Newspoll breakdowns: February to April (open thread)

Demographic fine detail from Newspoll suggests a widening of the age divide and a surge for Labor in Victoria.

The Australian today brings the latest Newspoll state and demographic breakdowns, which accumulate results from the three Newspolls conducted since early February. This is the second such set of results since the election, the first accumulating results from July through to December last year. Labor’s headline lead on voting intention has been fairly consistent through both periods, but the breakdowns offer at least a suggestion of movement beneath the surface, most notably with respect to age: the latest results have Labor up five among the 18-to-34 cohort to 43%, but down four among 65-plus to 31%. It may also be noteworthy that the biggest change at state level is a gain by Labor at the Greens’ expense in Victoria, where the two parties are respectively up four to 41% and down two to 11%.

Labor remains strongest in Victoria, where its lead is 58-42 (out from 57-43 in the previous quarter and 54.8-45.2 at the election) and weakest in Queensland, where it is 50-50 (51-49 to the Coalition in the previous survey period and 54.0-46.0 at the election). In between are South Australia on 56-44 (57-43 in the last period and 54.0-46.0 at the election), New South Wales on 55-45 (unchanged, 51.4-48.6 at the election) and Western Australia on 55-45 (53-47 last time, 55.0-45.0 at the election). Anthony Albanese’s ratings reflect the pattern on voting intention; Peter Dutton’s ratings are fair in New South Wales, middling in Queensland and under water elsewhere.

The polls were conducted at intervals from February 1 to April 3 from a combined sample of 4756. The various voting intention results are now incorporated in the poll data feature on BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns: February to April (open thread)”

Comments Page 23 of 23
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  2. ”
    Ashasays:
    Monday, April 17, 2023 at 9:49 pm
    Has anyone asked why there were news cameras at a Melbourne strip club at 3 in the morning?

    I could be wrong, but I figured the footage was filmed either by bystanders or the people she got into the altercation with.
    ”

    Yes. Then that person gave the footage to Ch7.

  3. If debt and deficit are problems, we could, say:

    – Get rid of Stage 3
    – Get rid of negative gearing
    – Get rid of the capital gains tax discount
    – get rid of excess franking credits
    – do to “private” schools what the Coalition did to Tertiary Education. Private schools should be a niche for the wealthy and the religious
    – have a very close look at family trusts
    – have a very close look at the rorts built into the tax system like novated leases
    – try to restore the national super system to its original purpose, which wasn’t a tax shelter for the wealthy. Or maybe heavily wind back concessions for super and just do what NZ does, pay the pension (fully taxable) to everyone who meets age and residency qualifications.

    This couldn’t be done 2014 budget style. They would mostly have to be phased in. But if we can make a start on unwinding the vandalism of Howard, Costello and their successors we’d sort out any issues with debt and deficit.

    Problem fixed.

  4. Good post Dr Doolittle (9.52).

    The problem?

    No cut through.

    We need some Keating anger to stop the torpid acceptance of this shift in Australian policy. This dangerous, reckless … nah … existential gambit.

  5. Oh yes Fred, the NPC address was soo smooth. Like an old single malt whiskey. May its easy shibboleths disguise its inherent contradictions and gently guide you to sleep sweet prince.

  7. AE
    It does you no credit to claim Penny Wong’s speech is a nothing burger. It lays down Labors strategy in great detail.

  9. Yes it does Fred.

    20 months and a change of government later ‘the thinking’ is replete with contradictions and double speak hidden under a thick coat of treacle.

    I do not claim Wong’s speech is a nothing burgher. It is much worse than that. It represents a paralysis of critical thinking in Canberra across the board. We are well and truly fucked.


  10. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, April 17, 2023 at 10:12 pm

    Oh yes Fred, the NPC address was soo smooth. Like an old single malt whiskey. May its easy shibboleths disguise its inherent contradictions and gently guide you to sleep sweet prince.

    That is her job, she does it well, doesn’t she.


  11. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, April 17, 2023 at 10:24 pm

    Yes it does Fred.

    20 months and a change of government later ‘the thinking’ is replete with contradictions and double speak hidden under a thick coat of treacle.

    I do not claim Wong’s speech is a nothing burgher. It is much worse than that. It represents a paralysis of critical thinking in Canberra across the board. We are well and truly fucked.

    Out of interest what is your alternate policy? Penny Wong has laid her cards on the table.

  12. I accidentally saw the panel line up at the start of Q&A as I didn’t switch off the TV quick enough after Media Watch.
    I almost pucked when I saw that idiot Bob Katter walk on with his hat in his hand and place it on the desk in front of him.
    Why, would he bring his hat into a studio ? Did he think the lights were going to be too bright for his weasel eyes ?
    This idiot from far North Qld reckons there are no gay people in his federal electorate of Kennedy.
    The only reason they have him on the panel is for shock value.
    Then who should follow him out but Michael McCormack.
    They both are like two peas in a pod.
    Why would you have them both on the show at once.
    Neither of them are full quids.
    No wonder the rumours going around the ABC is that Q&A won’t be around next year.

