Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find little change in headline numbers for Indigenous Voice support, despite the hardening in the Coalition’s position.

The Age/Herald has results from Resolve Strategic on the Indigenous Voice (hopefully to be followed shortly by voting intention results) finding effectively no change since it last asked in late February and early March, with yes steady at 46%, no down one to 31% and undecided steady on 22% (the total falling short of 100% on this occasion due to rounding). Respondents were also given the question without an undecided option, with the sample breaking 58-42 in favour. The accompanying report says a “rolling track of surveys over the past two months, using a larger sample size to allow a state-by-state breakdown, shows a majority in favour of the Voice in each state as well as nationwide”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

A second result on the Indigenous Voice emerges from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, as reported in The Guardian, showing 60% in favour and 40% opposed. However, “hard no” was up three to 26% and “soft no” was down three to 14%, while hard yes was down one to 32% and soft yes was steady at 27%. Essential had hitherto been tracking traditional personal ratings only for Anthony Albanese (as distinct from a separate series in which respondents are invited to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten), but this time there are results for Peter Dutton, who records 36% approval and 44% disapproval. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 51% and up one on disapproval to 36%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1136 – other results, including voting intention, should be available later today.

UPDATE: Essential’s voting intention numbers have both Labor and the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 34% and 31% respectively, with the Greens and One Nation steady on 14% and 6%, from numbers which include a 4% undecided component, down one. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down one to 52%, the Coalition up one to 43% and undecided down one to 4%. Also featured was a series of questions in which respondents were asked to rate Labor and the Coalition according to eight attributes, which produced an effective tie for “trying to divide the country” but was otherwise consistently more favourable for Labor than the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,218 comments on “Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

Comments Page 22 of 25
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  1. Of course, Ven “American Imperialism” as a global force for good got its first run with the Jingos in the McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt Administrations. The high point of all that “goodness” was the US Army’s practice if destroying villages (and whole village populations) in order to save them (from the dangers of independence) in the Philippines. Glorious stuff.

  2. Scottsays:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 3:40 pm
    National Anti-Corruption Commission to start in July.
    _____________________
    Can’t come soon enough if the Andrews Govt is any guide.

  3. I’ve returned today to read a good deal of whinging and whining from the normal protagonists who support parties that will never experience the responsibility of government. There’s a certain credibility gap from those offering the same criticisms daily who fail to understand that their denunciations ring hollow to the majority, it’s just background noise.

    Labor was elected to do exactly what it’s doing and to our utter surprise (not), the polls unambiguously reflect the voter’s support for the means and manner of government being undertaken. It is after all exactly why voters elected Labor. The population is entirely satisfied with measured, calm, pragmatic government, it’s what Australians want.

  4. citizen says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 2:27 pm
    “Dutton favours bipartisan approach on RBA” (Oz headline)

    Has he suddenly realised that opposing everything the government does makes the Liberals pretty much irrelevant?

    He must be smarting from the latest opinion poll results.
    —————————————————————————-

    Now just watch Dutton oppose whatever the government recommends. Leopards never change their spots and this one talks out of both sides of his mouth.

  5. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 3:53 pm
    Scottsays:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 3:40 pm
    _____________________
    Can’t come soon enough if the Andrews Govt is any guide.

    ———————————–
    LOL Taylormade , i bet Micheal Sukkar and the Victorian Liberal party would not agree with you , they would be the ones more likely to be facing National Anti-Corruption Commission into the red shirts affair
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-liberal-party-involved-in-rorts-like-red-shirts-says-conservative-mp-20201014-p56524.html

    A Victorian Liberal MP has accused the conservative political faction led by federal minister Michael Sukkar of rorting taxpayer resources to help win elections.

    A damning May 2017 email sent by upper house MP Beverly McArthur suggests the Liberal Party’s use of “taxpayer office” staff to do political work is identical to the “Labor office rorts we are campaigning on”.

  6. A-E
    ‘Opening up’ Japan, the capture of Hawaii, the progressive gutting of Mexico all figure. The conquest of the PI was particularly murderous.

  7. ‘testiculus’, Golden Smaug, or testiculi?

    I’m working on the basis that our politicians are starting from a very low base.
    😉

  8. Andrew Earlwood

    “Of course, Ven “American Imperialism” as a global force for good got its first run with the Jingos in the McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt Administrations. The high point of all that “goodness” was the US Army’s practice if destroying villages (and whole village populations) in order to save them (from the dangers of independence) in the Philippines. Glorious stuff.”

