Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find little change in headline numbers for Indigenous Voice support, despite the hardening in the Coalition’s position.

The Age/Herald has results from Resolve Strategic on the Indigenous Voice (hopefully to be followed shortly by voting intention results) finding effectively no change since it last asked in late February and early March, with yes steady at 46%, no down one to 31% and undecided steady on 22% (the total falling short of 100% on this occasion due to rounding). Respondents were also given the question without an undecided option, with the sample breaking 58-42 in favour. The accompanying report says a “rolling track of surveys over the past two months, using a larger sample size to allow a state-by-state breakdown, shows a majority in favour of the Voice in each state as well as nationwide”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

A second result on the Indigenous Voice emerges from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, as reported in The Guardian, showing 60% in favour and 40% opposed. However, “hard no” was up three to 26% and “soft no” was down three to 14%, while hard yes was down one to 32% and soft yes was steady at 27%. Essential had hitherto been tracking traditional personal ratings only for Anthony Albanese (as distinct from a separate series in which respondents are invited to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten), but this time there are results for Peter Dutton, who records 36% approval and 44% disapproval. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 51% and up one on disapproval to 36%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1136 – other results, including voting intention, should be available later today.

UPDATE: Essential’s voting intention numbers have both Labor and the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 34% and 31% respectively, with the Greens and One Nation steady on 14% and 6%, from numbers which include a 4% undecided component, down one. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down one to 52%, the Coalition up one to 43% and undecided down one to 4%. Also featured was a series of questions in which respondents were asked to rate Labor and the Coalition according to eight attributes, which produced an effective tie for “trying to divide the country” but was otherwise consistently more favourable for Labor than the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,218 comments on “Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

  1. I actually had a dream last night I got rejected by my crush in the city of Weimar.

    Is this an omen perhaps on the state of Australian politics?

  2. This focus on individuals that supposedly personify some ideal, or are the counter to it, is boring. How people vote is only tangentially related to the talking head that is used to provide sound bites for or against some assertion. This is the path to misinformation; “I’m ok with my beliefs because renowned person X shares these views.” “I’m ok with my beliefs because i stand against person X for Y reason.” What isn’t questioned is the views, only the quasi-interpretation of their advocates. That’s murdoch/trump logic. What you believe is only important if “important” people share or oppose those views.

    I don’t care what Humphries thinks. I don’t care what Howard thinks. I don’t care what Price thinks. I don’t care what Dutton thinks. I don’t care what Albanese thinks either. I care about the final effect of their actions. Focusing on some protagonist or antagonist in your story doesn’t make them a part of some other person’s story. What matters is whether you have an internally consistent way of expressing your position without requiring the individual reproachment. There will always be a person or people who will have a counter position to what you assert. When it gets turned into a choice between people instead of ideas, the person with the biggest speaker almost always wins.

  3. The roommates have got themselves all worked up tonight over “yabba”.
    Cheap lowlife bullying is a thing of the playground and unbecoming for normals.
    The irony of appearing in various guises (al la Humphries) on PB is not lost.
    Both playing a poor small hand!

  4. Political Nightwatchman says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 5:52 pm
    “Not to mention prisoners in jail who won’t have to wear PINK JUMPSUITS, the idea which went out with Newman.”

    @98.6

    When their current leader David Crisafulli lost his seat of Mundingburra in 2015. Even he said after the election that forcing jailed bikies to wear pink uniforms was stupid.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 says :
    Thanks Political Nightwatchman, I am embarrassed to say I had forgotten about David Crisafulli being the member for Mundingburra and served as a minister in Newman’s single term government.
    Crisafulli’s name and photo is not known by the majority of the Queensland public but who can blame them as no sooner did the LNP win in 2012 then they and he, were turfed out in 2015.
    To date he is doing nothing to improve his image in preparation for the election in October 2024.
    I have no feelings for the man because he has zero appeal as a future alternative premier.
    I seriously doubt that he will lead the LNP to the next election but I have absolutely no idea who could possibly take his place.

