Starting off with news relevant to the Indigenous Voice referendum, which according to recent reportage in the Age/Herald could be upon us on October 14:
• The latest monthly SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation survey finds support for the Indigenous Voice* at 52%, down a point from February, with opposition up four to 26%. There has also been a three point drop in strong support to 30% and a four point increase in strong opposition to 17%. Support was over 50% in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and solidly ahead of opposition in Western Australia and Queensland. The poll was conducted April 13 to 18 from a sample of 1200.
• Social researcher Rebecca Huntley writes in The Guardian that recent YouGov research has found only 40% of non-Indigenous respondents believed the Indigenous Voice had majority support among Indigenous people, whereas their polling of 738 Indigenous respondents had support at 83%.
Other news:
• The aforementioned SEC Newgate survey finds the most highly regarded mainland state governments are those of Western Australia and South Australia, followed by the Victorian and newly elected New South Wales governments, with only the Queensland government below water. The federal government has been doing unspectacularly on this measure, which asks respondents to rate them on a six-point scale, but it has steady since the February result while each of the state governments has lost ground.
• Katherine Deves has withdrawn from contention to fill Jim Molan’s New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy, without Warren Mundine having entered the race, for whom she had previously said she would step aside. In Mundine’s absence, the favoured conservative candidate to fill a conservative vacancy would appear to be Jess Collins, who is variously said to be backed by the centre right and conservative state MP Anthony Roberts. Moderates are likely to back state party president Maria Kovacic, but hostility to her among conservatives raises the possibility that another moderate, former state Bega MP and Transport Minister Andrew Constance, will emerge as a compromise candidate.
• Warren Entsch, who has held Leichhardt in Far North Queensland as a Liberal for all but one term since 1996, has confirmed he will retire at the next election. He earlier retired at the 2007 election, at which the seat was won by Labor, but returned in 2010, and did not follow through on his announcement on the night of the 2019 election that the following term would be his last. James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that Pharmacy Guild president Trent Twomey has “long been discussed as a possible successor”, but that he denies any such plans. Entsch says Twomey would be “great in politics, but he would be better in the Senate”, preselection for the Liberal National Party Senate ticket being set for finalisation at the end of June.
• Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the 2022 federal election is looking at recommending increasing to the size of federal parliament as part of its brief to consider the “one-vote one-value” principle, which is presently strained by the Constitution’s guarantee of five seats to Tasmania. Enrolments in these seats would be brought broadly into line with the rest of the country if two further seats were added for each state in the Senate and twice as many seats again added to the House of Representatives, which represents the only permissible increase to the size of parliament given the Constitution’s “nexus” provision, whereby the House must not be more than twice the size of the Senate.
• Broede Carmody of the Age/Herald reports division within the party formerly known as the Liberal Democrats, which can no longer use that name owing to legislation passed before last year’s election, as to whether its new name should be the Libertarians Party, as favoured by New South Wales and Victorian state upper house members John Ruddick and David Limbrick, and the Liberty and Democracy Party, which the party used at the 2007 federal election and which is favoured by former Senator David Leyonhjelm.
* The wording of the question: “The federal government is planning to hold a referendum to update the Australian Constitution and create an Indigenous Voice representing the views of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander People. This would be a permanent advisory body to the Federal Parliament on issues relevant to Indigenous people but would not have the power to create or approve laws. To what extent do you support or oppose the creation of an Indigenous Voice to Parliament?
nath
Things are stirring in Littlefingers underground lair.
Your little fingers are stirring in your own underground lair. They never seem to stop.
Lars saying that sacking Lowe would panic the markets is probably the best sign that it wouldn’t.
It’s pretty hard for Chalmers to justify using the power to overrule the RBA right after agreeing to a new plan under which the RBA would have even more independence than before (Nick McKim’s writing about this was diabolically bad, but he’s right that it’s a mistake). Lowe perhaps relying on that to push the big red button again after choosing not to tempt fate last month.
I just haven’t seen any reasonable argument for more raises beyond dogmatic belief. There’s no wage-price spiral and increased wages shouldn’t be feared anyway. The RBA official statements seem almost gleeful in running out the country’s saving buffers as if that’s a goal unto itself, and raising unemployment as if that too is a goal unto itself.
The RBA only have a hammer and so by God they want to swing it even if what’s in front of them is a screw or a cap detonator rather than a nail. And it has been that way for months. And Chalmers does seem to be trying to avoid responsibility rather than grasping the bull by the horns.
