Click here for full display of New South Wales state election results.
Click here for full display of Aston by-election results.
Tuesday, March 18
Data entry for the Legislative Council count has been completed and the button will be pressed on the result tomorrow. The first preference vote totals on the NSWEC website are now final. The issue remains whether Animal Justice, on 0.4665 quotas, can outperform the Coalition, on 6.4885 quotas, to the extent that the last seat goes to their candidate rather than the Coalition’s seventh.
Sunday, March 16
I believe we have a final result from Aston: Labor 48,915 (53.6%), Liberal 42,402 (47.3%), a swing to Labor of 6.4%.
Saturday, March 15
Antony Green reports the Ryde recount has confirmed Liberal candidate Jordan Lane as the winner in Ryde, the recount increasing his margin from 50 to 54.
Thursday, March 13
A recount will be conducted in Ryde, starting on Saturday and continuing if need be on Monday.
Wednesday, March 12
Counting for the New South Wales was definitively resolved on Saturday, when it was determined that the Liberals won a squeaker in Ryde with 25,425 votes on the two-candidate preferred check count (50.05%) to Labor’s 25,375 (49.95%). Labor has apparently asked for a recount, but after two counts and a closely scrutinised data entry process, this would be a long shot even if the request were granted. That leaves the final seat count as indicated on my results page: Labor 45, Coalition 36, Greens three and independents nine. Unfortunately, the rest of my results are the initial counts rather than the check counts, as these are what appears in the media feed. The check count results can be found on the Electoral Commission website. However, the actual definitive results will be determined by the preference distributions, which will be conducted tomorrow and the next day.
Then there is the Legislative Council, where counting is still ongoing. The situation has fairly consistently appeared to be that Labor will win eight, the Coalition a minimum of six, the Greens two, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats and Shooters Fishers and Farmers one each, leaving the final seat to go either to Animal Justice or the seventh Coalition candidate. The Coalition are currently on 6.66 quotas (30.28% of the vote) while Animal Justice are on 0.47 quotas (2.14% of the vote), with the Animal Justice relying on preference to close a gap of 0.19 quotas. Kevin Bonham has a model that allows for the fact that most of the outstanding votes are below-the-line, which tend to be relatively strong for Animal Justice, such that the gap is estimated at 0.14 quotas. If the Coalition prevails, the 42-member chamber will be evenly split between left and right, whereas an Animal Justice win would tip it to 22-20. The Electoral Commission says the button on the complete count will be pressed some time next week.
The final stages of the Aston count are of purely academic interest, but you can continue to follow the latest results through the above link.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the election count(s). The main thread for general discussion is here.
Hi William
A keystroke error. The independents are nine not none
William also typo in “Labor will win eight six, “
Labor call for the recount in Ryde based on 1000 informal votes and 3000 other votes that weren’t counted for some reason.
Evan says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 4:47 pm
Labor call for the recount in Ryde based on 1000 informal votes and 3000 other votes that weren’t counted for some reason.
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If those numbers are correct, you would think a recount is mandatory.
Are we looking at 46 ?
98.6says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 9:54 pm
Evan says:
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 at 4:47 pm
Labor call for the recount in Ryde based on 1000 informal votes and 3000 other votes that weren’t counted for some reason.
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If those numbers are correct, you would think a recount is mandatory.
Are we looking at 46 ?
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98.6 says :
Confirmation this morning of a recount in Ryde.
My estimation is a 50/50 chance of securing one more seat for Labor.
Are we looking at 46 ?
Recount in Ryde – how horrible for both major party candidates. Nearly a month after and not done.
Not even three weeks.Try harder.
Recount in Ryde
https://thewest-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thewest.com.au/politics/recount-ordered-after-nailbiting-nsw-electorate-result-c-10332628.amp?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16813551703863&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fthewest.com.au%2Fpolitics%2Frecount-ordered-after-nailbiting-nsw-electorate-result-c-10332628
Is there a possibility of flipping the result after recount? How many times results flipped with 50 votes difference?
46 is much better than 45 in this case.
With Piper as Speaker NSW Labor needs only one crossbencher
No opposition leader elected after more than 2 weeks of election.
Don’t tell me Lars the numbers are so delicately balanced they need the Ryde result to be announced to resolve that naughty problem
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 1:00 pm
Recount in Ryde – how horrible for both major party candidates. Nearly a month after and not done.
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98.6 says :
Lars I think you’ve got it arse about !
Horrible for the Liberals, and double horrible if they lose on the recount.
Happy-go-lucky for Labor where they have a ‘second chance’ plus a ‘get out of jail card’ and live to fight another day.
Going from my recollections of recounts Labor has as much of a chance of winning as do the libs.
How long will the re-count take ?
What a coincident, my lucky number has always been 46 !
“46 is much better than 45 in this case.
With Piper as Speaker NSW Labor needs only one crossbencher”
Even better when one considers the plight of Gareth Ward, and the possible outcomes of that saga.
Assuming that he remains suspended from the chamber until the conclusion of his upcoming trial, with Piper as Speaker I think that would mean Labor would have a 46-45 working majority on the floor of Parliament.
I also note with interest the close race between Animal Justice and the LNP for the last upper house seat. Fingers crossed that Animal Justice prevails once the button is pushed next week. If they do, Labor will have both a ‘left wing’ majority for its socially progressive legislation as well as a potential ‘right wing’ majority (Labor, ON, Shooters, LNP and one other cross bencher perhaps) for other legislation that may not find favour with the Greens for example.
Another 200 or so postal votes counted in Aston have increased Labor’s lead by 29.
Labor now on 53.63% of 2PP – which will be very close to the final outcome.
Labor has managed to get 50.22% 2PP on postals.