    I think you could argue it goes back much further than that, to the Monroe Doctrine in the 1820s and US policy to prevent European imperialism in Central and South America, whilst acting fairly imperialistic itself by assuming this was the USA’s “sphere of influence’.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine

    Arguably even worse was the undermining and destruction of “banana republic” democracies by US corporations with CIA and other US government assistance. In some cases like Guatemala and Honduras they all but bankrupted the countries. The involvement of US figures like John Dulles with the United Fruit Company was a notorious example. He had an appalling conflict of interest, while his brother ran the CIA.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Fruit_Company

    Whereas here in Australia US companies did not do that. They simply pay no tax 🙂

    That being said, I am no more anti-American than I am anti-French, anti-British or Anti-Spanish. I think British colonialism was the best of a bad lot, but all colonial powers have a few skeletons in the closet, and a lot more in unmarked graves. Spaniards and Belgians seem to have been the worst colonial overlords IMO.

    Ironically at first Filipinos supported US intervention there after fighting Spanish colonialism.

  9. “I’ve returned today to read a good deal of whinging and whining from the normal protagonists who support parties that will never experience the responsibility of government. There’s a certain credibility gap from those offering the same criticisms daily who fail to understand that their denunciations ring hollow to the majority, it’s just background noise.

    Labor was elected to do exactly what it’s doing and to our utter surprise (not), the polls unambiguously reflect the voter’s support for the means and manner of government being undertaken. It is after all exactly why voters elected Labor. The population is entirely satisfied with measured, calm, pragmatic government, it’s what Australians want.”

    So firstly, criticism of the Govt does not necessarily imply support for another party. That is a false binary without even the substance of a ridiculous strawman, loved by the usual idiots here.

    Secondly, while in a democracy that is functioning well the majority can have their way it does not make them right or opponents wrong, it just makes them the bigger mob. So no credibility gap outside your.post.

    Thirdly whether deliberately or in ignorance you conflate policy and popularity which are quite different things. A policy can be very popular, like the CGT discount, franking credits cash pension bonanzas, and also very very bad policy.

    Finally in what 538 would call a bad use of polling being preferred to Dutton does not necessarily imply endorsement of any particular policy. Nor does it negate criticisms of policy.

    Finally you know what does counter an argument that a particular policy is bad, astounding but it is arguments the policy is actually good.

    Where, like with the s3 tax cuts there are no arguments it is good policy, is because it is very bad policy.

    Is it actually popular? Who actually knows both parties in contention took that very bad right wing trickle down rubbish to the election.

  10. I think even Dutton should have enough awareness of the public mood to realise that opposing the RBA reforms would be political suicide.

    Still, if he wants to say “no” to that one, he has my full support.

  11. GoldenSmaug @ #589 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 4:10 pm

    ‘testiculus’, Golden Smaug, or testiculi?

    I’m working on the basis that our politicians are starting from a very low base.
    😉

    Undescended testes?

    definition of testiculus by Medical dictionary

    https://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com › testi…

    1. a testis in the normal pathway of descent but failing to descend into the scrotum; see also cryptorchidism. Called also cryptorchid or retained testis.

    😉

  12. That is all noted Socrates, but I am talking about the explicit concept of “American Imperialism” being positively championed as a force for good.

    First Teddy and the rough riders.

    Then Dubya (with Biden giving an enthusiastic rubber stamp)

  13. Australia has a bicameral Parliament because we are a federation. We seem to have at least partly modelled the Federal aspect of our Constitution on that of the USA. The Senate was meant to be a States’ house but it has never functioned as one. In fact I don’t think the USA Senate has functioned as a State house since their political party system became entrenched.

    Neither system is going to change any time soon.

  14. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 2:36 pm
    The CLC has NOT bought into the Price/Mundine/Dutton bad-faith bullshit about regional bodies being sufficient unto themselves when it comes to the Voice.

    Probably because they realise that a splintered, ‘local/regional’ group of Voices would never be able to come to a common consensus, could be played off, one against the other, by a federal Coalition government with malign intent.
    __________________________________________________________
    Well, who’d have thought that was the real reason the far right is opposed to the Voice?
    I suspect it is also why some Indigenous people in the anti-Voice coalition: Jacinta Price, Warren Mundine and Lidia Thorpe, don’t like it either. Perhaps they feel that a broad-based, popularly-chosen representative body will stop them promoting themselves as “leaders” in their own smaller communities.

  15. Has anyone checked the airtime the ABC has given Lib opposition spokespersons vs how long the gave Labor when in opposition.. I’m thinking the Libs have a 100% advantage

  16. Andrew Earlwood

    “That is all noted Socrates, but I am talking about the explicit concept of “American Imperialism” being positively championed as a force for good. ”

    Sorry I only read your comment at 3:51pm and went from there. In that case sure, the idea that American Imperialism was not only better than other imperialism but actually a “force for good” is laughable.

