Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find little change in headline numbers for Indigenous Voice support, despite the hardening in the Coalition’s position.

The Age/Herald has results from Resolve Strategic on the Indigenous Voice (hopefully to be followed shortly by voting intention results) finding effectively no change since it last asked in late February and early March, with yes steady at 46%, no down one to 31% and undecided steady on 22% (the total falling short of 100% on this occasion due to rounding). Respondents were also given the question without an undecided option, with the sample breaking 58-42 in favour. The accompanying report says a “rolling track of surveys over the past two months, using a larger sample size to allow a state-by-state breakdown, shows a majority in favour of the Voice in each state as well as nationwide”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

A second result on the Indigenous Voice emerges from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, as reported in The Guardian, showing 60% in favour and 40% opposed. However, “hard no” was up three to 26% and “soft no” was down three to 14%, while hard yes was down one to 32% and soft yes was steady at 27%. Essential had hitherto been tracking traditional personal ratings only for Anthony Albanese (as distinct from a separate series in which respondents are invited to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten), but this time there are results for Peter Dutton, who records 36% approval and 44% disapproval. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 51% and up one on disapproval to 36%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1136 – other results, including voting intention, should be available later today.

UPDATE: Essential’s voting intention numbers have both Labor and the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 34% and 31% respectively, with the Greens and One Nation steady on 14% and 6%, from numbers which include a 4% undecided component, down one. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down one to 52%, the Coalition up one to 43% and undecided down one to 4%. Also featured was a series of questions in which respondents were asked to rate Labor and the Coalition according to eight attributes, which produced an effective tie for “trying to divide the country” but was otherwise consistently more favourable for Labor than the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,218 comments on “Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. sprocket_says:

    In an interview with Radio Times, also published today, Humphries made further controversial comments, this time about race. He told the magazine: “Why do you think Downton Abbey is so popular in the States? Because there are no black people in it.”
    ___________________________
    The monster! But what if he’s right?

  2. Ashasays:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 8:21 pm
    Wasn’t Les Patterson meant to be a Whitlam-era minister?
    ___________
    No it was based on a Sydney Labor mayor.

    Les later pretended to be a Whitlam era Minister and then Ambassador to the Court of St James.

  3. nath, you make a valid point – but the semblance that Humphries is a harmless old biddy masks his offensive propensities

  4. ’By Humphries’ own account, the character of [Sir Les] Patterson first appeared in a one-man show that he performed at the St. George leagues club in Sydney in January 1974. Appearing in the guise of the boorish, loud-mouthed and uncultured Patterson, Humphries claimed to be that club’s own entertainments officer as he introduced the next act, Dame Edna Everage. As Humphries recalled, “I understood later that many members of the audience thought Les was genuinely a club official, which says a lot for his charm and sincerity”.’

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_Les_Patterson

  5. sprocket_says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 8:24 pm
    nath, you make a valid point – but the semblance that Humphries is a harmless old biddy masks his offensive propensitie
    ___________
    His is a style that has seemingly had its day. But back in the day, he was exposing views that were largely hidden and he was putting them on stage, showing them to the audience like a mirror.

    In later years, it’s about the cash. But the man was brilliant in his day.

  6. Two opposing views of Humphries (my perception of him is the second):

    Adam Hills@adamhillscomedy · 10h
    Barry Humphries is one of the most important forces in Australian Comedy. None of us would be where we are without him blazing a trail for us all to follow. I’m crossing my fingers and whatever toes I have for a speedy recovery.

    Hannah Gadsby@Hannahgadsby · Jul 23, 2018
    Barry Humphries loves those who hold power, hates vulnerable minorities and has completely lost the ability to read the room. Thats not a comedian, thats an irrelevant, inhumane dick biscuit of the highest order.

  7. Lars Von Trier @ #329 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 8:13 pm

    Yabba I have some concerns.

    You seem to make all of the decisions for your grown kids including deciding their accomodation arrangements and what cars they drive.

    This airbnb post suggests you also decide the holidays , what they eat and end up controlling these too.

    I think its a little unhealthy, controlling a grown child like this. Your thoughts?

    Bullseye, again. Twice in one night.

    Face it L’arsepuppet. Real people have real lives. You can’t even begin to imagine what it’s like.

    You are outdoing even yourself. Is nath proud of you?

    Where can you go now?

    Try fucking camels. It worked for GG. Perhaps you can go find him, and work on it together, in memory of Pell.

  8. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 8:27 pm
    Birds of a feather…

    Yeah, but any photos of Sir Les Patterson and Barry Humphries together, eh?

  9. Tonight I have precipitated the PB Humphries conversation.
    Concomitantly I have so far backed 5 of the 6 winners at Packenham night races.
    What an evening so far!

