Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)

Two new polls find little change in headline numbers for Indigenous Voice support, despite the hardening in the Coalition’s position.

The Age/Herald has results from Resolve Strategic on the Indigenous Voice (hopefully to be followed shortly by voting intention results) finding effectively no change since it last asked in late February and early March, with yes steady at 46%, no down one to 31% and undecided steady on 22% (the total falling short of 100% on this occasion due to rounding). Respondents were also given the question without an undecided option, with the sample breaking 58-42 in favour. The accompanying report says a “rolling track of surveys over the past two months, using a larger sample size to allow a state-by-state breakdown, shows a majority in favour of the Voice in each state as well as nationwide”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1609.

A second result on the Indigenous Voice emerges from the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, as reported in The Guardian, showing 60% in favour and 40% opposed. However, “hard no” was up three to 26% and “soft no” was down three to 14%, while hard yes was down one to 32% and soft yes was steady at 27%. Essential had hitherto been tracking traditional personal ratings only for Anthony Albanese (as distinct from a separate series in which respondents are invited to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten), but this time there are results for Peter Dutton, who records 36% approval and 44% disapproval. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 51% and up one on disapproval to 36%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1136 – other results, including voting intention, should be available later today.

UPDATE: Essential’s voting intention numbers have both Labor and the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 34% and 31% respectively, with the Greens and One Nation steady on 14% and 6%, from numbers which include a 4% undecided component, down one. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down one to 52%, the Coalition up one to 43% and undecided down one to 4%. Also featured was a series of questions in which respondents were asked to rate Labor and the Coalition according to eight attributes, which produced an effective tie for “trying to divide the country” but was otherwise consistently more favourable for Labor than the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,218 comments on “Indigenous Voice polls: Resolve Strategic and Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 4:48 pm
    Talking about systems of government and upper and lower houses, it really should grate with some in NSW that people like Latham can get an eight-year term.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    All the more reason to get rid of the upper houses bullshit.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Rossmeg says :
    And he can pull a stunt like this year when he resigns and then stands for re-election.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    Seriously, You, Me and everyone else who votes is being made a fool of.
    Its our own fault.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    Rossmeg says :
    I guess there’s no way to change that unless one of the major parties pulls off a McGowan-like landslide and wins control of both houses and reforms the system.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 says :
    Just get rid of the anachronistic stupidity that is ‘UPPER HOUSES’ just like QLD did over 100 years ago.

    Talk about being over-governed, not only do we have 3 tiers of government we have a forth one who ride roughshod over the lot of them.
    Talk about unrepresentative swill !!!
    Sorry Paul.

    # 3098 for the month.

  2. Djibouti seems quite happy to host military bases for anyone who wants to – the US, China, France, Italy and Japan all have bases there.

  3. Steve777 says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 4:34 pm
    Australia has a bicameral Parliament because we are a federation. We seem to have at least partly modelled the Federal aspect of our Constitution on that of the USA. The Senate was meant to be a States’ house but it has never functioned as one. In fact I don’t think the USA Senate has functioned as a State house since their political party system became entrenched.

    Neither system is going to change any time soon.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 says :
    After we get the ‘YES’ vote for the Voice in October we can concentrate on a referendum to rid ourselves of the anachronism that is ‘upper houses’.
    Then maybe have another go at ridding ourselves of the vagaries of ‘ROYALITY’.
    Why don’t we simply group them all together and save a lot of time and expense ?

  4. Poor Yabba – you environmental vandal.

    It must burn you up (no pun intended) that the Labor Government EV policy is directed at supporting people like us doing our bit for the environment by buying an EV .. Strangely Labor is not too interested in vandals like you pushing around $2K heaps of junk.

    Who knew eh?

  5. sprocket_@ Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 6:16 pm:

    “As predicted by many, the Ukrainian counter-offensive is in the south towards the Azov Sea. Reports indicate it is commencing…

    https://youtu.be/vcIhH1Vmz8I
    =====================

    sprocket, thanks for this link. I’m now subscribing. What it underscores is how the transition from ‘before a counteroffensive’ to ‘during a counteroffensive’ can be quite gradual, and not necessarily accompanied by a blare of trumpets.