  17. The US left the PI with a functioning democracy.
    I await a similar contribution from China… anywhere… any time.
    DO.NOT.HOLD.YOUR.BREATH.

  18. Boerwar

    I should have clarified that IMO Chinese and Russian Imperialism are even worse than Spanish and Belgian Imperialism, if that is possible. There is no pretense of uplifting people in either. Both are a case of conquest, rule and exploitation.

  19. Talking about systems of government and upper and lower houses, it really should grate with some in NSW that people like Latham can get an eight-year term.
    And he can pull a stunt like this year when he resigns and then stands for re-election.
    I guess there’s no way to change that unless one of the major parties pulls off a McGowan-like landslide and wins control of both houses and reforms the system.

  20. Voice Endeavour says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 2:59 pm
    Shogun “The CCP might be a democracy of sorts. But I naively assumed that for a nation to qualify as a democracy the people were given the choice of more than one party.”

    Indeed, that is the model of democracy that you are familiar with, based on both the UK and French models of Democracy. And those models are quite commonplace, due to the UK and French habit of invading lots of places a while back.

    But it is not the only model of democracy.

    The Ancient Greeks got by with 0 parties in their democracy.

    USA has no legal limit but practically limits to 2.

    Aus has no legal or real practical limits and we have more than 2 parties.

    Chinese/North Korean/Soviet Democracy is A FORM of democracy.
    _________________________________________________________
    Saying there are different types of democracy is like saying there are different types of human rights.
    Maybe no state has pure democracy, perhaps it should be said that some states are more democratic than others.
    The United States is obviously more democratic than China or North Korea, because there are regular elections in which the people can select their representatives.
    In the other two countries, there is only one legal party whose executive is largely answerable only to itself. They also have little, if any, in the way of independent courts and the authorities can pretty well arrest and imprison people at will.
    Australia is obviously more democratic than the United States, as we don’t have systemic voter suppression and our federal system of government is directly representative of the voters.
    The United States is a flawed democracy, whereas China and North Korea are not democratic at all. The United States has the constitutional capacity for improvement. I see no evidence China and North Korea do.

  21. yabba @ #587 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 4:04 pm

    C@tmomma @ #195 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 2:30 pm

    yabba @ #538 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 2:23 pm

    C@tmomma @ #168 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 1:31 pm

    Oh noes! yabba will be outraged! 😆

    North

    Puerile

    North East, maybe? Ask Confessions. You would want to be sure. Otherwise, Oh noes! You might make a continuing fool of yourself, stating strong views based on little relevant knowledge.

    You mean like you did today? Though as you believe everything you say, you will no doubt disagree. 🙄

    You do realise, yabba, by singling myself and Confessions out for your preposterous ridicule, you are exposing yourself as nothing more than an antediluvian chauvinist? Although, I had already figured that out with the way you just talk over women when in their company.

    Look, I know that you are jonesing, yabba, for someone to continue one of your interminable abuse dramas with, but I’m sorry to say that that person will no longer be me as I will never mention your name again and just let your ridiculous pronouncements, like the one today @ 10.31am, quoting a very one-sided view of Chinese maritime facilities, which was a doozy, go through to the keeper. Get back to me with a list of Chinese commercial ports on ’99 Year Leases’ or deep water ports that could be transformed from commercial to military should the owners of the facilities so desire.

    Or there’s this:

    The PLA has been seeking to establish a base in Panama since China’s investment company Hutchison Whampoa won concessions to operate two ports there in 1999, and in El Salvador since plans for a mega-project in La Unión were announced in 2018, L21 reported.

    Concerns that Beijing could use strategic ports to host Chinese warships increased when Uruguay’s General Assembly approved the implementation of joint defense efforts with China, the SFS report indicates.

    China has been building its navy up for decades to protect its interests worldwide. Chinese port terminals have commercial value but are also “triple use” in that they can serve for logistics support, intelligence gathering, and as options for future military bases, Chilean news site Mundo Marítimo reported.

    “[Chinese] investments in port and airport infrastructure, although civilian in nature, are marked with a stamp of military hegemony […], establishing limitations to the country’s authorities on the strategic projects developed,” Pou said.

    An example is Djibouti, located at the entrance to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, Argentine financial site Más Inversiones reported. There, China built its first overseas military base.

    The Chinese naval base in the Horn of Africa is steadily increasing its capacity with as many as 2,000 military personnel with arms, munitions, and armored combat vehicles, the Associated Press reported. China is also eager to put boots on the ground in ports in the Gulf of Guinea and Angola, AP reported.