  10. Hannah Gadsby@Hannahgadsby · Jul 23, 2018
    …. Thats not a comedian, thats an inhumane dick biscuit

    ____________________
    Can you imagine the outrage if Barry returned the insult.

  11. Quite the career…

    Barry Humphries’ latest stage show celebrates the music of the Weimar Republic – radical, risque and ultimately banned by the Nazis. The performer, best known for his monstrous creations Dame Edna Everage and Sir Les Patterson, believes there is no better time to highlight the danger of censorship. Today, Dame Edna’s sly prejudices and Sir Les’s outlandish views (his monologues are peppered with references to spags, slopies, muff-munchers and shirt-lifters) are regarded by many as relics. Some might even regard them as “degenerate”, just as Hitler did the art of the Weimar Republic. As for Humphries, he is scathing about what he calls “the new puritanism”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/jul/11/barry-humphries-interview-offence-dame-edna-everage-sir-les-patterson

  12. Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 8:32 pm
    Stay cool yabba. Angry is so unpleasant. The concerns are still there – unanswered.
    ________
    Worst of all he seems determined to foist recorder music on new generations. Appalling.

  13. Sir Les was created way back to take the mickey out of sexist, racist attitudes – but doesn’t he now risk being seen as the thing he was satirising?
    ________________________
    I think this is fair enough. They style of comedy is outdated and this has occurred, but current perceptions about him are just todays perceptions. It does not give the whole picture.

  14. laughtong says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 8:05 pm
    Question for the ex service people here.
    The Reveille or rouse used at the ANZAC Ceremony for the NRL match is not the one I am familiar with.
    Provided by a Navy musician. Does the Navy use a different Reveille?
    ————————————————————-

    Agreed, it’s not the one I was familiar with in my Army experience.

  15. Kirsdarke:

    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 8:53 pm

    My mother took a call on the switch from Churchill. She never forgot it – if you get my drift.

  16. My mother took a call on the switch from Churchill. She never forgot it – if you get my drift.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    I know Humphries past best mate.
    And can’t shift my drift.

  17. I realized my anecdote didn’t match up from history so I deleted it, I apologize for that. I do remember my grandmother having some unpleasant feelings about Humphries somehow though, she did grow up in about the same East Melbourne area around the same time so I took her word for that.

  18. I do have an anecdote about Humphries from my great aunt.

    She was working in an Op Shop for the Anglican church in East Melbourne and Humphries walked in.

    She paid him no mind and this might have distressed him. He took an interest in a type writer and asked for some paper to see if it worked.

    He then typed the words; Barry Humphries.
    but still my aunt pretended not to know or take an interest in him. He left.

  19. shellbell says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 8:46 pm
    Let it ride, Dr John
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    I didn’t listen shellbell and just won in R8

  20. Kirsdarke, I went to an all-boys school. There was a matching all-girls school twinned. We all went to school together. Maybe your Grandmother was talking generally and didn’t realise that her story, told second hand, would be dissected by someone many years later to make some obscure point about political correctness, on a blog that an anorak subset of the population read (sorry WB and everyone, i’m one too!).

    I missed the Dame Edna craze, i was a kid, i remember my parents chuckling as she skewered pomposity, especially her own.

    I discovered Les Patterson later, he was hilarous. Dealing with the cultural cringe. But by that time, that type of man had died off. Except in New England.

    Sandy Stone is timeless. The best type of shaggy dog story, told with so much pathos and perfect timing.

    Anyway, the oldest gen Y are turning 42 this year, like me!. People born before 1981 will make up more that 50% of the voter next election and i can tell you that very few, know, care or worry about Humpries political views, dadaism or his connections with Howard, Hitler or anyone else.

  21. The Thorpe comments by Albo make you realise just how tight that this government has been. How long between TPs personal comment about Dutton to this.

    He’s only said what most of us think but I’m sure the morning meeting started with him coping a fine. As a one off frustration release I get it but as a PM he should never wade into that kind of commentary ever again. The public can see it well and truly for themselves.

  22. Mavis
    I refuse to remain on this site when Patterson is criticised, his tenure as Chairman of the Australian Cheese Board is a credit to him though I doubt Confessions agrees.

    I vaguely recall that Sir Les Patterson saying that he did not always enjoy sitting on the Cheese Board. Something about those little toothpicks with flags sticking into his arse.

  23. Thanks for clarifying that, G. I’m not familiar with how single-sex schools work, so it might have been something along those lines.

  24. LOL! Just read this …

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/woodside-says-coalition-missed-opportunity-to-influence-climate-policy-20230419-p5d1p6.html

    The head of oil and gas giant Woodside says Peter Dutton’s refusal to engage with the federal government on its signature emissions-reduction bill opened the door to the fringes of politics to influence climate policy after a decade of dysfunction and uncertainty.

    Talk about a backhanded compliment … to the cross bench …

    “If it hadn’t been for your refusal to engage , Labor would have got your policy through intact for you … you moron, Dutton … “

  25. I have a memory from of my great Aunt and Humphries, she was proper English and whenever Dame Edna was on TV would always mutter ” can’t stand the vile woman”, always found it amusing.

  26. Cat at 11.47 am and Andrew_Earlwood at 11.59 am

    ‘“The United States is a democracy. China is not.”

    One of those sentences is correct.’

    Concepts matter. They are not mere slogans. A different comparison, such as “the USA is substantially less authoritarian than China” could not be seriously questioned.

    I remember talking in 1985 in Washington with Michael MccGwire, the leading Western expert on the Soviet navy at the time, as well as the clearest critic of the fallacies of nuclear deterrence theory. He became a mature age student at 42 after an impressive career in the Royal Navy.