Arky:
Agree with all of that.
Arky @ #1552 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 5:41 pm
Both of these would have been the goal. Fix runaway inflation by curtailing spending.
The fact that doing it this way impacts mostly the less well off is just a bonus.
aparently hudson has been at the air lyne since 1994 joice was at qantas owned jet star since early 2000s thought olivia worth would have got the job she was joices main media spokesman
nath says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 5:30 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 5:27 pm
The Silver Bodgie @ #1547 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 5:21 pm
Latest Morgan.
ALP down 3% to 53.5% on a two-party preferred basis this week while Coalition up 3% to 46.5% as preference flows from the Greens and other minor parties deserted the ALP.
https://roymorganresearch.cmail19.com/t/j-l-eihvjl-ouhituihd-j/
Was it the wedding …?
_______________
Things are stirring in Littlefingers underground lair.
____________
Someone other than me needs to test Fat Bastard’s stool sample to find the location of said underground lair…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxD2VmZiLJ0
Kevin has the Roy Morgan 2PP much closer on his method of using previous election preferences (Roy Morgan not publishing theirs)
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1653289849754095616?t=27VkTxkW4S00XgZbBZ5Z1w&s=19
Rex @ 4.25
“All that revenue lost to tax cuts for the wealthy would come in handy over the next decade.”
I’m not sure that your suggestion can be assumed as labor committed maintaining the liberal tax sleight of hand to the till 2024.
And ten years ia very long time for retrospective remedial action concerning taxation.
Labor has a longer view and this upcoming budget will partly rectify the years of liberal ineptitude with a view to “righting the fiscal ship” considering the possibility that labor will be in power federally for at least ten years.
”
Dandy Murraysays:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 4:42 pm
“As for the last sentence… this is covered in the RBA review – that the board members werent experienced enough or strong enough to stand up against the exec. Lowe was notably cranky about this part of the review. he doth protest too much methinks.”
Suck it up!
”
Nancy?
”
Team Katichsays:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 4:59 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #1527 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 4:26 pm
Sacking Lowe now would cause absolute panic in the markets.
BS
”
+1
Bonnie says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 5:52 pm
Kevin has the Roy Morgan 2PP much closer on his method of using previous election preferences (Roy Morgan not publishing theirs)
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1653289849754095616?t=27VkTxkW4S00XgZbBZ5Z1w&s=19
____________
IIRC, psephologists like Mr Bonham & Dr Bowe argue that using preference distributions as per the previous election, when applied to current polling primary vote results, is most likely to generate a more accurate 2PP.
So, Bonham gets 54.4 ALP 2PP.
If replicated at an election (it wouldn’t be) this would yield Labor’s biggest victory since WW2.
So, yeah, let’s speculate about leadership…
PS If Labor achieved 53.5%, Morgan’s headline 2PP, this would be their 3rd biggest win since WW2 (behind Chfley 54.1 in 1946 and Hawke 53.6 in 1983).
Roy Morgan is pointing to one obvious thing..
It’s DuttMentum!
”
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 4:50 pm
Snappy Tom @ #1522 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 4:45 pm
Lowe is simply doing his job for his LNP mates: plunging the economy into recession under Labor.
Labor knew Lowe and the RBA were doing a really poor job. Lowe admitted this himself.
This is a disaster for many of those already on the edge.
How have Labor allowed this to happen?
”
I think you know RBA and its board are independent to make decisions monetary policy.
Remember Costello introduced that ‘reform’.
“The Reserve Bank of Australia is responsible for formulating and implementing monetary policy. The Reserve Bank sets the target ‘cash rate’, which is the market interest rate on overnight funds.”
https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/about.html#:~:text=The%20Reserve%20Bank%20of%20Australia,interest%20rate%20on%20overnight%20funds.
Phillip Lowe will announce his decision to resign to pursue other opportunities at an appropriate time.
This may not be far away.
”
Pueosays:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 4:54 pm
Tanker Pablo Explodes in the South China Sea | Rescue Efforts Underway | Ship-To-Ship Transfer?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSpp4mnBTU8
”
Boerwar
Did China blew up the tanker?
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 5:06 pm
1% fall in share prices isnt a panic.
An unfunded spendathon next Tuesday night will do the trick.