    Also of concern is Beijing’s increasing use of satellite ground stations in Latin America, SFS noted. Advancing China’s space program is a priority for its President Xi Jinping, who seeks to make his country a space power, Reuters reported.

    “China cajoles [Latin America] and welcomes places where there is little capital flowing […] to have a monopoly of certain maritime routes; and that, in itself, is an advantage in military strategic terms,” Pou concluded.

    https://dialogo-americas.com/articles/chinas-network-of-ports-grows-in-latin-america/

    But, yeah, ‘just ‘Djibouti, huh?

    There are none so blind as those who do not see, yabba. But still worse are those who lamely ridicule those that can see with clear-eyed vision.

  22. “The United States is a flawed democracy, whereas China and North Korea are not democratic at all. The United States has the constitutional capacity for improvement. I see no evidence China and North Korea do.”

    One-party rule by the Communist Party of China is constitutionally enshrined in the Chinese constitution, so there is no constitutional capacity for improvement short of the government rewriting the entire constitution to cause its own demise. As for the North Korean constitution, I don’t know and I don’t care.

  23. The CLC which essentially represents most of Price’s indigenous voters has just canned her. Mundine is self-appointed. Thorpe is an. appointee of Blocker Bandt and has, at
    best, tenuous claims to representative legitimacy.
    The Voice is a major personal political risk to all of them.

  24. Gratifying to see the LNP is still out of touch on EV’s.. yep gotta make sure diesel is still the first choice ..

    “Genuine consumer choice for new vehicle and fuel technologies is key. We want to ensure Australian motorists can choose the vehicle that’s right for them – whether that’s electric, hybrid, petrol, diesel or hydrogen.

    “We don’t want to see the costs of vehicles go up, nor do we want Australians to be financially disadvantaged based on where they live, what they earn, the work they do or their unique way of life.”

  25. None of your Beeswax says :

    I can think of no Government in Australian history, including Morrison, or Whitlam even with hostile State goverments, that would have been called to the people after 3 years….but it is a safeguard to protect against tyranny and corruption at Marcos levels, and in any case the will of the people will be manifest at said election.

    So the afore-mentioned benefits of 4 year terms are available, with a safeguard, and a referal to the people under extraordinary circumstances…..Feel free to shoot my musings down.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    3 years is long enough, unless your side is in power.
    In QLD ,when we still had 3 year terms, we had an LNP premier in Campbell Newman who in less than 3 years SACKED 14,000 public servants and was on a mission to sack 11,000 more before the voters of QLD woke up to themselves and voted in Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk in a Labor government and has been there ever since.
    I bet that every one of QLDs 200,000+ public servants are grateful that Labor now has a 4 year term and indeed has added 20,000 or more public servants on to our payroll.
    Not to mention prisoners in jail who won’t have to wear PINK JUMPSUITS, the idea which went out with Newman.
    Talk about a one term wonder !
    I saw him on the street the other day and it was all in my power that I didn’t abuse him.

  26. What was Thorpe doing blocking the Mardi Gras? The actual float she blocked came from Prime Minister Albanese’s electorate.
    Blocker Bandt has spawned Blocker Thorpe.

  27. C@tmomma @ #258 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 4:52 pm

    yabba @ #587 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 4:04 pm

    C@tmomma @ #195 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 2:30 pm

    yabba @ #538 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 2:23 pm

    C@tmomma @ #168 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 1:31 pm

    Oh noes! yabba will be outraged! 😆

    North

    Puerile

    North East, maybe? Ask Confessions. You would want to be sure. Otherwise, Oh noes! You might make a continuing fool of yourself, stating strong views based on little relevant knowledge.

    You mean like you did today? Though as you believe everything you say, you will no doubt disagree. 🙄

    You do realise, yabba, by singling myself and Confessions out for your preposterous ridicule, you are exposing yourself as nothing more than an antediluvian chauvinist? Although, I had already figured that out with the way you just talk over women when in their company.

    Look, I know that you are jonesing, yabba, for someone to continue one of your interminable abuse dramas with, but I’m sorry to say that that person will no longer be me as I will never mention your name again and just let your ridiculous pronouncements, like the one today @ 10.31am, quoting a very one-sided view of Chinese maritime facilities, which was a doozy, go through to the keeper. Get back to me with a list of Chinese commercial ports on ’99 Year Leases’ or deep water ports that could be transformed from commercial to military should the owners of the facilities so desire.

