Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find little change in headline numbers for Indigenous Voice support, despite the hardening in the Coalition’s position.

The Age/Herald has results from Resolve Strategic on the Indigenous Voice (hopefully to be followed shortly by voting intention results) finding effectively no change since it last asked in late February and early March, with yes steady at 46%, no down one to 31% and undecided steady on 22% (the total falling short of 100% on this occasion due to rounding). Respondents were also given the question without an undecided option, with the sample breaking 58-42 in favour. The accompanying report says a “rolling track of surveys over the past two months, using a larger sample size to allow a state-by-state breakdown, shows a majority in favour of the Voice in each state as well as nationwide”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

A second result on the Indigenous Voice emerges from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, as reported in The Guardian, showing 60% in favour and 40% opposed. However, “hard no” was up three to 26% and “soft no” was down three to 14%, while hard yes was down one to 32% and soft yes was steady at 27%. Essential had hitherto been tracking traditional personal ratings only for Anthony Albanese (as distinct from a separate series in which respondents are invited to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten), but this time there are results for Peter Dutton, who records 36% approval and 44% disapproval. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 51% and up one on disapproval to 36%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1136 – other results, including voting intention, should be available later today.

UPDATE: Essential’s voting intention numbers have both Labor and the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 34% and 31% respectively, with the Greens and One Nation steady on 14% and 6%, from numbers which include a 4% undecided component, down one. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down one to 52%, the Coalition up one to 43% and undecided down one to 4%. Also featured was a series of questions in which respondents were asked to rate Labor and the Coalition according to eight attributes, which produced an effective tie for “trying to divide the country” but was otherwise consistently more favourable for Labor than the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,218 comments on “Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. As the new shadow Indigenous Affairs Minister will Jacinta Price be able to keep up her routine of refusing to talk to any indigenous folk who may have ‘differing views’ whilst pandering to the SkyNoos crowd?

    I expect to see many a shirt-fronting event when she is forced, by stint of her new job, into turning up at various indigenous events and organisations.

  2. Why is the media using Jacinta Prices full name? This is new thing? is this only to signal/highlight her heritage or something?

  3. Karen Andrews in August 22

    Ms Andrews, now the shadow home affairs minister, told the Financial Review she also did not know she’d been ghosted and called on Mr Morrison to resign from Parliament.

    “I had no idea,” she said.

    “I didn’t hear anything from the prime minister, his office or the departmental secretary.

    “I don’t know who knew about this but no-one old me.”

    As for Mr Morrison remaining in parliament, she said, “it’s time to go”.

    “This just can’t continue. There can be no justification for why this was not publicly revealed.”

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/it-s-time-to-go-senior-liberal-demands-morrison-resign-20220816-p5ba4q

  4. Shall we start a countdown until L’arse comes onto the board praising the modern Liberal for our time’s brave decision to promote two ‘genuine’ indigenous people onto his front bench and demanding that Labor lift its game?

  5. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, April 18, 2023 at 9:41 am
    Dutton

    ‘Today I want to announce the following changes to the Coalition Shadow ministry. I’m absolutely delighted that Senator Jacinta Price will take on the role of Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians. Many Australians know Jacinta well. She’s a fighter. She’s a warrior for Indigenous Australians. And she’s a very proud territorian. She’s a former councillor, mayor of Alice Springs and small business-owner. She’s always fought hard to improve the lives of Indigenous women and kids and we’ve seen that in recent days. She’s done an incredible amount of work to tackle tough issues like the scourge of sexual abuse, domestic violence and the crisis in law and order in some Indigenous communities, particularly Alice Springs most recently”
    —————————————————————————————

    If the evidence from her own statements recently can taken as true, Jacinta Price was clearly a very poor deputy mayor whose impact on improving indigenous lives has failed dismally. Neither she nor Dutton can have it both ways so which is it?

    And from what I’ve heard, Price’s comments will do more damage to the No vote than the Yes vote.