  5. Player One
    Still catching up on today’s stories.

    Did you read the story about Vladimir Putin being a bloodthirsty genocidal maniac? Or was it lost in all those opinion pieces about America being evil?

  6. yabba @ #1104 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 6:35 pm

    Lars Von Trier @ #280 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 5:57 pm

    Looks like C@t cleaned the floor with poor Yabba. We are amused.

    She made even more of a fool of herself, then pissed off. Just don’t mention North.

    Is dreamimg about a Merc making things bigger, L’Arsy?

    Oh Noes!

    You flatter yourself, yabba.

    I guess someone has to. 😐

    For the information of the slow learners, which seems to be you, yabba, I went to watch my beloved South Sydney play the Penrith Panthers. As I said. You see, I’m not so needy that I have to hang around here to keep denigrating a person when I know they’re no longer around. As you have done above.

    What a sad, obnoxious, little, control freak you are, yabba, as Lars correctly pointed out. And you didn’t like it, did you? Lol.

  7. Disaster US Warship launch.
    View is at the top of the page of the article.

    https://www-independent-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/uss-cleveland-launch-tugboat-collision-footage-b2322306.html?amp=&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16819980230136&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Famericas%2Fuss-cleveland-launch-tugboat-collision-footage-b2322306.html

    The seemingly disastrous launch of a new US Navy warship had it send a massive wave of water crashing over the significantly smaller tugboat used to pull it into the water.

    The US Navy had announced on Friday that it would “christen and launch” the latest Freedom-variant Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) known as the USS Cleveland (LCS 31).

    An old method known as a “side launch” was used for the event at the Fincantieri Marinette Marine shipyard in Wisconsin at 10am on Saturday. The method involves the use of a small tugboat to pull the larger ship into the water with the help of gravity.

    Dramatic footage purportedly from the launch showed the USS Cleveland perilously undulate on the water after sending a wave crashing on the smaller tugboat.

  8. Support for ‘The Voice’ has dropped across Australia in all six States over the last four months and after Liberal Party Leader Peter Dutton announced the party would formally advocate for a ‘No’ vote in the forthcoming referendum due later this year.

    The survey was conducted before the Coalition’s shadow ministry reshuffle this week which led to the promotion of two Aboriginal women, Senator Jacinta Nampijina Price and Senator Kerrynne Liddle, into the shadow ministry including Senator Price as Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians.

    Now a plurality of 46% of Australians (down 7% points since December 2022) would vote ‘Yes’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’, compared to 39% (up 9% points) who would vote ‘No’ and a further 15% (down 2% points) are undecided.

    If the ‘Undecided’ respondents are removed the split in favour of the ‘Yes’ vote is 54% cf. 46%. However, past experience shows that ‘Undecided’ voters are far more likely to end up as a ‘No’ rather than a ‘Yes’ vote. This trend has been observed even over the last few months as ALP and Greens supporters who were ‘Undecided’ have been far more likely to move to the ‘No’ vote rather than becoming a ‘Yes’ vote.

    This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,181 Australian electors aged 18+ over the weekend from Friday April 14 – Tuesday April 18, 2022.

    Respondents around Australia were asked: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?”.

    Only Victoria has majority support for ‘The Voice’ in April while two States now have more people saying ‘No’ than ‘Yes’ (Queensland and South Australia)

    For a referendum to pass in Australia a majority of Australian voters nationally as well as a majority of voters in a majority of States (four out of six) must vote in favour of the proposal.

    The results of this special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on ‘The Voice to Parliament’ show that a slim majority of Victorians (52%) say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’ – the only State with majority support.

    In addition, pluralities of people in New South Wales (46% Yes cf. 38% No), Western Australia (46% Yes cf. 41% No) and Tasmania (38% Yes cf. 33% No) are in favour and say they will vote ‘Yes’.

    There are now two States in which more people are opposed to ‘The Voice’ than in favour. In Queensland a plurality of 46% say they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’ compared to 41% who will vote ‘Yes’ and in South Australia exactly half of people, 50%, say they will vote ‘No’ compared to only 39% who will vote ‘Yes’.

