The looming election drought means there will be a lot more long form analysis on this site going forward, including the return of the Call of the Board series, which only got so far in its region-by-region analysis of seat results at the federal election before Victoria and New South Wales intervened. First though, some unfinished business to follow on from a post in January that combed over the public version of the Liberal Party’s election post-mortem. Now comes the turn of Labor’s post-election review, conducted for the party by Greg Combet, Lenda Oshalem, Linda White and Craig Emerson. This naturally had a happier tale to tell than the Liberal report, but still had to reckon with the party’s lowest primary vote since the Great Depression.
The report says Labor’s tracking and seat polling proved broadly accurate this time, after being scarcely less off the mark than published polling in 2019. It showed Labor’s biggest problem going into the election to be the perception of the Coalition as better economic managers, and its greatest opportunity a feeling that Labor would do better on cost-of-living pressures by lifting wages. Labor responded to these insights with a “sound” campaign of broadcast advertising in which “attacks on Scott Morrison were most effective in his own voice”, and a research-backed online campaign that contrasted with an under-resourced and unplanned Liberal effort that “posted strange content”.
The fall in Labor’s primary vote was attributed to declining trust in government, tactical voting in some seats, a small-target strategy that necessitated a campaign focused on Coalition negatives, and a proliferation of minor party and independent candidates. A purposefully vague campaign theme of a “better future” succeeded in giving the Coalition little to attack, but at a cost of failing to energise soft Labor voters. The report says Labor’s strategies have not traditionally emphasised the primary vote, resulting in a failure to “call out the reckless policies and hollow rhetoric of third parties and communicate the risk of voting for a third party”.
The danger posed by a weak primary vote even in the context of a winning result was illustrated by Dai Le’s win in Fowler, which the report attributes in large part to the support Le received from Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone, who rose to prominence locally in the pandemic and scored 70% in his council re-election bid. Research was needed into why Labor’s vote had also softened in traditionally strong areas of Sydney and Melbourne, and care taken lest they go the way of Fowler.
However, Labor’s biggest weak spot was Queensland, which the report attributes to a failure to get a handle on the state’s regional complexities. The breakthrough in inner Brisbane of the Greens, who gained one seat from Labor and two it was hoping to win, was aided by their deft response to local concerns over aircraft noise and urban infill, although climate change was the main driver of the party’s support. Labor also lost ground in Tasmania, which presented a reverse image of Western Australia in having a Liberal Premier riding high on pandemic management, whom the federal government had not sought to antagonise.
The report tellingly begins with a bullet point summation of where Scott Morrison went wrong during his government’s last term, in recognition that this goes a long way towards explaining the result. The wheels began to fall off in mid-2020 with Morrison’s “major strategic error” of abandoning the bipartisanship of the early pandemic by attacking Labor Premiers more popular than he, which left him badly exposed by the subsequent failures of the vaccine rollout. Labor’s stand-alone campaign in Western Australia exploited the government’s disastrous backing of a legal challenge to the state’s closed borders with election day banners linking Anthony Albanese with Mark McGowan and Scott Morrison with Clive Palmer.
The Liberals’ widely noted problem with women went beyond sexual harassment scandals, the restoration of Barnaby Joyce and Scott Morrison’s impolitic assertion that protesters such as those of the Women’s March for Justice were “being met with bullets” in other countries. Women also bore much of the impact of government decisions including the early termination of free childcare during the pandemic and the exclusion of early childhood educators from JobKeeper. Another own goal by the government was to alienate the Chinese community, who “felt that the actions and rhetoric of Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton meant they were not welcome in Australia and that their businesses would be affected”. By contrast, Vietnamese voters swung against Labor, and not just those in Fowler.
Going forward, the report says the government must prepare for Coalition efforts to defeat it in outer suburban and regional seats, which must be done by providing economic opportunities through Australia’s transition to a “global renewable energy superpower”.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of matters covered in the post. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Thanks William, I think the key to a 2nd term for the government is picking up a seat or two in QLD next time and maybe another seat in Melbourne, like Deakin for instance, and hope the Teals can hold on to most of the formerly Liberal seats they picked up in 2022. An upcoming redistribution in NSW might complicate things a little
Mark McGowan Liberal premier?
If there were a uniform change, and if the current Bludgertrack were replicated in real life, would the Greens hold any of their federal seats?