  6. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Tuesday, April 18, 2023 at 10:15 am
    Shall we start a countdown until L’arse comes onto the board praising the modern Liberal for our time’s brave decision to promote two ‘genuine’ indigenous people onto his front bench and demanding that Labor lift its game?

    Just about now.

  7. AE, Dutton’s appointment of Liddle as shadow minister for child protection and prevention of family violence seems to be the visual equivalent of a dog whistle.

  8. Ok, so the quasi-National Peter Dutton has given another Cabinet spot to the banjo players.

    Wonder what the rest of the Liberal rump think of Dutton’s capitulation?


    The Nationals leader David Littleproud is speaking in Canberra, praising the lived experience Jacinta Price will bring to the role of shadow minister for Indigenous Australians.

    He also says it’s a “proud day” for his party gaining another cabinet position – Price is a member of the Country Liberal Party, and despite Liberal being in the party’s name, sits with the National Party in federal parliament.


  9. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, April 18, 2023 at 10:20 am
    Ok, so the quasi-National Peter Dutton has given another Cabinet spot to the banjo players.

    Wonder what the rest of the Liberal rump think of Dutton’s capitulation?

    The Nationals leader David Littleproud is speaking in Canberra, praising the lived experience Jacinta Price will bring to the role of shadow minister for Indigenous Australians.

    He also says it’s a “proud day” for his party gaining another cabinet position – Price is a member of the Country Liberal Party, and despite Liberal being in the party’s name, sits with the National Party in federal parliament.

    Sprocket
    In which party caucus does Liddle sit ?

    Also, Nationals got extra shadow Cabinet seat without even asking for it. This is another example which shows Federal Liberals are led by a National party member.

  10. Littleproud talking about Price but most importantly, Nationals gaining an extra shadow cabinet position. (Guardian a few minutes ago)

    The Nationals leader David Littleproud is speaking in Canberra, praising the lived experience Jacinta Price will bring to the role of shadow minister for Indigenous Australians.

    He also says it’s a “proud day” for his party gaining another cabinet position – Price is a member of the Country Liberal Party, and despite Liberal being in the party’s name, sits with the National Party in federal parliament…

    But it is also a proud day for the Nationals. We have been able to secure now our 7th shadow cabinet position.

  11. Arky says:
    Tuesday, April 18, 2023 at 9:53 am
    @Cronus: I never believed the Federal Liberal Party under Dutton would support the Voice either. The most someone like Leeser could have hoped for without being terminally delusional was for a free vote to be granted.
    ————————————————————

    Arky

    A free vote makes sense to me too but clearly not in the binary world of the Libs. Actually, I might’ve been too kind, they’re not even binary, they only say no.

  12. Cronus: “Actually, I might’ve been too kind, they’re not even binary”

    You mean, they’re … non-binary?

    Hush your mouth!

  13. Why has this not being stopped by the AEC its deliberate misleading by a political party

    Price is a member of the Country Liberal party, and despite Liberal being in the party’s name, sits with the National party in federal parliament.

  14. David Littleproud now rubbing Dutton’s nose in it.. the Nats are engaging in the debates, not just being Captain No..

    This is a very big step for the Coalition, but a big step for the National Party in the way we have tried to lead the debate.

    Whether that be asking for a national energy summit only months after being elected, to have a conversation about what energy future looks like.

    Going to the Jobs Summit, being mature sitting at the table giving tactile solutions about how we can move this forward.

    Whether it be a national conversation about vaping and protecting children with better regulations, the Nationals don’t want to be a harping position, we want to bring constructive ideas to this place that will actually shift the dial for those that we represent which are those 30% of Australians that live outside capital cities.

    So a proud day for Jacinta Price and her family, a proud day for the Nationals, but a proud day for the Coalition in a positive step forward in making sure that our conversation about bringing those disadvantaged Indigenous Australian voices even louder to this place.