”
Ah! Lars raises Debt and deficit bogy/ bogey. Hypocrisy thy name is Lars.
Shogun @ #1551 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 5:40 pm
He also seems to be stalking Bill Shorten to know all this stuff with such certainty. 😐
What the hell is even the point of Morgan if they are going to be this vague about their methodology?
Ven @ #1568 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 6:12 pm
The Two Santas full monty. It’s all Liberal fan club members have got. 😐
”
Evansays:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 5:16 pm
Today’s interest rate increase might curtail Chalmers going too far next Tuesday in terms of increased spending in some areas!
I reckon though that something will be announced in terms of rent assistance, that’s my feeling anyway, which might mollify the likes of Rex and others who think this government is just a carbon copy of the previous Morrison government.
”
Rex and their ilk are never ever mollified vis-a-vis ALP. Rex is never reconciled regarding Rex feelopinion that “this government is just a carbon copy of the previous Morrison government.”
Russians KIA May 1: 460
Total Russians KIA: 191,420
Daily average Russians KIA: 443.1
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/2/7400253/
At least we know Rex isn’t suffering in the current housing crisis, what with the all the rent-free accommodation he clearly has available in the heads of so many many people here.
The RBA raising rates today is the right move in the circumstances of today.
Now being a human and thinking about the past. The real fuckup was the money printer running off the hook during covid. That’s on Lowe and the Banks and the PM SFM.
But i wouldn’t worry too much about the ‘cliff’ some will fold. That always happens. But many people have just been saving in offset accounts for the last few years. They have buffers.
What will suck is just not having any cash. That will hurt business.
I expect more rate rises.
“The RBA raising rates today is the right move in the circumstances of today.”
Not sure about that.
“Now being a human and thinking about the past. The real fuckup was the money printer running off the hook during covid. That’s on Lowe and the Banks and the PM SFM.”
Absolutely!
Asha @ #1574 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 6:23 pm
He’s kinda got you on the hook too in a roundabout way. Commenting on the commenters. 😉
Me too, I guess, because I’m commenting on the commenter commenting on the commenters.
However, I will just say that I would have thought after so many years of that person doing the same thing every day, baiting his hook and casting it into PB and catching big ones, with bait as obvious as the nose on your face, that people would have wised up to it and decided to just ignore it.
Fcs, one individual with a perennial schtick is not going to bring down the federal Labor government. So people should just stop trying to bring HIM down!
Like I do every day now. Only ever so recently I must admit. 😀
steve davis says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 5:09 pm
LVT
As if the Liberals didnt spend like a drunken sailor.
…………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
Thanks to the Liberals,
Australia has a debt of “ONE MILLION DOLLARS”.
What’s that, this isn’t 1969 ?
OK then.
Australia has a debt of “ONE BILLION DOLLARS”.
This isn’t 201o, you say.
OK
Australia has a debt of “ONE TRILLION DOLLARS”.
Thank you Admiral Morrison and drunken sailor
Josh Friedberg.
(Apologies to the Austin Powers Movies.)
Asha @ #1579 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 6:23 pm
Is it a crime to occasionally provoke thoughtful debate …?
Rex Douglas @ Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 6:47 pm:
“Is it a crime to occasionally provoke thoughtful debate …?”
==============
Why, what did Thoughtful Debate ever do to you? (boom-tish)
Sorry for that, I couldn’t resist!
Lol
Rex, I was mocking your detractors, not you. 🙂
Asha @ #1587 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 6:57 pm
I know. Just a rhetorical question.
IF ONLY the debate engendered by that person WAS ‘thoughtful’. 😐
At least Chalmers gets it:
Headline in AFR just now:
Rates increase underscores need for budget restraint: Chalmers
If only Albo supported his Treasurer and didn’t leave Chalmers to carry the can.
Lars Von Trier
The national debt doubled under 9 years of Liberal g9vernment.
It took over 100 years to accumulate the first half.
Give it a rest.
On point statement by Steve Schmidt:
Among the most deficient aspects of political reporting is the lack of coverage about how the organizations around the people who aspire to the presidency actually function at an operational level. There are real disincentives around reporting operational details and human dynamics because access journalism is profit-, not news-based.
My opinion on the increased cash rate by the RBA is that I was 99% sure that they would do just that.
It worries me not one iota whether it did or didn’t as i don’t have a mortgage nor any money in the bank.