    One thing Mike mentioned in passing was that the Americans go on and on about “DEMOCRACY, DEMOCRACY” like it was a marketing slogan.

    Mike liked conceptual clarity. His scepticism about American democracy was similar to the ideas of a leading US political theorist, Sheldon Wolin.

    For Wolin’s critique of the US as merely a “managed democracy” see this essay by Graham Maddox:

    https://johnmenadue.com/the-lessons-from-america-are-stark/

    For Wolin’s significance as a political theorist in the US, see his obituary:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/29/us/politics/sheldon-s-wolin-theorist-who-shifted-political-science-back-to-politics-dies-at-93.html

  27. Q : Memo to Hannah Gadsby… at least Humphries is funny.

    Gadsby has probably been the worlds preeminent stand up for two years. She has 2 Netflix Specials that have been hits in 120 countries. She has toured the world non stop for two years.
    She has won an Emmy Award, and Americas highest Award for Writing.

    She may not be your taste, but her humour is widely appreciated and loved.

  28. Asha says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 10:05 pm

    Try fucking camels. It worked for GG.

    I must have been absent from Poll Bludger that day!
    ______________________

    Was on Poll bludger After Dark

  29. Player One
    Interesting read. We must defeat the real enemy of world peace …

    It was not an interesting read. It was absolute garbage. Unhinged anti-American drivel. Only an idiot would find it interesting. So I can see why you did.

  30. Still catching up on today’s stories. This one about the stage three tax cuts is a cracker … in the sense that it is bound to blow up in someone’s face …

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2023/apr/20/the-stage-three-tax-cuts-are-bad-economic-policy-and-a-dumb-political-strategy-too

    Only those earning more than $100,000 will be better off after the stage-three tax cuts

    The stage-three tax cuts are no good for 75% of income earners

    How’s that for an election platform? Do you think anyone is going to pat the ALP on the back for delivering the stage-three tax cuts as promised?

    The stage-three tax cuts were always the worst economic policy, but the ALP has also turned them into the dumbest political strategy.

    The government should dump the stage-three tax cuts and use the $300bn in savings to deliver fairer cuts, better services and infrastructure, and increased support for those on jobseeker. And with that they could claim their own legacy and credit.

    Labor has a choice of what legacy it wants to leave – as a government that benefited the wealthy 25%, or one that benefited the needy 75%.

  31. I just looked up the list of Australian Treasurers because watching Jim Chalmers on 7:30 just struck me with a sense of his competency and it felt like that was a change.

    So looking at the list my goodness there is dross for years on both sides.

    Which leads me to L’l Joshy. He is to me the biggest conundrum in Australian political history. Here was a high level competency Treasurer that should have walked him into being a PM but he blew it for loyalty to a meglomaniac. Why? There is loyalty but then he had had zero loyalty to his constituents, his state or his country. And it has led his party into a rabbit hole with no end. It’s beyond baffling.

    I’m thankful for Jim. Might not always agree with him even as a Labor person but at least I feel like he’s tethered to a functioning world.

  32. Of course the USA is a democracy. It has regular elections. It has alternation of Governments. If a Government loses an election according to the agreed process it goes quietly, barring one recent exception, but even then it went, if not quietly. It has open and organised opposition, including in its legislature. It has free speech and free media.

    But it’s a less than perfect democracy, with: big money politics; rampant gerrymandering and voter suppression; and what appears to be a pretty ramshackle electoral process which is very exposed to political meddling. Then there’s its eccentric institution of the electoral college which, whatever its merits in 1789, now looks to be very unfit for the purpose of expressing the national will.

    Add to all this a highly politicised judiciary, the capture of many representatives by well-funded vested interests, an electoral system that appears to be entrenching the two current major parties forever and some pretty disturbing authoritarian tendencies in one if them, I think that “flawed democracy” is pretty apt description.

  33. Player One at 9.50 am

    It is fallacious to suppose there is only one “real enemy of world peace”.

    Mr Rich is a labour historian. He is not very aware of the history of US foreign policy. He ignores the significance of the Vietnam syndrome, a constraint on the use of ground troops by the US after the Vietnam war.

    The militarists in the US celebrated the 1991 war against Iraq as having “kicked the Vietnam syndrome”. In the long term, the political failures of the 2003 US/UK invasion of Iraq and the 20-year attempt to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan may have ultimately reinforced that syndrome.

    Note that Clinton, even at the height of US unipolarity in 1999, refused to countenance deploying US ground troops in Kosovo. In the end, NATO had to rely on the former Russian PM, Chernomyrdin, to force Milosevic into accepting Kosovo’s secession as a NATO protectorate.

    The silliest statement by Mr Rich is this:

    “The only hope for citizens of the West is that the leaders of the BRICS nations display signs that they may solve that problem of how to defeat America, even if it may take ten years.”

    Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are not an alliance. It is an excuse for inaction to suppose they could solve the US democratic deficit.

    The Vietnam syndrome resulted not merely from US military losses in Vietnam, but mainly from democratic opposition in the US to a false war.

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