  15. Scott, the National party was formerly the Country party.

    ‘Country Liberal Party’ might be a relic of that era: the NT equivalent of the LNP.

  16. Littleproud crowing about the Nations vis a vis the Liberals:

    Littleproud is touting the leadership of the Nationals, and making a dig at the senior partner of the Coalition when he mentions “being mature sitting at the table giving tactile solutions” at the Jobs Summit which the Liberals did not attend. Guardian at 12:25

    Littleproud:

    This is a very big step for the Coalition, but a big step for the National Party in the way we have tried to lead the debate.
    Whether that be asking for a national energy summit only months after being elected, to have a conversation about what energy future looks like.
    Going to the Jobs Summit, being mature sitting at the table giving tactile solutions about how we can move this forward.

  17. Far too far to the left for you lot of far right wing war hungry blood thirsty ratbags but in the way Keating crystalised and reinforced my thinking on the anti-china propaganda and its disciples, this video summarises in a pretty nice way my thoughts on public service and ‘consultants’, now I know you lot love consultants but having been one, I’m not a fan:

    https://youtu.be/wacHYAbe30U

  18. Hearing Littleproud boasting just now, he might be wanting to challenge Dutton for the lead role in pushing “no” on the basis the Nats are more competent than the Libs.

  19. Guardian:

    “Price says she is also concerned First Nations communities will be exploited for the purposes of the referendum going forward.”

    Er, yeah. See: Peter Dutton.

  20. The Country Liberal Party is the affiliate party of both the National party and Liberal Party. The Senators have traditionally sat with the Nationals and the MPs with the Liberal Party (not that they have had one for a few years). It is similar to how the Liberal National Party of Queensland operates.

    And No. The AEC has no role in how people sit in parliament. They are merely concerned with how people are presented at the time of elections.

  21. Found this
    The CLP originated in 1971 as a division of the Australian Country Party (later renamed the National Party), the first local branches of which were formed in 1966. It adopted its current name in 1974 to attract Liberal Party supporters
    ——————————————-

    Again it is misleading that there is no mention on the ballot paper of the National party is the representative of the country liberal party in NT

  22. Scott: “Again it is misleading that there is no mention on the ballot paper of the National party is the representative of the country liberal party in NT”

    For older Australians, ‘Country’ is synonymous with ‘National’.

    The Liberal party had the Young Libs. And the Country party had … a youth wing, too.

  23. WeWantPaul
    Yep,one of my friends/colleagues from many years ago worked as a flora and fauna officer in Victoria. He took a package and came back to work the next day, same desk, 4x his previous hourly rate. Great bloke, very knowledgeable about his work and I certainly don’t blame him for taking the cash but in no way was it “economically rational. “

  24. So the spud has gone for the nitrous oxide in his XP Falcon,
    i am expecting a catastrophic engine failure very soon.
    Is it just me , or are littleproud’s eyes to close together..?

  25. Littleproud is far more charismatic than Dutton. He would actually be a far better leader of the opposition than basically anyone the Liberals could put up. That talent pool is a puddle of piss.

  26. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
    Morgan federal ALP 37 L-NP 33 Greens 12 others 18.
    Their 2PP off these primaries 56 (unchanged). My estimate 55.7 (+0.4)

  27. Oliver Sutton says:
    Tuesday, April 18, 2023 at 11:00 am
    Scott: “Again it is misleading that there is no mention on the ballot paper of the National party is the representative of the country liberal party in NT”

    For older Australians, ‘Country’ is synonymous with ‘National’.

    The Liberal party had the Young Libs. And the Country party had … a youth wing, too.
    ——————————————————————
    The point is the Liberal party and national party have been claiming federally, outside of QLD , that they are seperate entity political party , thats why County Liberal Party which has no connection at all with Liberal party but the national party is deliberate misleading

  28. Karen Andrews: “It’s important that the Liberal National party gets the right candidate quickly onto the ground here on the Gold Coast”

    Dutton tried to slink away from Dickson to the Gold Coast a while back, but the local Libs rejected him. Maybe now’s the time to make the move?