  13. Andrew_Earlwood

    Yes it does Fred.

    20 months and a change of government later ‘the thinking’ is replete with contradictions and double speak hidden under a thick coat of treacle.

    I do not claim Wong’s speech is a nothing burgher. It is much worse than that. It represents a paralysis of critical thinking in Canberra across the board. We are well and truly fucked.

    ___________________________

    How else would you propose our foreign policy be laid out? Realistically right now we don’t have any other reliable partner than the USA even if they are less reliable by the day. I don’t think we have a realistic option other than reaffirming our existing alliances but also greatly building on our relations within south east Asia.

  14. Does anyone see where I’m going with this list ?
    Pat Farmer
    Jeremy Rockliff
    Bridget Archer
    Ken Wyatt
    Peter Gutwein
    Julian Leeser
    Hetty Johnson
    Greg Craven
    Please add to the list if you can think of others.

  16. I watched Penny’s speech at the NPC and she never missed a beat.
    No fear mongering.
    No war mongering.
    No talk of China invading Australia.
    No talk of any country invading Australia.
    Penny has visited all 36 nations in our region in 11 months, except Myanmar, some up to 5 times.
    Now that what I call a Foreign Minister.

  17. T minus 20 mins.

    SpaceX @SpaceX
    18m

    With a test such as this, success is measured by how much we can learn, which will inform and improve the probability of success in the future as SpaceX rapidly advances development of Starship

  19. NSW government delays budget after uncovering $7.1bn in fresh ‘financial pressures’

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/17/nsw-government-delays-budget-after-uncovering-71bn-in-fresh-financial-pressures?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16817330137165&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2023%2Fapr%2F17%2Fnsw-government-delays-budget-after-uncovering-71bn-in-fresh-financial-pressures

    “The Minns government says it has uncovered more than $7.1bn in fresh “financial pressures” since taking office last month, and will delay the New South Wales budget three months until September while it conducts a “line-by-line” spending review.”

  21. frednk says:
    Monday, April 17, 2023 at 9:51 pm
    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 17, 2023 at 9:49 pm
    …
    Mobile phone footage sold to 7 it seems.

    Now I understand, the curse of the mobile phone.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    Without the mobile phone we would not have had the Black Lives Matter protests or on a lighter note the
    we would not have seen the Karl Stefanovic and friends bash up in Noosa.

  25. NEWS: Judge in Fox-Dominion trial says “not unusual” to delay a trial by a day, offers no reason for why he pushed it to Tuesday

  26. NEW: Delaware judge Eric Davis just took the bench and confirmed the one-day delay in Dominion v. Fox News defamation trial. Davis said it was his decision. “This is not unusual,” he said. No mention or intimation of settlement talks

    Jury selection resumes Tuesday at 9am

  27. With a test such as this, success is measured by how much we can learn, which will inform and improve the probability of success in the future as SpaceX rapidly advances development of Starship

    Shorter version: “We’re not confident the whole thing won’t just explode”.

  28. Shorter version: “We’re not confident the whole thing won’t just explode”.

    “Failure is always an option.” — Adam Savage.

    Also, “Jamie wants big boom.”

  30. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, April 17, 2023 at 5:15 pm
    Let’s face it. Wongs speech today was Morrison-esque. All style no substance.
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
    98.6 says :
    I watched Penny’s speech yesterday and I agree that it was as you say “All Style”
    It may not have been full of substance like accusing China of wanting to invade us in 3 years time but thank God for that.
    When asked the question, Penny may not have agreed to join the US and go to war with China if it invades Taiwan and thank God for that too.

    I will however also say that Multiple Ministeries Morrison (MMM) did have a certain ‘style’ when giving speeches in that he spoke eloquently and usually had all the facts at his disposal.

  31. 98.6: “[Katter and McCormack] are like two peas in a pod. Why would you have them both on the show at once.”

    It’s Their ABC.

  35. Guardian Essential poll (4)

    VOICE:

    When no voters were asked why they oppose the voice:

    • 59% said it “won’t make a real difference to the lives of ordinary Indigenous Australians”

    • 41% said it “will give Indigenous Australians rights and privileges that other Australians don’t have”.

    Voters were split on Dutton and the Liberals’ motives in opposing the voice:

    • 52% accusing them of “just playing politics”

    • 48% think their concerns are “genuine”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/18/guardian-essential-poll-indigenous-voice-retains-majority-support-but-sees-opposition-harden

  36. Guardian Essential poll (5):

    “A majority of voters said Labor is “genuinely trying to make Australia a better place” (60%); is “trying to bring the country together” (56%); and “understands the issues facing women” (52%).

    “But 55% said Labor was “out of touch with ordinary people” …

    “The Liberals rated highly for being “out of touch with ordinary people” (65%) and “disorganised” (60%).

    “The Liberals rated poorly on “understands the issues facing women” and being “trustworthy”, propositions which just 39% of respondents agreed with.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/18/guardian-essential-poll-indigenous-voice-retains-majority-support-but-sees-opposition-harden

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