    [#2 today]

  6. sprocket_says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 6:16 pm
    As predicted by many, the Ukrainian counter-offensive is in the south towards the Azov Sea. Reports indicate it is commencing…
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    98.6 says :
    Good luck to them and I hope they repel the invaders.
    But its hard to believe that Putin will stand by and let it happen without increasing his manpower in that area.
    I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think Putin has really sent in his best troops and armaments yet.
    Its hard to believe a supposed super power country like Russia with a population of 143 million can’t overtake a country like Ukraine with a population of 43 million.
    HELLO ?

  7. An interesting suggestion here by a US defence commentator- that the 48 mothballed RAAF FA18 fighters should be given to Ukraine.
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/australias-mothballed-f-a-18-hornets-should-be-given-to-ukraine

    I support the idea. These planes had been replaced in RAAF service by F35s and so this has zero impact on Australian defence. They were going to be sold very cheaply to a US training organisation.

    This would require US approval but seems to have very little risk to Australia. We have negligible trade with Russia.

    Sprocket

    I hope that is correct about the Ukrainian counter offensive but I am surprised. I thought it was a few more weeks before the ground is firm enough to move tanks.

  8. I’ve spent quite some time today viewing (on various platforms) Rupert’s sad predicament. I think at his age he deserves to enjoy his dotage, yet not only has he ditched the love of his life, his reputation & bank balance has suffered immeasurably.

    But it gets worse! “Smartmatic” is suing Fox Corp for $US2.7bn; News Corp shareholders intend to sue Rupert & Lachlan (as directors) for breaching their fiduciary duties (the duty of loyalty & duty of care); & Fox anchors, who perpetuated the big lie, are being sued, as are Trump’s former lawyers, Sidney & Rudi.

    _____________________________________

    I think Albanese should’ve stayed mum re. Thorpe.

  9. Lars Von Trier @ #290 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 6:53 pm

    yabba @ #287 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 6:35 pm

    Lars Von Trier @ #280 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 5:57 pm

    Looks like C@t cleaned the floor with poor Yabba. We are amused.

    She made even more of a fool of herself, then pissed off. Just don’t mention North.

    Is dreamimg about a Merc making things bigger, L’Arsy?

    Oh Noes!

    Poor Yabba – you environmental vandal.

    It must burn you up (no pun intended) that the Labor Government EV policy is directed at supporting people like us doing our bit for the environment by buying an EV .. Strangely Labor is not too interested in vandals like you pushing around $2K heaps of junk.

    Who knew eh?

    Bullseye!

    Is dreamimg about a Merc making things bigger, L’Arsy?

  10. Electric vehicle sales in Australia have overtaken petrol-driven vehicles in the medium-sized car category for the first time on record, according to the peak motoring body.

    The announcement on Thursday follows Labor’s release of its EV policy backing new fuel efficiency standards, which the Coalition has cautiously welcomed, in an early sign legislation could be passed with bipartisan support.

    The Australian Automobile Association’s EV index revealed that from January to March 2023 7,866 battery electric medium-sized cars were bought in Australia, or 58.3% of sales in the medium-sized category. Internal combustion engines still dominate light vehicle sales in all other categories.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/20/electric-vehicle-sales-australia-overtake-petrol-cars-medium-category

    If the Morrison Coalition was still in power, this would not be happening. Somewhat torpedoes the same/same schtick pushed by the usual stooges earlier today.

    Which brings me to the Polestar 2 https://www.polestar.com/au/polestar-2/

    My Millennial son has one of the 7,866 EV units sold this year, and is off to Bali for 10 days with a group of friends. I get to mind the EV.

    First impressions are high quality look and finish, daunting heads up display (like Tesla), and one-pedal acceleration/brake. I think I can get used to the latter.

    Also, on parking (it has 360 degree camera) the challenge was how to turn off? There is no off button. So eventually I pressed the park button, got out and yes, it turned itself off. The AI smarts in these EVs is something else – it knew I was a new driver and offered to set up a profile for me. I said not now, but will next time as it remembers a lot about you, like what music you like, seat positioning, other settings.

    On charge, it says 71% charged and 270km range. Will see how that goes over coming days.

  11. Surprised there has been so little commentary on the RBA review here today! I had a shocker at work so have only really had time to read the precis’ on the guardian and ABC , and guardian blog posts and none of the detailed analysis yet, so take this with a large grain of salt…..

