Click here for full display of New South Wales state election results.
Click here for full display of Aston by-election results.
Tuesday, March 18
Data entry for the Legislative Council count has been completed and the button will be pressed on the result tomorrow. The first preference vote totals on the NSWEC website are now final. The issue remains whether Animal Justice, on 0.4665 quotas, can outperform the Coalition, on 6.4885 quotas, to the extent that the last seat goes to their candidate rather than the Coalition’s seventh.
Sunday, March 16
I believe we have a final result from Aston: Labor 48,915 (53.6%), Liberal 42,402 (47.3%), a swing to Labor of 6.4%.
Saturday, March 15
Antony Green reports the Ryde recount has confirmed Liberal candidate Jordan Lane as the winner in Ryde, the recount increasing his margin from 50 to 54.
Thursday, March 13
A recount will be conducted in Ryde, starting on Saturday and continuing if need be on Monday.
Wednesday, March 12
Counting for the New South Wales was definitively resolved on Saturday, when it was determined that the Liberals won a squeaker in Ryde with 25,425 votes on the two-candidate preferred check count (50.05%) to Labor’s 25,375 (49.95%). Labor has apparently asked for a recount, but after two counts and a closely scrutinised data entry process, this would be a long shot even if the request were granted. That leaves the final seat count as indicated on my results page: Labor 45, Coalition 36, Greens three and independents nine. Unfortunately, the rest of my results are the initial counts rather than the check counts, as these are what appears in the media feed. The check count results can be found on the Electoral Commission website. However, the actual definitive results will be determined by the preference distributions, which will be conducted tomorrow and the next day.
Then there is the Legislative Council, where counting is still ongoing. The situation has fairly consistently appeared to be that Labor will win eight, the Coalition a minimum of six, the Greens two, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers one each, leaving the final seat to go either to Animal Justice or the seventh Coalition candidate. The Coalition are currently on 6.66 quotas (30.28% of the vote) while Animal Justice are on 0.47 quotas (2.14% of the vote), with the Animal Justice relying on preference to close a gap of 0.19 quotas. Kevin Bonham has a model that allows for the fact that most of the outstanding votes are below-the-line, which tend to be relatively strong for Animal Justice, such that the gap is estimated at 0.14 quotas. If the Coalition prevails, the 42-member chamber will be evenly split between left and right, whereas an Animal Justice win would tip it to 22-20. The Electoral Commission says the button on the complete count will be pressed some time next week.
The final stages of the Aston count are of purely academic interest, but you can continue to follow the latest results through the above link.