Why anyone could not see it coming, including several banks and economists, is beyond me.
In fact, I worry that this country has so many wankers who think they know ‘economics’.
I won’t go into the details of the whys and wherefores except to say that inflation is still at 7%, where as the RBA want it to be at 3%.
Its not rocket science.
HELLO !
Looks like Jim agrees with my take – and no thrill kill of the RBA chief
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has used the Reserve Bank’s shock resumption of interest rate rises to warn that fighting Australia’s 7 per cent inflation rate must come ahead of demands to increase welfare spending in next week’s budget.
“This is a reminder that inflation remains the primary challenge in our economy,” Dr Chalmers said after Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe announced a surprise increase in the cash rate to 3.85 per cent.
“If the government does indeed plan to only increase JobSeeker for the over 55s, then they can say goodbye to a generation of younger voters.”
Not this far out from an election, with two more budgets before then. 🙂
98.6 says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 7:07 pm
My opinion on the increased cash rate by the RBA is that I was 99% sure that they would do just that.
It worries me not one iota whether it did or didn’t as i don’t have a mortgage nor any money in the bank.
Why anyone could not see it coming, including several banks and economists, is beyond me.
In fact, I worry that this country has so many wankers who think they know ‘economics’.
I won’t go into the details of the whys and wherefores except to say that inflation is still at 7%, where as the RBA want it to be at 3%.
Its not rocket science.
HELLO !
Un-employment is at the low end of the band, Inflation at the high end, so it is to be expected.
I went through interest rates at 24% so I have little symphony. If well planned it should only stop principle re-payments and property development.
imacca says:
Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 7:16 pm
“If the government does indeed plan to only increase JobSeeker for the over 55s, then they can say goodbye to a generation of younger voters.”
Have you looked at he unemployment data? It actually isn’t going to effect a lot people. Who are they going to vote for, the greens who are currently blocking social housing development?
Get real.
I’ll agree with Lars, funnily enough, Chalmers making the right noises in my opinion.
Meanwhile Albo is already in the UK, meeting with Rishi Sunak today.
Lars Von Trier at 7.08 pm says :
“This is a reminder that inflation remains the primary challenge in our economy,” Dr Chalmers said after Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe announced a surprise increase in the cash rate to 3.85 per cent.
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98.6 says :
Sorry Lars, You will find that no real economist saw it as a ‘surprise’ that the RBA increased the cash rate.
Probably the RBA wanted to increase it further still but didn’t want to upset the restless natives who just don’t understand how the financial markets operate.
At this moment I will say expect another rate rise next month and the month after.
It would be great to be a greens politician, say whatever shit you like, without any regard to the economic consequences.
“Labor must institute free groceries for a year to end this poverty in our society”.
Three cheers.
I think we could all use a visit about now from “here we go again” and a lecture on financial probity and how his kids were very prudent savers who paid off their mortgage early and those who get into trouble on mortgage debt deserve it for their loose personal financial habits.
So far this is the worse Labor Government I have ever seen apart from the obviously bent ones. It’s just so bone crushingly orthodox and timid on anything other than the Voice and some mild gender policies. Its migration policy is a disaster for poorer and working people. And it won’t do anything real for welfare recipients. But it keeps the tax cuts. What kind of Labor Government is this. As soon as Dutton is despatched these pills are going to change materially.
Historyintime @ #1596 Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023 – 7:25 pm
How entirely predictable from you. 😐
There is simply no evidence that increasing welfare payments is inflationary.
Overheating the property market, given boomers obsessions with property, is inflationary.
Wages getting ahead of inflation can be inflationary.
Of course the present inflation spike is being felt world wide and has next to zero to do with typical drivers of inflation in the Australian context. Rather, the breakdown in supply chains and tight labour markets seem to be the real culprits.
But welfare?
So the reserve bank is just punishing us all, when there is no evidence that our behaviour has anything to do with ‘the problem’. To a hammer, everything starts resembling a nail after a while. It’s time that the government got some new tools.
The Lars Team ™ all fiscal conservatives today. No mention that unfortunate glassing slur.
frednk 7.18pm applying the economic theory of I was bullied at school 25 years ago so I have no sympathy for those who get bullied now.
Apparently Ben Franklin from the Nats will be Upper House President in NSW.
Labor giving up the Dining Room would have hurt. Still the Dining Room was obviously too tempting a prize to pass up for BF.