    In the main I’m quite pleased with the reported outcome, and I think Chalmers has generally done well here

    I think the decision to split governance from monetary policy is sound, and I’m very much in favour of less business and more technical expertise on the board. Although I’m keen to know whether currency and bond operations would fall on the monetary policy or governance side, I sincerely hope it’s the former

    I also wholeheartedly agree with making the general economic prosperity of Australians (the current 3rd pillar of the charter) an overarching objective and the elevation of full employment to be as important as price stability (inflation), although I do hope that the god awful and unmeasurable NAIRU gets the boot and that full employment is more clearly defined and something that can be measured and held to account

    I do think the greens (not sure if it was Bandt or McKim) had a good point though that the parliament relinquishing it’s veto (never actually used) over RBA decisions is a bad move, there’s a lot of power in monetary policy and I’m not comfortable with handing it over completely to technocrats

    I also think that it doesn’t address the problem of fiscal and monetary policy not working together. With fiscal policy remaining essentially political, and therefore lower taxes generally being the outcome, there’s a weakness in that.

    On balance though and I need to get more across the details, but it sounds pretty positive and an improvement on the status quo. I do think accountability is an issue though, and removing the parliamentary veto doesn’t help that

  12. Ukrainian military intelligence is certainly putting out the message that Russia accepts its winter offensive has failed and has therefore abandoned any plans to conquer more Ukrainian territory for the foreseeable future:

    “Russian forces are moving to an overall strategic defense posture following a failed winter offensive, Andriy Yusov, spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence agency HUR, said on national television on April 20.

    “The Russians have no intention of replicating the attempts we witnessed after Feb. 24 last year, but that does not mean the enemy is defeated or that it no longer poses a danger to Ukraine,” Yusov said.

    “There is still a large amount of manpower, mobilization potential, and equipment, albeit outdated.”

    According to Yusov, the most combat-ready part of the Russian military has already been eliminated in Ukraine.

    Holding onto Donetsk Oblast remains the Russian military’s “maniacal goal,” Yusov added.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/military-spokesperson-russia-moving-to-strategic-defense/

    If that is indicative of both Moscow’s and Kyiv’s thinking about the state of the battlefield, then Ukraine has already retaken the initiative in this war. If this is so, then the only question which remains to be settled on the battlefield is how much of its own territory can Ukraine liberate before NATO’s willingness to continue supporting them is exhausted. Clearly, the more potent the weapons systems Ukraine obtains, the larger this liberated territory can be.

    [#3 today]

  13. Sprocket

    Have fun in the Polestar EV! We have really enjoyed driving our Leaf.

    After three months I still haven’t worked out half the display functions.

  14. Pageboi

    “ Surprised there has been so little commentary on the RBA review here today!”

    No arguments from me on the RBA review. A good set of reforms and frankly long overdue.

    My winetasting with friends beckons. Good evening all 🙂

  15. Mavis
    I had a laugh today in your absence when reading Murdoch Sky News After Dark Rowan Dean good friend of Barry Humphries recently visited Humphries in hospital.
    Reinforces my previous informed opinion of Humphries.

  16. Enough Already

    If the coming offensive stops at the pre-February 24, 2022 borders – which the Western backers may push for – it makes a complete mockery of the last 18 months of war and destruction. What was it for?

    I hope the settlement and reparations for Ukraine somehow compensates for this Putin folly. And clearly Putin will need to be replaced.

  17. Another thing I’ll give some kudos to Labor is the review of the PRRT. No details yet but this is an area absolutely ripe for reform, and in line with the ALP election promise to tighten multinational tax avoidance. We should be earning Qatar dollars for our gas exports, so I really hope that Madeleine king is let nowhere near this policy (after the massive fail of the gas price intervention) and that Chalmers drives this one , but some encouraging noises nonetheless

  18. Pondering the YES vote today. It’s a sad bit of irony that the NT will not be counted in the referendum as a state. Part of me thinks that if this fails by a state. That the turn around position from the government should be to seek making the ACT and NT States to enable them to be part of the parties.

    Voters in the Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory have only had the right to vote in constitutional referendums since an amendment to the Australian Constitution was passed in 1977. Territory voters are counted towards the national total but the territories do not count as states for the purpose of the requirement for a majority of states.