The ‘Liberal Premier’ in question is Jeremy someone & prior to that was Peter Gutwin, who, like Mark McGowan, was, ‘riding high on pandemic management,’ but represented a ‘reverse image’ to Mark McGowan in that he is;-
A/ Liberal, and
B/ ‘the federal government had not sought to antagonise.’
2025 election forecast:
1) Albanese will not go early.
2)If Dutton is the LOTO the libs will be electorally euthanised.
3) If Dutton is not the leader they will still lose seats.
4) The Teals will hold their seats.
5) The Greens will hold their seats.
6) Queensland could do anything.
7) Rupert Murdoch will be dead.
The ALP’s primary vote problem is a disingenuous beat up from the Libs to hide the fact that they are a coalition. In every election in Australia for the past 20 years the 2PP ALP vote has been the ALP vote plus the Greens plus 2%. (Only 80% of the Greens vote flows through to the ALP but it is more than compensated for by ‘other’)
That said the ALP has to jealously guard its primary vote and just be better.
The Libs are yet to hit rock bottom. They have been the victims of a hostile takeover, and the electorate at large is finally waking up to it. Some of my oldest friends are now quietly conceding that point. At long last people are realising you can’t just vote what your daddy done.
As for some Liberal members advertising as ‘moderates’ – you have got to be joking! The IPA is not a moderate organisation, yet their former leaders call themselves that.
The 2022 election was a seismic shift. Those centrists who couldn’t vote for Shorten because they had been brainwashed by the ‘Bill is Bad’ – poor Bill, (I for one shall be forever grateful for the hit he took for the team) finally shifted their vote.
The Liberal party is all but dead in its current iteration. Something or someone will emerge from the ashes but it is at least a Dutton or two away.
Thank you Mr PB for the excellent article and thread. This should be interesting.
@Boerwar says:
Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 9:28 am
For the swings required for the Greens to lose their seats:
Melbourne GRN vs. ALP 10.15% Margin. (Lib vs ALP swing irrelvent)
—
Ryan
LNP 42,678 42.97
GRN 33,037 33.26
ALP 23,601 23.76
10% margin
—
Brisbane
LNP 45,125 41.48
GRN 32,741 30.09
ALP 30,932 28.43
1% margin
—
Griffith
GRN 38,668 36.37
LNP 36,054 33.91
ALP 31,588 29.71
4% margin ALP/LNP and then LNP prefrences play a role.
—
My guess is Melbourne and Ryan are pretty safe Green.
Brisbane is marginal.
Not sure about Griffith.
Catprog: “My guess is Melbourne and Ryan are pretty safe Green.”
Indeed. 2019 primary vote share +/- BludgerTrack swing:
RYAN
Greens 30.2 -0.8 = 29.4
Labor 22.3 + 4.6 = 26.9
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-177.htm
Brisbane and Griffith are potentially winnable for Labor at the next election. In both seats, the ALP only need a small bump in the primary to get into second place and then win on preferences. However, that also relies on the incumbents not noticeably improving their own primary vote, and first-term crossbench MPs have a tendency to just do that when running for re-election.
The Greens are rather safer in Ryan, I reckon. There arguably is a route to victory for the right candidate in clawing enough votes off of the Liberals to push them to third and then win on their preferences, but I think it’s rather unlikely, especially since I suspect Labor will be running dead this time. Conversely, the Liberals could potentially take it back in a climate where the government’s on the nose, but not if the national results are anything like what BludgerTrack is showing.
The big impediment to Labor winning any of those seats, however, is that while the polling does indicate a substantial swing towards Labor’s national primary vote, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Green voters in these particular seats will be swinging Labor’s way. I suspect much of that swing is more from typical swing voters and moderate-leaning Liberal voters who are alienated by Dutton and comforted by the Albanese government’s quiet competence. Appealing to the centre is probably the smarter strategy for winning and retaining government, but it’s not going to entice many Greens back into the fold.
As for Melbourne, I’d be astonished if Bandt is in even the slightest danger.
Victory Lap Report :
The wheels began to fall off in mid-2020 with Morrison’s “major strategic error” of abandoning the bipartisanship of the early pandemic by attacking Labor Premiers more popular than he, which left him badly exposed by the subsequent failures of the vaccine rollout. Labor’s stand-alone campaign in Western Australia exploited the government’s disastrous backing of a legal challenge to the state’s closed borders with election day banners linking Anthony Albanese with Mark McGowan and Scott Morrison with Clive Palmer.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 agrees :
While Qld was Labor’s weak spot federally in 2022, the voters sure as hell helped state Labor to be re-elected for a third term with an increased majority under Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk in October 2020 just after the time mentioned above.