    Support for a ‘Voice to Parliament’ by State:

    Victoria: Yes (52%, down 3%) cf. No (31%, up 3%) cf. Undecided (17%, unchanged);
    New South Wales: Yes (46%, down 6%) cf. No (38%, up 9%) cf. Undecided (16%, down 3%);
    Western Australia: Yes (46%, down 17%) cf. No (41%, up 15%) cf. Undecided (13%, up 2%);
    Tasmania: Yes (38%, down 30%) cf. No (33%, up 9%) cf. Undecided (29%, up 21%);
    Queensland: Yes (41%, down 3%) cf. No (46%, up 8%) cf. Undecided (13%);
    South Australia: Yes (39%, down 15%) cf. No (50%, up 17%) cf. Undecided (11%, down 2%).
    There is a clear political divide on ‘The Voice’ – Support amongst ALP & Greens voters is largely unchanged, but support for ‘Yes’ is down for L-NP, One Nation, Independent and Other Party voters

    There are large differences based on voting intention which have grown since December.

    Support for ‘The Voice’ is virtually unchanged for ALP supporters at 75% (down 1% point since December) and Greens supporters at 89% (unchanged).

  9. Torchbearer wrote:

    Gadsby has probably been the worlds preeminent stand up for two years. She has 2 Netflix Specials that have been hits in 120 countries. She has toured the world non stop for two years.
    She has won an Emmy Award, and Americas highest award for writing.

    She may not be your taste, but her humour is widely appreciated and loved.

    She is about as funny as cancer. She is a living breathing walking cliche. Bullied at school…check. Suffers from a disability (autism)….check. Original too. She wears a suit that is too small for her…wow! Only Alexi Sayle did it 40 years earlier. Did she tell you she’s a lesbian? Ha, ha who would have guessed that? Oh my god Gadsby is not fit to lace Humphries’ shoes, let alone have a go at him.

    P.S. Plenty of shit artists have won Emmies and Oscars.

  10. “Which leads me to L’l Joshy. He is to me the biggest conundrum in Australian political history. Here was a high level competency Treasurer that should have walked him into being a PM but he blew it for loyalty to a meglomaniac. Why? There is loyalty but then he had had zero loyalty to his constituents, his state or his country. And it has led his party into a rabbit hole with no end. It’s beyond baffling.”

    @ParkySPsays

    Josh Frydenberg? High level competency? He was involved in Jobkeeper where 20 billion was wasted being paid to businesses that were not entitled to it. And there was no mechanism for the money to be retrived. Frydenberg loved to attack Labor for debt. Pity the government he served in debt was five times greater then Labor’s and pushed the national debt out to a trillion. And here is one corker from Frydenberg that shows him for the absolute hypocrite that he is:

    “both the Rudd and Gillard governments have displayed their addiction to debt” and that “the messages for Australia are clear: ‘Big government is bad government’ and ‘Live within your means before it is too late.’ ”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/may/02/we-need-to-end-the-fear-mongering-about-government-debt-in-australia

  11. Disaster US Warship launch.

    Disaster?! The SpaceX Starship launch was a “disaster”; USS Cleveland, not so much.

    Starship blew up before stage separation:

    SpaceX @SpaceX

    As if the flight test was not exciting enough, Starship experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly before stage separation

    Looking at the footage, it appears four of the Raptor 2 engines in the booster aren’t lit, and at least a fifth failed/shutdown in flight – not a happy booster. It appears to be spinning out of control:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zw0akWuUu7c

  12. Nitpick: the Starship launch was successful, it was an in-flight failure.

    Apart from counting the engines, seeing red flames in flight indicated there was trouble – probably unburnt fuel from the failed engine(s).

    The four (some say six) unlit/shutdown engines at launch were on one side of the booster, which would have challenged the computers to keep it flying straight; addition engine failures exceeded its ability to compensate.

    There’s speculation that the engines may have been damaged during the staged ignition process e.g. by flying concrete. (No flame trench, no water deluge system.) I’m waiting to see the photos of the tower after launch.

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