    ^^^ This, needs fixing. Where are you pocock?

  19. Edward/Edwina/Lars cruising for another victim this arvo. Bad day at Menzies House flogging a dead horse by the name of Dutton?

  20. Dr John:

    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 7:14 pm

    I’ve always thought Humphries is to Right of the centre. He has, however, made a mint from his facade.

  21. Making the ACT a state may be problematic. Section 125 of the Constitution:

    ” 125. Seat of Government

    The seat of Government of the Commonwealth shall be determined by the Parliament, and shall be within territory which shall have been granted to or acquired by the Commonwealth, and shall be vested in and belong to the Commonwealth, and shall be in the State of New South Wales, and be distant not less than one hundred miles from Sydney.

    Such territory shall contain an area of not less than one hundred square miles, and such portion thereof as shall consist of Crown lands shall be granted to the Commonwealth without any payment therefor…”

    The Capital can’t be in a State. It might be possible to restrict the Capital Territory to the main Government district and add a chunk of the mountainous areas in the South to make up the 100 square miles (256 sq km), with the rest becoming a state?

  22. Mavissays:

    I’ve always thought Humphries is to Right of the centre. He has, however, made a mint from his facade.
    ___________________________
    Barry isn’t going to offend half his audience by talking about politics. On the other hand, a few comments that attract some publicity isn’t going to hurt either.

  23. nath says:
    “I think Barry Humphries is mainly apolitical.”

    His characters Edna and Sir Les have a long history (all the way back) of joking allusions to Jews, Aborigines and ‘tinted persons’.

    How much of that is Humphries’ ‘alter egos’ and how much is your actual Humphries is up for debate.

  24. ” Barry Humphries is a known RWNJ”

    Of course Dame Edna is a traditional aspirational middle class Tory.
    Sir Les Patterson is National Party of course. Maybe Barry Humphries had prophetic visions of a certain Nationals leader.
    Barry himself never seemed particularly political, but I don’t know what his views are. I think that he and John Howard were fans of each other.

  25. Question for the ex service people here.
    The Reveille or rouse used at the ANZAC Ceremony for the NRL match is not the one I am familiar with.
    Provided by a Navy musician. Does the Navy use a different Reveille?

  26. Lars Von Trier @ #300 Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 7:09 pm

    We are pleased if we can bring a little cheer to your joyless existence yabba. Carry on.

    I have just spent four delightful days minding two of my granddaughters in and around an AirBnb on the NSW south coast, while they swam with, and fed the stingrays, and bounced on the giant bouncy thing playing ‘colours’ and ‘bulldog’ with the other kids, and walking along multiple beaches and rock platforms, making cunjevois squirt, finding octopuses, and collecting shells and pretty pebbles.

    I cooked cevaps, a big baked dinner with a boned leg of lamb, and spag bol, and made multiple tuna, avo, cucumber, capsicum, baby spinach, carrot and mayo wraps. I introduced the younger one to Starfall and helped the elder one with her recorder playing.

    Their Dad completed his search for endangered orchids on the 25 ha proposed development site for which he is doing the environmental impact and offset evaluation reports. He also rescued a young diamond python from a lady’s laundry tub. Released into the bush over the road.

    You farted around on here, intermittently spewing your bile. I think we can all figure out who has the joyless, Mercedes needing existence.

  27. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 7:57 pm
    nath says:
    “I think Barry Humphries is mainly apolitical.”

    His characters Edna and Sir Les have a long history (all the way back) of joking allusions to Jews, Aborigines and ‘tinted persons’.

    How much of that is Humphries’ ‘alter egos’ and how much is your actual Humphries is up for debate.
    ________________________________
    Humphries has used both characters as a parody of ignorance. It’s a style that is out of date now, but the type of prejudice he was portraying was a reflection of Australian society, not an endorsement.

  28. Another Liberal breaks ranks with the embattled Dutton…


    Victorian MP Russell Broadbent reportedly told ABC radio on Thursday that he didn’t agree with the official Liberal decision to advocate for local and regional Indigenous voices but not a national Voice.

    “I think on Indigenous issues you need to hear Indigenous voices,” he said.