I’ve been saying to anyone who would listen that not only Morrison but that other liberal secretive trouble maker Berejiklian were attacking PAP and Dan and McGowan ever since COVID-19 started. They worked as a team undermining everything the Labor Premiers did, but the wheels did in fact start to fall off in mid 2020.
Both of them are now in the dustbin of history.
THE LORD WORKS IN MYSTERIOUS WAYS !
https://johnmenadue.com/whats-the-point-of-the-australian-labor-party/
98.6 says:
Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 10:36 pm
Victory Lap Report :
The wheels began to fall off in mid-2020 with Morrison’s “major strategic error” of abandoning the bipartisanship of the early pandemic by attacking Labor Premiers more popular than he, which left him badly exposed by the subsequent failures of the vaccine rollout. Labor’s stand-alone campaign in Western Australia exploited the government’s disastrous backing of a legal challenge to the state’s closed borders with election day banners linking Anthony Albanese with Mark McGowan and Scott Morrison with Clive Palmer.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 agrees :
While Qld was Labor’s weak spot federally in 2022, the voters sure as hell helped state Labor to be re-elected for a third term with an increased majority under Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk in October 2020 just after the time mentioned above.
I’ve been saying to anyone who would listen that not only Morrison but that other liberal secretive trouble maker Berejiklian were attacking PAP and Dan and McGowan ever since COVID-19 started. They worked as a team undermining everything the Labor Premiers did, but the wheels did in fact start to fall off in mid 2020.
Both of them are now in the dustbin of history.
THE LORD WORKS IN MYSTERIOUS WAYS !
____________
So, Ms Snappy & I have relocated to Brisbane, where…
FEDERALLY – Labor can hardly buy a seat: Qld is the only reason the Coalition are still relevant, providing 21 of the Coalition’s 56 MHRs. Yes, 3/8s of the MHRs from 1/5 of the electorate!
STATE-WISE – the Coalition can’t buy govt: they won an election under Joh in 1986, then held govt due to a by-election plus IND support from 1996-98 and won a landslide in 2012 (Can Do!) before handing govt back to Labor in 2015. Yes, Can Do! managed to lose from one of the strongest positions in Aust political history – after one term! The Coalition have governed Qld for just 15% of the time since the 1989 election.
LOCALLY – We live in Brisbane City Council. LNP Lord Mayor plus 19 of 26 Councillors LNP! Yet, at state and even federal levels, LNP really struggle in Brisbane.
Do Qld voters suffer from some kind of political multiple personality disorder?
Can someone please explain Qld politics to me?
William, maybe you could do a case study on Qld…?
QLD is unfathomable electorally.
They are swingers though.
Snappy Tom says:
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 11:24 am
FEDERALLY : Don’t forget 3 green seats
STATE-WISE: Labor got kicked out of office for selling public assets. (And possibly a very poor advertising campagin) Then ‘Can Do!’ went on a public asset selling spree.
To give you an idea of how bad the advertising campagin was. I was struggling with 3 parties ALP,LNP and someone else for 2-5.
I heard an attack ad the weekend before the election from ALP and thought ‘You havn’t put forward a single postive policy’ I cannot vote for you.
Next election with some postive advertisments I am guessing a lot of people like me came back to the ALP.
So, Ms Snappy & I have relocated to Brisbane, where…
FEDERALLY – Labor can hardly buy a seat: Qld is the only reason the Coalition are still relevant,providing 21 of the Coalition’s 56 MHRs. Yes, 3/8s of the MHRs from 1/5 of the electorate!
98.6 says :
Really is weird, no excuses, Labor have to try harder. Perhaps Albo will change their minds in 2025.
Snappy says :
STATE-WISE – the Coalition can’t buy govt: they won an election under Joh in 1986, then held govt due to a by-election plus IND support from 1996-98 and won a landslide in 2012 (Can Do!) before handing govt back to Labor in 2015. Yes, Can Do! managed to lose from one of the strongest positions in Aust political history – after one term! The Coalition have governed Qld for just 15% of the time since the 1989 election.
98.6 says :
At this stage I doubt anyone can beat PAP.
Crisafulli is hardly known outside his electorate office which I happened to drive past this afternoon.
If I think his chances change I’ll let you know.
He is simply a male version of Deb Frecklington who lost badly to PAP in 2020.
Snappy says :
LOCALLY – We live in Brisbane City Council. LNP Lord Mayor plus 19 of 26 Councillors LNP! Yet, at state and even federal levels, LNP really struggle in Brisbane.