    Or there’s this:

    The PLA has been seeking to establish a base in Panama since China’s investment company Hutchison Whampoa won concessions to operate two ports there in 1999, and in El Salvador since plans for a mega-project in La Unión were announced in 2018, L21 reported.

    Concerns that Beijing could use strategic ports to host Chinese warships increased when Uruguay’s General Assembly approved the implementation of joint defense efforts with China, the SFS report indicates.

    China has been building its navy up for decades to protect its interests worldwide. Chinese port terminals have commercial value but are also “triple use” in that they can serve for logistics support, intelligence gathering, and as options for future military bases, Chilean news site Mundo Marítimo reported.

    “[Chinese] investments in port and airport infrastructure, although civilian in nature, are marked with a stamp of military hegemony […], establishing limitations to the country’s authorities on the strategic projects developed,” Pou said.

    An example is Djibouti, located at the entrance to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, Argentine financial site Más Inversiones reported. There, China built its first overseas military base.

    The Chinese naval base in the Horn of Africa is steadily increasing its capacity with as many as 2,000 military personnel with arms, munitions, and armored combat vehicles, the Associated Press reported. China is also eager to put boots on the ground in ports in the Gulf of Guinea and Angola, AP reported.

    Also of concern is Beijing’s increasing use of satellite ground stations in Latin America, SFS noted. Advancing China’s space program is a priority for its President Xi Jinping, who seeks to make his country a space power, Reuters reported.

    “China cajoles [Latin America] and welcomes places where there is little capital flowing […] to have a monopoly of certain maritime routes; and that, in itself, is an advantage in military strategic terms,” Pou concluded.

    https://dialogo-americas.com/articles/chinas-network-of-ports-grows-in-latin-america/

    But, yeah, ‘just ‘Djibouti, huh?

    There are none so blind as those who do not see, yabba. But still worse are those who lamely ridicule those that can see with clear-eyed vision.

    Whew. I hope you feel better after getting that off your chest.

    I simply posted a link together with a quote from that link, expecting comment from those that know something about the subject. I made no comment whatsoever about my opinion, since I realise that I have little expertise in the area, and would not venture one.

    My other post today was a comment on how bizarre the US Senate election process is, to which your contribution was a pointless, nasty, smart-arse jibe directed at me (Oh Noes!), after someone else pointed out a similar, much smaller problem with Tasmania, of which, of course, I am well aware. That problem, thankfully, is one tenth the size of problem (four times the voting power for Tasmanians vs 45 times the voting power for South Dakotans), and affects only one state. It still presented us with the canker of Eric Abetz. Yech!

    The 10 lowest population states of the USA have a total population less than one quarter of that of California alone, ( < 10 million vs 40+ million people) but they elect ten times the number of senators. Some democracy!

    It is clear that you are hyper-sensitive about the revelation of your gross local geographical bewilderment. I think that you should recognise that you may, just possibly, have similar blind spots in other areas, too.

  28. Today is another day in which 60,000 homeless people or struggling renters will be denied housing by Blocker Bandt and his Oppo- wrecker Dutton.
    sordid.
    mean.
    nasty.

  29. Sceptic says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 4:38 pm
    Has anyone checked the airtime the ABC has given Lib opposition spokespersons vs how long the gave Labor when in opposition.. I’m thinking the Libs have a 100% advantage.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    While I would be one of the last to accuse the ABC of bias, I sometimes ask myself the same question.
    I wonder whether they want to be seen as supporting both sides but have not added up their on screen times for each side ?
    I’m sure the ABC keep detailed, by the minute records, of their anti-bias reporting and I will accept that till proven differently.
    Media Watch usually allays my fears of any biased reporting.

  30. l
    Thanks. Another area in which the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments corrupted taxpayer funding – often for no other reason than to bowdlerize history or stymie climate science.
    Cross fingers that the Albanese Government initiates reforms.

  31. “Not to mention prisoners in jail who won’t have to wear PINK JUMPSUITS, the idea which went out with Newman.”

    @98.6

    When their current leader David Crisafulli lost his seat of Mundingburra in 2015. Even he said after the election that forcing jailed bikies to wear pink uniforms was stupid.

  32. Does the US really maintain over 800 bases o/s?
    This is bandied about as if it were a self-evident truth along with an implied corollary that the countries which host the bases do not actually want them.
    My guess?
    Nope to 800+ bases.
    My guess?
    The majority of people in most of the countries that host most of the bases WANT those bases there for national security reasons.

  33. Attempt to denigrate my contributions all you want, yabba, and shift the goalposts on something you highlighted but now is not something you agreed with, apparently, or something. It’s just making you look weak when caught out. And then to throw yet another puerile jibe at my sense of direction. Sad.

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