    “[Opposition Leader Peter Dutton] has said we’re going to have local input and then we’re going to have regional input.

    “I thought the next step would automatically be that you’d have national input. So there’s a difference there to what the party is proposing.

    “But that’s just me. It’s just a bigger issue for me.”

    Mr Broadbent said Indigenous people nationwide were “broadly at the bottom end of the pecking order and that’s where they’ve been for a long time”.

    “It’s actually about the relationship with Indigenous people and what is the core problem…. The definition of insanity to me is to keep doing what you’ve been doing for no result, for billions and billions of dollars spent for no better result.” ,/I.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2023/04/20/jacinta-price-voice-approach/

  29. Steve777says:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 8:02 pm
    ” Barry Humphries is a known RWNJ”

    Of course Dame Edna is a traditional aspirational middle class Tory.
    Sir Les Patterson is National Party of course.
    ______________
    Les Patterson was conceived when Barry met a Labor party Mayor in Sydney back in the 60s.

  30. Yabba I have some concerns.

    You seem to make all of the decisions for your grown kids including deciding their accomodation arrangements and what cars they drive.

    This airbnb post suggests you also decide the holidays , what they eat and end up controlling these too.

    I think its a little unhealthy, controlling a grown child like this. Your thoughts?

  31. I refuse to remain on this site when Patterson is criticised, his tenure as Chairman of the Australian Cheese Board is a credit to him though I doubt Confessions agrees.

  32. Some Barry Humphries views on life..

    Humphries also complained to the Telegraph about the “new puritanism” of political correctness, which he said meant that he often had to explore controversial issues through his on-stage alter egos, such as Sir Les Patterson, his dipsomaniac Australian diplomat. “Les can say what he likes, I can say: ‘I disapprove of what Edna said the other night.'”

    He claimed that a friend, a former Nazi, had said that Adolf Hitler would have “adored” him. “I had a Nazi friend, repentant, he wrote a book about his time in the SS. When he died his widow said amongst his last words were: ‘Zat Barry Humphries, ze Fuhrer would have adored him.'” Asked why, he replied: “I have no idea. It’s hypothetical, since Hitler never actually met me, but I thought it would make a great strapline on a book.”

    Humphries insisted that he was not particularly right-wing, saying: “I don’t know anything about politics at all. But the far Left is so conservative, paradoxically, inflexible, doctrinaire and humourless. You can’t describe the world as it is any more.”

  33. Mavissays:
    Thursday, April 20, 2023 at 8:14 pm
    I refuse to remain on this site when Patterson is criticised, his tenure as Chairman of the Australian Cheese Board is a credit to him though I doubt Confessions agrees.
    _________
    In London he often carried a slab of Tasmanian Bree in his pants.

  34. And…

    Barry Humphries has made a career out of playing a woman, having first performed as his on-stage alter ego Dame Edna Everage 60 years ago.

    But now the comedian has risked the wrath of the transgender community, after telling The Daily Telegraph that people who undergo gender reassignment surgery are merely “mutilated men”, and labelling Caitlyn Jenner, who was formerly known as the Olympic athlete Bruce Jenner, a “publicity-seeking ratbag”.
    ….
    In an interview with Radio Times, also published today, Humphries made further controversial comments, this time about race. He told the magazine: “Why do you think Downton Abbey is so popular in the States? Because there are no black people in it.” He added: “Imagine if the BBC tried to do Till Death Us Do Part again today, with Alf Garnett ranting against black people? It couldn’t be done.”
    …..
    Stonewall, the campaigning organisation, criticised the comedian’s remarks. A spokesman said: “Views and comments like these are dangerous and hurtful, and they promote hatred. People are entitled to their views, but when those views are hurtful or dangerous, they should expect to be challenged.

    “Celebrating anyone who is homophobic, biphobic or transphobic sends a very damaging message that views like this are OK. They’re not. Trans people need and deserve acceptance and equality – not hatred. We would urge him to do the right thing and apologise.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/barry-humphries-interview-offends-just-about-everybody-20160106-gm0439

  35. Sprocket, surely you can see why Humphries would be against political correctness, as is every comedian on the planet by the way.

    Humphries is a dadaist. And the more absurdism he can introduce, for example his idea that Hitler would love him, the better he is practicing his artform.

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