98.6 says :
LNP Lord Mayor Shrinner, I hate to say, will be hard to dislodge from City Hall.
I think he’s doing OK, but is helped by the monthly newsletter put in everyone’s letter box where his photos are blazoned all over it.
Snappy asks :
Do Qld voters suffer from some kind of political multiple personality disorder?
Can someone please explain Qld politics to me?
William, maybe you could do a case study on Qld…?
98.6 says :
With an state election due in 18 months time I’m sure you will hear and see more of QLD politics now that you are living here.
Enjoy the ride !
Mabwm says:
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 11:34 am
QLD is unfathomable electorally.
They are swingers though.
……………………………………………………………
98.6 says :
Following politics for 50 years I’ve seen, read and experienced quotes like Mabwm mentions above, not only about QLD but other states who go through similar experiences.
I’ve heard it said about NSW and Vic and sometimes there is no rhyme or reason for it and no matter what the election post-mortems dig up it can keep on happening till it runs its course.
98.6:
“ no matter what the election post-mortems dig up”
I tend to discount the postMortems from political parties. They are often incredible documents. The best postmortems are delivered by disgruntled losing MPs on election night. After that everyone is pushing their own barrow. Dutts for example, egged on by the beetrooter, thinks the answer to the electorate abandoning right wing populism is to embrace more right wing populism.
Election results are rarely a surprise. We have extraordinarily accurate polling in this country. The MSM just ignores it.
Before we get too carried away with optimistic opinion polls, I’d like to point out that we’ve been here before – a first-term government riding high, looking to increase its majority at the next election, only for their vote to plummet when the election actually arrives.
It happened to Rudd/Gillard, it happened to Howard, it happened to Hawke. In fact, I don’t know of a case where it didn’t happen. True, there’s reason to think this time might be different, given the government’s vote is coming off such a miserably low base, but I personally won’t be betting on it.
As for the Greens, the second-term surge will probably see them hold the seats they gained last time, although Brisbane might be in danger if Labor can gain enough votes from the Coalition to lift themselves into second place so they are elected on Greens preferences instead of the other way around.
But that would require a significant Coalition to Labor swing, which for a first-term government would be unusual. See my post above.
Before we get too carried away with optimistic opinion polls, I’d like to point out that we’ve been here before – a first-term government riding high, looking to increase its majority at the next election, only for their vote to plummet when the election actually arrives.
It happened to Rudd/Gillard, it happened to Howard, it happened to Hawke. In fact, I don’t know of a case where it didn’t happen. True, there’s reason to think this time might be different, given the government’s vote is coming off such a miserably low base, but I personally won’t be betting on it.
@EightES
John Howard in 1998 was opposition to the GST but he wouldn’t have been looking to increase his majority anyway. Howard’s win was so divisive in 1996 there was going to be a correction swing back. Julia Gillard in 2010 was the divisive leadership switch, opportunist snap election, and Gillard backers relying on Gillard’s polling for the leadership change that was soft as butter. Bob Hawke in 1984 was a bit before my time. I do understand though Andrew Peacock did well in the debate which peeled off some votes from Hawke. Labor pollster Rod Cameron also suggested Hawke was loved by the public because he was seen as above politics. When he called the snap election high up in the polls it was viewed as opportunistic by the public similar to Gillard. And his gloss of being ‘above politics’ lost its appeal.
On the prospects of an early election:
In 2010 Rudd would have loved to have been able to call an election a few months early. The problem was that it could only have been a double dissolution. With the reduced quotas a DD brings, it could have resulted in a Senate made up of the-gods-know-what. On the other hand, going full-term would have meant a half-senate election and a virtual certainty of a decisive shift Labor’s way (actually Labor + Greens’ way, which was the best to be hoped for under a DD anyway). In the end, he decided to wait, with exhaustively-discussed consequences.
Albanese won’t have that dilemma. He can issue the writs in July of next year for a half-senate election in August (nearly nine months ‘early’), with the knowledge that Labor is almost certain to gain a critical senator in Queensland. If Labor is still high in the polls, he will come under extreme pressure to do just that.
MAWBM at 8.47 am.
Election results are rarely a surprise. We have extraordinarily accurate polling in this country. The MSM just ignores it.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
I agree election results are rarely a surprise and besides the accurate polling, followers of politics usually just know what the outcome should be.
Its in their DNA.
