. Who else agreed to this?
I will not personally suffer from this but my nieces and nephews will.
____________
Lowe is simply doing his job for his LNP mates: plunging the economy into recession under Labor.
Snappy Tom @ #1522 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 4:45 pm
Labor knew Lowe and the RBA were doing a really poor job. Lowe admitted this himself.
This is a disaster for many of those already on the edge.
How have Labor allowed this to happen?
If the government does indeed plan to only increase JobSeeker for the over 55s, then they can say goodbye to a generation of younger voters.
The Greens will be laughing their asses off.
It’s time for Chalmers to use the government’s reserve powers to overule the RBA. And Lowe has got to go.
Tanker Pablo Explodes in the South China Sea | Rescue Efforts Underway | Ship-To-Ship Transfer?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSpp4mnBTU8
Sacking Lowe now would cause absolute panic in the markets.
I note the Qantas Group CEO designate is a long timer, a bean counter, hopefully less affirmative action than the current one, focused on the job, may be the Chair can go next …
One has engineers run manufacturing, medicos surgeries and hospitals, teachers schools …
Lars Von Trier @ #1527 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 4:26 pm
BS
The long term consequences of having LNP governments basically.
Lowe has literally just caused absolute panic in the markets.
Kohler laid it out pretty well recently –
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2023/04/24/rba-chiefs-many-failures/
1% fall in share prices isnt a panic.
An unfunded spendathon next Tuesday night will do the trick.
“Sacking Lowe now would cause absolute panic in the markets.”
So don’t sack him now. Say he’s sacked in September now.
LVT
As if the Liberals didnt spend like a drunken sailor.
Financial markets like stable predictable outcomes. Chalmers has said he would turn his mind to an appointment after June.
Sticking to what you say and delivering it is a basic tenet of stability.
A ‘thrill kill’ now would give off a real banana republic vibe.
Today’s interest rate increase might curtail Chalmers going too far next Tuesday in terms of increased spending in some areas!
I reckon though that something will be announced in terms of rent assistance, that’s my feeling anyway, which might mollify the likes of Rex and others who think this government is just a carbon copy of the previous Morrison government.
I reckon Lowe has done his best to ruin Labor’s budget, and since the consequences of this interest rate rise will probably stall the recovery and also dwarf any “sweeteners” Labor was preparing to serve up, he may well have succeeded.
I reckon he knew his time was up, and just couldn’t resist one last sucker punch.
‘Evan says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 5:16 pm
Today’s interest rate increase might curtail Chalmers going too far next Tuesday in terms of increased spending in some areas!
I reckon though that something will be announced in terms of rent assistance, that’s my feeling anyway, which might mollify the likes of Rex and others who think this government is just a carbon copy of the previous Morrison government.’
——————————–
LOL. Mollify Integrity?
A thought about jobseeker – would raising the level of payments significantly for all recipients, not just 55s and over, be a political beneficial thing for Albanese?
I heard a bit of talkback on 2GB today, the assumption from their listeners is that most people on jobseeker are dole bludgers who really don’t deserve an increase in benefits, whereas hard working tax payers and mortgage holders do deserve a leg up in next week’s budget.
Unfair view, I know, but that’s what you get from the pro Liberal party media.
Latest Morgan.
ALP down 3% to 53.5% on a two-party preferred basis this week while Coalition up 3% to 46.5% as preference flows from the Greens and other minor parties deserted the ALP.
https://roymorganresearch.cmail19.com/t/j-l-eihvjl-ouhituihd-j/
Evan says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 6:34 am
The Essential Poll today must be such a let down for a few in here, Albo going to the Kyle wedding was hardly the great PR disaster some made it out to be.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
While I don’t have any criticism of Albo attending the WEDDING of The Millennium, I would think that he and his minders would think ‘Any publicity is good Publicity’.
Think of all the votes he will get from the Sydney underbelly/underworld.
They no doubt have ways of making offers to voters which they can’t refuse.
Once again, a comment from someone – in this case, Monique Ryan – who clearly has no idea how the system works (or is being deliberately misleading for political effect).
Yes, HECS is going up (no, it shouldn’t, and the rates need review). But no one on Jobseeker/YA or any other government benefit is required to put a single cent towards their HECS debt.
Similarly, no one on Jobseeker (and certainly no one on YA) is trying to enter the housing market. They literally can’t, as banks are forbidden to give mortgages to people on government payments (bitter experience talking here, and all we were doing was trying to have the loan period extended).
Whether or not they’re worried about climate change has very little to do with the Jobseeker/YA payment.
Again, I repeat – for the slower learners in the back row – I’m all for raising the rate (and Ryan’s push, given her stated concerns, should be focussed around the rental allowance). But arguments based on bullshit, as Ryan’s largely are, are not going to do it.
It is not a ‘thrill kill’. We have a review which found problems and suggests solutions. Chalmers needs to act on that review and if he decides the reforms are best done by someone else then now is a good time. No time to waste. The place cant afford more of this unrepresentative, unaccountable dogma.
Now…. interest rates may need to rise again. I would much prefer a reformed RBA to be making that decision.
I reckon the markets would like to see certainty too. So quickly make the changes and get on with it. One foot in and another out is a recipe for uncertainty.
Evan you listen to Sky News /2GB/ conservative media too much – you put 20 kilos on before you know it your Paul Murray and Sprocket is chasing you around with a camera trying to get a snap for his private collection.
The Silver Bodgie @ #1547 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 5:21 pm
Was it the wedding …?
Toyota’s second pure EV started deliveries in China. bZ3 offers a 65 kWh battery and 241 HP, starting at 24,500 USD
On April 25, FAW-Toyota started delivering its second pure EV – bZ3 mid-size sedan. The EV was launched on April 16, and on the same day, Toyota announced it received 5000 orders. The car offers three trim levels, officially starting at 169,800 yuan (24,500 USD) on the first day.
However, customers who purchase the car until July 31 will receive a discount of 15,000 yuan (2,200 USD), so the vehicle effectively starts at 154,800 yuan (22,300 USD).
The car is based on Toyota’s e-TNGA platform and manufactured exclusively by Toyota’s joint venture with state-owned FAW. Despite bZ3 being made by FAW-Toyota, it feels like it’s more BYD-Toyota baby. As the Japanese legacy is behind in the electric vehicle market, they had to buy lots of tech from other EV makers to stay relevant in the Chinese market, where NEV penetration in March reached 34.2%. And BYD offered help.
More –
https://carnewschina.com/2023/04/26/toyotas-second-pure-ev-started-deliveries-in-china-bz3-offers-a-65-kwh-battery-and-241-hp-starting-at-24500-usd/
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 5:27 pm
The Silver Bodgie @ #1547 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 5:21 pm
Latest Morgan.
ALP down 3% to 53.5% on a two-party preferred basis this week while Coalition up 3% to 46.5% as preference flows from the Greens and other minor parties deserted the ALP.
https://roymorganresearch.cmail19.com/t/j-l-eihvjl-ouhituihd-j/
Was it the wedding …?
_______________
Things are stirring in Littlefingers underground lair.
ALP down 3% to 53.5% on a two-party preferred basis this week while Coalition up 3% to 46.5% as preference flows from the Greens and other minor parties deserted the ALP.
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Young people must have left their apartments.