  29. Scott – The Liberal Party has always stated that the Country Liberal party is an affiliate party. It is on their website.

    https://www.liberal.org.au/our-structure

    “There is one Division for each of the six states, as well as the Australian Capital Territory. The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party is an affiliate of the Liberal Party.”

    And on the CLP website it states “When the CLP was formed in 1974 it retained its affiliation with the Country Party and in 1979, the Country Liberal Party formally associated with both the National Party of Australia and Liberal Party of Australia. These associations remain to this day.”

  30. Would the Liberal party and national party claim of being seperate entities at a federal level claim hold up in a truth in political advertising , i would say no

    Liberal and national party should be forced into the LNP federally ,

  31. B.S. Fairman
    Littleproud is far more charismatic than Dutton. He would actually be a far better leader of the opposition than basically anyone the Liberals could put up. That talent pool is a puddle of piss.

    This comment is offensive. At your earliest convenience, please apologise to the puddle of piss.

  32. There is no requirement for truth in political advertising.

    The AEC polices two things.

    Misleading an elector about the process of casting a vote – say for example running a social media campaign targeting youth, claiming that the election will be delayed until sunday, to avoid bad weather.

    Naming your party something, so as to confuse voters into voting for you instead of an existing party with a similar name. Country liberal party isn’t in breach of that in the NT, but if you tried to start a country liberal party in any state or territory, where the liberals, LNP or CLP currently exist, you would fall afoul.

  33. Instead of a lib/nats coalition claiming to be seperate political party entities from each other when they are not

    Should be merged into one political entity LNP aka QLD , federally

  34. Karen Andrews: “It’s important that the Liberal National party gets the right candidate quickly onto the ground here on the Gold Coast”

    Dutton tried to slink away from Dickson to the Gold Coast a while back, but the local Libs rejected him. Maybe now’s the time to make the move?

    Is Karen Andrews comments hinting of a potential by-election? I thought she just wasn’t contesting the next election. Andrews is exaggerating the urgency of the LNP getting a candidate quickly in McPherson. I really doubt Labor would be targeting McPherson at the next election.

    Peter Dutton switching to a safer seat in some ways would sound credible (couldn’t be done through a by-election though). If he wants to campaign around the country and not chained down defending marginal Dickson. But as much I don’t like Dutton, I’ll admit it would make it harder for the LNP to hold Dickson if he changed seats. I don’t know if Dutton would want to continue in federal politics if he lost the leadership. He won’t win the election if the LNP lose Dickson which may negate the benefit in changing seats.

  35. Q: , Dutton’s appointment of Liddle as shadow minister for child protection and prevention of family violence seems to be the visual equivalent of a dog whistle.

    Indeed…..Regarding child protection will a journalist ask about the two major areas of child abuse-the family home and Christian institutions, and what she intends to do about that?

    Or just bash aboriginal men….

  36. Ahh, so Karen Andrews DID step down over the Voice debate, even if she’s not quite ready to come out and fully state that.

    Just circling back to Karen Andrews saying that while she supports her party’s position on the voice, she will not be campaigning for a no vote.

  37. A final comment before I head off: dental costs. Unbelievable! I had ot have a crown fitted this week which will cost me $1500 after health fund rebate. That’s nothing.

    Xanthippe has a problem with a front tooth which means she will need an implant to replace it. It is in an awkward position on the corner of her jaw and will need to be done over several visits.

    We have full private health insurance (Teacher Health, union related fund, very good) with the dental option extra. The net cost after rebate will be over $5k!

    This needs to be done and the waiting list in State dental is a joke. We can afford it but it stings after a few other bills and I wonder how many people on average or low incomes could not afford it?

    There needs to be a serious think about dental (and mental health) going into Medicare.

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