Outsider says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 3:35 pm
Another 200 or so postal votes counted in Aston have increased Labor’s lead by 29.
Labor now on 53.63% of 2PP – which will be very close to the final outcome.
Labor has managed to get 50.22% 2PP on postals.
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98.6 says :
Much has been said about postals as to which party they favour but when I see that Labor has 50.22% on 2PP from the postals in the Aston by-election I’m convinced that overall and generally they would tent to fall somewhere within the margin of error in the 2PP in booth votes.
Obviously freakish things happen from time to time but trying to work out exactly why the NSW state election had this phenomenon, if indeed it was a phenomenon, I doubt we will ever know, especially considering our Australia Post delivery service is not like it was even 2 years ago let alone 4 years.
Then we have to take into account when did voters receive their postal ballots in the mail and exactly what day did they put them in the mail box. I know that I often have a letter to post but keep forgetting to take it with me or have it in the car for days as I drive past dozens of post boxes.
I know that my mail box is not picked up every day like it used to be and on the days it is picked up it must be posted by 12 noon.
So if I put it in the post box on Friday at 1 o’clock PM it may not get picked up till Sunday or even Monday.
AS to whether postals can deliver the 46th seat for Labor is immaterial now that all votes are re-counted, doesn’t matter when and where they came from.
when will minns anowse his parliamentary secretaries
The recount in Ryde will take place on Saturday.
Aaron newton says:
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 4:43 pm
when will minns anowse his parliamentary secretaries
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FFS can someone tell Minns to announce his parliamentary secretaries so Aaron can stop asking that same question every day.
98.6 asks :
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 2:13 pm
How long will the re-count take ?
What a coincident, my lucky number has always been 46 !
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Evan says :
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 5:10 pm
The recount in Ryde will take place on Saturday.
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98.6 asks :
Thanks Evan, but how long will it take ?
I’m thinking of buying a piccolo of champers just in case we get to my lucky no 46.
Aaron any news on the Parliamentary Secretaries?
Lars Von Trier asks :
Thursday, April 13, 2023 at 8:28 pm
Aaron any news on the Parliamentary Secretaries?
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I can see why they call you a STIRRER Lars.
I did have a laugh though.
Are Parliamentary Secretaries even a thing these days?
I wondered that myself, Wranslide, do they still have parliamentary secretaries in state governments?
The fact that the electoral commission accepted Labor’s recount in Ryde request tells me that there indeed might be irregularities in the initial count of votes, we’ll find out tomorrow anyway.
Evan says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 9:13 am
I wondered that myself, Wranslide, do they still have parliamentary secretaries in state governments?
The fact that the electoral commission accepted Labor’s recount in Ryde request tells me that there indeed might be irregularities in the initial count of votes, we’ll find out tomorrow anyway.
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Of course after the re-count we may find that the libs increased their winning margin.
I’ll put money on it that if the libs do win it won’t be by exactly 50 votes.
Has some stolen the parliamentary secretaries ?
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 2:01 pm
Has some stolen the parliamentary secretaries ?
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LAAAARRRRRRSSSSS ? *7%43+_).,#2%4!??
What is your prediction on Ryde, Lars, Liberal or Labor, and by how many votes ?
Totes in the lap of the Gods.
I would have thought the count would be accurate – so you need a bundle to have been added up incorrectly or something similar. So was there human error like that.
Otherwise the informals – its court of disputed returns territory – that was a formal vote type argument. Labor would need a net change of 50 on this score.
I dont enough about the arcane details to know what the underlying chances are.
What appears to be the final Aston result here: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-28791-197.htm
Labor ended on 53.59% of the total, including 50.21% of the postals.
It’s a very solid and satisfying win for Labor.
Yeah, the Aston result is quite remarkable, postals were much better for Labor down there than in NSW state election contests – the Victorian ALP put a lot more effort and money into the postal vote campaign for Aston than their counterparts in NSW?
98.6 asks :
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 4:16 pm
What is your prediction on Ryde, Lars, Liberal or Labor, and by how many votes ?
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 4:19 pm
Totes in the lap of the Gods.
98.6 says ”
Many on this blog think they are Gods !
Or at least God’s gift to Psephology !
Lars says :
I would have thought the count would be accurate – so you need a bundle to have been added up incorrectly or something similar. So was there human error like that.
98.6 says :
One would think the count would be accurate, so why allow a re-count ?
Lars says :
Otherwise the informals – its court of disputed returns territory – that was a formal vote type argument. Labor would need a net change of 50 on this score.
I don’t enough about the arcane details to know what the underlying chances are.
98.6 says :
I would think it is simply a recount of formal votes. But if it gets down to single digits then no doubt they will look at the informal votes and then it may go to the court of disputed returns.
Of course after the re-count we may find that the libs increased their winning margin.
I’ll put money on it that if the libs do win it won’t be by exactly 50 votes.
Its 6.07 PM on re-count day in Aston. Any results yet ?
Recount news – the Liberal lead has increased from 50 to 54 votes, the seat officially declared for the Liberal candidate Jordan Lane.
Sprocket will be disappointed – he doesn’t like the lean and hungry looking ones.
Trump would be asking ‘Where did those extra 4 votes come from’?
Has anyone heard any news about the parliamentary secretaries? Has Dr Hugh and Marg been appointed to something?
just because you have degrees doesnt mean your going to be a high profile minister there is a federal mp a former professor and has a phd yet is only a parliamentary secretarymcdermit is by all acounts a prity bad mp for his seat around prospect im sure he will all ways be a back nbencher
mark buttigieg being dayleys only suporter left after searle lost his seat and the etu defecting from right means buttigieg will be luckey to be preselected next election as no union will back him the cogie mp is also a dayley suporrter but based on his invizable start as aterney general dayleys corearis nelly finished