2019 was the obvious recent exception but Albos, Dans, Minns, PAPs and Marks were all known knowns.
I was not at all surprised in FE 2019. The polling was 51/49 in the ALP’s favour despite Scomo being a terrible PM and the coup that installed him being in very recent memory. The result was within the margin of error.
For months Shorten just couldn’t shift the dial.
Obviously I was deeply disappointed and shocked, but I was not surprised.
The US polling in 2016 got it exactly right on percentage votes. The assumption was that vote would secure her the White House. The Assumption was wrong. The polling was right.
Brexit polling was spot on, but they forgot to ask the crucial UK question: Will you actually turn up to vote.
We should thank our lucky stars every day for 3 things:
1) mandatory voting.
2) preferential voting.
3) An independent Federal Electoral Commission.
The US will continue its descent into fascism until they rectify those issues. Add to that they have the gerrymandered Electoral College and 2 Senators per state.
——–
Yes, Previous first term governments have usually suffered a swing against them, that is true. The unique situation we have now is the Liberal Party have imploded. If the ALP can avoid imploding, they will romp home in 202?.
An early election however would be completely stupid. Albo becomes a politician when he responds to that sirens’ song. Even Hawke could not resist.
We should thank our lucky stars every day for 3 things:
1) mandatory voting.
2) preferential voting.
3) An independent Federal Electoral Commission.
Plus 4) voting on Saturdays.
Having US elections on Tuesdays…..ugh
98.6 says:
Monday, May 1, 2023 at 12:27 am
Mabwm says:
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 11:34 am
QLD is unfathomable electorally.
They are swingers though.
……………………………………………………………
98.6 says :
Following politics for 50 years I’ve seen, read and experienced quotes like Mabwm mentions above, not only about QLD but other states who go through similar experiences.
I’ve heard it said about NSW and Vic and sometimes there is no rhyme or reason for it and no matter what the election post-mortems dig up it can keep on happening till it runs its course.
____________
I spent nearly half my life in the Hunter Valley of NSW. There are some constants:
1) The Upper Hunter votes for the Country Party (why change name to Nats?)
2) Newcastle-based seats are 95% likely to elect Labor members
3) Remaining Lower Hunter seats are most likely to elect Labor members
Hence nature balances.
happyez says:
Monday, May 1, 2023 at 7:54 pm
We should thank our lucky stars every day for 3 things:
1) mandatory voting.
2) preferential voting.
3) An independent Federal Electoral Commission.
Plus 4) voting on Saturdays.
Having US elections on Tuesdays…..ugh
____________
I note that, after last federal election, some RWNJs on Sky as well as at least one RW pollster called for changes to our electoral system – like First Past The Post.
Vigilance is needed!
https://newpolitics.com.au/2023/05/01/this-budget-will-reveal/
The US voting on Tuesday was the first step in the conservative gerrymander. It was to allow the wealthy landowners and farmers to go to church on Sunday, travel home on Monday and vote on Tuesday.
It has the added bonus that those pesky workers will have to work and couldn’t take two days off to vote, and business overlords could make the activists work on Tuesday itself.
America is not and never has been a true democracy as far as its Presidency is concerned.
Mabwm says:
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 11:34 am
QLD is unfathomable electorally.
They are swingers though.
…………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
I’ve always thought my vote really doesn’t count to a Labor victory or, dare I say it a ‘Defeat’.
It just nullifies the Tory voter, who like me is not a swinger. (At least in the voting sense)
Roughly 33% of votes automatically go to Labor and 33% go to the Libs/ Nats with the other 34% going with the swingers.
Swingers are the king makers and at the moment they have returned Labor to office, not only federally but in every state of mainland Australia.
On the subject of swingers, I wonder if any Labor swinger ever hooked up with a Liberal swinger ?
Would they know, or even care ?
98.6 says On the subject of swingers, I wonder if any Labor swinger ever hooked up with a Liberal swinger ?
Would they know, or even care ?
In the first instance
I know a couple who deliberately cancel each other’s vote out. Fortunately they are both in their 80s now. He is a bossy boots and she secretly votes the opposite way to that which he tells her she should. Very annoying. A stupid waste of a vote.
In the second instance
Years ago, when I was a ‘staffer’ a colleague hooked up with a young woman at the bar on a Friday night. They were very embarrassed when they recognised each other in the lift on Monday morning. She worked for the Premier and he was with me in the Office of the LOTO! I nearly cried with tears of laughter.
So 98.6 in answer to your question – yes sometimes the swingers do hook up!